Speculation: Who will not be back on the roster for 2018/19

[GNP]

Who likely will not be back next season

1) Paul Statsny -going on 33 yrs old- getting slow, wants $ 5.5 mil /4 years
( bad deal to sign him when Roslovic can replace him ,and produce more)
IMO -- This would be a "terrible signing"

2) Toby Enstrom- we don't need his $ 5.5 mil contract-have proven we can win without him - he's very injury prone--has no "point shot" Personally, I like Kulikov, Morrow, and or Chiarot to fill this space--Toby will "not" be missed.
( only way Chevy signs Toby is for $ 1.5 mil--just as a "backup"-- "no more")

3) Steve Mason -- its a tough one as we need a good backup-- but his health is questionable, and he's being paid big bucs to warm the bench.
( if Chevy can trade him he"will"-and look for a cheaper backup-who would take him ???--buyout maybe ??)

4) Mathias, Dano, Hendricks will not be back--they are not good enough to make the club--so why leave them hanging around.

5) Petan--questionable, and may be bundled up in a trade package- and traded.

6) Perrault--didn't do anything in the playoffs--very injury prone, and it would not surprise me to see the Jet's trade him and go with their "youth." Do we need his $ 4.3 mil contract for the results we get. I think they look to Lemieux or Appleton to fill this role.

( would not surprise me to see Perrault bundled with Trouba or Myers and traded for a center- however we may not need to as I think Roslovic will fill in fine.)

Most all the other players will all be back, as we're certainly on an "upward trend"

The above are the players-that will be foremost on the Jet's "no sign list"

 

[Ducky10]

I really hope Chevy looks at this wcf series and how bad the jets were and then look at Maurice

He won't, nor should he.

 

[KingBogo]

I'm just going by what's on cap friendly.

Bryan Little - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

At the time of signing it was reported that Little's NMC was extended to cover this season as well. Not sure if it is technically binding, but True North would never go back on that so it might as well be.

 

[KingBogo]

He certainly was. Third best defensemen in this years playoffs with regards to shot attempts differential.
View attachment 121947

A 2-3 year bridge deal can create $2-$3 million in cap space.

Someone's got to be bridged. All the cap problems that some feel begin next year occur only because their suggestions are bridging no one.

Players like Trouba on their 3rd contract need to be locked up. Players on their second like Morrissey can be bridged. It may be short term thinking, but it's in the teams best interest now.

Bridging Morrissey for 2 years allows for Myers and Kulikov to come off the books, and gets us to Buff's last year of his and to Little's NMC turning to a modified NTC. Chevy will need to juggle contract demands very carefully.

 

[ffh]

armia hopefully. started the playoffs on the 2nd line dropped to 3rd then 4th and finally the press box. this guy is not niederreiter like some thought.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

The issue I have with bridging him is that it effectively only buys one year of cap benefit 19-20. Bridging him next year results in marginal impact and isn't the difference with regards to keeping a guy like Statsny or Myers.

Scenario 1: Morrissy bridge team stays the same less Statsney:

Forwards
Line	Left Wing	Center	Right Wing	Total
1	Connor, Kyle	Scheifele, Mark	Laine, Patrick
	1,775,000	6,125,000	3,575,000	11,475,000
2	Ehlers, Nick	Little, Brian	Wheeler, Blake
	6,000,000	5,291,666	5,600,000	16,891,666
3	Perrault, Mathieu	Roslovic, Jack	Armia, Joel
	4,125,000	1,106,666	2,000,000	7,231,666
4	Copp, Andew	Lowry, Adam	Tanev, Brandon
	1,000,000	3,500,000	1,000,000	5,500,000
Extras	Extra 1	Extra 2
	800,000			800,000
Froward total				41,898,332
Defense
Pair	Left Defense	Right Defense
1	Morrissey, Josh	Trouba, Jacob
	3,000,000	6,500,000		9,500,000
2	Morrow, Joe	Byfuglien, Dustin
	1,000,000	7,600,000		8,600,000
3	Myers, Tyler	Kulikov, Dmitry
	5,500,000	4,333,333		9,833,333
Extras	Chariot	Poolman, Tucker
	1,400,000	1,000,000		2,400,000
Defense Total				30,333,333
Goalies	Starter	Backup
	Hellebuyck, Connor	Mason
	5,250,000	4,100,000		9,350,000
Grand Total				81,581,665
Estimated Cap Ceiling				80,000,000
Cap space remaining				- 1,581,665

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

As can be seen even bridging JoMo results in the Jets being $1.5 million over the cap. That means that no matter what a large contract has to be moved out. You won't be able to get the required savings by down grading a guy like Armia to a player on his ELC.

