Sportsnet: Who stays and who goes on Senators’ list of pending free agents?

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Man, am I all alone in liking Zaitsev's game? He's not flashy but there's lots of little aspects to his game that I appreciate.

He's exactly as advertised. Makes his partners worse and his ability to escape the defensive zone is Ceci-esque. Often overlaps with his partner's gaps.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Man, am I all alone in liking Zaitsev's game? He's not flashy but there's lots of little aspects to his game that I appreciate.

I don't get it either but his underlying numbers are not good. A puzzling player for sure, reverse Weircioch (looked awful but good underlying numbers).

 

[TheDebater]

Man, am I all alone in liking Zaitsev's game? He's not flashy but there's lots of little aspects to his game that I appreciate.

Your not alone. I like his game so much. One of my favorite to watch.

I Would rather keep him for another year or 2, then getting a 3rd/4th, till a younger player is ready to take his spot.

I actually really like him also.

I don't get it either but his underlying numbers are not good. A puzzling player for sure, reverse Weircioch (looked awful but good underlying numbers).

Just to be clear, saying that we prefer DeMelo over Zaitsev does not mean we think that Zaitsev is a bad player, well, I speak for myself at least since I made that comment earlier and just wanted to clarify. I think Zaitsev is a decent player, but he basically is what he is and is not very special in any specific way. He does not stand out offensively and his defensive play is pretty average, I cannot think of one facet of the game he excels at, can you?

 

[RAFI BOMB]

I want more 2020 picks so I am to trading all UFA's and maybe some RFA's as well.
Ottawa Senators - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps
Capfriendly lists the following as free agents this offseason:
UFA
Boedker, Pageau, Ennis, Hainsey, Borowiecki, Demelo, Anderson, Namestnikov, Goloubef, Sabourin, Szwarz

RFA
Tierney, C. Brown, Duclair, Beaudin, Paul, Chlapik, Veronneau, Sturtz, Balcers, Klimchuk, Jaros, Englund, Daccord

From the UFA's I am pretty much open to trading all of them. There are a number of players I like in the later rounds in this draft so I would still be happy getting some late picks. I like the way that some of the UFA's play and would be open to bringing some of them back but I do think the best step for this organization is to get some assets for them at the deadline and then consider bringing them back in the offseason.

With the RFA's I really hope we trade Tierney. I don't see him as a long term piece and would like to see us get some assets for him. C.Brown, Duclair and Paul have all played well so far so as long as their play continues I would like to see them get contract extensions. Chlapik, Balcers, Jaros and Daccord seem like good pieces so I wouldn't be in any rush to trade them. Sturtz, Klimchuk and Englund likely don't have much of a future in Ottawa so I don't think it matters if we keep them or not. Beaudin and Veronneau are a bit trickier as they have shown some good signs but they may get pushed out of the lineup for more core prospects.

I think the best strategy is to stick to the rebuild. Free up roster spots for young players and try to get some more picks. This is a very strong draft and eventhough we have 11 picks, if we could get more that would be great.

 

[SensontheRush]

One thing that really stands out about Zaitsev imo is how players bounce off of him when he takes the hit. It's his Russian blood or something; he's solid like a tree.

 

[SensontheRush]

I also don't think the Sens need to horde any more draft picks. They should just be looking for quality. We already have a logjam of depth players/prospects that can fill out our bottom 9, and are ready now/soon. Also, at some point having too many prospects can actually be cumbersome for management. It could force Dorion into potentially making rash decisions when determining who to hold onto.

 

[JD1]

Just to be clear, saying that we prefer DeMelo over Zaitsev does not mean we think that Zaitsev is a bad player, well, I speak for myself at least since I made that comment earlier and just wanted to clarify. I think Zaitsev is a decent player, but he basically is what he is and is not very special in any specific way. He does not stand out offensively and his defensive play is pretty average, I cannot think of one facet of the game he excels at, can you?

So last year we let in over 300 goals. This year, our goals against average is <3 thru 25 games in a year where scoring is up

5 on 5 we are 11th in the league GA/60
All situations we are 14th in GA/60. Last year we were dead last.

