Why do "experts" always undervalue the Habs in their offseason predictions?

Discussion in 'National Hockey League Talk' started by Domi a favor, Aug 20, 2017.

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  1. Domi a favor

    Domi a favor Former "DDs not undersized"

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    Here's a challenge for the HFboards community :

    I'm challenging you to find any magazine, "expert" or professional website that has predicted the Montreal Canadiens to finish 1st in their division, for any of the last 6 seasons (including the current offseason). Do this knowing that Montreal won their division title for 3 of the last 5 years.

    I've done the same research myself, and while it's not exhaustive, the result is really mind blowing. How many expert have predicted a division title for the Habs over the last 5 years?

    Answer : ONE! Just a single one!! And a guy I've never heard about. Look at those predictions :

    2012-13

    What experts predicted :

    The Hockey Writers
    1- Boston
    2- Ottawa
    3- Montreal

    Bleacher report
    1- Boston
    2- Buffalo
    3- Ottawa
    4- Montreal

    The Hockey News
    1- Boston
    2- Buffalo
    3- Ottawa
    4- Toronto
    5- Montreal

    2012-13 final standings
    1- Montreal
    2- Boston
    3- Toronto

    2013-14

    What experts predicted :

    The Hockey Writers
    1- Boston
    2- Detroit
    3- Montreal

    Bleacher Report
    1- Boston
    2- Tampa
    3- Montreal

    The Hockey News
    1- Boston
    2- Detroit
    3- Ottawa
    4- Montreal

    2013-14 final standings
    1- Boston`
    2- Tampa
    3- Montreal (just 1 point behind Tampa)

    2014-15

    What experts predicted :

    2014-15"]The Hockey Writers
    1- Boston
    2- Tampa
    3- Montreal

    Bleacher Report
    1- Tampa
    2- Boston`
    3- Montreal

    The Hockey News
    1- Boston
    2- Tampa
    3- Montreal

    2014-15 final standings
    1- Montreal
    2- Tampa
    3- Detroit

    2015-16

    What experts predicted :

    The Hockey Writers
    1- Tampa
    2- Montreal
    3- Florida

    Bleacher Report
    1- Tampa
    2- Montreal
    3- Ottawa

    The Hockey News
    1- Tampa
    2- Detroit
    3- Montreal

    TSN
    1- Tampa
    2- Montreal
    3- Detroit

    2015-16 final standings
    1- Florida
    2- Tampa
    3- Detroit
    4- Boston
    5- Ottawa
    6- Montreal

    2016-17

    What experts predicted :

    The Hockey Writers
    1- Tampa
    2- Montreal
    3- Florida

    Bleacher report
    1- Tampa
    2- Florida
    3- Montreal

    The Hockey News
    1- Tampa
    2- Florida
    3- Montreal

    TSN
    1- Tampa
    2- Montreal
    3- Florida

    ESPN
    Out of 10 experts, 10 of them project Tampa to win the division

    NHL.COM
    Out of 20 experts, 17 project Tampa to win the division. 2 says it's gonna be Florida. And... tadam! You have one guy, the only one I could find in 5 years, who predicted Montreal would win the division. And he was right! Congratulations Rob Vollman!!

    2016-17 final standings
    1- Montreal
    2- Ottawa
    3- Boston

    And the trend continues this offseason. Despite underestimating the Habs massively for 3 of the last 5 years, I'm still unable to find a single expert who projects the Habs to win their division in 2017-18. They project Tampa, who just missed the playoffs and replaced Drouin with Kunitz. I've seen Toronto, who lost 14 games in a row against Montreal. I've seen Ottawa too. But nobody is taking a chance on Montreal, once again.

