Line Combos: Who's our backup goalie and bottom 6 forwards for the 2019-2020 season?

[RainingRats]

IMO we should pass on Bob if it takes above $6.5 million to resign him and even then we should think twice. Performance matters. Playing behind a very solid D in the defense oriented system run by Torts, Bob has a 9.09% save percentage this season allowing 2.72 goals per game. Those numbers would presumably balloon for the worse playing behind Florida's porous, mistake prone D, which gives up way too many high quality scoring chances. I have not seen the analytics but I would bet our D is bottom five or worse in the league on 5-5.

We are 10th overall (good/slightly above average) for scoring chances against. 23rd overall (not so good/below average ) for high danger scoring chances. CBJ is 14th for scoring chances against and 15th for high danger scoring chances against so they’re average defensively.

I think it’s a fair question to ask are we going to be a better team with a goalie and d-man for bob’s salary or bob in net?

I also think it’s fair to ask, should we even be paying someone a ton of money coming off that kind of year? No question he has the resume to deserve a big pay day but there’s no guarantee he gets back to his Vezina days. Cory Schneider’s game fell off a cliff. Montreal looked like they were screwed but then Price bounced back.

My opinion is that we should try to trade for a goalie or sign a UFA goalie other than Bob first. No clue who that is though. I think Bob should be our second or third option. I’m also not a fan of overpaying him to get Panarin. I’m not convinced they want to play in Carolina. I do think Philly is a potential option and they will get Q but not sure they have the cap space.

 

[SufferingCatFan]

We are 10th overall (good/slightly above average) for scoring chances against. 23rd overall (not so good/below average ) for high danger scoring chances. CBJ is 14th for scoring chances against and 15th for high danger scoring chances against so they’re average defensively.

I think it’s a fair question to ask are we going to be a better team with a goalie and d-man for bob’s salary or bob in net?

I also think it’s fair to ask, should we even be paying someone a ton of money coming off that kind of year? No question he has the resume to deserve a big pay day but there’s no guarantee he gets back to his Vezina days. Cory Schneider’s game fell off a cliff. Montreal looked like they were screwed but then Price bounced back.

My opinion is that we should try to trade for a goalie or sign a UFA goalie other than Bob first. No clue who that is though. I think Bob should be our second or third option. I’m also not a fan of overpaying him to get Panarin. I’m not convinced they want to play in Carolina. I do think Philly is a potential option and they will get Q but not sure they have the cap space.

Thanks for the numbers on defense. Surprised that Columbus is not better and that we are not worse.

 

[pb1300]

Come on you know I meant 73.8

Even assuming your numbers, which are um, generous to say the least (1.7 for Sheahan and 1.2 for McCoshen?) the other RFAs you mention are minimum players, Florida's going to have 4.5 to 5 million minimum, that is more than enough to add a good upgrade there.



I'm convinced this is already done behind the scenes.

I’m not being generous. Sheahan’s number is $500k less than what he makes now, and Ian’s is a $300k raise. The others total are maybe a couple hundred thousand higher or lower, at the most. And again, in order to have any cap space, we have to deal with Lou and Reimers contracts, without taking salary back, which won’t be a simple task.

 

[ucanthanzalthetruth]

I’m not being generous. Sheahan’s number is $500k less than what he makes now, and Ian’s is a $300k raise. The others total are maybe a couple hundred thousand higher or lower, at the most. And again, in order to have any cap space, we have to deal with Lou and Reimers contracts, without taking salary back, which won’t be a simple task.

4.5 million is still enough for a good dman... and hopefully even more, I'm hoping Ottawa takes Reimer, they need to take on an insane amount of salary and they need a goalie...

 

[BeezKnees]

Looks like Luongo’s getting the start tonight. Let’s see what he looks like after 6 games of rest. Backup Lu edition.

 

[RogerRoger]

I’m not being generous. Sheahan’s number is $500k less than what he makes now, and Ian’s is a $300k raise. The others total are maybe a couple hundred thousand higher or lower, at the most. And again, in order to have any cap space, we have to deal with Lou and Reimers contracts, without taking salary back, which won’t be a simple task.

