Speculation: Who will the Leafs draft at #4 ? Part IV

[Glenn Isildur Healy]

I agree they tried a lot, but we also never had a GOOD Dman. Rielly is offensive, so he is not a good pairing with Gardnier. We all know he makes bonehead moves once in a while, but he has the skill.... and a Hanifin could bail him out on several occasions.

Florida said they will not trade Huberdeau etc.... or I would be asking for Barkov etc.

But we are off topic, my bad.

Ok makes sense.

At the end of the day, we have to take the best offer available

 

[ocrighton]

I am warming up to the idea of selecting Hanifin with the 4th pick if he is available. With the 24th pick I would think about selecting J. Roy (if available), Juulsen and Meloche. They are all RD. If we could somehow get another late first rounder or early second rounder I would be ecstatic getting all three.

However, I hope that all scenarios are considered before setting ourselves on Hanifin . If Strome/Marner are available I hope the Leafs brass are evaluating Strome/Marner's ability to be a 1C in the future, and comparing that to what will be available next year high in the draft, while also taking into account what the future holds for Nylander and even Kadri. I would love to see the Leafs make every effort to have Nylander play centre and succeed. Furthermore, I still believe Kadri has the ability to be a good 2A/1B centre in the league.

Of course, other players should also be considered with the 24th pick and any other high picks we aquire as well. I don't watch these players very much, if at all. The Leafs organization has a much better idea of what these players are all about, and I just hope they select the best player available while taking into account the needs of our team, which I think are building through C and on D (Hanifin/Rielly solidifies our LD for the future, with Roy/Juulsen/Meloche coming up on RD).

 

[Paradoc]

I'm probably going to be minority but I'm looking forward to Gardiner-Hanifin than Rielly-Hanifin, if we draft him.

 

[Glenn Isildur Healy]

I'm probably going to be minority but I'm looking forward to Gardiner-Hanifin than Rielly-Hanifin, if we draft him.

Hanifin isn't going to reach his upside playing with Gardiner. He's going to be spending most of his time covering Gardiner's butt on defense

To me, you pair Hanifin with a veteran stay at home defensemen to start off

 

[91Kadri91*]

Pretty sure we tried everything with Gardiner last season. He's just not cut out to be a defenseman.

Yes, because being incredibly effective is not something a defenseman should be; especially when they play for the Toronto Maple Leafs! After all, what are you going to trust: common misconception that turns into rampant fallacy due to fans who know so little about what they're watching that they tune into Fan590 everyday to satiate their need for ridiculous banter and to stroke their ego with a pseudo reality, or facts? Obviously the former!

Go Leafs Go!

 

[MJ65]

Yes, because being incredibly effective is not something a defenseman should be; especially when they play for the Toronto Maple Leafs! After all, what are you going to trust: common misconception that turns into rampant fallacy due to fans who know so little about what they're watching that they tune into Fan590 everyday to satiate their need for ridiculous banter and to stroke their ego with a pseudo reality, or facts? Obviously the former!

Go Leafs Go!

Gardiner is still very young, he is never going to be a top notch defensive defense man but overall he is going to be a much better player

We can't just give up so soon on these young guns

 

[91Kadri91*]

Gardiner is still very young, he is never going to be a top notch defensive defense man but overall he is going to be a much better player

We can't just give up so soon on these young guns

He already is top-notch defensively.

 

[Stand Witness]

If we draft Hanifin (and if we do I wouldn't be shocked to see him this year) then I would be willing to give Jake one last chance on defense. If he struggles out the gate and can't put it together I would give him a fair shake at wing before making a full time decision on his future.

With the chance that Kessel moves we may be looking for another winger in the top 6 anyways. We know he can play the minutes so I say give it a go at this point.

*** I didn't forget about Phaneuf moving, I just think we already have a log jam with some prospects like Percy coming up.

 

[SeenSchenn2]

He already is top-notch defensively.

Correct.

Yes he needs to cut down on 5-star mistakes, but he limits chances and drives play better than anyone else on the defensive core.


Now back to 4th overall:

For people worried about Strome, there's a chance Marner could be like Sam Gagner (yes, I've seen Marner play in London live several times. It's unlikely, and I want Marner at 4OA), so easy on the criticism that Strome is going be some big bust.

 

[Highlander23]

between marner and hanifin !! most importantly, whoever we pick, shouldn't play for the leafs for 2 years, we need time to put a true team around these youngsters

 

[MJ65]

He already is top-notch defensively.

That's very debatable and he is not top notch defensively,and he can still improve on his defensive side

 

[Bernier the Boats]

Correct.

Yes he needs to cut down on 5-star mistakes, but he limits chances and drives play better than anyone else on the defensive core.


Now back to 4th overall:

For people worried about Strome, there's a chance Marner could be like Sam Gagner (yes, I've seen Marner play in London live several times. It's unlikely, and I want Marner at 4OA), so easy on the criticism that Strome is going be some big bust.