    So the question is : why are experts so often underestimating the Habs? Here's a few possible answers :

    1- Experts underestimate the impact of a star goaltender on the overall result
    2- Experts are shy about placing the Habs first, because of what they represent, and because this is a team loaded with emotivity, good and bad. They prefer to take a safe bet and place them 2nd or 3rd every year, so they avoid controversy.
    3- The Habs players and coaching staff have been greatly underestimated over the years
    4- Habs overachieved 3 years out of 5. I assume this will be a popular option, but it's hard to believe. Habs have the 7th best regular season record in the past 5 years. Such consistent success cannot be overachieving.
    5- Any other explanation?
     
  2. Glengarry Glencross

    Glengarry Glencross Bart > Janko

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    IDK man, this sure seems like a...

    C O N S P I R A C Y !
     
  3. amnesiac

    amnesiac Space Oddity

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    whats there to like?

    Lost: Radulov, Markov, no #1C, Plekanec is worse, Gallagher's a ?
    added: Drouin, Alzner, Hemsky
     
  4. Domi a favor

    Domi a favor Former "DDs not undersized"

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    My post takes more than 3 minutes to read and comment. Maybe you should take a look at it before posting childish stuff.
     
  5. Deficient Mode

    Deficient Mode Registered User

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    Habs forward group is greatly undervalued. Particularly Patch and Gallagher.
     
  6. kingsholygrail

    kingsholygrail None of this matters. Sponsor

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    Where should they be rated?
     
  7. wabagee

    wabagee Registered User

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    It's a coin toss division and Montreal is a mediocre team. Sad but true.
     
  8. Empoleon8771

    Empoleon8771 It's Sprong's Fault

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    Uh, they're really not that far off though. Predicting them to end up 3rd in their division with a playoff spot and have them instead ending up in 1st isn't "undervaluing" them.
     
  9. Domi a favor

    Domi a favor Former "DDs not undersized"

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    The whole point of my post is to show that experts have been wrong in the past 5 years. I'm not saying they are wrong this year, but I think it would be fair to expect a few experts here and there to project the Habs to finish first in 2017-18, considering they finished first last year with the same core, as well as 2 other times in the previous 4 years.
     
  10. Calad

    Calad Section 422

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    Because it gets them lots of attention, like this
     
  11. Pens x

    Pens x Registered User

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    Montreal hasn't iced an above average team in several years. Also no one outside of Montreal cares about the Canadians. Sooo not a surprise.
     
  12. Empoleon8771

    Empoleon8771 It's Sprong's Fault

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    Your theory was that experts always undervalue the Habs, which isn't true based on the information you provided. They undervalued them in 2012-2013, but that's really it. Projecting they get 3rd and they end up in 2nd or 1st isn't "undervaluing" them. The predictions were basically right on in 13-14 and 16-17, close enough to right in 14-15, overvalued them in 15-16 and undervalued them in 2012-2013. You're complaining about something that just isn't there.
     
  13. Domi a favor

    Domi a favor Former "DDs not undersized"

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    I think you missed the point. Unless you can explain how a below average team can have the 7th best record in the NHL in the past 5 years...
     
  14. Neil Hamburger

    Neil Hamburger Five Bagger!

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    It doesn't look like the experts "always" undervalue the Habs.

    In the 2015/2016 season, 3 of your experts projected them to be 2nd in the division, and one projected them to finish 3rd. They finished in 6th.

    I think the answer to your question is much simpler than your possible answers: the experts aren't very good at making predictions.
     
  15. EveryDay

    EveryDay Registered User

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    MTL have been the 7th best team in the NHL according to game won over the last 5 years. They were also 7th in pts last season.If they are mediocre does that mean that 24 teams have been mediocre as well?
     
  16. Domi a favor

    Domi a favor Former "DDs not undersized"

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    You're right about 2015-16. This was an epic collapse, but because of the injury to Carey Price and to many other key players, the regular squad almost never really played that season.

    And I partly agree with your last sentence. :laugh:
     
  17. Empoleon8771

    Empoleon8771 It's Sprong's Fault

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    The Habs are a mediocre team propped up by an elite goalie.
     
  18. Domi a favor

    Domi a favor Former "DDs not undersized"

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    An elite goalie who has only 2 Vezina nomination in the past 5 years. Sure, he's elite, but he's not the sole reason for the team success.
     
