Who do the Detroit Red Wings draft in the first round in 2020

[ArmChairGM89]

I won’t pretend to have great knowledge or viewing hours of these prospects, but Raymond scares me. I don’t see the big deal really, especially not for a smaller guy. Would be happier with Holtz tbh.

he seems to have a lot of skill, but I must admit, even in the SHL 5 points on the season does make me hesitate.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

Byfield is 10 mos younger than Lafreniere. The development curve is so steep at this age - basically Byfield in a years time is a more fair comparison to Lafreniere now.

I think the difference in ten months isn’t something to ignore. But in this case I don’t think it’s THAT substantial.

lafreniere has an extra year of experience in the chl but Byfield is not a rookie. He’s comfortable in the league being in his second year. Sure it is 10 months more development time but a huge reason that usually matters is physical growth. You have 16 year olds playing against 20 year olds. That is a huge size difference in a lot of cases. Byfield is a very large kid. So I think the biggest disadvantage in a 10 month period at 17-18 is physical growth. Which doesn’t apply to byfield as he’s quite a bit bigger than almost everyone he plays against.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

I really really really want Lafreniere in Detroit. He’s of my favorite draft prospects in a long time.

His game is so polished and he’s going to be one of those players that’s impactful from Day 1 in the NHL. Very mature player for his age.

I’m also a big fan of Byfield too though. We need another top center and he could honestly be just as good offensively or better. I just prefer the all-around game of Lafreniere

I love how physical he is too. I don’t think lafreniere gets enough credit for the huge checks he throws seemingly every game. He reminds me a lot of ovechkin in that he will be a top point producer while playing with a nastiness. I LOVE that.

 

[Frk It]

I won’t pretend to have great knowledge or viewing hours of these prospects, but Raymond scares me. I don’t see the big deal really, especially not for a smaller guy. Would be happier with Holtz tbh.

Believe you were a fan of Petterson, I think they have some similar strengths. Great puck skills and puck possession players.

 

[lilidk]

Same but I’d flip Stutzle and byfield, just personal preference

Don't forget that Stutzle was playing in the team with like 5 good players on the first line and Byfield was on 4th line of great team. Remember Zadina vs Svechnikov on u20

 

[Hen Kolland]

Don't forget that Stutzle was playing in the team with like 5 good players on the first line and Byfield was on 4th line of great team. Remember Zadina vs Svechnikov on u20

Remember that Byfield started the tournament playing on the second line and second powerplay unit before being so ineffective that he was demoted to essentially being an extra body. Stutzle was undoubtedly the best forward, and potentially best player, on the ice for Germany in that tournament. Stutzle had one of the better tournaments among all players, and Byfield basically didn't participate.

I think the hype machine ran wild on Byfield with the first overall debate, and slowly we are seeing some regression to the norm, and the reality is Byfield has more competition for #2 overall than he presents to Lafreniere at #1.

 

[MBauer]

Remember that Byfield started the tournament playing on the second line and second powerplay unit before being so ineffective that he was demoted to essentially being an extra body. Stutzle was undoubtedly the best forward, and potentially best player, on the ice for Germany in that tournament. Stutzle had one of the better tournaments among all players, and Byfield basically didn't participate.

I think the hype machine ran wild on Byfield with the first overall debate, and slowly we are seeing some regression to the norm, and the reality is Byfield has more competition for #2 overall than he presents to Lafreniere at #1.

Only if your using the WJC as a measuring tool, which is not a good idea in my opinion. He continues to tear up the OHL, and the updated rankings have him as a consensus number 2. Laf is obviously more proven and consensus number 1 at this point, but Byfield is have a better 17 yr old season than Laf did.

Raymond seems to be the one falling a bit, only ranking that has him top 3 is from November.

 

[Henkka]

Only if your using the WJC as a measuring tool, which is not a good idea in my opinion. He continues to tear up the OHL, and the updated rankings have him as a consensus number 2. Laf is obviously more proven and consensus number 1 at this point, but Byfield is have a better 17 yr old season than Laf did.

Raymond seems to be the one falling a bit, only ranking that has him top 3 is from November.

Agree with that too. Byfield still is a pretty big thing with his center positions. These other wingers not named Lafreniere will drop on the draft day. I could see Stutzle going at 3rd (thanks to that center potential) and maybe even Lundell will rise to 4th-5th. It's ridiculous to drop him on the rankings, when just not joining WJC.

