Speculation: Who will not be back on the roster for 2018/19

[DeepFrickinValue]

This is not one of those 'no question' choices, like chocolate vs vanilla. It's more like a $37.5M hypothetical that requires a bit more thought.
-Check out their respective ages
-then check out a chart showing how productivity drops with age
-then check out how Paul's father, Peter Stastny, Petered out in his mid-thirties, keeping in mind that Peter was the better player and the more prolific scoring of that era
-then check out Little and Stastny's lifetime P/60 and see how close they are, keeping in mid this was a down year for Little and an up year for Stastny, especially the last half of it
-then look up recency bias
-then check out Andrew Ladd's contract with NYI and see how that's worked for them
-Oh yeah, then there's that annoying NMC, which Little will not waive, nor will he be asked to do so.

PS-I'll take chocolate, no question....

One of the better posts this year.

 

[JetBrett]

i wouldn't be shocked if we moved Little. would be pretty surprised but not shocked if we moved Ehlers. this is based on his disappearance in the playoffs and that 1 game he missed due to being "sick"

There's no way the Jets are giving up on a 22 year old, 30 goal/60 point player with speed to burn because of one bad playoff year.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Maurice clearly doesn't like Perrault at C as he was never able to find a combo that worked, but he definitely can play the position. Might be the Jets best faceoff man, so not sure where all this comes from.

Perreault has said point blank to the media that "years of taking face-offs since childhood have taken a toll on me." This statement was made last season upon returning from his chronic back problem...which exists and is exacerbated from taking face-offs with regularity.

In addition as you point one Maurice believes he plays better at wing.

Will Perreault play centre again? Perhaps to help out during an injury, but over the next 3 seasons and 246 games I'd expect a healthy Perreult to play left wing 246 times.

The point of my response was so casual fans stopped inserting him at centre. You don't need to encourage them.

 

[mondo3]

Bridging Morrissey seems like short term thinking to me, as during the season and playoffs I thought he was our best or second best defenseman. To me he’s the kind of player I’d want locked up long term (even more than Trouba)

 

[kittiecarlyle]

Maurice clearly doesn't like Perrault at C as he was never able to find a combo that worked, but he definitely can play the position. Might be the Jets best faceoff man, so not sure where all this comes from.

Maurice clearly doesn't like Perreault at C because he isn't really an option for the Jets beyond a short fill in and why is that? It is because he is not very good at at that spot, is more spotty there than he is at LW and less productive.


It was evident before the Jets signed him it is much more so now. On the Jets he is at best a 3 LW, at times quite good there, other times pretty inconsistent with points, as we have continually seen. Third and fourth line left wings are something the Jets have and fill from within inexpensively. It is also a spot where a college or European FA signing would slot in. Clearly some moves will have to be made and logically a couple of players will likely be those moves. Not guaranteed but more likely than not. It is the way of the cap era.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Bridging Morrissey seems like short term thinking to me, as during the season and playoffs I thought he was our best or second best defenseman. To me he’s the kind of player I’d want locked up long term (even more than Trouba)

The issue isn't whether Morrissey deserves a long term contract over Trouba. Josh was our best defencemen in the playoffs.

Bridging him creates cap space helping the team to compete now and make other long term signings that are more pressing at the moment.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Bridging Morrissey seems like short term thinking to me, as during the season and playoffs I thought he was our best or second best defenseman. To me he’s the kind of player I’d want locked up long term (even more than Trouba)

He certainly was. Third best defensemen in this years playoffs with regards to shot attempts differential.

A 2-3 year bridge deal can create $2-$3 million in cap space.

Someone's got to be bridged. All the cap problems that some feel begin next year occur only because their suggestions are bridging no one.

Players like Trouba on their 3rd contract need to be locked up. Players on their second like Morrissey can be bridged. It may be short term thinking, but it's in the teams best interest now.

 

[Channelcat]

I'm a huge Perrault fan, and I wouldn't move him. Plus he's got 3 more years with a ltd nmc. He could still be expendable, if they're forced, but I'd be surprised to see it happen.

I'm sure we'll be talking about it ad nauseum, but I bet it ends up being Trouba moving out.

 

[Channelcat]

Players like Trouba on their 3rd contract need to be locked up. Players on their second like Morrissey can be bridged. It may be short term thinking, but it's in the teams best interest now.