There are obviously a lot of things contributing to this improvement but with Zaitsev 2nd on the team in ice time at 23 minutes, he clearly is making a contribution to the team's biggest area of improvement

 

[Micklebot]

So last year we let in over 300 goals. This year, our goals against average is <3 thru 25 games in a year where scoring is up

5 on 5 we are 11th in the league GA/60
All situations we are 14th in GA/60. Last year we were dead last.

There are obviously a lot of things contributing to this improvement but with Zaitsev 2nd on the team in ice time at 23 minutes, he clearly is making a contribution to the team's biggest area of improvement

I think particularly in a year where we have had a coaching change, and changed goalies that's quite the leap to make.

Anderson had a .903 sv% last year and has .904sv% this year. He started 60% of our games. This year he's splitting a little under 50/50 with Nilson who has a .927 sv%.

The system is completely changed, and players had quite on their coach last year.

Heck, look at the guy we flipped out for Zaitsev, Ceci's got a lower GA/60 this year at 5v5 than Zaitsev did in Toronto and significantly lower than he did in Ottawa.

I'm not saying Zaitsev isn't part of the solution, just that with so many variable, it's far from clear what specific impact he's having.

 

[bert]

I want more 2020 picks so I am to trading all UFA's and maybe some RFA's as well.
Ottawa Senators - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps
Capfriendly lists the following as free agents this offseason:
UFA
Boedker, Pageau, Ennis, Hainsey, Borowiecki, Demelo, Anderson, Namestnikov, Goloubef, Sabourin, Szwarz

RFA
Tierney, C. Brown, Duclair, Beaudin, Paul, Chlapik, Veronneau, Sturtz, Balcers, Klimchuk, Jaros, Englund, Daccord

From the UFA's I am pretty much open to trading all of them. There are a number of players I like in the later rounds in this draft so I would still be happy getting some late picks. I like the way that some of the UFA's play and would be open to bringing some of them back but I do think the best step for this organization is to get some assets for them at the deadline and then consider bringing them back in the offseason.

With the RFA's I really hope we trade Tierney. I don't see him as a long term piece and would like to see us get some assets for him. C.Brown, Duclair and Paul have all played well so far so as long as their play continues I would like to see them get contract extensions. Chlapik, Balcers, Jaros and Daccord seem like good pieces so I wouldn't be in any rush to trade them. Sturtz, Klimchuk and Englund likely don't have much of a future in Ottawa so I don't think it matters if we keep them or not. Beaudin and Veronneau are a bit trickier as they have shown some good signs but they may get pushed out of the lineup for more core prospects.

I think the best strategy is to stick to the rebuild. Free up roster spots for young players and try to get some more picks. This is a very strong draft and eventhough we have 11 picks, if we could get more that would be great.

Your plan is logical and I agree with absolutely all of it. Well thought out and i think you are targeting the right players to move and keep.

 

[bert]

Tierney might get a 2nd. He won't get a 1st.

I'd keep DeMelo. I don't see him getting more than a 3rd and he's worth more than that to us.



At least 3 years out before contributing at a high level?

At 900k they are getting way more than a 3rd for Demelo. He is a good # 5 that can play in a top 4 has great underlying numbers.

2nd plus a prospect at the deadline.

 

[bert]

I also don't think the Sens need to horde any more draft picks. They should just be looking for quality. We already have a logjam of depth players/prospects that can fill out our bottom 9, and are ready now/soon. Also, at some point having too many prospects can actually be cumbersome for management. It could force Dorion into potentially making rash decisions when determining who to hold onto.

You know teams parlay assets in to higher quality picks or prospects. Also having more assets is only cumbersome to inept management. More assets means they can take more shots on riskier picks.

Basically what you are saying is youd rather just have nothing over extra picks. Which makes no logical sense. The reason the sens are in this position is horrid asset management. Thats the number 1 thing this organization needs a fundamental change in.

 

[JD1]

I think particularly in a year where we have had a coaching change, and changed goalies that's quite the leap to make.

