Line Combos: Who's our backup goalie and bottom 6 forwards for the 2019-2020 season?

[Acadmus]

This is a no-win for Panthers management. If Monty keeps winning (and 4 games, 3-1 and no more than 2 goals surrendered in any game), how do you not go with him as your starter next season? But then you've got Lou and Reimer and someone's gotta go, and meanwhile you've cleared up all this cap space for a goalie and it'll look really bad if you don't get one, especially if Monty comes back next season and isn't as good.

I don't envy Tallon right now

 

[I am not exposed]

This is a no-win for Panthers management. If Monty keeps winning (and 4 games, 3-1 and no more than 2 goals surrendered in any game), how do you not go with him as your starter next season? But then you've got Lou and Reimer and someone's gotta go, and meanwhile you've cleared up all this cap space for a goalie and it'll look really bad if you don't get one, especially if Monty comes back next season and isn't as good.

I don't envy Tallon right now

Easy. The sample size is too small. Relying on Monty is just far too risky.

 

[letsgrowcactus]

This is a no-win for Panthers management. If Monty keeps winning (and 4 games, 3-1 and no more than 2 goals surrendered in any game), how do you not go with him as your starter next season? But then you've got Lou and Reimer and someone's gotta go, and meanwhile you've cleared up all this cap space for a goalie and it'll look really bad if you don't get one, especially if Monty comes back next season and isn't as good.

I don't envy Tallon right now

There's absolutely no way you go with Monty as a starter next year, not after twelve games and I don't care how well he plays. If you really like him that much, then you get a "stopgap starter" (someone like Howard for example), have Monty as his backup and watch as he steals the starter position over the course of the year. But you don't give him the position after twelve games, that's insane.

 

[KW]

Given all the opposition to making Monty a starter has convinced me that making him the starter would be the right thing.

 

[Dr Beinfest]

Easy. The sample size is too small. Relying on Monty is just far too risky.

Is it actually “too risky”? We’ve had shit goaltending all year and we are still sort of eligible for “middle of the pack.”

What’s riskier than Reimer and Luongo? I love Lu, but generally speaking, nothing could’ve been worse than Reimer and Luongo this season.

If you don’t sign a goalie, that just means more money for a skater.

I hope they go with Monty and make a splash on defense or up front instead.

 

[KW]

Is it actually “too risky”? We’ve had **** goaltending all year and we are still sort of eligible for “middle of the pack.”

What’s riskier than Reimer and Luongo? I love Lu, but generally speaking, nothing could’ve been worse than Reimer and Luongo this season.

If you don’t sign a goalie, that just means more money for a skater.

I hope they go with Monty and make a splash on defense or up front instead.

At the very least, Monty should be a starter option for next year.

That way DT won’t be behind the 8 ball when talking to Bob, his agent and their psychiatrist. If bob won’t settle for anything less than keys to the kingdom for the next 7 years, DT can tell him to invade the rangers little surfdom instead.

 

[Dr Beinfest]

Food for thought:

Reimer and Luongo rank approximately 45 and 50 in terms of save percentage, in terms of goalies with more than ~15 appearances.

That basically says “most starters and their backups have performed better.” Loosely speaking.

Less than half of Luongo’s starts have quailed as quality starts. Nearly two thirds of Reimer’s statts have failed to qualify as quality starts.

Bluntly put, there are only about one or two goalies in the league who have performed worse as starters or platoons.

This team should have absolutely no qualms with starting a rookie goalie, and absolutely should in no way or form cave to signing up their future and precious monetary resource towards a goalie passing his prime. The only way to go from here in net is up. Don’t do something stupid that ties us up.

 

[RainingRats]

Food for thought:

Reimer and Luongo rank approximately 45 and 50 in terms of save percentage, in terms of goalies with more than ~15 appearances.

That basically says “most starters and their backups have performed better.” Loosely speaking.

Less than half of Luongo’s starts have quailed as quality starts. Nearly two thirds of Reimer’s statts have failed to qualify as quality starts.

Bluntly put, there are only about one or two goalies in the league who have performed worse as starters or platoons.

This team should have absolutely no qualms with starting a rookie goalie, and absolutely should in no way or form cave to signing up their future and precious monetary resource towards a goalie passing his prime. The only way to go from here in net is up. Don’t do something stupid that ties us up.