The proabilities are just pointing Tim Stutzle for us.

- 35% combined probablility for Top2 pick. Some others will win these.
- 65% probablility for 3-4 picks.
- Stutzle will go at 3-4 range almost for certain.

= very probable Red Wings pick.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Only if your using the WJC as a measuring tool, which is not a good idea in my opinion. He continues to tear up the OHL, and the updated rankings have him as a consensus number 2.

Raymond seems to be the one falling a bit, only ranking that has him top 3 is from November.

No, it's not a good idea by any means. I've made my feelings known in the past; this team desperately needs to get smarter and more cerebral. IQ is the absolute most important thing that this team needs to find. My opinion has little to do with statistical production, but more so what the players bring to the table. Byfield is firmly in a tier with Raymond and Stutzle. I will need to be absolutely blown away to even consider him as a runaway number 2 candidate.

 

[MBH]

Byfield is 4-6-10 in 5 games since returning from the WJC.

Looking at stats, looking at age, looking at position and looking at need, you could justify taking Byfield first overall.

But what the WJC 20 DIDN'T do for Byfield was show us something - anything. You expect to see those flashes of talent and skill that say "OK, the kid might not be having a great tournament, but, yeah, he's got it."

Then again, a couple years ago, Zadina looked superior to Svechnikov by a country mile. Like Byfield, Svech had a small role.

I think it would pretty hard for Stevie to skip past Byfield at #2.

 

[Frk It]

Agree with that too. Byfield still is a pretty big thing with his center positions. These other wingers not named Lafreniere will drop on the draft day. I could see Stutzle going at 3rd (thanks to that center potential) and maybe even Lundell will rise to 4th-5th. It's ridiculous to drop him on the rankings, when just not joining WJC.

The proabilities are just pointing Tim Stutzle for us.

- 35% combined probablility for Top2 pick. Some others will win these.
- 65% probablility for 3-4 picks.
- Stutzle will go at 3-4 range almost for certain.

= very probable Red Wings pick.

Drafting Seider at #6 last year when no one projected him going there should probably be a reminder to us all that the "consensus" is not really a consensus.

I could see Raymond, Holtz, Perfetti, Rossi, Drysdale, Stutzle all being in play for teams at picks 3-4.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

The wjc didn’t change my opinion on any prospect. Except Foudy, I’m pretty high on him.

I think lafreniere is way above byfield and at two I strongly consider stutzle over byfield. Before during and after wjc.

 

[Frk It]

No, it's not a good idea by any means. I've made my feelings known in the past; this team desperately needs to get smarter and more cerebral. IQ is the absolute most important thing that this team needs to find. My opinion has little to do with statistical production, but more so what the players bring to the table. Byfield is firmly in a tier with Raymond and Stutzle. I will need to be absolutely blown away to even consider him as a runaway number 2 candidate.

I want a guy who drives possession and makes the players he plays with better.

And honestly... if IQ matters most... we are all kind of collectively sleeping on Cole Perfetti on this board.

 

[mindfly]

I don’t know how to vote in this thread. The new lottery sucks major ****, and my feeling is we’re going to draft fourth overall.

My impulse is to say we some how wind up with Stutzle.

Doesn't the last placed team have most balls in the lottery? so in theory would have best chance of being drawn?

 

[Hen Kolland]

I want a guy who drives possession and makes the players he plays with better.

And honestly... if IQ matters most... we are all kind of collectively sleeping on Cole Perfetti on this board.

Oh we aren't sleeping on Perfetti, or at least I am not. He's a player that I have actually watched multiple times in person with a few friends who are in the Saginaw area. He's on my radar, but I do notice the lack of explosiveness he has as an athlete compared to the other top forwards in the draft. It's something that I generally can overlook with players, like in Mastrosimone's case, and have faith that the changes that Yzerman has made to the strength and conditioning team and his skating coach success story in Tampa will yield growth. But it scares me at the top of the draft in a top 5 draft position to pick someone who by all accounts is not a strong skater.

Perfetti may very well be a strong contender for the smartest player in the draft, not all that different to how Zegras was viewed last year.

 

[SuperScript29]

Here's my order:

1- Lafreniere
2- Byfield
3- Stutzle

It would be absurd if we're drafting outside the top-3.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Here's my order:

1- Lafreniere
2- Byfield
3- Stutzle

It would be absurd if we're drafting outside the top-3.