Anderson had a .903 sv% last year and has .904sv% this year. He started 60% of our games. This year he's splitting a little under 50/50 with Nilson who has a .927 sv%.

The system is completely changed, and players had quite on their coach last year.

Heck, look at the guy we flipped out for Zaitsev, Ceci's got a lower GA/60 this year at 5v5 than Zaitsev did in Toronto and significantly lower than he did in Ottawa.

I'm not saying Zaitsev isn't part of the solution, just that with so many variable, it's far from clear what specific impact he's having.

I'm not going to disagree with you but you are in effect highlighting some of the challenges with so called advanced stats.

Goal scoring is up. That makes it more challenging to compare one year to the next. It's easier to look at relative numbers.

Our 5 on 5 ga/60 is 2.32 for 11th in the league. Last place in the league is currently at 3.54. We were last place last year by a lot. More than 10% worse than 30th overall. If we were currently sitting in last place, 10% worse than the team in front of us, we'd be around 3.9.

Sure there are many things we can point to including system changes but it'd be somewhat hard to ignore that this is in part due to personnel and with Zaitsev at 23 minutes a night he is contributing to that.

Can you isolate what he is contributing to that result using advanced stats? No, you can't. But thru 25 games the improvement is shocking.

 

[Micklebot]

I'm not going to disagree with you but you are in effect highlighting some of the challenges with so called advanced stats.

Goal scoring is up. That makes it more challenging to compare one year to the next. It's easier to look at relative numbers.

Our 5 on 5 ga/60 is 2.32 for 11th in the league. Last place in the league is currently at 3.54. We were last place last year by a lot. More than 10% worse than 30th overall. If we were currently sitting in last place, 10% worse than the team in front of us, we'd be around 3.9.

Sure there are many things we can point to including system changes but it'd be somewhat hard to ignore that this is in part due to personnel and with Zaitsev at 23 minutes a night he is contributing to that.

Can you isolate what he is contributing to that result using advanced stats? No, you can't. But thru 25 games the improvement is shocking.

So, it's funny, al the points your making are basically adding to what I'm saying. Yes, advanced stats have their flaws, and drawing conclusions from them can be tricky. Isolating his contribution is going to be very difficult, I 100% agree, in fact, my point is that to suggest that he is clearly a contributor to our improvement based on a simple observation of us improving and him playing lots of mins is remarkably underwhelming evidence.

Just as an example, the Islanders went from worst GA in 2017-18 with 293 against to best goals against in the league in 2018-19 with 191 against. Same group of Dmen, but Trotz came in completely changing the system and the goaltending was significantly better. That's a far more significant improvement in GA, and it's hard to argue it's because of personnel changes.

Now coming back to the sens, we've just dumped more variables into the mix making isolating the contributions to the improvement exponentially more difficult. I'm not saying Zaitsev can't have been a part of the improvement, I'm saying acting as though it's a given because there was significant improvement for the team and he played a lot of mins is a pretty flawed argument imo.

All that to say, I do think Zaitsev has played ok. I'm not of the opinion that's he's been bad by any means. I'm just reluctant to say attribute the teams improvement to him when you see similar improvement across the board; DeMelo has seen his GA/60 drop almost a full goal. Boro's by a goal and a half. Neither player typically plays with Zaitsev. Their deployment changed though, so it's hard to discern what caused the change.

 

[philb613]

Zaitsev, DeMelo & Boro all on the right side seems weak. That's 3 guys suited for the bottom pair on a good team.

Boro is a LD, has very rarely played the right side in his career. More reason why the Sens are likely to move him out, as they have Lajoie who should be a lock to make the team next year. That would be a Chabot, Brannstrom, Lajoie left side moving forward.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Ths

At 900k they are getting way more than a 3rd for Demelo. He is a good # 5 that can play in a top 4 has great underlying numbers.

2nd plus a prospect at the deadline.

This thread title and the thought of Demelo trade reminds me of the Clash song "If I stay it will be trouble... if I go it will be double"



#keepthestache

 

[Wondercarrot]

Man, am I all alone in liking Zaitsev's game? He's not flashy but there's lots of little aspects to his game that I appreciate.

