who do we target in FA ?

[CatsforReinhart]

The "fools and their money" song is being overplayed a bit. By my count, there were only five contracts of five or more years given out to players who moved teams last offseason, and four of those players received five years and were not named John Tavares. Only JVR, James Neal, John Moore (low cap hit, though), Jack Johnson (LOL) are also in that category. There should be a good mid-market in this UFA class, and we should be active in it.



Nelson won't get 6x6. He could've been had for a song last summer. Teams won't pay for one season. I think he'll get four years, maybe a fifth, for around $5m.

Nelson hit 20 four times(19 right now I included) and 19 once. I will take bets he gets 6m

Dude is getting 4.25 and that is without free agency.

He gets 6m if he makes it to free agency. Join 2019 please.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

Look around the NHL and there are loads and loads of regrettable UFA deals out there.

Okposo might be the best big money UFA deal from 7/1/2016. Milan Lucic (7 yrs $6M cap hit) was a big signing from 7/1/2016, for example. Some other amazing deals on that day were Frans Nielsen (6 yrs $5.25M cap hit), Loui Eriksson (6 yrs $6M cap hit), David Backes (5 yrs $6M cap hit), and Andrew Ladd (7 yrs $5.5M cap hit).

Oh so other GMs sign bad contracts and that's on Botts? That's utter nonsense.

Give me a break. If we brought Botts in to win he better sign UFAs. Or you think Botts is trash and not capable of determining who to sign in UFA?

 

[HaNotsri]

Offer sheets (yeah I know, but these could be 2nd round pick tier)
Compher
Johnsson - Would he sign for 4 million? Probably worth more or is he inflated byLeafs centremen?
Colton Sissons

UFA
Myers - if Bogo or Risto leaves
Pirri - has produced well enough
Donskoi - is a good bet based on ESG (Botts seemed stuck on that stat last summer)

 

[kenfury]

In order of most to least important.


Skinner - Works great with Eich

Hayes - I'm worried about him slowing down in a few years but i think he could make solid contributions for 3-4 years. He shelters Mitts now and slides down to a checking role when/if Mitts pushes him out.

It probably would not hurt to upgrade a 2nd line winger. Zuccs/Dzingel/Ferland

Pommers - IF (Big if) he wants to come back for a final 1Yr 2M type deal that's fine.
Also they need some tweeners in the CJ Smith, Hunwick mold.

 

[Zip15]

Nelson hit 20 four times(19 right now I included) and 19 once. I will take bets he gets 6m

Dude is getting 4.25 and that is without free agency.

He gets 6m if he makes it to free agency. Join 2019 please.

If Brock ****ing Nelson gets $6m AAV for six years, I will eat my hat. The guy averaged 40 pts/season over the last three years - he'll probably hit low-50s this year. It only takes one team, but I'll take the bet that he neither gets $6m AAV nor six years.

Josh Bailey signed his contract in February 2018, was coming off a 56-point season in 2016-17 and was in the midst of a 71-point season in 2017-18, and only got $5m AAV...with a less conservative GM than Lou Lams. The only way he gets those figures you mentioned is that NYI has a ton of money to spend and can't afford to lose another center the year after losing JT. And I still don't think he will.

 

[Icicle]

We have our stars already. Eichel, Dahlin, Skinner. 30 million

We have our core. Reinhart, Mittelstadt, Ristolainen, Montour. 25 million on the cheap side

We will end up having lets say 7 million spent on goalies in a couple years to put us at average costs.

That leaves 20 million to sign fourteen players to fill out the roster. Let’s say the draft goes up each year, so 30 million to be generous. If Girgensons and Larsson are still around they’ll average up to 3 each. Means the rest of the guys all need to be 1.5ish or below

We aren’t signing no more star players unless these core pieces go the other way, or their contracts are only 1-2 years up until the rookies want to get paid. Getting Mittelstadt or someone on a bridge will help too, but that’ll hurt us long run like it might with Reinhart already.

Edit: Also don’t forget the Ducks had a hard time signing Montour to his bridge. This likely had a factor into why he was traded, as he probably wants a big raise.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

If Brock ****ing Nelson gets $6m AAV for six years, I will eat my hat. The guy averaged 40 pts/season over the last three years - he'll probably hit low-50s this year. It only takes one team, but I'll take the bet that he neither gets $6m AAV nor six years.