I don’t think anyone doesn’t think Monty can be better than those two because the bar is so low, but...
1. How much better as a starter over a full season? Nobody truly knows
2. How risky is it relying on an unproven goalie? Risky
3. What other options do we have that can be more likely to better than Monty and this low bar? A few
4. Can we get a proven starter and have Monty? Yes

With how goaltending has sunk our season and the large amount of cap space we have, there’s no reason not to try to get a proven starter and have Monty as a secondary option.

 

[Dr Beinfest]

I don’t think anyone doesn’t think Monty can be better than those two because the bar is so low, but...
1. How much better as a starter over a full season? Nobody truly knows
2. How risky is it relying on an unproven goalie? Risky
3. What other options do we have that can be more likely to better than Monty and this low bar? A few
4. Can we get a proven starter and have Monty? Yes

With how goaltending has sunk our season and the large amount of cap space we have, there’s no reason not to try to get a proven starter and have Monty as a secondary option.

I’m not saying he’ll do better at all. I’m saying he can’t be worse. It is statistically very difficult to be worse.
But to your #2 point, that’s sort of the point I’m explaining? You’re detailing it as “risky.” It’s not risky in the delta sense. From this season to next, the worst thing that can happen is nothing changes in net. It’s not any more of a risk than just sticking to Luongo and Reimer, but it has a much higher upside. As for Bobrovsky @ 7 years+? You want to talk about risk? There’s absolutely a chance that Bovrovsky is dead weight 2-3 years from now. Then what, you’ve got some $35 million tied up in dead weight? For a team that’s consistently in financial crisis, knowing you only get one shot at a goalie, I don’t think investing long term in a goalie rounding 31 is a wise idea. You make that mistake with a forward and you can bury him in the lineup or pay someone to take him. You make that mistake with a goalie and you’re stuck with him.

I don’t see a path to having anything aside from Luongo + (someone else) next season, given Reimer will cost us to dispose. I’d prefer that someone else is cheap. Like it or not, this is a consequence of the Luongo trade. We are stuck with him. I’m fine with that, but it’s fact. We shouldn’t be running off throwing money at goalies until he retires.

 

[RainingRats]

I’m not saying he’ll do better at all. I’m saying he can’t be worse. It is statistically very difficult to be worse.
But to your #2 point, that’s sort of the point I’m explaining? You’re detailing it as “risky.” It’s not risky in the delta sense. From this season to next, the worst thing that can happen is nothing changes in net. It’s not any more of a risk than just sticking to Luongo and Reimer, but it has a much higher upside. As for Bobrovsky @ 7 years+? You want to talk about risk? There’s absolutely a chance that Bovrovsky is dead weight 2-3 years from now. Then what, you’ve got some $35 million tied up in dead weight? For a team that’s consistently in financial crisis, knowing you only get one shot at a goalie, I don’t think investing long term in a goalie rounding 31 is a wise idea. You make that mistake with a forward and you can bury him in the lineup or pay someone to take him. You make that mistake with a goalie and you’re stuck with him.

I don’t see a path to having anything aside from Luongo + (someone else) next season, given Reimer will cost us to dispose. I’d prefer that someone else is cheap. Like it or not, this is a consequence of the Luongo trade. We are stuck with him. I’m fine with that, but it’s fact. We shouldn’t be running off throwing money at goalies until he retires.

It’s unecessary risk. He can still be better but not good enough. There’s no reason to rely solely on him. To bank on him and Lou is a good way to risk no playoffs. Monty should have been called up months ago and we would have a better picture.

I think dead weight in 2/3 years is not true. Bob is one a few options.

To your point about being able to bury a forward In the lineup. Goes both ways. If your duo of Monty and Luo stink, you’ve got no other options. Luo won’t be better next season. No reason to think his play will improve. He’s 40. He may retire.

 

[Dr Beinfest]

It’s unecessary risk. He can still be better but not good enough. There’s no reason to rely solely on him. To bank on him and Lou is a good way to risk no playoffs. Monty should have been called up months ago and we would have a better picture.

I think dead weight in 2/3 years is not true. Bob is one a few options.

