Speculation: Who will the Leafs draft at #4 ? Part IV

[The_Chosen_One]

Hanifin would make any pair better, on just smarts alone. Even if he had to play with Gardiner.

Though I would rather see him with Rielly. Seems logical to me to put your 2 most talented D men together. Almost like when we did when Salming and Turnbull were matched up in their rookie years.

That could work considering that Gardiner has a very similar playing style to Rielly but looks more J-Bo than Letang at this point.

Eitherway, I could see Hanifin really excited. His partner was a similar rusher type even though he has more of the Piets abbrassiveness than the pure skill varieties that we have.

 

[Stand Witness]

WOWY

dCAImpact/dFAImpact

Usage-Adjusted Numbers (from 2012/13-2014/15)

Total By Season: GAR

CFRelTM (5 on 5 ZN-Adj.)

FFRelTM (5 on 5 ZN-Adj.)

CFRelTM (5 on 5, Close ZN-Adj.)

FFRelTM (5 on 5, Close ZN-Adj.)

For all of you who genuinely believe Gardiner is not a good hockey player, please take some time to review his effectiveness. I, and others (like Nithoniniel, SeenSchenn2, Merzinger, Paradoc etc), have already tried to present substantiated arguments that should quell the concerns of Gardiner's critics, but that's clearly not having the desired effect, so I figured it might be time for the denouncers to spend some time discovering and reviewing the data. I've given you all a place start.

Sorry, you can give me all the numbers you want but I still find Gardiner atrocious at defense. If Gardiner could actually play quality defense on the ice and his stats matched it then I would be inclined to believe you. But he doesn't meet the quality of play the stats say he does. Stats are just a tool to form and opinion and not the be all and end all.

If Gardiner looked amazing and the stats said he was **** it would be the same thing. The two don't match up though. One says he is good and the other says he is bad.

He has simply yet to prove he can play quality minutes in the NHL as a defenseman.

I don't need to see another bonehead give away to tell me that either and he simply didn't produce enough points to take that away either.

 

[Cor]

Without looking it up, who was Bobby Orr's defense partner? Potvin's, Coffey, how about Neidermayer's, Lidstrom? Leetch? Chara? Pronged? The good ones have a defensive stay at home partner in most cases. Sometimes they are both the shutdown guy and the offensive weapon from the back end. In a lot of cases their partners are switched frequently. Chances are Hannifin would play with a Polak style player, or Percy would be more likely if he makes it.

Neidermayer partnered with Rafalski/Stevens/Danekyo/Pronger
Lidstrom partnered with Rafalski/Schneider/Murphy/Coffey
Leetch partnered with Zubov
Chara partnered with Boychuk/Seidenberg/Ference
Pronger partnered with MacInnis/Niedermayer

 

[Bluelines]

WOWY

dCAImpact/dFAImpact

Usage-Adjusted Numbers (from 2012/13-2014/15)

Total By Season: GAR

CFRelTM (5 on 5 ZN-Adj.)

FFRelTM (5 on 5 ZN-Adj.)

CFRelTM (5 on 5, Close ZN-Adj.)

FFRelTM (5 on 5, Close ZN-Adj.)

For all of you who genuinely believe Gardiner is not a good hockey player, please take some time to review his effectiveness. I, and others (like Nithoniniel, SeenSchenn2, Merzinger, Paradoc etc), have already tried to present substantiated arguments that should quell the concerns of Gardiner's critics, but that's clearly not having the desired effect, so I figured it might be time for the denouncers to spend some time discovering and reviewing the data. I've given you all a place start.

So Jake gets easy ice time, what happens when he actually has to play vs tough opponet

 

[Nithoniniel]

EDIT: Let's drop discussing Gardiner before we get this thread derailed completely, shall we?

Sorry, you can give me all the numbers you want but I still find Gardiner atrocious at defense. If Gardiner could actually play quality defense on the ice and his stats matched it then I would be inclined to believe you. But he doesn't meet the quality of play the stats say he does. Stats are just a tool to form and opinion and not the be all and end all.

If Gardiner looked amazing and the stats said he was **** it would be the same thing. The two don't match up though. One says he is good and the other says he is bad.

He has simply yet to prove he can play quality minutes in the NHL as a defenseman.

I don't need to see another bonehead give away to tell me that either and he simply didn't produce enough points to take that away either.

So basically you are saying that you only value statistics when they agree with your pre-conceived notions? You must have high thoughts of your ability to read the game.

So Jake gets easy ice time, what happens when he actually has to play vs tough opponet

Have fun with this one, 91Kadri91. You'll learn today that PDO is a great tool to find who the quality D-men are, as it highlights awful players like Gardiner, Ekman-Larsson and Muzzin.

