Who wins the Rocket Richard in 2021?

[LeafsNation75]

Ovechkin has obviously earned the benefit of the doubt at this point until he doesn’t do it.

I will say that McDavid not being included among the short list of contenders is a little ridiculous. Aho? Eichel? All it took was one solid season from each to earn one of the poll spots? Lol.

McDavid is 6th in goals and 5th in GPG over the past 4 seasons. 4th most goals and 4th in GPG over the past 3 seasons. 7th and 6th in both categories over the past two years and we know what he was recovering from going into last season and how he also missed 7 games.

It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him contend and/or win ala Crosby winning his first Rocket in season 6.

I almost expect him to go bonkers this season at presumed full strength with the 56 game weird schedule and end up with 40-45 goals/90-100 points.

But putting the overly optimistic McDavid poms poms aside, Ovechkin is the clear choice and hasn’t lost that step I’ve been expecting for the past 5 years.

With the exception of McDavid's rookie year when he only scored 16 goals because he only played in 45 games due to injury, here is where he's ranked since the 2016-17 season in terms of goals scored and who won the Rocket Richard those years.

2016-17: 30 Goals scored which put him 26th in that category, Sidney Crosby won it with 44 goals scored.

2017-18: 41 Goals scored which put him 6th in that category, Alex Ovechkin won it 49 goals scored.

2018-19: 41 Goals scored which put him T-6 in that category, Alex Ovechkin won it 51 goals scored.

2019-20: 34 Goals scored which put him 10th in that category, Alex Ovechkin and David Pastrnak won it with 48 goals scored.

So the 2017-18 season when McDavid came within 8 goals of Ovechkin, it's the only time he's come close to possibly winning the Rocket Richard. Other players like Auston Matthews has come within 4 goals in the 2016-17 season of winning it and 1 goal during the 2019-20 season of winning it, so maybe that's why the NHL included his name among the players listed.

 

[Peggy]

Would you still think that if the numbers didn't show Draisaitl scoring 9 more goals than Matthews?

That's why Matthews 158 goals is better to go by compared to Draisaitl's 147 goals over the same time frame.

Did you ignore the part that last 2 years is more relevant than what happened 4 years ago?

 

[LeafsNation75]

Did you ignore the part that last 2 years is more relevant than the last 4 years or something?

Yes I saw where you said that. I also made my opinion clear asking if you would still use that stat today if Draisaitl had not scored 9 more goals than Matthews during the last 2 seasons.

 

[Peggy]

Yes I saw where you said that. I also made my opinion clear asking if you would still use that stat today if Draisaitl had not scored 9 more goals than Matthews during the last 2 seasons.

I use that logic for any future prediction. No one goes back to someone's rookie year to predict what they'll do the year after 6 years of playing

If you want to make an argument of who will have more career goals, then sure, but what does 2016 have to do with 2021?

Just sounds like you're arguing semantics

 

[LeafsNation75]

I use that logic for any future prediction. No one goes back to someone's rookie year to predict what they'll do the year after 6 years of playing

If you want to make an argument of who will have more career goals, then sure, but what does 2016 have to do with 2021?

Just sounds like you're arguing semantics

In the 2016-17 season Matthews finished 4 goals behind Crosby who won it with 44 goals.

In the 2019-20 season Matthews finished 1 goal behind Ovechkin and Pastrnak who won it with 48 goals.

The closest Draisatil came to winning it was the 2018-19 season when he was 1 goal behind Ovechkin who won it with 51 goals.

So because Matthews has come closer to winning the Rocket Richard compared to Draisaitl, that's why I'm including all their goals scored since Matthews rookie season from 2016-17.

 

[Koivu11]

In the 2016-17 season Matthews finished 4 goals behind Crosby who won it with 44 goals.

In the 2019-20 season Matthews finished 1 goal behind Ovechkin and Pastrnak who won it with 48 goals.

The closest Draisatil came to winning it was the 2018-19 season when he was 1 goal behind Ovechkin who won it with 51 goals.

So because Matthews has come closer to winning the Rocket Richard compared to Draisaitl, that's why I'm including all their goals scored since Matthews rookie season from 2016-17.

How has Matthews come closer than Draisaitl to winning the Rocket when both have been 1 goal behind the winners?

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

I kind of think Matthews and Drai have the toughest goalie matchups. Drai a bit more than AM bc Edmonton’s goalies are weaker than Toronto’s.

Eichel, OV and MacK are all kind of even but Eichel would have slightly tougher than OV bc Buffalos goalies are worse but WAS is a bit untested there.

MacK division is kind of weak but the goalies are pretty good across the board except Minny.

Aho probably has the easiest goalie comp but Vasy is obviously great and CLB has a good tandem. Which Bob shows up this year? Aho is the underdog but maybe can feast on an easier division.

