Why do "experts" always undervalue the Habs in their offseason predictions?

[Empoleon8771]

Because Condon/Tokarski were 30th in save percentage after Price went injured that year. Any average goaltender that season would have put MTL in the playoff.

So Boston and LA are mediocre team according to you?
What about MTL been top 10 team at 5on5 in the NHL last season? Its also not relevant right?

Yes, they are literally the definition of mediocre. Know what's more relevant than Montreal's 5on5 stats? Their overall stats, which puts them in the middle of the pack in goals for and only puts them high in GA due to Price.

 

[WatchfulElm]

So, currently no centre depth (arguably no first or second line centre). Only key offensive acquisition was Drouin, who is replacing Radulov. Lost their best offensive and a strong defensive at that defenseman, gained an Alzner that many claim is trending down.
Almost no real offensive threats on the blueline besides Weber. Oh, and Price could get injured or have a cold start.

The horror, the horror!! These factors have been weighed and people out there don't think Montreal is #1 in their division, but still have them making the playoffs?

Surely Tampa is worse, with Hedman, Stamkos, Johnson, Vasi, Stralman, Palat, Point. Toronto, with Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Anderson. Ottawa with Karlsson, Terri's, Stone, Hoffman, Phaneuf, Pageau, Anderson. The Bruins, with Rask, a young and coming dline, and the best line in hockey last season.

Do You See where I'm going with this? Maybe people just... Gasp... Don't think Montreal is the best on paper?

You make a valid point about next year which could be argued. But my post is mostly about the experts being wrong the past 5 years.

 

[Bleedred]

I feel like the Habs are usually overrated by many, but maybe not so much last year and since the blow up when Price was injured in 2015-2016.

I think they also got a whole lot worse this offseason.

 

[aufheben]

They weren't "wrong", picking Tampa and Boston were justifiable choices.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You make a valid point about next year which could be argued. But my post is mostly about the experts being wrong the past 5 years.

But they haven't been mostly wrong in the past though, your entire premise is flawed because they were either dead on or close enough in 3 of the 5 seasons your mentioned.

 

[East Coast Icestyle]

You make a valid point about next year which could be argued. But my post is mostly about the experts being wrong the past 5 years.

I ignored that part, because it's a ridiculous conspiracy based upon nothing. The same points about the teams in the division stand. Montreal just has not looked impressive on paper outside of Price. Why would they be put on top? And why are 2 spots considered such a discrepancy to you? Nobody predicted them to be last.

 

[WatchfulElm]

But they haven't been mostly wrong in the past though, your entire premise is flawed because they were either dead on or close enough in 3 of the 5 seasons your mentioned.

I think you missed the point.

A) One expert among hundreds predicted the Habs to finish 1st once these past 5 years

B) Habs finished 1st 3 times during that span

A+B= Experts have been wrong.

If the experts were dead on or close enough, then you would expect at least a few more of them to make the right pick.

 

[aufheben]

I think you missed the point.

A) One expert among hundreds predicted the Habs to finish 1st once these past 5 years

B) Habs finished 1st 3 times during that span

A+B= Experts have been wrong.

If the experts were dead on or close enough, then you would expect at least a few more of them to make the right pick.

This doesn't make sense.

 

[Cleatus]

I personally feel that they've had a weak looking roster on paper for years, but they always find a way to be one of the better regular season teams (*cough Price)... I guess they're just deceptive in that regard.

When they do make the playoffs, most of their best players underperform, and they tend to look pretty bad playing against teams that actually come to play.

Regarding this upcoming season, I think this is the weakest roster they've iced in a very long time (especially defense). I feel this is probably going to be the year when they get exposed, and think they will be a bubble team at best for a long time... Bottom feeder if Carey Price can't stay healthy or has a less than amazing year.

 

[Empoleon8771]

So you're cherrypicking 1 exact example where they were slightly off to complain that they're always wrong and they always undervalue the Habs? Okay. Because from what I see here, the experts picked pretty closely for them in 3 of 5 years, undervalued them in 1 year and overvalued them in 1 year. Predicting Montreal to finish 2nd and having them finish 1st isn't "undervaluing" them, at least not to the point which you're trying to martyr in here to.

 

[WatchfulElm]

I ignored that part, because it's a ridiculous conspiracy based upon nothing. The same points about the teams in the division stand. Montreal just has not looked impressive on paper outside of Price. Why would they be put on top? And why are 2 spots considered such a discrepancy to you? Nobody predicted them to be last.

Nobody's speaking about a conspiracy. That's stupid. All I'm trying to understand is why they have been underestimating their position in the standings.

There might be good explanations and other posters have suggested a few already.

If you cannot give an explanation on why they have been underestimated, maybe you can try the opposite : how could the Habs win 3 division titles and have the 7th best record in the NHL, if they are so mediocre on paper outside of Price (who haven't even been the best goaler in the league overall during that span)? Maybe you can find an explanation for that.

 

[EveryDay]

Yes, they are literally the definition of mediocre. Know what's more relevant than Montreal's 5on5 stats? Their overall stats, which puts them in the middle of the pack in goals for and only puts them high in GA due to Price.

The reason why they were 3rd in GA is not only Price, its because MTL dominate the game in possesion most of the time and their forward are great defensively. You should try to watch the game instead are bringing Price for every arguments against MTL.

 

[aufheben]

Nobody's speaking about a conspiracy. That's stupid. All I'm trying to understand is why they have been underestimating their position in the standings.

There might be good explanations and other posters have suggested a few already.

If you cannot give an explanation on why they have been underestimated, maybe you can try the opposite : how could the Habs win 3 division titles and have the 7th best record in the NHL, if they are so mediocre on paper outside of Price (who haven't even been the best goaler in the league overall during that span)? Maybe you can find an explanation for that.