Scenario two:

Bridge Morrissey and somehow get rid of Mason without taking any cash back:

Forwards
Line	Left Wing	Center	Right Wing	Total
1	Connor, Kyle	Scheifele, Mark	Laine, Patrick
	1,775,000	6,125,000	3,575,000	11,475,000
2	Ehlers, Nick	Little, Brian	Wheeler, Blake
	6,000,000	5,291,666	5,600,000	16,891,666
3	Perrault, Mathieu	Roslovic, Jack	Armia, Joel
	4,125,000	1,106,666	2,000,000	7,231,666
4	Copp, Andew	Lowry, Adam	Tanev, Brandon
	1,000,000	3,500,000	1,000,000	5,500,000
Extras	Extra 1	Extra 2
	800,000			800,000
Froward total				41,898,332
Defense
Pair	Left Defense	Right Defense
1	Morrissey, Josh	Trouba, Jacob
	3,000,000	6,500,000		9,500,000
2	Morrow, Joe	Byfuglien, Dustin
	1,000,000	7,600,000		8,600,000
3	Myers, Tyler	Kulikov, Dmitry
	5,500,000	4,333,333		9,833,333
Extras	Chariot	Poolman, Tucker
	1,400,000	1,000,000		2,400,000
Defense Total				30,333,333
Goalies	Starter	Backup
	Hellebuyck, Connor	X
	5,250,000	1,500,000		6,750,000
Grand Total				78,981,665
Estimated Cap Ceiling				80,000,000
Cap space remaining				1,018,335

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Only scenario that allows us to keep the status quo with a Morrissey bridge

Statsney Scenario's:

Bridging Morrissey and finding a way to get rid of Mason as shown above opens up 1 million in cap space (Make that two with a million dollar player coming out of the roster for him) We would still need to find 4 million.

Scenario 3: Morrissey bridge, Mason deal, Perrault dealt, Armia dealt:

Forwards
Line	Left Wing	Center	Right Wing	Total
1	Connor, Kyle	Scheifele, Mark	Laine, Patrick
	1,775,000	6,125,000	3,575,000	11,475,000
2	Ehlers, Nick	Little, Brian	Wheeler, Blake
	6,000,000	5,291,666	5,600,000	16,891,666
3	Vesalainen, Kristian	Statsny, Paul	Roslovic, Jack
	1,106,666	6,000,000	1,106,666	8,213,332
4	Copp, Andew	Lowry, Adam	Tanev, Brandon
	1,000,000	3,500,000	1,000,000	5,500,000
Extras	Extra 1	Extra 2
	800,000			800,000
Froward total				42,879,998
Defense
Pair	Left Defense	Right Defense
1	Morrissey, Josh	Trouba, Jacob
	3,000,000	6,500,000		9,500,000
2	Morrow, Joe	Byfuglien, Dustin
	1,000,000	7,600,000		8,600,000
3	Myers, Tyler	Kulikov, Dmitry
	5,500,000	4,333,333		9,833,333
Extras	Chariot	Poolman, Tucker
	1,400,000	1,000,000		2,400,000
Defense Total				30,333,333
Goalies	Starter	Backup
	Hellebuyck, Connor	X
	5,250,000	1,500,000		6,750,000
Grand Total				79,963,331
Estimated Cap Ceiling				80,000,000
Cap space remaining				36,669

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This scenario barely gives us enough cap space to keep Statsny. I don't see the org being that tight especially considering you need space for injuries. We also weaken our depth by trying to keep an aging ok player. To me its not worth it.

