When do you think Hall re-signs or goes UFA?

[Ripshot 43]

The other issue with giving Hall a 13% or so of cap contract is that IMO he has only had one season in his last 5 years that I would be satisfied paying that percentage of cap. In addition to his injury history he is an inconsistent player IMO.

Is there a year other than 17-18 in the last 5 that looks like a 13% of cap player to the rest of you?

Taylor Hall Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

He seemed to grow and mature as a player his first offseason here in which he then had one of the best offensive seasons the Devils have seen in their history and won MVP. The following season he obviously got injured but had I believe 37 points in 33 games which is slightly below his MVP pace. Someone else said it recently that you can get out of bad contracts later so let’s say the new CBA doesn’t stop this practice from happening. The Devils do one of two things... sign him to a massive deal now having not seen Hall play against competition after a season long injury. Or... they wait to see how he’s looking into the season and take the chance that you either can’t get him signed (and he could injure himself) and face the very real risk that we are a playoff team and have an all star caliber forward playing as a pending UFA. I think trading a player with a team in a playoff spot is worse PR than losing him for nothing like Parise. The casual fan that loves to be vocal on social media would set off a fire storm.

 

[Triumph]

I'd want to know how well that study controls for players whose NHL careers are effectively over by the time they're 30.

There's no reason to do that. That's exactly what the study is looking to examine.

Scoring in the league is up. It's inevitable that some players will set career highs later in their career as a result. It doesn't change the fact that the peak age for scoring in the NHL is around 23-24.

 

[Classic Devil]

There's no reason to do that. That's exactly what the study is looking to examine.

Scoring in the league is up. It's inevitable that some players will set career highs later in their career as a result. It doesn't change the fact that the peak age for scoring in the NHL is around 23-24.

Sure but I think players who last to 35 have a much shallower slope and may peak later.

 

[Triumph]

Sure but I think players who last to 35 have a much shallower slope and may peak later.

I agree, but you won't know that until they do that. If you want to get granular on projecting individual players' performance forward, maybe you'd look at something like that, but in the aggregate it's not helpful.

 

[Classic Devil]

I agree, but you won't know that until they do that. If you want to get granular on projecting individual players' performance forward, maybe you'd look at something like that, but in the aggregate it's not helpful.

It is if you’re not really dealing with an aggregate but dealing with two essentially independent distributions.

 

[devilsblood]

There were 7 players in the top 20 in scoring this season who were younger then 25, 13 who were 25 or older, 6 of those were 30 or older.

 

[mtnet]

I can't help but look at the thread again when bumped but I should just chill and take a wait and see approach as I suspect that's what Ray is going to do. Since Hall was in no hurry to sign, I can see Ray feeling the same way since we can only speculate what he's aware of with regard to the injury and recovery.

On the other hand if Hall said he's ready, I think they'd ink something soon but I don't think things are going that way. Hall is betting on himself and Ray has time so he's going to use it.

 

[Hisch13r]

I can't help but look at the thread again when bumped but I should just chill and take a wait and see approach as I suspect that's what Ray is going to do. Since Hall was in no hurry to sign, I can see Ray feeling the same way since we can only speculate what he's aware of with regard to the injury and recovery.

On the other hand if Hall said he's ready, I think they'd ink something soon but I don't think things are going that way. Hall is betting on himself and Ray has time so he's going to use it.

If Hall was willing to sign right now and I am Ray I don't even think I could sign him before seeing him throughout camp

 

[Triumph]

It is if you’re not really dealing with an aggregate but dealing with two essentially independent distributions.

What you're talking about is generally called 'binning' and it's something you do when you want to bias the results. I cannot see how there are two independent distributions here because we can't know who the players are who will be playing in the league in their 30s when they're in their 20s.

EDIT: This was how Tulsk.y looked at it, controlling for that very thing

 

[DerekDevils30]

I would love for Hall to stick around for the rest of his career but, at the same time, Ray has done a very nice job stocking the shelves up front. Even without Hall in the lineup, the offense looks quite good with plenty of room for improvement among guys like Hischier, Bratt, Hughes, Gusev, Zacha, Boqvist, etc. There is a lot to like about the group we have now even without Hall. It's about as deep a group as you'll find in terms of talent.