No team would pay a struggling fourth liner 1.7M. Just like no team gave more than 1M for a guy like Brouwer. You don't pay much for slow struggling 4th liners.
Pay Lammikko 800K and the difference in play is non-existent.

 

[KW]

We are 10th overall (good/slightly above average) for scoring chances against. 23rd overall (not so good/below average ) for high danger scoring chances. CBJ is 14th for scoring chances against and 15th for high danger scoring chances against so they’re average defensively.

I think it’s a fair question to ask are we going to be a better team with a goalie and d-man for bob’s salary or bob in net?

I also think it’s fair to ask, should we even be paying someone a ton of money coming off that kind of year? No question he has the resume to deserve a big pay day but there’s no guarantee he gets back to his Vezina days. Cory Schneider’s game fell off a cliff. Montreal looked like they were screwed but then Price bounced back.

My opinion is that we should try to trade for a goalie or sign a UFA goalie other than Bob first. No clue who that is though. I think Bob should be our second or third option. I’m also not a fan of overpaying him to get Panarin. I’m not convinced they want to play in Carolina. I do think Philly is a potential option and they will get Q but not sure they have the cap space.

The high danger chances against stat for Panthers is pretty poor. I’ll add also that unfortunately the chances against stats are all positional. There no judgment of actual danger. Examples:
- a telegraphed pass across the zone to HD area is often saved by a goalie, but it counts as HD
- a sudden turnover in HD area becomes a SUPER HD chance....my impression from this season is that Panthers would lead (in the wrong way) in this stat

So what? Because of this, I agree with you that just bringing in Bob without a focused defensive improvement (preparation of defense and addition of a top-4) will expose Bob next season as well. He’ll do better than Lu and Reimer but he’s not going to get us 12 more points all by himself if we keep allowing Super HD shots. Thus, I would look for a shorter term goalie (and this works better long term with Monty anyway).

 

[RainingRats]

The high danger chances against stat for Panthers is pretty poor. I’ll add also that unfortunately the chances against stats are all positional. There no judgment of actual danger. Examples:
- a telegraphed pass across the zone to HD area is often saved by a goalie, but it counts as HD
- a sudden turnover in HD area becomes a SUPER HD chance....my impression from this season is that Panthers would lead (in the wrong way) in this stat

So what? Because of this, I agree with you that just bringing in Bob without a focused defensive improvement (preparation of defense and addition of a top-4) will expose Bob next season as well. He’ll do better than Lu and Reimer but he’s not going to get us 12 more points all by himself if we keep allowing Super HD shots. Thus, I would look for a shorter term goalie (and this works better long term with Monty anyway).

The higher number of high danger chance is influenced most likely by Mr Matheson. Replace him and suddenly the D will look a helluva lot better. Not too easy.


If you look at the total numbers, we are giving up like .5 high danger chances more a game than teams in the middle of the pack iirc. Not much! Not much at all. We are also getting the worst save percentage from Luo and Reimer on high danger chances. Therefore, if we upgrade goaltending and nothing changes defensively, we’ll win a lot more games. How many exactly? Hard to say but another 12 points is very reasonable given how many shootout losses we’ve had, leads we’ve blown, and one goal games we’ve been in. Plus consider how bad our goalies have been with scoring chances overall, that any decent goalie will get us 12 more points, easily. Upgrading the d would make us even better but not a must have to get into playoffs.

 

[I am not exposed]

The higher number of high danger chance is influenced most likely by Mr Matheson. Replace him and suddenly the D will look a helluva lot better. Not too easy.


If you look at the total numbers, we are giving up like .5 high danger chances more a game than teams in the middle of the pack iirc. Not much! Not much at all. We are also getting the worst save percentage from Luo and Reimer on high danger chances. Therefore, if we upgrade goaltending and nothing changes defensively, we’ll win a lot more games. How many exactly? Hard to say but another 12 points is very reasonable given how many shootout losses we’ve had, leads we’ve blown, and one goal games we’ve been in. Plus consider how bad our goalies have been with scoring chances overall, that any decent goalie will get us 12 more points, easily. Upgrading the d would make us even better but not a must have to get into playoffs.