Lock your core down long term and don't worry about overpaying the fringe good vets like Myers and Perrault.

It's a fairly good assessment. Chevy certainly has a busy summer.

Past seasons have seen him sign his free agent in ascending order by salary. If I were to guess why, I'd stay this allows him to present a case that all team members are making sacrifices to keep the roster intact.

Perhaps this season is different, but for arguments sakes something as basic as signing each of our 9 RFA's to an average of $250,000 less than your suggested values saves the team $2.25 million, bringing us under the cap.

In my scenario Lowry, Hellebuyck & Trouba shoulder this burden. Remember that AAV is simply each players average salary. 6 year deals for both Trouba, Hellebuyck & Lowry with fluctuating salaries each year can get these numbers where Chevy needs them to be.

Dano $900,000
Petan $925,000
Poolman $1,000,000 (even)
Tanev $1,000,000 (even)
Morrow $1,000,000 (even)
Armia $2,000,000 (even)
Lowry $2,750,000 ($750,000 savings)
Morrissey $3,000,000 (even)
Hellebuyck $4,500,000 ($750,000)
Trouba $5,750,000 ($750,000 savings)

I've mentioned elsewhere that 2 trades are unquestionably occurring as Chevy will not be allowing either Dano or Petan to be lost to waivers. Perhaps a veteran is traded instead...perhaps not. But there will be some moves.

Draft & develop got us this far, but a free agent signing that gets us another top centre is the immediate need for seasons to come & doing so saves Chevy from paying premium prices at the trade deadline. We can't continue trading away 1st round picks for rentals.

 

[HannuJ]

You move on from Little once you have seciseca talented 2 or 3 centre that can help Ehlers and Laine score. We do not have one in our system unless Petan wakes up

 

[jetsfaneh]

You move on from Little once you have seciseca talented 2 or 3 centre that can help Ehlers and Laine score. We do not have one in our system unless Petan wakes up

Petan was a point a game player in the A this year. 52 points in 52 games. If he played all year in the AHL at that pace he may have lead the whole league in points. Certainly in the top 5 or 10. So I wouldn't rule him out of the picture just yet. Roslovic was just over a point a game (35 in 32).

 

[surixon]

It's a fairly good assessment. Chevy certainly has a busy summer.

Past seasons have seen him sign his free agent in ascending order by salary. If I were to guess why, I'd stay this allows him to present a case that all team members are making sacrifices to keep the roster intact.

Perhaps this season is different, but for arguments sakes something as basic as signing each of our 9 RFA's to an average of $250,000 less than your suggested values saves the team $2.25 million, bringing us under the cap.

In my scenario Lowry, Hellebuyck & Trouba shoulder this burden. Remember that AAV is simply each players average salary. 6 year deals for both Trouba, Hellebuyck & Lowry with fluctuating salaries each year can get these numbers where Chevy needs them to be.

Dano $900,000
Petan $925,000
Poolman $1,000,000 (even)
Tanev $1,000,000 (even)
Morrow $1,000,000 (even)
Armia $2,000,000 (even)
Lowry $2,750,000 ($750,000 savings)
Morrissey $3,000,000 (even)
Hellebuyck $4,500,000 ($750,000)
Trouba $5,750,000 ($750,000 savings)

I've mentioned elsewhere that 2 trades are without doubt occurring as I doubt Chevy will be allowing either Dano or Petan to be lost to waivers. Perhaps a veteran is traded instead...perhaps not. But there will be some moves.

Draft & develop got us this far, but a free agent signing that gets us another top centre is the immediate need for seasons to come & doing so saves Chevy from paying premium prices at the trade deadline. We can't continue trading away 1st round picks for rentals.

I would agree with you on how Chevy trys to operate from a contract point of view. I do however think that Trouba is far too low as there really isn't a case to be made for Trouba being that low based on the market. Even if he where to do the team a favor your likely only getting him around 6.25 million not 5.75. Given his agent the best we can hope for is the lower end of market and not well below market value as you have him at. Helle I am not sure on as goalie contracts seem to be all over the map, I decided to be conservative and go higher. Lowry is the union rep on the team, if he gives a discount it wont be anything substantial like a 750 K a year thing.