  19. EveryDay

    EveryDay Registered User

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    Why were they top3 possesion team last year and a top10 team for GA and GF at 5on5?

    Is it because of Carey Price?:popcorn:
     
  20. Pocket Dog

    Pocket Dog Registered User

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    Probably because on paper, the Habs are not a very scary looking team.

    Each of those years you've listed, Patches is the leading scorer every year. He's never amassed more than 67 points in his career. There hasn't been a lot of centre depth in those years as well, with either Plekanec or Galchenyuk leading the way with no more than around 55 points.

    If you look at a team like Tampa in those years, they have had the star power to scare their opponents on paper. It's been other reasons (injuries etc.) that have derailed them some years.

    It should be obvious why the trend is continuing this offseason. Look at your own forum. I haven't seen many (if any) Habs fans saying the team looks better going into this year compared to last year. Top two assist leaders are gone for nothing in return. The back end on paper isn't very mobile nor it is very offensive minded. Montreal will probably make the playoffs if Price is healthy, but it's the same story every year with this team.
     
  21. East Coast Icestyle

    East Coast Icestyle Registered User Sponsor

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    So, currently no centre depth (arguably no first or second line centre). Only key offensive acquisition was Drouin, who is replacing Radulov. Lost their best offensive and a strong defensive at that defenseman, gained an Alzner that many claim is trending down.
    Almost no real offensive threats on the blueline besides Weber. Oh, and Price could get injured or have a cold start.

    The horror, the horror!! These factors have been weighed and people out there don't think Montreal is #1 in their division, but still have them making the playoffs?

    Surely Tampa is worse, with Hedman, Stamkos, Johnson, Vasi, Stralman, Palat, Point. Toronto, with Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Anderson. Ottawa with Karlsson, Terri's, Stone, Hoffman, Phaneuf, Pageau, Anderson. The Bruins, with Rask, a young and coming dline, and the best line in hockey last season.

    Do You See where I'm going with this? Maybe people just... Gasp... Don't think Montreal is the best on paper?
     
  22. Empoleon8771

    Empoleon8771 It's Sprong's Fault

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    Well seeing how they were a .500 team and the 9th worst team in the season Price was injured for a ton of it, it seems pretty conclusive that Price is the sole reason for the team success.

    Why did they finish with 82 points in 2015-2016 when Price was injured for most of the season if they're not just a mediocre team propped up by an elite goalie?

    Fun fact, here were the two teams ahead of Montreal in possession stats last year: LA Kings and Boston Bruins. Oddly enough, both of those teams weren't very good last year. Maybe just looking at possession stats isn't an accurate way to judge the talent level of teams. Crazy thought. The Habs are middle of the pack in goals are are near the top of the league in GA because of their goalie, nothing else. They'd be a middle of the pack team with an average starter, aka a mediocre team.
     
  23. aufheben

    aufheben #ClaessonFanclub

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    Because the best team was Tampa. Edit: and Boston.
     
  24. Domi a favor

    Domi a favor Former "DDs not undersized"

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    Very relevant points there. Montreal has been lacking star power and top point producers. Teams with a lot of stars on paper are often overvalued compared to team with a lot of depth, but no superstars.

    About next year : I would take the Habs board as a reference. This has become a magnet for whiners and frustrated teenagers who want the whole management fired, and fans who want to have unbiased hockey discussion are mostly avoiding it now. You don't get the same negativity in the general population.

    Top 2 assist leaders are replaced by a much more promising one by the way : Drouin. And while I agree the D might be less mobile, it will also be more experienced and less prone to mistakes.
     
  25. EveryDay

    EveryDay Registered User

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    Because Condon/Tokarski were 30th in save percentage after Price went injured that year. Any average goaltender that season would have put MTL in the playoff.

    So Boston and LA are mediocre team according to you?
    What about MTL been top 10 team at 5on5 in the NHL last season? Its also not relevant right?
     

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