Yep.

Better goaltending than Lou/Reimer this season = playoffs.
Top 4 Dman to play with Matheson = Very good team that can make some noise in the playoffs.

 

[ucanthanzalthetruth]

We are 10th overall (good/slightly above average) for scoring chances against. 23rd overall (not so good/below average ) for high danger scoring chances. CBJ is 14th for scoring chances against and 15th for high danger scoring chances against so they’re average defensively.

I think it’s a fair question to ask are we going to be a better team with a goalie and d-man for bob’s salary or bob in net?

I also think it’s fair to ask, should we even be paying someone a ton of money coming off that kind of year? No question he has the resume to deserve a big pay day but there’s no guarantee he gets back to his Vezina days. Cory Schneider’s game fell off a cliff. Montreal looked like they were screwed but then Price bounced back.

My opinion is that we should try to trade for a goalie or sign a UFA goalie other than Bob first. No clue who that is though. I think Bob should be our second or third option. I’m also not a fan of overpaying him to get Panarin. I’m not convinced they want to play in Carolina. I do think Philly is a potential option and they will get Q but not sure they have the cap space.

Cory Schneider died because of injuries though. Even if he doesn't go back to vezina caliber Bob's still the best UFA goalie available. His "weak" numbers are exaggerated.

Even if you think the franchise is not moving in 2023, there's absolutely no guarantee Barkov is staying. 2020, 2021, 2022 I want the best goalie to make the team win. That's not Monty.

 

[KW]

The higher number of high danger chance is influenced most likely by Mr Matheson. Replace him and suddenly the D will look a helluva lot better. Not too easy.


If you look at the total numbers, we are giving up like .5 high danger chances more a game than teams in the middle of the pack iirc. Not much! Not much at all. We are also getting the worst save percentage from Luo and Reimer on high danger chances. Therefore, if we upgrade goaltending and nothing changes defensively, we’ll win a lot more games. How many exactly? Hard to say but another 12 points is very reasonable given how many shootout losses we’ve had, leads we’ve blown, and one goal games we’ve been in. Plus consider how bad our goalies have been with scoring chances overall, that any decent goalie will get us 12 more points, easily. Upgrading the d would make us even better but not a must have to get into playoffs.

I’m not convinced.

You ignored my specific statement about variation in HD chances. The eye test says that one cannot ignore the aspect I mentioned. It’s disappointing that you (and many others) do exactly that.

 

[RainingRats]

Cory Schneider died because of injuries though. Even if he doesn't go back to vezina caliber Bob's still the best UFA goalie available. His "weak" numbers are exaggerated.

Even if you think the franchise is not moving in 2023, there's absolutely no guarantee Barkov is staying. 2020, 2021, 2022 I want the best goalie to make the team win. That's not Monty.

Injuries can happen to anyone though. That’s the argument in favor of not committing spectacular money to someone with an unspectacular season.

I agree with what you’re saying but I think the arguments against Bob are quite valid

 

[RainingRats]

I’m not convinced.

You ignored my specific statement about variation in HD chances. The eye test says that one cannot ignore the aspect I mentioned. It’s disappointing that you (and many others) do exactly that.

Huh? I split high danger and non high danger out. Applied it to our goalies too.

Of course all high danger aren’t the same but that’s not a good point bc over as many games as we have played and other teams have played, the sample size is large enough to be reliable.

 

[Anakinsky]

Looks like Luongo’s getting the start tonight. Let’s see what he looks like after 6 games of rest. Backup Lu edition.

sadness..... Maybe the new D we just signed will get a shot ? Would not mind seeing him play.

 

[Anakinsky]

way off topic, but man Canadian's may have nailed it with G Cayden Primeau. 19 years old!

 

[KW]

Huh? I split high danger and non high danger out. Applied it to our goalies too.