To your point about being able to bury a forward In the lineup. Goes both ways. If your duo of Monty and Luo stink, you’ve got no other options. Luo won’t be better next season. No reason to think his play will improve. He’s 40. He may retire.

But you keep saying the same thing. We aren’t even in agreeance but you’re sounding like you think we are. What is “unnecessary risk”? The only “risk” encountered by not committing to a long term free agent is the status quo. It doesn’t get worse than this. That’s not a risk. That’s just fact. To me, a risk is a measurable ability for something not panning out as you expect it to.
The risk in a goalie free agent long term is huge. There is no risk in maintaining the status quo (rock bottom), but there is a path where the status quo allows for a booming potential.
I don’t know what you mean by saying burying a skater in the lineup goes both ways. You can’t bury a goalie in the lineup. They’re binary. Start or sit. There are two spots. Starter or backup. It is unconscionable to have a goalie long term making loads of money and not be occupying one of those spots. With a forward, it’s not uncommon to demote an overpaid player to your third or fourth line after extended periods of poor performance.
And I never said Luongo was getting any better. I said we are stuck with him until he retires. That much is true. If Luongo retires, it’s arguably the best thing for the team, but simultaneously that saddens me and I don’t want him to retire. But those are illogical feels, not rational ones.

 

[RainingRats]

But you keep saying the same thing. We aren’t even in agreeance but you’re sounding like you think we are. What is “unnecessary risk”? The only “risk” encountered by not committing to a long term free agent is the status quo. It doesn’t get worse than this. That’s not a risk. That’s just fact. To me, a risk is a measurable ability for something not panning out as you expect it to.
The risk in a goalie free agent long term is huge. There is no risk in maintaining the status quo (rock bottom), but there is a path where the status quo allows for a booming potential.
I don’t know what you mean by saying burying a skater in the lineup goes both ways. You can’t bury a goalie in the lineup. They’re binary. Start or sit. There are two spots. Starter or backup. It is unconscionable to have a goalie long term making loads of money and not be occupying one of those spots. With a forward, it’s not uncommon to demote an overpaid player to your third or fourth line after extended periods of poor performance.
And I never said Luongo was getting any better. I said we are stuck with him until he retires. That much is true. If Luongo retires, it’s arguably the best thing for the team, but simultaneously that saddens me and I don’t want him to retire. But those are illogical feels, not rational ones.

He can be better than Lu and Reimer and still be below average or less likely to be as good as other options. It isn’t just Monty or Bob as our goalie options.

There isn’t only starter or backup. They can split games. There can be injuries. Ride the hot goalie.

There’s no guarantee we are getting bob and if we do no guarantee he’ll decline like you believe. There are other more proven options too. Worrying about the cap in a few years is not a big concern. Team could be gone if we don’t start winning soon. Bob or a proven goalie, while still having Monty as an option is the best optio.

 

[BeezKnees]

Tallon might be GMing for his job this offseason. If we don’t make the playoffs next year he might lose everything he built over almost a decade. He’s going to do his best to put us over the edge and that means sign Bobrovsky. Figure out the rest later. Trade him or let Seattle poach him in a couple years if Monty is ready.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Tallon might be GMing for his job this offseason. If we don’t make the playoffs next year he might lose everything he built over almost a decade. He’s going to do his best to put us over the edge and that means sign Bobrovsky. Figure out the rest later. Trade him or let Seattle poach him in a couple years if Monty is ready.

This is a big issue though if Monty has to be protected and Bob gets a NMC/NTC in his deal. Dale will have to get creative and one would assume he will prefer a 5-6 year deal with no clauses where Bob wants 7 years with full control.

6 years should be max and offer him the last 3-4 years of NMC/NTC, which allows us to expose him in a couple years if need be. If Monty is ready, you wish Bob well and he should be thankful for the deal Tallon gives him. If Monty isn't ready then you trade him prior to the draft and hope Bednard is ready. Or you pay a price to protect both Bob and Monty. We have options but we need to clarify if Monty needs protection.

 

[Ghoste]

I wish it would unfold as the perfect scenario: Monty continues to play great. No need to spend big on Bob. Able to sign Panarin. Able to acquire a legit top-4 defenseman. Able to re-sign Hoff.