Anyway, I’m taking OV until proven otherwise.

————

Matthews vs Price, Murray, Helly, Markstrom, Demko/Holtby, Koskinen/Smith

OV vs Rask/Halak, Shestyorkin/Georgiev, Jarry, Hart, Samsonov/Sorokin, Hutton, Blackwood/Crawford

MacK vs Lehner, Gibson, Quick, Kuemper/Raanta, Talbot/Stalock, Jones/Dubnyk, Binnington

Aho vs Vasy, Rinne/Saros, Elvis/Korpisalo, Bob, Subban/Delia, Greiss/Bernier, Khudobin (Bishop injured right?)

Eichel vs Rask/Halak, Shestyorkin/Georgiev, Jarry, Hart, Varlamov/Sorokin, Samsonov/Anderson, Blackwood/Crawford

Drai vs Price, Murray, Helly, Markstrom, Demko/Holtby, Andersen

 

[Steven Toast]

How has Matthews come closer than Draisaitl to winning the Rocket when both have been 1 goal behind the winners?

He gets the Leafs fan tie breaker. 1 goal behind from a Leaf (but in 3rd place for the Rocket) trumps 1 goal behind from a non Leaf.

 

[LeafsNation75]

How has Matthews come closer than Draisaitl to winning the Rocket when both have been 1 goal behind the winners?

In the 2016-17 season Matthews was T-2 with 40 goals, which was 4 behind Crosby's 44 goals.

In the 2019-20 season he was 3rd with 47 goals, which was 1 behind Ovechkin and Pastrnak's 48 goals.

Draisaitl was 2nd with 50 goals in the 2018-19 season, which was 1 behind Ovechkin's 51 goals.

So that's two times Matthews just missed winning the Rocket Richard and one time for Draisaitl.

 

[Koivu11]

In the 2016-17 season Matthews was T-2 with 40 goals, which was 4 behind Crosby's 44 goals.

In the 2019-20 season he was 3rd with 47 goals, which was 1 behind Ovechkin and Pastrnak's 48 goals.

Draisaitl was 2nd with 50 goals in the 2018-19 season, which was 1 behind Ovechkin's 51 goals.

So that's two times Matthews just missed winning the Rocket Richard and one time for Draisaitl.

If Matthews “just missed” winning the Rocket when he was 4 goals behind Crosby then you can say Draisaitl just missed winning it this past season since he was 5 goals behind Ovechkin and Pastrnak.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

In the 2016-17 season Matthews was T-2 with 40 goals, which was 4 behind Crosby's 44 goals.

In the 2019-20 season he was 3rd with 47 goals, which was 1 behind Ovechkin and Pastrnak's 48 goals.

Draisaitl was 2nd with 50 goals in the 2018-19 season, which was 1 behind Ovechkin's 51 goals.

So that's two times Matthews just missed winning the Rocket Richard and one time for Draisaitl.

Uhhh yeah, just missing the Rocket by having 4 goals less isn’t really a thing. Sure he was tied for runner up but that’s not a photo finish or anything

 

[Regal]

But those goal boosts play a roll in every Rocket race. If you can't have those big games you're probably not gonna take the trophy

I'm not arguing against them being important, I'm saying he looks hotter than the others on paper if you go back to the start of that streak, but he wasn't overly hot after that streak, and you can choose different periods where each of them looks better in terms of how they ended the season. I just don't think there is much reason to put any of the three as having an advantage down the stretch had the season played out.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

Other - Alex DeBrincat, Chicago Blackhawks.

Brinksy's last season was a great learning process for him, taught him many things and he worked on his weaknesses as well
but now, on his 4th season, the sniper reappears.

The 40+ goal player becomes a 50+ goal player.
I'm predicting a 50 in 50 season for Alex.

No other player in the world can shoot the puck like DeBrincat can.
No other player in the world can score goals like he can; his unique sneaky way, the DeBrincat way.

You never know when and from where the shot comes, but always it finds top corners.
His release is the quickest in the world and is the most accurate shot as well and
where ever he aims, there the puck goes, zero luck, only pure and hard worked ability.

---

Everyone seems to forget that, he scored 41 goals in his sophomore season, as a 20-21 year old.
Now he is 23, much stronger, better pro hockey player, starts his 4th pro season,
loads of...well everything to prove, to self and everyone else.

You all gonna see much different Alex DeBrincat from the get go in this upcoming season what last season, as a whole
- wouldn't surprise if he'd start the season with couple of hat-tricks

 

[Video Nasty]

With the exception of McDavid's rookie year when he only scored 16 goals because he only played in 45 games due to injury, here is where he's ranked since the 2016-17 season in terms of goals scored and who won the Rocket Richard those years.