Of course all high danger aren’t the same but that’s not a good point bc over as many games as we have played and other teams have played, the sample size is large enough to be reliable.

Actually, I think differentiating between HD chances would be an excellent metric to tell you what’s going on. That metric should have not only position but at least one other attribute (like if it was a result of a turnover, odd man rush, etc.).

If you see skew towards one or another from league average, you’ll be able to judge that something is off. Or something is good. It would get the metric to have an eye test flavor. Without it, you’re prone to the wrong conclusions. Which in my opinion is going on here.

 

[Gentle Man]

Actually, I think differentiating between HD chances would be an excellent metric to tell you what’s going on. That metric should have not only position but at least one other attribute (like if it was a result of a turnover, odd man rush, etc.).

If you see skew towards one or another from league average, you’ll be able to judge that something is off. Or something is good. It would get the metric to have an eye test flavor. Without it, you’re prone to the wrong conclusions. Which in my opinion is going on here.

HDC already factors that in though.

It's based on a points scale.

• Scoring Chances - a scoring chance, as originally defined by War-on-Ice.
  Each shot attempt (Corsi) taken in the offensive zone is assigned a value based on the area of the zone in which it was recorded. Attempts made from the attacking team's neutral or defensive zones are excluded.
  
  
  
  Attempts from the yellow areas are assigned a value of 1, attempts from the red areas are assigned a value of 2, and attempts in the green area are assigned a value of 3.
  Add 1 to this value if the attempt is considered a rush shot or a rebound. A rebound is any attempt made within 3 seconds of another blocked, missed or saved attempt without a stoppage in play in between. A rush shot is any attempt within 4 seconds of any event in the neutral or defensive zone without a stoppage in play in between (originally defined by David Johnson on the now-offline Hockey Analysis, and modified to 4 seconds by War-on-Ice).
  Decrease this value by 1 if it was a blocked shot.
  Any attempt with a score of 2 or higher is considered a scoring chance.
  • SCF - Count of Scoring Chances for the selected team while that combination of players is on the ice.
  • SCA - Count of Scoring Chances against the selected team while that combination of players is on the ice.
  • SCF% - Percentage of total Scoring Chances while that combination of players is on the ice that are for the selected team. SCF*100/(SCF+SCA)
• High Danger Scoring Chances - a scoring chance with a score of 3 or higher.
  • HDCF - Count of High Danger Scoring Chances for the selected team while that combination of players is on the ice.
  • HDCA - Count of High Danger Scoring Chances against the selected team while that combination of players is on the ice.
  • HDCF% - Percentage of total High Danger Scoring Chances while that combination of players is on the ice that are for the selected team. HDCF*100/(HDCF+HDCA)

 

[RainingRats]

Actually, I think differentiating between HD chances would be an excellent metric to tell you what’s going on. That metric should have not only position but at least one other attribute (like if it was a result of a turnover, odd man rush, etc.).

If you see skew towards one or another from league average, you’ll be able to judge that something is off. Or something is good. It would get the metric to have an eye test flavor. Without it, you’re prone to the wrong conclusions. Which in my opinion is going on here.

It’s Pretty clear you don’t know what you’re talking about so we can end this discussion

 

[KW]

It’s Pretty clear you don’t know what you’re talking about so we can end this discussion

Weird. But, concession accepted.

 

[I am not exposed]

I just agreed a trade with Calgary fans!

Trocheck + a 4th round pick for T.J. Brodie and Mark Jankowski.

Brodie solidifies our top 4D and is an ideal partner for Matheson. Janowski helps with the centre depth and slots into out 3rd line. Helping with the PK. Brodies caphit means we can still go for a goaltender plus Panarin.

We lose Trocheck which would be a big loss even if he is having a bad season for his standards. However, we sign Panarin in the offseason, and he plays with Borgstrom on the 2nd line.

Thoughts?

 

[Gentle Man]

I just agreed a trade with Calgary fans!

Trocheck + a 4th round pick for T.J. Brodie and Mark Jankowski.