Yeah I don’t get it either, I’ve been impressed with Zaitsev. Good puck mover, smart, skates well.
Seems like a very reliable 2nd pairing guy who can play good minutes.

 

[philb613]

Boro is a LD, has very rarely played the right side in his career. More reason why the Sens are likely to move him out, as they have Lajoie who should be a lock to make the team next year. That would be a Chabot, Brannstrom, Lajoie left side moving forward.

Sorry forgot to mention Wolanin also on the LD side so yeah, unless Boro wants to be a 7th D next year or the coach wants him over Lajoie/ Wolanin I think they move him out.

 

[JD1]

So, it's funny, al the points your making are basically adding to what I'm saying. Yes, advanced stats have their flaws, and drawing conclusions from them can be tricky. Isolating his contribution is going to be very difficult, I 100% agree, in fact, my point is that to suggest that he is clearly a contributor to our improvement based on a simple observation of us improving and him playing lots of mins is remarkably underwhelming evidence.

Just as an example, the Islanders went from worst GA in 2017-18 with 293 against to best goals against in the league in 2018-19 with 191 against. Same group of Dmen, but Trotz came in completely changing the system and the goaltending was significantly better. That's a far more significant improvement in GA, and it's hard to argue it's because of personnel changes.

Now coming back to the sens, we've just dumped more variables into the mix making isolating the contributions to the improvement exponentially more difficult. I'm not saying Zaitsev can't have been a part of the improvement, I'm saying acting as though it's a given because there was significant improvement for the team and he played a lot of mins is a pretty flawed argument imo.

So what argument would you make that is not flawed?

We've gone from 31st to 14th. What argument would you like to make that explains that result that doesn't touch on personnel knowing that we can't isolate on an individual

Careful now what argument you do make.

If you go down the path of systems I'm going to ask you for data that establishes this system is better than the last.

If you go down the path of player buy in, I'm going to ask you for data that measures buy in.

Do we have buy in/60 data?

Oh and FYI....the D core in NYI was quite different year over year, as was having a vezina nominated goalie

 

[Micklebot]

So what argument would you make that is not flawed?

We've gone from 31st to 14th. What argument would you like to make that explains that result that doesn't touch on personnel knowing that we can't isolate on an individual

Careful now what argument you do make.

If you go down the path of systems I'm going to ask you for data that establishes this system is better than the last.

If you go down the path of player buy in, I'm going to ask you for data that measures buy in.

Do we have buy in/60 data?

Oh and FYI....the D core in NYI was quite different year over year, as was having a vezina nominated goalie

Again, my point is the data is inconclusive. You are making a claim without data that can support it. I'm not willing to try a rebut your position using the same incomplete or insufficient data because then I'd be guilty of doing what I've just pointed out you were doing.

Oh and wrt the Isl D, their top 6 D in terms of total icetime both years included Leddy, Pulock, Mayfield, Boychuk, and Pulock. Toews came in for Hickey in 2019 and the other guys had increased roles, but for the most part, the personnel was the same though the icetime distribution changed in part due to injuries. The biggest difference is Pulock moving from ~18:30 a night to 22 mins a night because he picked up PP duties and played a bit more at ES.

 

[JD1]

Again, my point is the data is inconclusive. You are making a claim without data that can support it. I'm not willing to try a rebut your position using the same incomplete or insufficient data because then I'd be guilty of doing what I've just pointed out you were doing.

Oh and wrt the Isl D, their top 6 D in terms of total icetime both years included Leddy, Pulock, Mayfield, Boychuk, and Pulock. Toews came in for Hickey in 2019 and the other guys had increased roles, but for the most part, the personnel was the same though the icetime distribution changed in part due to injuries. The biggest difference is Pulock moving from ~18:30 a night to 22 mins a night because he picked up PP duties and played a bit more at ES.