2016-17: 30 Goals scored which put him 26th in that category, Sidney Crosby won it with 44 goals scored.

2017-18: 41 Goals scored which put him 6t in that category, Alex Ovechkin won it 49 goals scored.

2018-19: 41 Goals scored which put him T-6 in that category, Alex Ovechkin won it 51 goals scored.

2019-20: 34 Goals scored which put him 10th in that category, Alex Ovechkin and David Pastrnak won it with 48 goals scored.

So the 2017-18 season when McDavid came within 8 goals of Ovechkin, it's the only time he's come close to possibly winning the Rocket Richard. Other players like Auston Matthews has come within 4 goals in the 2016-17 season of winning it and 1 goal during the 2019-20 season of winning it, so maybe that's why the NHL included his name among the players listed.

I didn’t mention Matthews so there’s no need to rush to his defense like you always do.

I also didn’t fabricate any of McDavid’s total goals and goals per games figures. The placements are right on your part, but his consistency and overall ability would make a Rocket win unsurprising to me.

In the end, your boy will likely lose to Ovechkin. And if he doesn’t, ok well done, the 24 year will do what he should by beating the 35 year old.

 

[Hasa92]

Other, Laine.

It's a shortened season... If laine gets on a hot streak for a month again.

Ovi is probably the most probable winner tho.

 

[Midnight Judges]

40 over an 82 game season seems like his floor...

40 isn't anyone's floor. Even Ovie scored less than 40 from time to time.

 

[Dekes For Days]

their scoring ability is statistically identical.

Their scoring ability is not statistically identical. Matthews has greater ability. Draisaitl over the last couple years has had more opportunity to help bridge the gap during that time, but there's no reason to expect that opportunity gap to persist going forward.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

40 isn't anyone's floor. Even Ovie scored less than 40 from time to time.

I said it’s his floor if he repeats a similar level this season as last season. It was a discussion of his inflated SH%.

 

[Bedards Dad]

As always, it's Ovis to lose.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I didn’t mention Matthews so there’s no need to rush to his defense like you always do.

I also didn’t fabricate any of McDavid’s total goals and goals per games figures. The placements are right on your part, but his consistency and overall ability would make a Rocket win unsurprising to me.

In the end, your boy will likely lose to Ovechkin. And if he doesn’t, ok well done, the 24 year will do what he should by beating the 35 year old.

If Ovechkin wins the Rocket Richard next season and Matthews does not what difference does their ages make? Everyone has said Ovechkin is the favorite until someone else wins it.

 

[ricky0034]

Weak argument. No ones expecting him to score the equivalent of 59 goals over an 82 game season. That wins the Rocket in almost every year in recent league history.

He doesn’t need to shoot 19.7%. If he has the same amount of shots per game as last season and shoots 15% (career 12.9% shooter), that’s a 45 goal season. 13.3% with that number of shots per game is a 40 goal season. I see no reason to believe Zibanejad would shoot any lower than that and put up any less shots per game, considering he’s right now in the absolute prime of his career.

40 over an 82 game season seems like his floor, and up to 50 isn’t unreasonable. That puts him somewhere in the top 10 every recent season. No one’s expecting last season’s pace, but being one of the top goal scorers in the league is very reasonable.

you see no reason to believe a 27 year old will shoot any lower than 13.3% when outside of last year the only time he's managed to do that in his 8 season career was when he hit 13.33% in 2014-15?

 

[SlafCaufield]

I don't think he'll win the rocket but if Toffoli or Anderson get to play with Suzuki i could see either of them scoring 40 or more

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

you see no reason to believe a 27 year old will shoot any lower than 13.3% when outside of last year the only time he's managed to do that in his 8 season career was when he hit 13.33% in 2014-15?

He's a 12.9% career shooter. No, I do not believe that in his prime he's dipping below his career percentage after the best season of his career. For the past 7 seasons he's been over 10%. He's a high percentage shooter. Having a great shot makes a big difference.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

I don't think he'll win the rocket but if Toffoli or Anderson get to play with Suzuki i could see either of them scoring 40 or more

How does Anderson go from scoring one (1!) goal to scoring 40 the next year? He has yet to score 30 in his career, his peak is 27 at the moment.

He wasn't playing with scrubs in Columbus either, he got to play with PLD and Panarin.

 

[LeafsNation75]

How does Anderson go from scoring one (1!) goal to scoring 40 the next year? He has yet to score 30 in his career, his peak is 27 at the moment.

He wasn't playing with scrubs in Columbus either, he got to play with PLD and Panarin.

Never mind going from 1 goal to 40 the next year, that needs to be done in a 56 game schedule and not 82 games.

Last season the only players who scored exactly 40 goals after 56 games was Matthews and Ovechkin.