 

[Adam da bomb]

You save so much money on that 3rd line by going k-ves rosie Armia. That 4 mil saving is enough to pay everyone else.

 

[surixon]

You save so much money on that 3rd line by going k-ves rosie Armia. That 4 mil saving is enough to pay everyone else.

Yes but is it an effective line? Is Roslovic ready to do all of the heavy lifting as a C without a good vet like Perrault to help tilt the ice for him. We also have no idea if Ves is NHL ready. If he isn't we are in a bit of trouble unless Petan is able to play in that position.

 

[KingBogo]

The issue I have with bridging him is that it effectively only buys one year of cap benefit 19-20. Bridging him next year results in marginal impact and isn't the difference with regards to keeping a guy like Statsny or Myers.

Scenario 1: Morrissy bridge team stays the same less Statsney:

Forwards
Line	Left Wing	Center	Right Wing	Total
1	Connor, Kyle	Scheifele, Mark	Laine, Patrick
	1,775,000	6,125,000	3,575,000	11,475,000
2	Ehlers, Nick	Little, Brian	Wheeler, Blake
	6,000,000	5,291,666	5,600,000	16,891,666
3	Perrault, Mathieu	Roslovic, Jack	Armia, Joel
	4,125,000	1,106,666	2,000,000	7,231,666
4	Copp, Andew	Lowry, Adam	Tanev, Brandon
	1,000,000	3,500,000	1,000,000	5,500,000
Extras	Extra 1	Extra 2
	800,000			800,000
Froward total				41,898,332
Defense
Pair	Left Defense	Right Defense
1	Morrissey, Josh	Trouba, Jacob
	3,000,000	6,500,000		9,500,000
2	Morrow, Joe	Byfuglien, Dustin
	1,000,000	7,600,000		8,600,000
3	Myers, Tyler	Kulikov, Dmitry
	5,500,000	4,333,333		9,833,333
Extras	Chariot	Poolman, Tucker
	1,400,000	1,000,000		2,400,000
Defense Total				30,333,333
Goalies	Starter	Backup
	Hellebuyck, Connor	Mason
	5,250,000	4,100,000		9,350,000
Grand Total				81,581,665
Estimated Cap Ceiling				80,000,000
Cap space remaining				- 1,581,665

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

As can be seen even bridging JoMo results in the Jets being $1.5 million over the cap. That means that no matter what a large contract has to be moved out. You won't be able to get the required savings by down grading a guy like Armia to a player on his ELC.

Scenario two:

Bridge Morrissey and somehow get rid of Mason without taking any cash back:

Forwards
Line	Left Wing	Center	Right Wing	Total
1	Connor, Kyle	Scheifele, Mark	Laine, Patrick
	1,775,000	6,125,000	3,575,000	11,475,000
2	Ehlers, Nick	Little, Brian	Wheeler, Blake
	6,000,000	5,291,666	5,600,000	16,891,666
3	Perrault, Mathieu	Roslovic, Jack	Armia, Joel
	4,125,000	1,106,666	2,000,000	7,231,666
4	Copp, Andew	Lowry, Adam	Tanev, Brandon
	1,000,000	3,500,000	1,000,000	5,500,000
Extras	Extra 1	Extra 2
	800,000			800,000
Froward total				41,898,332
Defense
Pair	Left Defense	Right Defense
1	Morrissey, Josh	Trouba, Jacob
	3,000,000	6,500,000		9,500,000
2	Morrow, Joe	Byfuglien, Dustin
	1,000,000	7,600,000		8,600,000
3	Myers, Tyler	Kulikov, Dmitry
	5,500,000	4,333,333		9,833,333
Extras	Chariot	Poolman, Tucker
	1,400,000	1,000,000		2,400,000
Defense Total				30,333,333
Goalies	Starter	Backup
	Hellebuyck, Connor	X
	5,250,000	1,500,000		6,750,000
Grand Total				78,981,665
Estimated Cap Ceiling				80,000,000
Cap space remaining				1,018,335

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Only scenario that allows us to keep the status quo with a Morrissey bridge

Statsney Scenario's:

Bridging Morrissey and finding a way to get rid of Mason as shown above opens up 1 million in cap space (Make that two with a million dollar player coming out of the roster for him) We would still need to find 4 million.