You might consider looking at the games played in 17/18 versus 18/19. 17/18 was an injury riddled year on the island and that is born out by games / minutes played by their top D and 18/19 was remarkably injury free. They got 12% more ice time at 5 on 5 out of their top 6 in 18/19 as opposed to 17/18. It isnt that it was a personnel switch, they just got a lot more ice from the same guys in 18/19. And all things considered, although i can't back it up with data, getting considerably more ice time out of your top players generally leads to stronger results.

I had at this point a big reply typed up on our Zaitsev but in re-reading it i realized this discussion just isn't worth it to me.

 

[Micklebot]

You might consider looking at the games played in 17/18 versus 18/19. 17/18 was an injury riddled year on the island and that is born out by games / minutes played by their top D and 18/19 was remarkably injury free. They got 12% more ice time at 5 on 5 out of their top 6 in 18/19 as opposed to 17/18. It isnt that it was a personnel switch, they just got a lot more ice from the same guys in 18/19. And all things considered, although i can't back it up with data, getting considerably more ice time out of your top players generally leads to stronger results.

I had at this point a big reply typed up on our Zaitsev but in re-reading it i realized this discussion just isn't worth it to me.

Fair point about the injuries on the NYI. More non-regulars were rotating through the lineup that year. I still feel the stylistic difference in their play was the primary contributor to their improved defense based on my viewings and looking at how the pairings that did stick together year over year performed (Leddy and Boychuck being the primary example)

Wrt Zaitsev, the eye test suggests he's playing well enough, and his numbers look good relative to what Ceci did here last year, but then again, Ceci's underlying numbers drastically improved getting out of the nightmare that was our Defensive system from the last two seasons (and were pretty decent in Boucher's first year). Both of them have somewhat different roles now, so it's not exactly apples to apples. I would have liked to see how Ceci did under DJ. Smith in a similar role. Then again, Toronto fans seem just about as happy as Sens fans were with Ceci, underlying numbers improvement or not.

 

[coladin]

My only concern about moving Demelo and Boro for expected players like Lajoie and Wolanin is what happened in 2017-2018. Senators lost Methot and hoped Jaros , Oduya and Wideman were going to make the jump. They didn't and the team sank pretty fast. Demelo can play, and Boro is playing his best hockey right now. Add Chabot, Zaitsev and Brannstrom leaves one spot, which should be Wolanin

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Boro is a LD, has very rarely played the right side in his career. More reason why the Sens are likely to move him out, as they have Lajoie who should be a lock to make the team next year. That would be a Chabot, Brannstrom, Lajoie left side moving forward.

Good point, not sure why I got crossed up with Boro on the right.

in the end it doesn't matter much to me who plays these next two years during the transition/tanking, imo none of Boro, Zaitsev or Demelo are going to be here when it matters either way, which is why I don't want much term thrown at Demelo if it takes it to keep him and especially not Boro. String them along with 1 or 2 year deals at best.

 

[SensontheRush]

You know teams parlay assets in to higher quality picks or prospects. Also having more assets is only cumbersome to inept management. More assets means they can take more shots on riskier picks.

Basically what you are saying is youd rather just have nothing over extra picks. Which makes no logical sense. The reason the sens are in this position is horrid asset management. Thats the number 1 thing this organization needs a fundamental change in.

I'm not interested in the ego games.

My argument is for why we should retain some of our UFA talent, not to just simply let them go. I don't really feel like I have to make this distinction though since its so obvious. More draft picks the better.

One could make the argument that having a more manageable prospect pool allows our development staff to devote more time to each players evaluations and guidance. That concern might even be more prominent for a smaller organization like Ottawa.

My main point was though having many players increases healthy competition for NHL roles, it can also pressure management into making reckless decisions. Since we shouldn't stifle players from breaking out by burying them in the AHL, a GM might not be able to be as patient as they'd like in making roster decisions. This can lead to us letting go of potentially significant players. I raise this concern because the Sens already have a deep prospect pool, yet what we are missing is high-level quality.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

Keep Ennis, DeMelo, C Brown, Duclair

trade Pageau, Hainsey, Namestnikov, Tierney, Anderson, Boro