If by “absurd” you mean the most likely outcome, sure

 

[SuperScript29]

If by “absurd” you mean the most likely outcome, sure

Based on these odds: 2020 NHL Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon

I like to think we're drafting in the top-3. There's also another thing to learn from the Seider pick, and that is just because we're drafting in the top-3, it does not mean Yzerman is going to pick the "obvious" choice. Outside of Lafreniere, I can't imagine anyone else is a safe bet.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Based on these odds: 2020 NHL Draft Lottery Odds | Tankathon

I like to think we're drafting in the top-3. There's also another thing to learn from the Seider pick, and that is just because we're drafting in the top-3, it does not mean Yzerman is going to pick the "obvious" choice. Outside of Lafreniere, I can't imagine anyone else is a safe bet.

Based on those odds, it is more likely than not that we are picking outside of the top 3.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Based on those odds, it is more likely than not that we are picking outside of the top 3.

It's so stupid that it's basically a coin flip between picking in the top 3 and having the three teams behind you in the standings jump ahead.

 

[Hen Kolland]

It's so stupid that it's basically a coin flip between picking in the top 3 and having the three teams behind you in the standings jump ahead.

There's a 33% chance that a team outside of the bottom 10 (teams 11-15) picks in the top 3 versus a 49.4% chance that the Wings do. These odds should not be this close.

For reference, in 2019 the bottom 5 were Minnesota (83 points), Chicago (84), Florida (86), Arizona (86), and Montreal (96). The 2nd wild card team in both conferences were Columbus (98) and Colorado (90). The greatest gap was 7 points. Those 5 teams had a 33% chance of being placed in the top 3...and guess what...they did.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

The only way to stop tanking is give equal odds to the worst teams. The NBA does their lottery right. 3 worst teams have 14% chance at #1 and 52% at top 4. Once you’re one of the three worst teams there is very little incentive to do worse.

I would like to see a tiered lottery.

31, 30, 29 - eligible for #1 pick all equal odds

losers of #1 pick go back into pool (we’ll say 30 & 29 lost)

30, 29, 28, - eligible for #2 pick. The two worst teams get 40% odds 28 gets 20%

losers of pick #2 go back into the pool. (We’ll say 29 & 28 lost)

29, 28 - 50/50 odds for pick 3

loser goes back into the pool. (We’ll say 28 lost)

pick 4 is lotteried off to everyone who missed the playoffs. The odds would be tiered in a similar fashion to the current system. But the worst team still in has much higher percentage chance. Like 30%

 

[jkutswings]

Nonsense. There are many ways to deter teams from deliberately icing a subpar product or intentionally losing games, some of which would be more effective than the lottery.

For example, remove the lottery altogether, and pick order is solely based on record. But then the NHL Competition Committee actually does their job, and has one or more analysts scrutinize the bottom 5 teams each year. If they uncover sufficient evidence and observations to determine that any of those teams weren't doing all they reasonably could to win games, they forfeit their first round pick, and the rest of the league moves up a slot. Now teams are very much on notice, everybody plays hard, and the objectively worse your team is, the better their draft stock, with no mystery whatsoever.

Find a way to hit offenders where it hurts, rather than penalize every bad team for the occasional past transgressions of a few franchises.

 

[Frk It]

Who even says you have to deter tanking?

We are a team that tried to do it "the right way" and we are on pace to finish worse than any of these teams who tanked. People don't like the reality (that you need high draft picks) so think they you can tell teams to "just do better" (even though the data suggests it's highly improbable) and they will, so we come up with these elaborate schemes... and for what?

Just let the bad teams get high picks. People think it's easier than it is finish last on purprose. The Bengals didn't finish last because they wanted Joe Burrow. That wasn't their plan, they have no plan. They finished last because they suck. Most of the times that is what will happen. People want to believe there is a generational player every draft. Truth is there is not a player even worth tanking for most years. Hischier wasn't. Hughes probably wasn't. Ekblad wasn't. Yaukpov wasn't. Nugent-Hopkins wasn't. That's half the #1 picks in the last decade.

I'm really not even sold we need a lottery at all. A guy like McDavid is the exception and not the norm.

 

[Henkka]

I want a guy who drives possession and makes the players he plays with better..

You just wrote the scouting report of Tim Stutzle.