Scenario 3: Morrissey bridge, Mason deal, Perrault dealt, Armia dealt:

Forwards
Line	Left Wing	Center	Right Wing	Total
1	Connor, Kyle	Scheifele, Mark	Laine, Patrick
	1,775,000	6,125,000	3,575,000	11,475,000
2	Ehlers, Nick	Little, Brian	Wheeler, Blake
	6,000,000	5,291,666	5,600,000	16,891,666
3	Vesalainen, Kristian	Statsny, Paul	Roslovic, Jack
	1,106,666	6,000,000	1,106,666	8,213,332
4	Copp, Andew	Lowry, Adam	Tanev, Brandon
	1,000,000	3,500,000	1,000,000	5,500,000
Extras	Extra 1	Extra 2
	800,000			800,000
Froward total				42,879,998
Defense
Pair	Left Defense	Right Defense
1	Morrissey, Josh	Trouba, Jacob
	3,000,000	6,500,000		9,500,000
2	Morrow, Joe	Byfuglien, Dustin
	1,000,000	7,600,000		8,600,000
3	Myers, Tyler	Kulikov, Dmitry
	5,500,000	4,333,333		9,833,333
Extras	Chariot	Poolman, Tucker
	1,400,000	1,000,000		2,400,000
Defense Total				30,333,333
Goalies	Starter	Backup
	Hellebuyck, Connor	X
	5,250,000	1,500,000		6,750,000
Grand Total				79,963,331
Estimated Cap Ceiling				80,000,000
Cap space remaining				36,669

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This scenario barely gives us enough cap space to keep Statsny. I don't see the org being that tight especially considering you need space for injuries. We also weaken our depth by trying to keep an aging ok player. To me its not worth it.

Lock your core down long term and don't worry about overpaying the fringe good vets like Myers and Perrault.

I like the charts. I think scenario #1 is most likely. I think we get there shaving a couple of your salaries.

 

[ffh]

You move on from Little once you have seciseca talented 2 or 3 centre that can help Ehlers and Laine score. We do not have one in our system unless Petan wakes up

I was feeling down after game this made me laugh and feel better.

 

[Peggy]

He won't, nor should he.

yes he should. that's what a good gm does. Maurice ain't taking this team to the scf. he's had 20 years of hockey to prove it.

what's his excuse for losing this one? how many excuses you gonna make for this coach

 

[Peggy]

A match he should've won? Which one was that?

the one where the 2nd seed lost to the 5th seed

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

I would agree with you on how Chevy trys to operate from a contract point of view. I do however think that Trouba is far too low as there really isn't a case to be made for Trouba being that low based on the market. Even if he where to do the team a favor your likely only getting him around 6.25 million not 5.75. Given his agent the best we can hope for is the lower end of market and not well below market value as you have him at. Helle I am not sure on as goalie contracts seem to be all over the map, I decided to be conservative and go higher. Lowry is the union rep on the team, if he gives a discount it wont be anything substantial like a 750 K a year thing.

Did not know this. I hadn't thought of union reps since Hainsey move on.

 

[Adam da bomb]

yes he should. that's what a good gm does. Maurice ain't taking this team to the scf. he's had 20 years of hockey to prove it.

what's his excuse for losing this one? how many excuses you gonna make for this coach

Your arguments baffle me.

 

[Guffman]

Some good posts here and then because an 11-year vet has a down year (Little), people want to trade away an important centre piece.

The knee-jerk analysis is absurd.

Jets establish several milestones this year (highest regular season point total, 2nd overall in the league, never advanced this far before - heck, never won a second round playoff game before), and they want Maurice fired?

Good lord.

 

[Whileee]

Jets were the 3rd/4th best team in the NHL this season based on performance. They have a young roster with some core vets. I don't see a need to make substantial changes. That said, I think that the Jets will need to do two things.

