Well, it takes 20 games to learn a new system. In our last 10 games we're 5-3-2, which if continued through the rest of the year would be a 90 point season. That's what i was hoping for at the start.
Normally that would be out of the playoffs. (I believe, on average you need 94, but last year it was more since a few teams were really really bad.) I think over the next few years, 90-92 might be enough as the bottom teams are getting better and the best teams are getting worse.
Over the past 20 games the oilers are 8-10-2. 8 of the 12 losses (incl OTL) were by 1 goal, and 3 of those games i think the oilers should've won or at least gotten a point. (The LAK, CGY, and MIN)
Oilers currently sit 23'rd in goal differential, 20h in goals for/G, and 25th in GA/G.
However, are around league average in GA, and slightly above in SAA (Nilsson). They're pretty much league average in both PP and PK.
In the past 10 games they are 2.4 GA, and GF, with the TOR & CAR sticking out as outliers.
So realistically they need to keep their goaltending about the same, at 2.4 GA/G, which would be about 17th in the league. And they need to get their GF up to about 2.7 GPG. (an extra 16 goals over the next 54 games). Those 16 goals would bring those tight 1 goal losses into wins or overtime losses.
To compare, last year 26/44 losses were by 1 goal. This year it's 10/17, which is the same percentage. but in the last 20 it's been 8/12 (again these numbers include OTL), and in out last 10, 3/5 were by 1 goal losses.