They could still do what Nsh did with Ellis and just buy the remaining RFA years cheap. Of course that makes it likely you lose him as I'm sure Nsh will lose Ellis. This is what I'd attempt to do, then move him in 2020.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Statsny won't be back
Trouba is probably number 1 to deal with
Morrissey and Hellys contracts are number 2
Lowry,Copp and Armia are 3
Trade a few scrap parts for draft picks are 4

 

[HannuJ]

There's no way the Jets are giving up on a 22 year old, 30 goal/60 point player with speed to burn because of one bad playoff year.

There is a very small chance. But there is a chance.
My gut says there is more to his "sick" scratch

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

There is a very small chance. But there is a chance.
My gut says there is more to his "sick" scratch

My gut was leaning this way initially, but the casual, near whimsical manner with which the situation was addressed by all involved in the days following had me change my mind.

 

[kittiecarlyle]

Statsny won't be back
Trouba is probably number 1 to deal with
Morrissey and Hellys contracts are number 2
Lowry,Copp and Armia are 3
Trade a few scrap parts for draft picks are 4

Stastny not being back is far from definite imo. I have no doubts Chevy believes the Jets need a viable 2C, he has proven he does. Another scenario like last trade deadline is possible but not optimal, why pay a high cost again for a one year player? Signing Stastny would cost no assets besides dollars and in order to do that you move some expendable pieces to accommodate that.

Blanket statements that he won't be back aren't guaranteed to be accurate.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Stastny not being back is far from definite imo. I have no doubts Chevy believes the Jets need a viable 2C, he has proven he does. Another scenario like last trade deadline is possible but not optimal, why pay a high cost again for a one year player? Signing Stastny would cost no assets besides dollars and in order to do that you move some expendable pieces to accommodate that.

Blanket statements that he won't be back aren't guaranteed to be accurate.

He won't be, he will get a good deal from Colorado and go there. His family is living there. Chevy won't be spending this summer when he has things to do internally. If they need some depth for the playoffs next year then he will make a move then. This team is more then good enough to win the west outright next year

 

[puck stoppa]

Statsny won't be back
Trouba is probably number 1 to deal with
Morrissey and Hellys contracts are number 2
Lowry,Copp and Armia are 3
Trade a few scrap parts for draft picks are 4

Good call. Does Myers fall under 4 as scrap parts
I think they need to open up a spot for Poolman, the problem is depth on the right side if you trade Myers. After Buff, Trouba, Poolman were thin RD. I see them keeping Myers. Unless morrow and Chariot fill in for injuries on right side. Niku will get more than a cup of tea next year too on the left.

 

[Upperdeckjet]

Stastny not being back is far from definite imo. I have no doubts Chevy believes the Jets need a viable 2C, he has proven he does. Another scenario like last trade deadline is possible but not optimal, why pay a high cost again for a one year player? Signing Stastny would cost no assets besides dollars and in order to do that you move some expendable pieces to accommodate that.

Blanket statements that he won't be back aren't guaranteed to be accurate.

I think when any of us make blanket statements we are stating opinion. I just generally accept that.

I know I'm guilty of it as well.

 

[raideralex99]

It's interesting reading every ones comments and thoughts but I am not worried about who stays and who goes because Chevy has proven himself over and over again ... he knows what he is doing.
I don't have a problem with any of the players the Jets have. Yes there's a couple of players that fans do not want back but hey for the right price they are welcomed to stay.
Seriously how soon do people forget ... the team that's in the final is made up of castoffs and just look at all the injuries the Jets had this season.

 

[jetsfaneh]

Does Chevy look at this gang and see a conference final and 2nd best record in the regular season and keep them together thinking that another year for the young guys is the answer? Or does he see how top heavy our scoring is and a need for more secondary scoring in the bottom 6?

You can make the case to keep the team as is or close to. But guys like Niku, Vesalainen, Appleton and even Petan and Lemieux should be given a chance to crack the club. Vesalainen and Appleton definitely have offense to their games. I think we know how much offense guys like Copp and Tanev bring. Good players at what they do. But limited upside.

Dano and Matthias were never threats to get into the lineup over someone else. Maybe we need a press box of guys that will push to play in the lineup every single week. Constant competition. Graduating a couple of our young guys could provide this. Those Appleton and Vesalainen videos are impressive.

 

[JetBrett]

Stastny not being back is far from definite imo. I have no doubts Chevy believes the Jets need a viable 2C, he has proven he does. Another scenario like last trade deadline is possible but not optimal, why pay a high cost again for a one year player? Signing Stastny would cost no assets besides dollars and in order to do that you move some expendable pieces to accommodate that.

Blanket statements that he won't be back aren't guaranteed to be accurate.

