Who do the Detroit Red Wings draft in the first round in 2020

[Henkka]

It's so stupid that it's basically a coin flip between picking in the top 3 and having the three teams behind you in the standings jump ahead.

Still have a gut feeling, that Yzerman has a clear Top4 for the draft, and will want to be 100% sure to get that 4th overall at least. And if he wins the lottery, then it's only a bonus.

They want to be the worst team at this season, but direction is up after this.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

Nonsense. There are many ways to deter teams from deliberately icing a subpar product or intentionally losing games, some of which would be more effective than the lottery.

For example, remove the lottery altogether, and pick order is solely based on record. But then the NHL Competition Committee actually does their job, and has one or more analysts scrutinize the bottom 5 teams each year. If they uncover sufficient evidence and observations to determine that any of those teams weren't doing all they reasonably could to win games, they forfeit their first round pick, and the rest of the league moves up a slot. Now teams are very much on notice, everybody plays hard, and the objectively worse your team is, the better their draft stock, with no mystery whatsoever.

Find a way to hit offenders where it hurts, rather than penalize every bad team for the occasional past transgressions of a few franchises.

I meant the only way to deter tanking with a lottery system. I should clarify.

I actually enjoy draft lotteries. I think it adds excitement. I just think the NHL lottery is dumb and doesn’t even serve the purpose it was created for.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

Who even says you have to deter tanking?

We are a team that tried to do it "the right way" and we are on pace to finish worse than any of these teams who tanked. People don't like the reality (that you need high draft picks) so think they you can tell teams to "just do better" (even though the data suggests it's highly improbable) and they will, so we come up with these elaborate schemes... and for what?

Just let the bad teams get high picks. People think it's easier than it is finish last on purprose. The Bengals didn't finish last because they wanted Joe Burrow. That wasn't their plan, they have no plan. They finished last because they suck. Most of the times that is what will happen. People want to believe there is a generational player every draft. Truth is there is not a player even worth tanking for most years. Hischier wasn't. Hughes probably wasn't. Ekblad wasn't. Yaukpov wasn't. Nugent-Hopkins wasn't. That's half the #1 picks in the last decade.

I'm really not even sold we need a lottery at all. A guy like McDavid is the exception and not the norm.

I agree that tanking does not need to be deterred. I like tanking. I think tanking is a strategy just like other aspects of the game. I was only commenting on how the current system is attempting to deter it and does a terrible job at it.

further, I want a lottery system. I find them to add quite a bit of excitement. I think they are fun. I don’t care if teams tank. I was just pointing out how dumb the (smart) people are. Putting in place a system to deter tanking which actually deters nothing. If I want the best pick and will tank for it, I’m still going to tank for the best odds. I don’t understand what they were thinking.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

Doesn't the last placed team have most balls in the lottery? so in theory would have best chance of being drawn?

It’s still only an 18% chance. Winning the first overall pick is a complete wildcard. We will have the best chance to win, buttt.

 

[Frk It]

Byfield is 4-6-10 in 5 games since returning from the WJC.

Looking at stats, looking at age, looking at position and looking at need, you could justify taking Byfield first overall.

But what the WJC 20 DIDN'T do for Byfield was show us something - anything. You expect to see those flashes of talent and skill that say "OK, the kid might not be having a great tournament, but, yeah, he's got it."

Then again, a couple years ago, Zadina looked superior to Svechnikov by a country mile. Like Byfield, Svech had a small role.

I think it would pretty hard for Stevie to skip past Byfield at #2.

Eh, it feels a lot like the Elias Petterson situation.

Those that saw him play in league play were convinced he’d be a star. Those that only saw him play in international tournaments saw him differently.

I appreciate the international tournaments, very convenient to see a lot of talent in 1 place, but it’s still just a small glimpse into these kids.

 

[Frk It]

I love how physical he is too. I don’t think lafreniere gets enough credit for the huge checks he throws seemingly every game. He reminds me a lot of ovechkin in that he will be a top point producer while playing with a nastiness. I LOVE that.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

he’s a monster.

 

[GreatGordie9]

There has been some thought of even drafting the Russian goalie Askarov if he is available at 4.

 

[TheOctopusKid]

Isn't the answer "BPA"?

 

[ArmChairGM89]

Isn't the answer "BPA"?

that can be your answer. But you aren’t going to have much conversation. Lol

 

[Hen Kolland]

Isn't the answer "BPA"?

Sure, and then we will have a thread started called "who does TheOctopusKid think is the BPA?"

So you could speculate a name here, or share your personal rankings at this point. Which prospects catch your eye?

 

[Mlotek]

Who even says you have to deter tanking?

We are a team that tried to do it "the right way" and we are on pace to finish worse than any of these teams who tanked. People don't like the reality (that you need high draft picks) so think they you can tell teams to "just do better" (even though the data suggests it's highly improbable) and they will, so we come up with these elaborate schemes... and for what?

Just let the bad teams get high picks. People think it's easier than it is finish last on purprose. The Bengals didn't finish last because they wanted Joe Burrow. That wasn't their plan, they have no plan. They finished last because they suck. Most of the times that is what will happen. People want to believe there is a generational player every draft. Truth is there is not a player even worth tanking for most years. Hischier wasn't. Hughes probably wasn't. Ekblad wasn't. Yaukpov wasn't. Nugent-Hopkins wasn't. That's half the #1 picks in the last decade.