Josh Bailey signed his contract in February 2018, was coming off a 56-point season in 2016-17 and was in the midst of a 71-point season in 2017-18, and only got $5m AAV...with a less conservative GM than Lou Lams. The only way he gets those figures you mentioned is that NYI has a ton of money to spend and can't afford to lose another center the year after losing JT. And I still don't think he will.

I am ok with you eating your hat. We can revisit this in July. I would like to watch.

 

[Buffaloed]

Kalle Kossila - LW we need a Finnpal for Risto (Group 6)
Anaheim Ducks: Top 10 Prospects Entering 2018
He went full Bogosian with the injuries. Big upside

Andrew Potulasrki - C (Group 6) - he's a local kid!
Williamsville's Andrew Poturalski hoping for another NHL chance with Carolina
Canes Sign Andrew Poturalski to One-Year Deal
He's put up good numbers in the AHL.

Michael Haley - Sabres need a guy like him

 

[sabresEH]

I don't see us going after much. We have roughly 25 mill in space + whatever the cap goes up by.
Skinner re-signs for 8-9 mill. Down to 17.
RFA Forwards (Larsson, Girgensons, Rodrigues) I'll give them 6mill as a bunch. Down to 11.
RFA Defence (McCabe) Modest raise to 2.5 . Down to 8.5
RFA Goalie (Ullmark) I like round numbers so I give him 2.25 for 2 years. Spend 5 mill on the goalie tandem for 2 more years.
Down to roughly 6+ w/ 12F/8D/2G signed. So I could see a Hayes, Nelson, Lee signing but I think we'll make a Risto trade at the draft which will give us a better idea of what we have to spend July 1 and who we'll be targeting.

 

[Tatanka]

I don't see us going after much. We have roughly 25 mill in space + whatever the cap goes up by.
Skinner re-signs for 8-9 mill. Down to 17.
RFA Forwards (Larsson, Girgensons, Rodrigues) I'll give them 6mill as a bunch. Down to 11.
RFA Defence (McCabe) Modest raise to 2.5 . Down to 8.5
RFA Goalie (Ullmark) I like round numbers so I give him 2.25 for 2 years. Spend 5 mill on the goalie tandem for 2 more years.
Down to roughly 6+ w/ 12F/8D/2G signed. So I could see a Hayes, Nelson, Lee signing but I think we'll make a Risto trade at the draft which will give us a better idea of what we have to spend July 1 and who we'll be targeting.

Skinner makes 5.75 now. If he gets say 8.75 don't we only lose 3 mil of space? Bettman estimated an 83 million cap for next year. We have close to four today according to capfriendly. We are not in a bind. Erod gets tendered so he is less than a million. Same for Larson, Girgs and McCabe (tendered). I think we have enough room to add without struggling in the future.

 

[sabresEH]

Skinner makes 5.75 now. If he gets say 8.75 don't we only lose 3 mil of space? Bettman estimated an 83 million cap for next year. We have close to four today according to capfriendly. We are not in a bind. Erod gets tendered so he is less than a million. Same for Larson, Girgs and McCabe (tendered). I think we have enough room to add without struggling in the future.

No, I’m not sure how to word it but the cap space of 25mill doesn’t include his 5.75. On July 1, skinner will no longer have a contract. And as long as no one signs extensions before July 1 then we have 25mill in cap space + whatever it increases by.

See the attached picture. I have Skinner 8.75. Rodrigues 1, Larson and girgensons 1.75 and Ullmark 2.25. Set the cap at 83 mill. We had just shy of 11 mill.
So pretty much exactly what I said + what the cap goes up by.

 

[sabremike]

Kalle Kossila - LW we need a Finnpal for Risto (Group 6)
Anaheim Ducks: Top 10 Prospects Entering 2018
He went full Bogosian with the injuries. Big upside

Andrew Potulasrki - C (Group 6) - he's a local kid!
Williamsville's Andrew Poturalski hoping for another NHL chance with Carolina
Canes Sign Andrew Poturalski to One-Year Deal
He's put up good numbers in the AHL.

Michael Haley - Sabres need a guy like him

When the Belmont arena opens I want a statue of Haley and Gillies kicking the crap out of the Penguins and making whiny pissbaby Mario cry.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I’d go all in on Kevin Hayes this off-season. He’d be real good behind Eichel and protecting Mittelstadt. Plus he is a net front type on the PP.

