Why do "experts" always undervalue the Habs in their offseason predictions?

[WatchfulElm]

Their success has come from Price, one of Subban or Weber, Pacioretty, effective coaching (sorry to the haters) and random up seasons from players (see Danault).

Can't forget misfortunes of other teams. You really think a Tampa bay with a healthy Stamkos doesn't beat out Montreal in any of his injury years?

Often forgotten is also the fact that regular season teams are so unpredictable. Look at LAs roster and tell me why they deserve to. Be 22nd overall last year? How was Minnesota 5th in their division two years ago? In 13-14, the sabres literally won just 1/4 of their games. We knew they would be bad, but who could predict that?

I agree coaching has been largely underestimated.

And I also agree the misfortune of other teams is one of the big reasons Montreal won 3 division titles. Just like the misfortune of Montreal in 2015-16 is one of the reasons Florida won the title in 2015-16.

I also think Tampa has been greatly overvalued over the last few seasons. That's a team with a lot of star power, but they also have their weaknesses. Still have.

 

[WatchfulElm]

Subban missed 14 games, that's really not significant. Good teams are able to play through injuries, doesn't that say how weak your team is if missing Subban, Gallagher and Petry for like 70 games combined sinks your team?

The main problem that year was that most of the replacement players got injured too, especially on defense. So we ended playing 2-3 bottom AHL defensemen in our regular line-up. We had 15 different defensemen in the line-up that year, including notorious Joel Hanley, Darren Dietz, Victor Bartley, Jarred Tinordi, Morgan Ellis, Ryan Johnston, Brett Lernout, Greg Pateryn and Mark Barberio... That was ugly.

Maybe his replacement wasn't even NHL level because of how bad the team was in front of him. Condon put up a pretty solid season last year with Ottawa, so I don't think it's an issue of him not being a NHL caliber goalie.

Condon was a rookie back then, straight up from university where in never played that many games. He was ok at first, but then you could see the work load was too much for him, especially with the depleted defense. Stats speak for themselves. You can't win with such a bad save %.

 

[Master P]

Well Tampa had a ton of injuries last season. Getting a fully healthy team with a healthy Stamkos makes them a contender and above Montreal.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I think you missed the point. Unless you can explain how a below average team can have the 7th best record in the NHL in the past 5 years...

2 words

Carey Price

 

[WatchfulElm]

If someone bets Barcelona will beat Celtic, and Barca loses, it doesn't make them "wrong". It was the right choice either way.

Hmm no...

Logical choice maybe, but still the wrong choice.

If you play roulette at the casino and bet on black numbers and odd numbers, but it ends up being number 19 (red), that doesn't make your choice right just because it was more likely to happen. In the end, you're still wrong.

Though in hockey, what is more likely is a lot more subjective than that.

 

[Empoleon8771]

But in order to justify this thread to be made, they need to be more wrong than betting on odd and black numbers when it ends up landing on 19 red. Experts expecting the Habs to come in 2nd or 3rd and they come in 1st isn't egregious enough to even remotely justify this type of thread.

The Habs in the last 5 years have had an average spot in the division of 2.6. The experts have them at an average of basically 3 in those 17 predictions

 

[Deficient Mode]

If someone bets Barcelona will beat Celtic, and Barca loses, it doesn't make them "wrong". It was the right choice either way.

Imagine comparing a one game result with an 82 game result and saying they're the same thing with the same amount of luck involved.

 

[WatchfulElm]

But in order to justify this thread to be made, they need to be more wrong than betting on odd and black numbers when it ends up landing on 19 red. Experts expecting the Habs to come in 2nd or 3rd and they come in 1st isn't egregious enough to even remotely justify this type of thread.

Well it's summer, and I though this was a statistical anomaly that would generate interesting discussion. And so far it's been the case. If you don't like the thread, there's many others. Like the one about Leafs players getting tattoed...

 

[WatchfulElm]

Imagine comparing a one game result with an 82 game result and saying they're the same thing with the same amount of luck involved.

 

[Hynh]

Montreal won the 2013 division title after finishing 28th. Meanwhile Boston had won the division the year before and had recently won a cup. Montreal won the division by just a single point.

Montreal won the 2014-15 division by just 2 points despite Price giving them the best season of his career.

The 2016-17 division title was won after the Price missed 75% of a season with a knee injury and the team melted down without him.

We're not talking about the 5 time division champion Ducks here. The experts are making reasonable projections.

 

[aufheben]

Hmm no...

Logical choice maybe, but still the wrong choice.

If you play roulette at the casino and bet on black numbers and odd numbers, but it ends up being number 19 (red), that doesn't make your choice right just because it was more likely to happen. In the end, you're still wrong.

Though in hockey, what is more likely is a lot more subjective than that.

Isn't that what you're questioning? The intelligence of the experts?

Imagine comparing a one game result with an 82 game result and saying they're the same thing with the same amount of luck involved.

Unless you have some good evidence why people should have picked Montreal instead of Boston or Tampa, it is exactly the same.