Brodie solidifies our top 4D and is an ideal partner for Matheson. Janowski helps with the centre depth and slots into out 3rd line. Helping with the PK. Brodies caphit means we can still go for a goaltender plus Panarin.

We lose Trocheck which would be a big loss even if he is having a bad season for his standards. However, we sign Panarin in the offseason, and he plays with Borgstrom on the 2nd line.

Thoughts?

I like it except I still don't know what we have in Borgstrom.

I wish we gave him up for McDonagh.

If we do that trade and Reimer and Lu are gone with salary cap repercussions, maybe we can pursue Kevin Hayes to fill that role

Huberdeau Barkov Hoffman
Panarin Hayes Dadonov
Vatrano Borgstrom Hawryluk
McGinn Jankowski Sceviour

Brodie Ekblad
Yandle Weegar
Matheson Brown

I like it

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

I just agreed a trade with Calgary fans!

Trocheck + a 4th round pick for T.J. Brodie and Mark Jankowski.

Brodie solidifies our top 4D and is an ideal partner for Matheson. Janowski helps with the centre depth and slots into out 3rd line. Helping with the PK. Brodies caphit means we can still go for a goaltender plus Panarin.

We lose Trocheck which would be a big loss even if he is having a bad season for his standards. However, we sign Panarin in the offseason, and he plays with Borgstrom on the 2nd line.

Thoughts?

Value is probably there but I'd prefer trying to chase Trouba and Lowry instead. Even though both of those two may combine for around $10 to 11 million (assume Trouba signs for 7 x 7 or 7 x 7.5). Don't like that Brodie only has 1 year left because of the expansion draft, one would assume management believe Weegar could possibly take over for Brodie if he isn't re-signed at that point.

As much as I've been calling for Borgstrom on the 2nd line, don't know if I'd be comfortable relying on Borgstrom with Jankowski instead of Trocheck as the 3C. Definitely understand the cost side of this deal while plugging the extra hole on RD, just feel Trocheck could pull a better 1 for 1 deal (RD) but it is a decent option if management believe Borg is ready for 2C. Would feel a lot better if Panarin was signed before this deal is made, he is strong enough to be a line driver to allow Borg less responsibility.

 

[I am not exposed]

Value is probably there but I'd prefer trying to chase Trouba and Lowry instead. Even though both of those two may combine for around $10 to 11 million (assume Trouba signs for 7 x 7 or 7 x 7.5). Don't like that Brodie only has 1 year left because of the expansion draft, one would assume management believe Weegar could possibly take over for Brodie if he isn't re-signed at that point.

As much as I've been calling for Borgstrom on the 2nd line, don't know if I'd be comfortable relying on Borgstrom with Jankowski instead of Trocheck as the 3C. Definitely understand the cost side of this deal while plugging the extra hole on RD, just feel Trocheck could pull a better 1 for 1 deal (RD) but it is a decent option if management believe Borg is ready for 2C. Would feel a lot better if Panarin was signed before this deal is made, he is strong enough to be a line driver to allow Borg less responsibility.

I would feel a lot more comfortable with the trade if we have Panarin in place. Him being a line driver is why I think it would be a good trade.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

I would feel a lot more comfortable with the trade if we have Panarin in place. Him being a line driver is why I think it would be a good trade.

What would you do with Brodie in regards to a new deal? Yandle, Matheson and Ekblad all need to be protected no? Matheson's modified NTC kicks in for the 2021-22 year, think the draft is at the end of the 2020-21 season?
So would you expose Matheson (27 years old) with 5 years left to re-sign Brodie to a 5 year deal when he turns 29-30?

 

[I am not exposed]

What would you do with Brodie in regards to a new deal? Yandle, Matheson and Ekblad all need to be protected no? Matheson's modified NTC kicks in for the 2021-22 year, think the draft is at the end of the 2020-21 season?
So would you expose Matheson (27 years old) with 5 years left to re-sign Brodie to a 5 year deal when he turns 29-30?

Depends how much he wants. And how much Matheson has improved by then!