Will be very interesting to see how this shakes out

 

[Triumph]

Well there's two different statements here - would I argue that 27 is the 'prime' of a player's career, sure, but is it an average player's peak age, no. Some guys will peak at 27, most will peak before, but a player should not be much worse than his peak at 27.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

thats hilarious given how I have seen most of your trade proposals.

Forwards do not peak at 27. Yes, there are outliers just as they are with everything else. However, most of the time that is not the case.

Never said a forward "peaks" at 27. I said when Hischier is 26/27 and Hughes is 24, the Devils will have two superstar centers in the primes of their career. Which is true.

Besides, it absolutely is the case. Most forwards are better players at 27 than 21. Maybe not points wise, but overall play on both sides of the puck? Absolutely.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

Well there's two different statements here - would I argue that 27 is the 'prime' of a player's career, sure, but is it an average player's peak age, no. Some guys will peak at 27, most will peak before, but a player should not be much worse than his peak at 27.

Star players are in their primes from about 23-29, generally.

Hughes and Hischier will both be star players.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

@Zajacs Bowl Cut

Not to mention, you're completely contradicting yourself by stating forwards primes are in their early 20s, then advocating to sign Taylor Hall to an 8 year deal at 10+ million AAV which brings him through years 29-36.

Taylor Hall, by the way, won the Hart trophy in his age 26 season. Then had 37 points in 33 games (90 point pace) in his age 27 season. That looks like a prime to me...

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

because as someone mentioned the other day...are you going to get better value out of that $10 million in the next 3-4 years? Most likely not.

I don't really care about year 6/7/8 of Hall's deal. Its easy enough in today's NHL to dump a contract somehow nowadays.

 

[Devilsfan118]

Bumpity bump bump.

All quiet - still had some hopes this would get done before camp but it's looking less likely by the day.

 

[Hisch13r]

Bumpity bump bump.

All quiet - still had some hopes this would get done before camp but it's looking less likely by the day.

I never thought getting it done before the season was even an option. He wants to see the team perform. I'd be shocked if it's done before at least Thanksgiving

 

[My3Sons]

Bumpity bump bump.

All quiet - still had some hopes this would get done before camp but it's looking less likely by the day.

Both sides suggested they were in no rush, probably for different reasons. I think that Shero is probably still having discussions with the agent quietly which is probably a good thing.

 

[Triumph]

Neither side has huge incentive to sign now.

It's also worth noting that we've seen almost no extensions of this sort. Andrei Vasilevskiy, Samuel Girard, and Connor Clifton. Those are the only three players who were eligible to be free agents next season who've signed extensions.

 

[mtnet]

We need an updated pic of Shero's desk files

 

[FooteBahl]

Bumpity bump bump.

All quiet - still had some hopes this would get done before camp but it's looking less likely by the day.

I still have two days for my vote to come to fruition. I am not giving up!

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

I never thought getting it done before the season was even an option. He wants to see the team perform. I'd be shocked if it's done before at least Thanksgiving

And most importantly the team needs to see how his knee holds up in regular season action. It would not surprise me if Hall gets off to a slow start this season due to a less than optimal offseason because he was rehabbing his injury.

 

[HBK27]

I was in the camp of dealing Hall if he wasn't signed by the start of the season, but I've shifted into wanting to see how he performs with the surgically repaired knee before NJ tries to re-sign him.

Hopefully a deal gets done in-season at a reasonable cost. Not sure how I feel about holding onto him vs. dealing him at the deadline if he's still unsigned before seeing how things play out.

 

[ScottyK]

I never thought getting it done before the season was even an option. He wants to see the team perform. I'd be shocked if it's done before at least Thanksgiving

I think Ray wants a extended look at his knee as well

 

[Blackjack]

I think Ray wants a extended look at his knee as well

Extended and flexed, at the very least.