 

[Jim Bob]

Oh so other GMs sign bad contracts and that's on Botts? That's utter nonsense.

Give me a break. If we brought Botts in to win he better sign UFAs. Or you think Botts is trash and not capable of determining who to sign in UFA?

You are completely missing the point.

The prices on UFAs get inflated because so many GMs around the league hand out stupid contracts because they feel they need to add a certain player.

The only way to win at UFA is to not sign a big money guy on 7/1. The only time those types of deals work out is when it is the rare elite player (Tavares, for example) that hits UFA.

I just don't like the odds of the Sabres being able to entice a guy like Erik Karlsson to sign here if he makes it to 7/1.

Stone is off the market. At this point, there are three or four UFAs-to-be that might be worth the contract that they will get if they hit the market. Skinner is one. Panarin, Karlsson, and Duchene are the others.

Guys like Dzingel, Simmonds, Hayes, Lee, and Nelson get overpaid as UFAs on the regular.

If Botterill "wins" at UFA, it won't be by making a splashy signing on 7/1. It will be taking the patient route and seeing if there is a guy that is still on the market on 7/15 or beyond that they can sign to a reasonable contract and help improve the offensive production of the middle six forwards.

 

[Sabreality]

You are completely missing the point.

The prices on UFAs get inflated because so many GMs around the league hand out stupid contracts because they feel they need to add a certain player.

The only way to win at UFA is to not sign a big money guy on 7/1. The only time those types of deals work out is when it is the rare elite player (Tavares, for example) that hits UFA.

I just don't like the odds of the Sabres being able to entice a guy like Erik Karlsson to sign here if he makes it to 7/1.

Stone is off the market. At this point, there are three or four UFAs-to-be that might be worth the contract that they will get if they hit the market. Skinner is one. Panarin, Karlsson, and Duchene are the others.

Guys like Dzingel, Simmonds, Hayes, Lee, and Nelson get overpaid as UFAs on the regular.

If Botterill "wins" at UFA, it won't be by making a splashy signing on 7/1. It will be taking the patient route and seeing if there is a guy that is still on the market on 7/15 or beyond that they can sign to a reasonable contract and help improve the offensive production of the middle six forwards.

yeah I agree with most of this, while subject to change, these are my TWO 'smaller' offseason moves that won't break the bank or handcuff this team too far down the road.

1. Sign Donskoi (RW, 27y) I keep looking to SJ's cap situation and wonder how they're going to be able to fit everybody in with Karlssons mega deal, a large raise to Meier, Labanc getting a decent raise and the likely re-signing of Pavelski. Not even including decisions on Jumbo or Nyqvist. Might be able to offer him a bit more $/term and the opportunity to skate 1RW

Donskoi skates very well and plays a strong two-way game, if Jack-Skins can cart Pommerss tired ass around to 15 goals for stretches, I'd guess Donskoi would look really good in that slot and at least be able to keep up.

2. In lieu of signing a Hayes type to a large UFA deal, I'm looking to Vegas to acquire one of Eakin (28y, $3.85) or Haula (28y, $2.75) both signed for '19-20 at reasonable rates. Karlsson likely re-ups RFA, giving them their top 2 C with Stasny and then either Eakin/Haula at 3C with PEB 4C who they like a lot in that slot. Both strong two-way guys who have shown the ability to play up & down a lineup, still gives Mitts some insulation, and if Mitts DOES take a large leap, they slot into 3C really well for the year and potentially won't "block" Asplund if he proves ready by '20 or are simply re-upped again at a reasonable rate.

Vegas could still use D depth, they don't look to have any graduates coming from lower ranks yet with the Brannstrom trade. Offer Scandella & late pick. If they demanded McCabe instead, I'd still do it. (or Nelly, Hunwick or Sheary etcetc obviously)

Nothing outrageous, but a simple plan for now. A Ristolainen monster deal could change everything, but who knows where that's heading. Then fill in with those 'cheaper' post 7/1 moves and at least graduate Olofsson.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

I’d go all in on Kevin Hayes this off-season. He’d be real good behind Eichel and protecting Mittelstadt. Plus he is a net front type on the PP.

With the Montour trade, a C is the top priority and fortunately has many more UFA options this summer. I agree about Hayes, but he's likely to get higher cap/longer term than what Buffalo should be looking for. I wouldn't be too upset about a 6-7 yr deal, but I would hope for 5 yrs at 6.5-7 mil per. Somebody will offer more though. Should Buffalo match a 7 yr/50+ mil deal?