Heh, Gardiner is maybe the biggest discrepancy between eye test and advanced stats I have ever seen. Watching him, he looks like a solid offensive defencemen, who is absolutely porous on defence. Turns out his offensive production per 60 is pretty garbage (basically bottom pairing level), but he's an excellent shot suppressor as well as a great shot generator.

Also, Mitch skates circles around Gagner.

 

[Cor]

With Gardiner, 90% of the time he is very good defensively. But then there is the other 10%, were he just makes these brain dead, awful mistakes, that leaves everyone pissed. He's either very good, or very bad. He's a guy that can be apart of this team long-term, but it's about cutting out that 10%. Also, his decision-making needs to quicken up. Can't tell you how many times he held onto the puck too long last season.

Hanifin - Rielly.
Gardiner - Percy.

That's the ideal pairings if we draft Hanifin I think. Sucks that there are no RHD there, but both Rielly and Percy have the ability to play the right side.

 

[91Kadri91*]

If we draft Hanifin (and if we do I wouldn't be shocked to see him this year) then I would be willing to give Jake one last chance on defense. If he struggles out the gate and can't put it together I would give him a fair shake at wing before making a full time decision on his future.

WOWY

dCAImpact/dFAImpact

Usage-Adjusted Numbers (from 2012/13-2014/15)

Total By Season: GAR

CFRelTM (5 on 5 ZN-Adj.)

FFRelTM (5 on 5 ZN-Adj.)

CFRelTM (5 on 5, Close ZN-Adj.)

FFRelTM (5 on 5, Close ZN-Adj.)

For all of you who genuinely believe Gardiner is not a good hockey player, please take some time to review his effectiveness. I, and others (like Nithoniniel, SeenSchenn2, Merzinger, Paradoc etc), have already tried to present substantiated arguments that should quell the concerns of Gardiner's critics, but that's clearly not having the desired effect, so I figured it might be time for the denouncers to spend some time discovering and reviewing the data. I've given you all a place start.

 

[Swayze*]

Healthy scratch Jake is awesome

 

[The_Chosen_One]

Hanifin and Gardiner could make a very effective pair. It would enable Jake to free roam a lot more while Hanifin remains steady on the back end. It would be like a Rafalski - Neidermayer ( Gardiner) solution.

 

[Nylanders Flow]

I'd keep Hanifin & Rielly apart except on PP. You've then got a 1D on the ice for 45-50 minutes per game.

 

[Bluelines]

He already is top-notch defensively.

WOW... Gardnier is already top-notch defensively? WOW...simply ...just WOW... I guess if one sets the bar low they will never be disappointed.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Hanifin and Gardiner could make a very effective pair. It would enable Jake to free roam a lot more while Hanifin remains steady on the back end. It would be like a Rafalski - Neidermayer ( Gardiner) solution.

Hanifin would make any pair better, on just smarts alone. Even if he had to play with Gardiner.

Though I would rather see him with Rielly. Seems logical to me to put your 2 most talented D men together. Almost like when we did when Salming and Turnbull were matched up in their rookie years.

 

[The_Chosen_One]

I'd keep Hanifin & Rielly apart except on PP. You've then got a 1D on the ice for 45-50 minutes per game.

I see Reilly developing into our Shattenkirk ( #1D). Pair him with a mobile physical guy with a good outlet pass.

 

[91Kadri91*]

WOW... Gardnier is already top-notch defensively? WOW...simply ...just WOW... I guess if one sets the bar low they will never be disappointed.

And yet, your posts are always so disappointing.

 

[Nithoniniel]

With Gardiner, 90% of the time he is very good defensively. But then there is the other 10%, were he just makes these brain dead, awful mistakes, that leaves everyone pissed. He's either very good, or very bad. He's a guy that can be apart of this team long-term, but it's about cutting out that 10%. Also, his decision-making needs to quicken up. Can't tell you how many times he held onto the puck too long last season.

Hanifin - Rielly.
Gardiner - Percy.

That's the ideal pairings if we draft Hanifin I think. Sucks that there are no RHD there, but both Rielly and Percy have the ability to play the right side.

I think this is fair. The problem on this site with how people view Gardiner is that they give unproportional weight to those 10% to the point that they'd rather ignore pretty much every metric out there when it comes to his overall play.

 

[crump]

Without looking it up, who was Bobby Orr's defense partner? Potvin's, Coffey, how about Neidermayer's, Lidstrom? Leetch? Chara? Pronged? The good ones have a defensive stay at home partner in most cases. Sometimes they are both the shutdown guy and the offensive weapon from the back end. In a lot of cases their partners are switched frequently. Chances are Hannifin would play with a Polak style player, or Percy would be more likely if he makes it.

 

[Swayze*]

He already is top-notch defensively.

Dear lord.

Give it a rest. Gardiner stinks

 

[Nithoniniel]

Dear lord.

Give it a rest. Gardiner stinks

Yeah he stinks and every statistic that shows the opposite must of course be completely inaccurate. The fact that he limits shots, scoring chances and goals against better than any other D-man we have or have had the last few years is just a fluke, right?