I have no doubt Chevy would like to have him back, but his hands are tied to an extent. The cap crunch upcoming is real, and Wheeler is up after next season and if he had to choose he's signing the captain over Stats. The only way it works is if he moves out some other pieces, but with no trades and no moves it's difficult, and some of those guys value isn't as high right now.

Do you want both Wheeler and Statsny making 6 mil or more at age 37 in the Jets lineup?

 

[Adam da bomb]

Does Chevy look at this gang and see a conference final and 2nd best record in the regular season and keep them together thinking that another year for the young guys is the answer? Or does he see how top heavy our scoring is and a need for more secondary scoring in the bottom 6?

You can make the case to keep the team as is or close to. But guys like Niku, Vesalainen, Appleton and even Petan and Lemieux should be given a chance to crack the club. Vesalainen and Appleton definitely have offense to their games. I think we know how much offense guys like Copp and Tanev bring. Good players at what they do. But limited upside.

Dano and Matthias were never threats to get into the lineup over someone else. Maybe we need a press box of guys that will push to play in the lineup every single week. Constant competition. Graduating a couple of our young guys could provide this. Those Appleton and Vesalainen videos are impressive.

Tanev had more goals in the playoffs than little Perrault ehlers so I wouldn't dismiss his offensive contribution.

 

[surixon]

He certainly was. Third best defensemen in this years playoffs with regards to shot attempts differential.
View attachment 121947

A 2-3 year bridge deal can create $2-$3 million in cap space.

Someone's got to be bridged. All the cap problems that some feel begin next year occur only because their suggestions are bridging no one.

Players like Trouba on their 3rd contract need to be locked up. Players on their second like Morrissey can be bridged. It may be short term thinking, but it's in the teams best interest now.

The issue I have with bridging him is that it effectively only buys one year of cap benefit 19-20. Bridging him next year results in marginal impact and isn't the difference with regards to keeping a guy like Statsny or Myers.

Scenario 1: Morrissy bridge team stays the same less Statsney:

Forwards
Line	Left Wing	Center	Right Wing	Total
1	Connor, Kyle	Scheifele, Mark	Laine, Patrick
	1,775,000	6,125,000	3,575,000	11,475,000
2	Ehlers, Nick	Little, Brian	Wheeler, Blake
	6,000,000	5,291,666	5,600,000	16,891,666
3	Perrault, Mathieu	Roslovic, Jack	Armia, Joel
	4,125,000	1,106,666	2,000,000	7,231,666
4	Copp, Andew	Lowry, Adam	Tanev, Brandon
	1,000,000	3,500,000	1,000,000	5,500,000
Extras	Extra 1	Extra 2
	800,000			800,000
Froward total				41,898,332
Defense
Pair	Left Defense	Right Defense
1	Morrissey, Josh	Trouba, Jacob
	3,000,000	6,500,000		9,500,000
2	Morrow, Joe	Byfuglien, Dustin
	1,000,000	7,600,000		8,600,000
3	Myers, Tyler	Kulikov, Dmitry
	5,500,000	4,333,333		9,833,333
Extras	Chariot	Poolman, Tucker
	1,400,000	1,000,000		2,400,000
Defense Total				30,333,333
Goalies	Starter	Backup
	Hellebuyck, Connor	Mason
	5,250,000	4,100,000		9,350,000
Grand Total				81,581,665
Estimated Cap Ceiling				80,000,000
Cap space remaining				- 1,581,665

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

As can be seen even bridging JoMo results in the Jets being $1.5 million over the cap. That means that no matter what a large contract has to be moved out. You won't be able to get the required savings by down grading a guy like Armia to a player on his ELC.

Scenario two:

Bridge Morrissey and somehow get rid of Mason without taking any cash back:

Forwards
Line	Left Wing	Center	Right Wing	Total
1	Connor, Kyle	Scheifele, Mark	Laine, Patrick
	1,775,000	6,125,000	3,575,000	11,475,000
2	Ehlers, Nick	Little, Brian	Wheeler, Blake
	6,000,000	5,291,666	5,600,000	16,891,666
3	Perrault, Mathieu	Roslovic, Jack	Armia, Joel
	4,125,000	1,106,666	2,000,000	7,231,666
4	Copp, Andew	Lowry, Adam	Tanev, Brandon
	1,000,000	3,500,000	1,000,000	5,500,000
Extras	Extra 1	Extra 2
	800,000			800,000
Froward total				41,898,332
Defense
Pair	Left Defense	Right Defense
1	Morrissey, Josh	Trouba, Jacob
	3,000,000	6,500,000		9,500,000
2	Morrow, Joe	Byfuglien, Dustin
	1,000,000	7,600,000		8,600,000
3	Myers, Tyler	Kulikov, Dmitry
	5,500,000	4,333,333		9,833,333
Extras	Chariot	Poolman, Tucker
	1,400,000	1,000,000		2,400,000
Defense Total				30,333,333
Goalies	Starter	Backup
	Hellebuyck, Connor	X
	5,250,000	1,500,000		6,750,000
Grand Total				78,981,665
Estimated Cap Ceiling				80,000,000
Cap space remaining				1,018,335