 

[Doohickie]

Also they need some tweeners in the CJ Smith, Hunwick mold.

How are CJ Smith and Matt Hunwick comparable to each other? One is a mature prospect on the AHL/NHL bubble; the other is an ageing veteran. They're hardly in the same mold.

 

[Der Jaeger]

With the Montour trade, a C is the top priority and fortunately has many more UFA options this summer. I agree about Hayes, but he's likely to get higher cap/longer term than what Buffalo should be looking for. I wouldn't be too upset about a 6-7 yr deal, but I would hope for 5 yrs at 6.5-7 mil per. Somebody will offer more though. Should Buffalo match a 7 yr/50+ mil deal?

I also hope Eichel does the bro thing with Hayes.

Would also help if Q was the coach.

 

[Duddy]

I also hope Eichel does the bro thing with Hayes.

Would also help if Q was the coach.

I hope Jack stays away, because his last few recruiting attempts have totally not worked.

Or maybe anytime Jack tries to do some recruiting, Sam is hiding somewhere and yelling some horrible things about Buffalo at them. Just so that they can't get in between Jacks and his bromance.

 

[brian_griffin]

Maybe the wrong place to post this (College thread???), but, now that it is March and I start mildly looking at College standings, seedings, etc:
1. What undrafted / UDFA Collegians are possibly - or should be - on the Sabres roster?
2. Given the post-TDL lack of a 23-man NHL roster limit, whose season will end early, possibly giving a signed player a longer look than a token game or two?

 

[Chainshot]

yeah I agree with most of this, while subject to change, these are my TWO 'smaller' offseason moves that won't break the bank or handcuff this team too far down the road.

1. Sign Donskoi (RW, 27y) I keep looking to SJ's cap situation and wonder how they're going to be able to fit everybody in with Karlssons mega deal, a large raise to Meier, Labanc getting a decent raise and the likely re-signing of Pavelski. Not even including decisions on Jumbo or Nyqvist. Might be able to offer him a bit more $/term and the opportunity to skate 1RW

Donskoi skates very well and plays a strong two-way game, if Jack-Skins can cart Pommerss tired ass around to 15 goals for stretches, I'd guess Donskoi would look really good in that slot and at least be able to keep up.

2. In lieu of signing a Hayes type to a large UFA deal, I'm looking to Vegas to acquire one of Eakin (28y, $3.85) or Haula (28y, $2.75) both signed for '19-20 at reasonable rates. Karlsson likely re-ups RFA, giving them their top 2 C with Stasny and then either Eakin/Haula at 3C with PEB 4C who they like a lot in that slot. Both strong two-way guys who have shown the ability to play up & down a lineup, still gives Mitts some insulation, and if Mitts DOES take a large leap, they slot into 3C really well for the year and potentially won't "block" Asplund if he proves ready by '20 or are simply re-upped again at a reasonable rate.

Vegas could still use D depth, they don't look to have any graduates coming from lower ranks yet with the Brannstrom trade. Offer Scandella & late pick. If they demanded McCabe instead, I'd still do it. (or Nelly, Hunwick or Sheary etcetc obviously)

Nothing outrageous, but a simple plan for now. A Ristolainen monster deal could change everything, but who knows where that's heading. Then fill in with those 'cheaper' post 7/1 moves and at least graduate Olofsson.

Donskoi is the sort of puck-retrieval/dirty work player that would be an excellent add for the Eichel line.

Haula plays with tempo and was an interesting player in Minny even before getting the expanded role in Vegas. I'm curious how his usage and quality and shot metrics compare from one to the other.

 

[kenfury]

How are CJ Smith and Matt Hunwick comparable to each other? One is a mature prospect on the AHL/NHL bubble; the other is an ageing veteran. They're hardly in the same mold.

Both are bubble players who would probably be AHL players on a competitive team but can be called up if needed. The 13-15F, 7-9D role.

 

[Chainshot]

Sturm, Kuffner / Veronneau (they are bookends, I wouldn’t be surprised if they go to the same team)

 

[allsilverdreams]

Why can't we buy out Okoposo's contact

 

[HaNotsri]

Why can't we buy out Okoposo's contact

Because we will hardly save anything due to its structure. Better to put him in the AHL.