Why do "experts" always undervalue the Habs in their offseason predictions?

[angusyoung]

Here's a challenge for the HFboards community :

I'm challenging you to find any magazine, "expert" or professional website that has predicted the Montreal Canadiens to finish 1st in their division, for any of the last 6 seasons (including the current offseason). Do this knowing that Montreal won their division title for 3 of the last 5 years.

I've done the same research myself, and while it's not exhaustive, the result is really mind blowing. How many expert have predicted a division title for the Habs over the last 5 years?

Answer : ONE! Just a single one!! And a guy I've never heard about. Look at those predictions :

2012-13

What experts predicted :

The Hockey Writers
1- Boston
2- Ottawa
3- Montreal

Bleacher report
1- Boston
2- Buffalo
3- Ottawa
4- Montreal

The Hockey News
1- Boston
2- Buffalo
3- Ottawa
4- Toronto
5- Montreal

2012-13 final standings
1- Montreal
2- Boston
3- Toronto

2013-14

What experts predicted :

The Hockey Writers
1- Boston
2- Detroit
3- Montreal

Bleacher Report
1- Boston
2- Tampa
3- Montreal

The Hockey News
1- Boston
2- Detroit
3- Ottawa
4- Montreal

2013-14 final standings
1- Boston`
2- Tampa
3- Montreal (just 1 point behind Tampa)

2014-15

What experts predicted :

2014-15"]The Hockey Writers
1- Boston
2- Tampa
3- Montreal

Bleacher Report
1- Tampa
2- Boston`
3- Montreal

The Hockey News
1- Boston
2- Tampa
3- Montreal

2014-15 final standings
1- Montreal
2- Tampa
3- Detroit

2015-16

What experts predicted :

The Hockey Writers
1- Tampa
2- Montreal
3- Florida

Bleacher Report
1- Tampa
2- Montreal
3- Ottawa

The Hockey News
1- Tampa
2- Detroit
3- Montreal

TSN
1- Tampa
2- Montreal
3- Detroit

2015-16 final standings
1- Florida
2- Tampa
3- Detroit
4- Boston
5- Ottawa
6- Montreal

2016-17

What experts predicted :

The Hockey Writers
1- Tampa
2- Montreal
3- Florida

Bleacher report
1- Tampa
2- Florida
3- Montreal

The Hockey News
1- Tampa
2- Florida
3- Montreal

TSN
1- Tampa
2- Montreal
3- Florida

ESPN
Out of 10 experts, 10 of them project Tampa to win the division

NHL.COM
Out of 20 experts, 17 project Tampa to win the division. 2 says it's gonna be Florida. And... tadam! You have one guy, the only one I could find in 5 years, who predicted Montreal would win the division. And he was right! Congratulations Rob Vollman!!

2016-17 final standings
1- Montreal
2- Ottawa
3- Boston

And the trend continues this offseason. Despite underestimating the Habs massively for 3 of the last 5 years, I'm still unable to find a single expert who projects the Habs to win their division in 2017-18. They project Tampa, who just missed the playoffs and replaced Drouin with Kunitz. I've seen Toronto, who lost 14 games in a row against Montreal. I've seen Ottawa too. But nobody is taking a chance on Montreal, once again.

So the question is : why are experts so often underestimating the Habs? Here's a few possible answers :

1- Experts underestimate the impact of a star goaltender on the overall result
2- Experts are shy about placing the Habs first, because of what they represent, and because this is a team loaded with emotivity, good and bad. They prefer to take a safe bet and place them 2nd or 3rd every year, so they avoid controversy.
3- The Habs players and coaching staff have been greatly underestimated over the years
4- Habs overachieved 3 years out of 5. I assume this will be a popular option, but it's hard to believe. Habs have the 7th best regular season record in the past 5 years. Such consistent success cannot be overachieving.
5- Any other explanation?

Nicely done!!!

I've pondered the same thing and believe its the intangibles that are not regarded in the correct manor. Its a team sport,yet many professional forecasters seem to look solely at individual ability and not an amalgamation of all assets.

 

[aufheben]

Apparently not

Tampa and Boston both made the SCF during this time, something conveniently left out of the discussion.

 

[La Masse]

One thing ive learned over the past few seasons with the Habs is to never underestimate them lol .You cannot evaluate them on paper because they always seem to get the best out of average players

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Maybe they are not undervalued at all. Maybe they are just a bunch of overachievers led by their overachieving captain Max

 

[nmbr_24]

When a team is in the playoffs then out of the playoffs then finishes first I don't expect anyone to get that right. They did a pretty good job considering how fragile of a balance Montreal seems to have. While Price is the guy who makes that team work, there are other guys on other teams that would have similar effect if they were injured or had a mediocre year. Every team is so close with the exception of a couple at the top and a couple at the bottom, I don't think it would be surprising if Montreal doesn't make the playoffs or if they finish first in their division. Same with Boston, Tampa, Toronto, and Ottawa.

 

[izzy]

they don't really

 

[krt88]

Why do you care? Anyone can make predictions. If you are confident in your team call a sorts book and put your money along side your heart.

Bet that Leicester City fan who £20 to win the title was laughed at but when he collected at 5000 to 1, he was the only one laughing then!

 

[angusyoung]

Maybe they are not undervalued at all. Maybe they are just a bunch of overachievers led by their overachieving captain Max

As a whole,they have underachieved in the personal stats column,but as a whole,they have flourished, except during the POs where they did not produce enough quality scoring chances that translated in to goals. This season will be a bit different though,improved defense and more offence.

 

[Boud]

Well since Price is one of the league's best puck movers and rebound controllers, I'd say he does help with possession, GA, and surprisingly enough GF.

You my friend understand life.

 

[angusyoung]

You my friend understand life.

....and see the picture why the habs do not need such a fleet footed dman.....

 

[firstemperor]

Bob Mackenzie has consistently rated Habs highly in his pre-season rankings for years now.

 

[Flair Hay]

We get it OP the Habs don't get any respek. Boo hoo.

That's life for fans of teams without a number one center. Even with Carey Price.

 

[Sol]

Well they suck. So what do you expect.

 

[angusyoung]

Bob Mackenzie has consistently rated Habs highly in his pre-season rankings for years now.

Maybe he knows his hockey

 

[firstemperor]

Maybe he knows his hockey

He did so in their down years as well.

 

[angusyoung]

He did so in their down years as well.

Maybe he's a Habs fan

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Because they're not a great team that has overachieved a couple of seasons because of great goaltending?


Seriously, they've never been a scary looking team on paper. They've basically never had a #1C and I cant even remember the last team to win a cup without a #1C.



Extremely overrated team because of the fan base behind them.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Because they're not a great team that has overachieved a couple of seasons because of great goaltending?


Seriously, they've never been a scary looking team on paper. They've basically never had a #1C and I cant even remember the last team to win a cup without a #1C.



Extremely overrated team because of the fan base behind them.

I don't know? For such a large and passionate fanbase. The Habs fans on this site are rather quiet on the Mainboard compared to other large fanbases. I have not seen many post in here which is surprising. Maybe they stick to their team board but this is my observation.

 

[LeafsNation149]

That centre lineup is all u need to know about that Habs. I'll be surprised if they even finished 4th in the division such a bad team

 

[The Winter Soldier]

That centre lineup is all u need to know about that Habs. I'll be surprised if they even finished 4th in the division such a bad team

This has been their supposed weakness for years now but they keep surprising people. As long as Plekanec is there, they are ok IMO. He is an underrated player IMO. But they do have strengths other teams do not have also. #1G and #1D being the big ones. In most cases this has compensated for this supposed weakness.