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Only scenario that allows us to keep the status quo with a Morrissey bridge

Statsney Scenario's:

Bridging Morrissey and finding a way to get rid of Mason as shown above opens up 1 million in cap space (Make that two with a million dollar player coming out of the roster for him) We would still need to find 4 million.

Scenario 3: Morrissey bridge, Mason deal, Perrault dealt, Armia dealt:

Forwards
Line	Left Wing	Center	Right Wing	Total
1	Connor, Kyle	Scheifele, Mark	Laine, Patrick
	1,775,000	6,125,000	3,575,000	11,475,000
2	Ehlers, Nick	Little, Brian	Wheeler, Blake
	6,000,000	5,291,666	5,600,000	16,891,666
3	Vesalainen, Kristian	Statsny, Paul	Roslovic, Jack
	1,106,666	6,000,000	1,106,666	8,213,332
4	Copp, Andew	Lowry, Adam	Tanev, Brandon
	1,000,000	3,500,000	1,000,000	5,500,000
Extras	Extra 1	Extra 2
	800,000			800,000
Froward total				42,879,998
Defense
Pair	Left Defense	Right Defense
1	Morrissey, Josh	Trouba, Jacob
	3,000,000	6,500,000		9,500,000
2	Morrow, Joe	Byfuglien, Dustin
	1,000,000	7,600,000		8,600,000
3	Myers, Tyler	Kulikov, Dmitry
	5,500,000	4,333,333		9,833,333
Extras	Chariot	Poolman, Tucker
	1,400,000	1,000,000		2,400,000
Defense Total				30,333,333
Goalies	Starter	Backup
	Hellebuyck, Connor	X
	5,250,000	1,500,000		6,750,000
Grand Total				79,963,331
Estimated Cap Ceiling				80,000,000
Cap space remaining				36,669

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This scenario barely gives us enough cap space to keep Statsny. I don't see the org being that tight especially considering you need space for injuries. We also weaken our depth by trying to keep an aging ok player. To me its not worth it.

Lock your core down long term and don't worry about overpaying the fringe good vets like Myers and Perrault.

 

[StatisticsAddict99]

KC Scheif Laine ...8m
Ehlers Tavares Wheeler ...19m
MP Little Roslo ...8m
Copp Lowry Armia ...6m
Tanev Dano ...2m

Morrissey Trouba ...10m
de Haan Buff ...12m
Kuli Poolman ...5.3m
Morrow ...1m

Helle Mason ...8.6m

Tavares gets 7.5m x 3 with yearly payments of 10m, 9m and 3.5m.
De Haan gets 4.4m x 5.
Petan, Myers and Chiarot traded and Morrissey bridged for 3m per year for two years. Trouba gets 6 x 7m.
Niku and Vaseline putting the finishing touches on their game before they start with the big team.
Perreault and Wheeler possibly moved to make room for more monies for Laine.

If we went after him in the off-season(assuming he doesn’t re-sign) I think we’d have the best chance amongst any team. But then we’d be in real Cap hell.. Also why would we sign De Haan when we have a cheaper option(that’s already in his ELC) in Niku.

 

[surixon]

As I showed above the Jets will have to move out 2 of Mason/Myers/Perrault plus a solid depth piece like Armia to fit Statsney's cap hit in. To me that is just too many marquee transactions that would need to be accomplished just to fit him in. In a trade adverse league I just don't see it being feasible.

Also it would mean the Jets would have to rush a number of younger prospects like Ves in order to make it work. I can't see the org deviating from its development model to accommodate this.

 

[razorsedge]

If someone offered a a good return for Perreault I would move him at the draft.You can easily pick up a rental like him at the trade deadline if needed..

True. But thats if an offer is made. I'm just saying I'd be picking up the phone and calling GM's asking if they are interested in Myers.

 

[jetsfaneh]

Tanev had more goals in the playoffs than little Perrault ehlers so I wouldn't dismiss his offensive contribution.

But only 8 during the year. He will never be a consistent scorer.