Us being Panthers though we'll make some kind of wrong decision.

-ghoste

 

[MintyFresh88]

I haven't read through all of the posts, but I don't think there's even a remote chance that we go into next season with Monty as the #1, even if he wins every game he plays the rest of this season. We need a starter and we need to get rid of one or both of Luongo/Reimer. Unfortunately for Reimer, his fate is likely in the hands of Luongo. If Luongo indicates that he plans on playing next season, Reimer is gone. Monty is the #3 and we sign/acquire a starter. The only way Monty is on the main roster next season is if both Luongo and Reimer are gone and then he becomes the #2.

 

[ucanthanzalthetruth]

I haven't read through all of the posts, but I don't think there's even a remote chance that we go into next season with Monty as the #1, even if he wins every game he plays the rest of this season. We need a starter and we need to get rid of one or both of Luongo/Reimer. Unfortunately for Reimer, his fate is likely in the hands of Luongo. If Luongo indicates that he plans on playing next season, Reimer is gone. Monty is the #3 and we sign/acquire a starter. The only way Monty is on the main roster next season is if both Luongo and Reimer are gone and then he becomes the #2.

I think Reimer is gone regardless of what Lu chooses. Said it a couple days ago but I'd be surprised if he dresses again.

 

[RogerRoger]

The only way Monty is on the main roster next season is if both Luongo and Reimer are gone and then he becomes the #2.

If the team keep either of them, they are not serious about winning.

 

[SufferingCatFan]

I am having a hard time understanding how we have the cap space add a top 4 D, Bread, a No. 1 goalie and resign a couple of forwards. Thoughts?

 

[RogerRoger]

I am having a hard time understanding how we have the cap space add a top 4 D, Bread, a No. 1 goalie and resign a couple of forwards. Thoughts?

It depends who the No.1 goalie is. The Cap issue only exist if we are stupid enough to overpay for a goalie who had a below average season and if we keep Luongo around.
You can sign a goalie like; Howard, Elliot, Nilson, McElhinney (they have all outplayed Bob) for 2 to 3M and you have 16M next season for Dadonov&Hoffman.

(Assuming: 10M for Panarin, 6M for Edler, 3M for Hunt+Sheahan+Hawryluk, Luongo LTIR, Reimer AHL, Brown replace Pysyk in 2020, and that the cap is at 83M)

 

[FinlandPanther]

It depends who the No.1 goalie is. The Cap issue only exist if we are stupid enough to overpay for a goalie who had a below average season and if we keep Luongo around.
You can sign a goalie like; Howard, Elliot, Nilson, McElhinney (they have all outplayed Bob) for 2 to 3M and you have 16M next season for Dadonov&Hoffman.

(Assuming: 10M for Panarin, 6M for Edler, 3M for Hunt+Sheahan+Hawryluk, Luongo LTIR, Reimer AHL, Brown replace Pysyk in 2020, and that the cap is at 83M)

No way in hell do you ever give Edler 6M.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

It depends who the No.1 goalie is. The Cap issue only exist if we are stupid enough to overpay for a goalie who had a below average season and if we keep Luongo around.
You can sign a goalie like; Howard, Elliot, Nilson, McElhinney (they have all outplayed Bob) for 2 to 3M and you have 16M next season for Dadonov&Hoffman.

(Assuming: 10M for Panarin, 6M for Edler, 3M for Hunt+Sheahan+Hawryluk, Luongo LTIR, Reimer AHL, Brown replace Pysyk in 2020, and that the cap is at 83M)

Edler ain't going anywhere Klabob, he nixed any deals at deadline and has expressed interest in staying in VAN.

Can almost guarantee they wont bring in another top 4 LD. Yandle and Matheson are the guys until Yandle leaves and one of Gildon/Stillman take the left over spot.

 

[RogerRoger]

No way in hell do you ever give Edler 6M.

Maybe not, swap the name for anyone. It's just math at this point.

 

[FinlandPanther]

Maybe not, swap the name for anyone. It's just math at this point.

Yeah I’ll give six mil to a D but not edler lol.

 

[RogerRoger]

Yeah I’ll give six mil to a D but not edler lol.

Do you want a left side composed of; Yandle, Matheson and Gardiner