I'm really not even sold we need a lottery at all. A guy like McDavid is the exception and not the norm.

Generations generally occur every 20-25 years.

Kinda hard to have a 'generational' players every year.

Dunno why media loves that phrase.

Perhaps it sounds good on a report.

 

[Kingpin794]

If we pick:

1st-Lafreniere
2nd-Byfield
3rd-Stutzle
4th-Perfetti

 

[Bench]

There has been some thought of even drafting the Russian goalie Askarov if he is available at 4.

That's mainly just me.

 

[r0bert8841]

I agree that tanking does not need to be deterred. I like tanking. I think tanking is a strategy just like other aspects of the game. I was only commenting on how the current system is attempting to deter it and does a terrible job at it.

further, I want a lottery system. I find them to add quite a bit of excitement. I think they are fun. I don’t care if teams tank. I was just pointing out how dumb the (smart) people are. Putting in place a system to deter tanking which actually deters nothing. If I want the best pick and will tank for it, I’m still going to tank for the best odds. I don’t understand what they were thinking.

Was that the reason for implementing the lottery? Cause like you said, it doesn’t really deter tanking and that was pretty obvious before it was implemented.

I thought the purpose was to prevent a couple terrible GMs/Owners from hoarding all the top talent every year then having terrible developmental programs and essentially wasting promising young careers (Edmonton/Islanders/Jackets of the late 2000s early 2010s). I think it has done an amazing job of achieving this. Teams can’t rely on drafting a Rick Nash or John Tavares any more to save the franchise, they have to actually invest in scouting, development, minor league systems, and coaching because there is no guarantee anymore they will get the next stud.

And as a result I see many organizations having better developmental systems and all the top talent is being more evenly distributed around the league. And as a whole, it makes for a better league and a more exciting game.

 

[MBH]

BPA is so silly.
Let's say you gave prospects a ranking from 1-100...

Lafrenierre 92
Byfield 90
Drysdale 90

If you lack centers and you have wingers and RD, don't you have to take Byfield if they're pretty close?
Now, if you have Lafreniere at 96 and the other guys at 86, that's another story.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

Was that the reason for implementing the lottery? Cause like you said, it doesn’t really deter tanking and that was pretty obvious before it was implemented.

I thought the purpose was to prevent a couple terrible GMs/Owners from hoarding all the top talent every year then having terrible developmental programs and essentially wasting promising young careers (Edmonton/Islanders/Jackets of the late 2000s early 2010s). I think it has done an amazing job of achieving this. Teams can’t rely on drafting a Rick Nash or John Tavares any more to save the franchise, they have to actually invest in scouting, development, minor league systems, and coaching because there is no guarantee anymore they will get the next stud.

And as a result I see many organizations having better developmental systems and all the top talent is being more evenly distributed around the league. And as a whole, it makes for a better league and a more exciting game.

I haven’t seen anything relating to that as a reason. I think better developmental systems are a natural evolution of sport. I can’t speak on more than maybe three teams developmental strategies and if they were poor or good and if they’ve improved drastically because they aren’t getting top prospects anymore. I think that may be a stretch considering the most recent lottery changes were instituted-what-3 years ago? Hard to see any quantifiable improvement in that time frame.

if it’s not the whole reason it was introduced it’s certainly A reason.

Also, as a reason for the lottery, you started out by saying this, “I thought the purpose was to prevent a couple terrible GMs/Owners from hoarding all the top talent every year.” - that’s tanking.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

There has been some thought of even drafting the Russian goalie Askarov if he is available at 4.

By whom? Who is doing this thinking?

 

[ArmChairGM89]

By whom? Who is doing this thinking?

I know a guy!

jk

 

[Hen Kolland]

BPA is so silly.
Let's say you gave prospects a ranking from 1-100...

Lafrenierre 92
Byfield 90
Drysdale 90

If you lack centers and you have wingers and RD, don't you have to take Byfield if they're pretty close?
Now, if you have Lafreniere at 96 and the other guys at 86, that's another story.

I think if you rank on a grading scale such as this, you build your positional value into the grade. Or at least I would. So if I grade out Lafreniere at 92 and Byfield at 90, it just means that I really like Lafreniere, even as a winger, more than Byfield as a center.

There has to be a certainty of reaching their potential as well. Lafreniere at this point feels like much more of a sure thing.

 

[Henkka]

Isn't the answer "BPA"?

BPA for your organization. Then BPA includes a need.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Generations generally occur every 20-25 years.

Kinda hard to have a 'generational' players every year.

Dunno why media loves that phrase.

Perhaps it sounds good on a report.

Between goalies, d-men, wingers and centers you can probably get 'generational players' once every 2 or 3 years.

Lafreniere seems to have potential to be a generational winger, which I'm not sure there's been since Kane (depending on how strict you are with the term of course).

 

[TheRatPoisoner]

Voted Stuzle because fully expecting to pick fourth.

 

[The Zermanator]

The silver lining of needing elite talent at every single position is it allows you to go purely BPA.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

The silver lining of needing elite talent at every single position is it allows you to go purely BPA.

lol I’m never against adding a good player, but I’d be disappointed if the drafted a right wing or right D if I think equal level or close to equal level center, left wing, or left D is available.