 

[MessierII]

An elite goalie who has only 2 Vezina nomination in the past 5 years. Sure, he's elite, but he's not the sole reason for the team success.

Yes he actually is. This was proven when he became injured and the habs had the worst record in the NHL.

 

[Deficient Mode]

Isn't that what you're questioning? The intelligence of the experts?

Unless you have some good evidence why people should have picked Montreal instead of Boston or Tampa, it is exactly the same.

Difference between Montreal and Boston/Tampa is the same as the difference between Barcelona and Celtic? News to me.

The point of this thread is not just to question the intelligence of the experts, but to ask why the Habs are undervalued in general. Are you really defending the experts or are you claiming that healthy Boston and Tampa are better teams?

 

[aufheben]

Difference between Montreal and Boston/Tampa is the same as the difference between Barcelona and Celtic? News to me.

The point of this thread is not just to question the intelligence of the experts, but to ask why the Habs are undervalued in general. Are you really defending the experts or are you claiming that healthy Boston and Tampa are better teams?

Then why is it in quotes?

 

[Bleedred]

Well Tampa had a ton of injuries last season. Getting a fully healthy team with a healthy Stamkos makes them a contender and above Montreal.

Definitely agree, although my belief in Tampa took a huge dive after they signed Dan Girardi. I don't think they got got worse this offseason than Montreal did, but Dan Girardi will definitely lower a teams stock more than most any one player.

Montreal added a sieve of their own in Karl Alzner this offseason.

 

[Shruggs Peterson]

Difference between Montreal and Boston/Tampa is the same as the difference between Barcelona and Celtic? News to me.

The point of this thread is not just to question the intelligence of the experts, but to ask why the Habs are undervalued in general. Are you really defending the experts or are you claiming that healthy Boston and Tampa are better teams?

I would argue for both. Off season predictions are based off what experts see on paper and on paper, Tampa has more elite level guys than Montreal does. Hedman, Kucherov, and Stamkos look like a better bet compared to just Price.

I really don't see where the Habs have been so horribly undervalued that it's an issue. Experts being off by 2-3 places isn't ridiculous considering how close the Atlantic has been the last few years.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

whats there to like?

Lost: Radulov, Markov, no #1C, Plekanec is worse, Gallagher's a ?
added: Drouin, Alzner, Hemsky

This... Habs look worse than last yer.

 

[sepster]

It is the Canada to US exchange rate.

 

[Rodgerwilco]

I would argue for both. Off season predictions are based off what experts see on paper and on paper, Tampa has more elite level guys than Montreal does. Hedman, Kucherov, and Stamkos look like a better bet compared to just Price.

I really don't see where the Habs have been so horribly undervalued that it's an issue. Experts being off by 2-3 places isn't ridiculous considering how close the Atlantic has been the last few years.

Agreed... their predictions have been okay... It's almost as if OP wants every analyst to predict Montreal to win the division every year.

When it comes down to it, who really cares what the analysts say. The product on the ice is more important.

 

[WarriorOfGandhi]

because they are jealous of Montreal's success.

The Canadiens have 24 Stanley Cups, haters. Hate on that.

 

[Rodgerwilco]

because they are jealous of Montreal's success.

The Canadiens have 24 Stanley Cups, haters. Hate on that.

My sarcasm detector seems to be malfunctioning today... This isn't a real comment is it? lol

 

[Beville]

Because it's a PREDICTION.

What have Montreal done in the last 10 years to justify constantly coming up as #1?

 

[wintersej]

It doesn't look like the experts "always" undervalue the Habs.

In the 2015/2016 season, 3 of your experts projected them to be 2nd in the division, and one projected them to finish 3rd. They finished in 6th.

I think the answer to your question is much simpler than your possible answers: the experts aren't very good at making predictions.

Yes! What a silly OP.

 

[WatchfulElm]

Montreal won the 2013 division title after finishing 28th. Meanwhile Boston had won the division the year before and had recently won a cup. Montreal won the division by just a single point.

Montreal won the 2014-15 division by just 2 points despite Price giving them the best season of his career.

The 2016-17 division title was won after the Price missed 75% of a season with a knee injury and the team melted down without him.

We're not talking about the 5 time division champion Ducks here. The experts are making reasonable projections.

I agree with this. And if the average predictions for the Habs was #2 or #3, it wouldn't be an issue. The odd thing here is that ALL experts predicted them to be #2, #3 or worse. They were unanimously wrong, not just one year, not just 2, but 3 years, within a 5 years span.

That the average prediction is a little wrong is normal. But that every single prediction taken separately were also wrong, this is... odd!

 

[Aceboogie]

Montreal does not have a sexy roster so I can see how experts would overlook them. Aside from Subban in the past the team lacked a noteworthy skater roster. There was no #1C or star forwards, even Subban himself was underrated even when he was winning the Norris. Much easier to get hyped when a team has Stamkos/Hedman/Crosby/Ovy/Malkin/Tavares etc

Also: Price can carry a team pretty far