 

[The_Chosen_One]

Maybe I'm out to lunch.... but everytime I've seen Marner play live, I was impressed with how aware he was of anticipating a hit and he seemed to allude them with ease.... He isn't afraid to take some heat fighting for the puck however. He has been victim of a few targeted vicious hits but for the most part he plays with his head up, I don't see him running into the same issues as Skinner.

Skinner often runs into traffic with his head down. That's how Lindros career ended. One thing about Marner is that his hockey sense and his ability to anticipate the play is off the chart. We just don't notice it because of McEichel and Strome who.is also elite in that regards.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I'm resisting getting into the Jake discussion since we are talking draft. But the numbers if they indeed say he is good are wrong. You can't base a players value on solely selected numbers. Especially when one is witnessed to this player's bad play last season, and sporadically since he came into the league. We all saw it and witnessed it. We know the shortcomings. I don't think either side will say he is in the same class of Rielly or Hanifin, if we do indeed draft Hanifin.

 

[SeenSchenn2]

91Kadri91, bless you.

 

[Stand Witness]

So basically you are saying that you only value statistics when they agree with your pre-conceived notions? You must have high thoughts of your ability to read the game.

As much as it more or less sounds like, yes.

Advanced stats aren't the be all and end all. Just like watching a player isn't either. But if one is telling you that they are terrible and the other is telling you they are good then realistically it is likely somewhere in the middle. I may have came off hard on Gardiner but by watching him he is not a quality defense men. You can see by the decisions he makes he doesn't think the game through well.

If the numbers tell me a player is amazing and he visually appears to be doing the right thing and getting the job done than I wouldn't doubt it.

If the numbers tell me a player sucks and he visually sucks then I wouldn't doubt it.

If the numbers conflict with what the eye can see or vise-versa than I will probably evaluate other parts of the game that the statistics don't pick up on. I would like to be provided with a stat that tells me how a player reacts under pressure and the results of giveaways. I'd like to see a stat which measures the quality of shots against with Gardiner on the ice.

I am in business currently specializing as an accountant. I like to work with numbers but I also know that the numbers aren't the only thing to consider. There are many external factors which go into one final decision. It isn't just the numbers or just the logic (eyes) that create your final decision.

 

[MJ65]

I'm resisting getting into the Jake discussion since we are talking draft. But the numbers if they indeed say he is good are wrong. You can't base a players value on solely selected numbers. Especially when one is witnessed to this player's bad play last season, and sporadically since he came into the league. We all saw it and witnessed it. We know the shortcomings. I don't think either side will say he is in the same class of Rielly or Hanifin, if we do indeed draft Hanifin.

I am trying to stay away with any never ending arguments but Gardiner is not in the same class of either Hanifin or Rielly, there is a reason why Rielly was 5th OA pick and why Hanifin is going to be # 3 or 4 OA

He is still young and there is a room to improve but he is never going to be either Rielly or Hanifin

 

[The_Chosen_One]

Neidermayer partnered with Rafalski/Stevens/Danekyo/Pronger
Lidstrom partnered with Rafalski/Schneider/Murphy/Coffey
Leetch partnered with Zubov
Chara partnered with Boychuk/Seidenberg/Ference
Pronger partnered with MacInnis/Niedermayer

Nieds was never really a shutdown type even though he looked good with everyone. Lidstrom shut down game was all about angles and positional supremacy and he looked fine with the offensive Coffey.

Could see Hanifin really working with either Gardiner or Rielly. Throw in a mobile bruiser who can be moved around depending on situation.

 

[Nithoniniel]

As much as it more or less sounds like, yes.

Advanced stats aren't the be all and end all. Just like watching a player isn't either. But if one is telling you that they are terrible and the other is telling you they are good then realistically it is likely somewhere in the middle. I may have came off hard on Gardiner but by watching him he is not a quality defense men. You can see by the decisions he makes he doesn't think the game through well.

If the numbers tell me a player is amazing and he visually appears to be doing the right thing and getting the job done than I wouldn't doubt it.

If the numbers tell me a player sucks and he visually sucks then I wouldn't doubt it.

If the numbers conflict with what the eye can see or vise-versa than I will probably evaluate other parts of the game that the statistics don't pick up on. I would like to be provided with a stat that tells me how a player reacts under pressure and the results of giveaways. I'd like to see a stat which measures the quality of shots against with Gardiner on the ice.

I am in business currently specializing as an accountant. I like to work with numbers but I also know that the numbers aren't the only thing to consider. There are many external factors which go into one final decision. It isn't just the numbers or just the logic (eyes) that create your final decision.

EDIT: Nevermind, I'll message you so that we don't derail this thread further.

 

[Daisy Jane]

EDIT: Nevermind, I'll message you so that we don't derail this thread further.

noooooo!! NOOOO
I WANNA SEEEE!!

meanies

 

[Nithoniniel]

noooooo!! NOOOO
I WANNA SEEEE!!

meanies

Oh I'd tell you but since I sent it in a PM I obviously included a lot of private things that you really can't say/show in a public thread.