Luck, circumstances like injuries, Price walking on water, many variables.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The reason why they were 3rd in GA is not only Price, its because MTL dominate the game in possesion most of the time and their forward are great defensively. You should try to watch the game instead are bringing Price for every arguments against MTL.

Nah, I think the 2015-2016 stats prove my argument wonderfully. It's literally an entire season of a sample size without Price and they were a bottom-10 team in hockey without him. Maybe Condon's save% was so bad because the team in front of him was that bad, and Price is just good enough to mask their issues.

 

[WatchfulElm]

I personally feel that they've had a weak looking roster on paper for years, but they always find a way to be one of the better regular season teams (*cough Price)... I guess they're just deceptive in that regard.

When they do make the playoffs, most of their best players underperform, and they tend to look pretty bad playing against teams that actually come to play.

Regarding this upcoming season, I think this is the weakest roster they've iced in a very long time (especially defense). I feel this is probably going to be the year when they get exposed, and think they will be a bubble team at best for a long time... Bottom feeder if Carey Price can't stay healthy or has a less than amazing year.

People will have to realize that the core has been pretty much the same during the 5 years span, and it will be the same again next year. Subban has been changed for Weber and one year of Radulov will be replaced long term by Drouin, but the rest of the core is intact. I fail to see how they could fall off a cliff suddenly.

That said, I don't mind the Habs falling under the radar.

 

[Shruggs Peterson]

Very relevant points there. Montreal has been lacking star power and top point producers. Teams with a lot of stars on paper are often overvalued compared to team with a lot of depth, but no superstars.

About next year : I would take the Habs board as a reference. This has become a magnet for whiners and frustrated teenagers who want the whole management fired, and fans who want to have unbiased hockey discussion are mostly avoiding it now. You don't get the same negativity in the general population.

Top 2 assist leaders are replaced by a much more promising one by the way : Drouin. And while I agree the D might be less mobile, it will also be more experienced and less prone to mistakes.

He'll put up numbers similar to Radulov I'm sure but Markov leaving with no clear replacement for his PP time and assists on the back end makes valuing Montreal as a weaker team than a year ago perfectly reasonable.

 

[WatchfulElm]

This doesn't make sense.

Luck.

Geez... who needs a troll when you have a moderator...

 

[Shruggs Peterson]

People will have to realize that the core has been pretty much the same during the 5 years span, and it will be the same again next year. Subban has been changed for Weber and one year of Radulov will be replaced long term by Drouin, but the rest of the core is intact. I fail to see how they could fall off a cliff suddenly.

That said, I don't mind the Habs falling under the radar.

Well if that's the case then why is there a thread complaining about them not being properly valued?

 

[aufheben]

Geez... who needs a troll when you have a moderator...

If someone bets Barcelona will beat Celtic, and Barca loses, it doesn't make them "wrong". It was the right choice either way.

 

[cgf]

Habs forward group is greatly undervalued. Particularly Patch and Gallagher.

Largely because it's not very good.

 

[WatchfulElm]

Nah, I think the 2015-2016 stats prove my argument wonderfully. It's literally an entire season of a sample size without Price and they were a bottom-10 team in hockey without him. Maybe Condon's save% was so bad because the team in front of him was that bad, and Price is just good enough to mask their issues.

You keep bringing back the 15-16 season, but you failed to mention that Price was far from the only core member of the team who was injured long term that season. Subban, Gallagher, Petry and most of the supporting cast missed significant time.

Also, as someone already said (but you ignored him), Price's replacement was not even NHL level. No team could win with abysmal goaltending.

 

[East Coast Icestyle]

Nobody's speaking about a conspiracy. That's stupid. All I'm trying to understand is why they have been underestimating their position in the standings.

There might be good explanations and other posters have suggested a few already.

If you cannot give an explanation on why they have been underestimated, maybe you can try the opposite : how could the Habs win 3 division titles and have the 7th best record in the NHL, if they are so mediocre on paper outside of Price (who haven't even been the best goaler in the league overall during that span)? Maybe you can find an explanation for that.

Their success has come from Price, one of Subban or Weber, Pacioretty, effective coaching (sorry to the haters) and random up seasons from players (see Danault).

Can't forget misfortunes of other teams. You really think a Tampa bay with a healthy Stamkos doesn't beat out Montreal in any of his injury years?

Often forgotten is also the fact that regular season teams are so unpredictable. Look at LAs roster and tell me why they deserve to. Be 22nd overall last year? How was Minnesota 5th in their division two years ago? In 13-14, the sabres literally won just 1/4 of their games. We knew they would be bad, but who could predict that?

 

[Deficient Mode]

Largely because it's not very good.

It is actually. Strength in depth. The total numbers of their top players don't look as good because of how much Therrien rolled the lines, but their per 60 numbers are great.

 

[WatchfulElm]

Well if that's the case then why is there a thread complaining about them not being properly valued?

Well I think it will take more than a thread on a hockey forum on Internet for perceptions to change.

Also, nobody's complaining. Just trying to find an explanation to a statistical anomaly, that's all.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You keep bringing back the 15-16 season, but you failed to mention that Price was far from the only core member of the team who was injured long term that season. Subban, Gallagher, Petry and most of the supporting cast missed significant time.

Subban missed 14 games, that's really not significant. Good teams are able to play through injuries, doesn't that say how weak your team is if missing Subban, Gallagher and Petry for like 70 games combined sinks your team?

Also, as someone already said (but you ignored him), Price's replacement was not even NHL level. No team could win with abysmal goaltending.

Maybe his replacement wasn't even NHL level because of how bad the team was in front of him. Condon put up a pretty solid season last year with Ottawa, so I don't think it's an issue of him not being a NHL caliber goalie.