1. Re-organize the salary cap structure - With the need to re-sign some of their core players in the next 1-2 seasons, the Jets will need to move out a few vets and replace them with cheaper players, mostly young players on ELCs. The players that I think are most likely to be moved out in the next year or two are Enstrom (expiring contract), Mason (expiring contract), Chiarot (expiring), Matthias (expiring), Myers (trade), Perreault (trade), Dano (trade), . Kulikov is a question mark. The replacements are mostly going to come from within the system, and I think they would include: Vesalainen, Niku, Petan, Appleton, Lemieux. I also think we might well see Morrow re-sign a value contract to play LD instead of Chiarot / Enstrom.

2. Acquire short-term veteran talent on LD and C - I think this is more likely to come via a trade (Myers, Perreault, Petan, etc.) than UFA, or maybe even another TDL deal (though I highly doubt that Chevy will want to give up another 1st rounder in 2019). What I could see is the Jets dealing for a C with an expiring contract after the upcoming season. Brassard might be a target, if the Pens decide they can't afford him, or maybe want more on D with a player like Myers for next season. Another target might be Duchene, but more likely as a pricey TDL acquisition. I really don't see Stastny as a fit, mostly because the Jets won't have cap space beyond this season, and he'll need a longer term deal.

If they can't sign Trouba, then all bets are off. I think they might still hang onto him for another season during this window, but they might also shake things up with a big trade.

Finally, I think we should anticipate some further development of young players like Hellebuyck, Morrissey, Laine, Ehlers, Connor, Roslovic. The Jets should be in good shape next season, and still firmly in their competitive window.

 

[HannuJ]

Petan was a point a game player in the A this year. 52 points in 52 games. If he played all year in the AHL at that pace he may have lead the whole league in points. Certainly in the top 5 or 10. So I wouldn't rule him out of the picture just yet. Roslovic was just over a point a game (35 in 32).

Roslovic will almost likely not be an NHL centre.

 

[HannuJ]

Some good posts here and then because an 11-year vet has a down year (Little), people want to trade away an important centre piece.

The knee-jerk analysis is absurd. .

it's him having a down year, getting older and being a significant cap hit compared to his point production. that's the concern

 

[Teemus Salami]

I really don't get why people want to move guys like Myers, little and pereault so badly. We have a chance to ice the exact team as this season (minus stastny) that was on pace for second place anyways before the deadline. That's a hell of an opportunity to keep a winning club together; that rarely happens to teams.

If need be make a move at the deadline similar to this season, but no need to start a big shakeup. I'd be more than happy if nothing but the expected re-signings happen this summer

 

[10Ducky10]

I think Little out performed most vets besides Wheeler and Buff.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I really don't get why people want to move guys like Myers, little and pereault so badly. We have a chance to ice the exact team as this season (minus stastny) that was on pace for second place anyways before the deadline. That's a hell of an opportunity to keep a winning club together; that rarely happens to teams.

If need be make a move at the deadline similar to this season, but no need to start a big shakeup. I'd be more than happy if nothing but the expected re-signings happen this summer

Its because some of those players you just mentioned people wanting to move accomplished very little in the post-season and for what we are paying them I expected them to pick up the slack from the young guys.

 

[Ducky10]

yes he should. that's what a good gm does. Maurice ain't taking this team to the scf. he's had 20 years of hockey to prove it.

what's his excuse for losing this one? how many excuses you gonna make for this coach

He doesn't need any excuses and neither do I. I guess it was Maurice's fault his Vezina finalist goalie performed well below league average in the series? Or his two 30 goal and 44 goal scorer potted 3 between all of them? How about Little, Perreault, Stastny? Mo's fault right?

Despite your obvious leanings, putting this on the coach shows baffling ignorance really. He kept Hendricks on the bench, he shuffled some guys in and out, his team got beat by a hot goalie, some ridiculous luck and because they were running a little low on fuel.

If you actually bothered to look for other reasons, you'd find them pretty easily, but you're a one trick coach sux pony. It's like you don't even try.