Me and Stromey is gonna share something special, just the two of us.

(Actually, I just wrote half a book about the stupidity of the human brain.)

 

[Daisy Jane]

Oh I'd tell you but since I sent it in a PM I obviously included a lot of private things that you really can't say/show in a public thread.

Me and Stromey is gonna share something special, just the two of us.

(Actually, I just wrote half a book about the stupidity of the human brain.)

okay fine. y'all share your special moment together.

i really have to wonder if there is a scenario where we trade down. (like what 'happens' for us even to consider that? what would we want to get).

I know we'll never do it i just want to talk about hypotheticals that potentially can happen

 

[The_Chosen_One]

I'm resisting getting into the Jake discussion since we are talking draft. But the numbers if they indeed say he is good are wrong. You can't base a players value on solely selected numbers. Especially when one is witnessed to this player's bad play last season, and sporadically since he came into the league. We all saw it and witnessed it. We know the shortcomings. I don't think either side will say he is in the same class of Rielly or Hanifin, if we do indeed draft Hanifin.

Overall, Gardiner is lesser than both but Hanifin is the type that can be paired with a #3 like Stralman. One complaint about Hanifin is that he's very cerebral despite possessing the explosive skating and hands to free roam. Gardiner could easily thrive in that role.

Then you build another pairing with Reilly and a mobile Seabrook type.

 

[Nithoniniel]

okay fine. y'all share your special moment together.

i really have to wonder if there is a scenario where we trade down. (like what 'happens' for us even to consider that? what would we want to get).

I know we'll never do it i just want to talk about hypotheticals that potentially can happen

The one scenario I can see us trading down in is if they think Barzal is really close to Strome or Marner. Trading down from #4 to #7 could get us a nice piece.

Personally, I trust in SprDave. He's promised he's going to procure another top 5 pick for us. I know he won't let us down.

 

[stanleyorbust]

Anyone else see Jason Allison when they look at Strome?

Big, not that physical, extremely skilled, slows down the play, but a poor skater. Not saying it as a bad thing, Allison had a 95 pt season, but his skating was career limiting

 

[91Kadri91*]

Oh I'd tell you but since I sent it in a PM I obviously included a lot of private things that you really can't say/show in a public thread.

Me and Stromey is gonna share something special, just the two of us.

(Actually, I just wrote half a book about the stupidity of the human brain.)

It appears many on this board are prone to the Dunning-Kruger effect.

 

[Stand Witness]

It appears many on this board are prone to the Dunning-Kruger effect.

It also appears many on this board overreact over simple statements.

My stance on Gardiner has not changed and we had an effective conversation on it where I was outlined some things which may or may not change my opinion on Gardiner. Until then my stance remains.

Regardless my original post that you replied to was not controversial at all. Gardiner does need to take a step forward and elevate his play and if he continues to show the same holes in his game should be given a chance at forward before he we part ways with him.

 

[dimi78]

Anyone else see Jason Allison when they look at Strome?

Big, not that physical, extremely skilled, slows down the play, but a poor skater. Not saying it as a bad thing, Allison had a 95 pt season, but his skating was career limiting

Injuries like concussions and his personal life dealing with a nasty divorce with children in the middle of it all was career limiting and ending. Allison was a beast and a legit top line center.

In his last year in the NHL after 3 years being out of the game for reasons posted above playing behind Sundin and Antropov with Poni as his wingers he had 60 points in 67 games which is better than the great Bozak we've been running for 6 years now as the #1. Another example of a good player hated for no reason at all as a Leaf

If Strome is to become like Allison as I believe his jr coach compared him to Allison then that's freaking amazing to have on your team.

 

[Swayze*]

Yeah he stinks and every statistic that shows the opposite must of course be completely inaccurate. The fact that he limits shots, scoring chances and goals against better than any other D-man we have or have had the last few years is just a fluke, right?

Give him hard minutes and all of those junk stats go straight out the window.

He's soft and dumb

 

[Nylanderthal]

Anyone else see Jason Allison when they look at Strome?

Big, not that physical, extremely skilled, slows down the play, but a poor skater. Not saying it as a bad thing, Allison had a 95 pt season, but his skating was career limiting

I do, he just doesn't appear to have that the mobility to keep up, sure there are guys who slow the game down to their pace, but you're talking about a select few, some of whom are amongst the greatest players we've witnessed (Mario, jumbo Joe, kopitar) I just don't see that in him. I take Marner 10/10, or hanifin especially everyday of the week, and twice on Sundays. Hanifin, rielly and Gardiner is a solid foundation to build the blue line on going forward. Add a defensive beast who can move on the right side and in 5 years you're looking st the preds blue line 2.0

 

[Bluelines]

It appears many on this board are prone to the Dunning-Kruger effect.

This is precious... Ahhh... the irony...

 

[hfdshdh]

Tyler Johnson's size really seems to be holding him back.