When do you think Hall re-signs or goes UFA?

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Seems like people are of the mindset that Hall wouldn’t get much via trade. The Erik karlsson trade seems like a good comp — both in their prime, coming with injury concerns, MVP caliber, yeah winger vs defense but in EK’s case he made it abundantly clear he’d not re-sign with his team so the Sens had little choice. Halls making only $6m so yeah would be odd to sell the farm for a possible rental but some team could convince themselves they’ll win the cup and then can clear out a few deadweight contracts to re-sign him

To be totally honest, not that familiar with the players the Sens got back for EK but look like they are both u25 and had good seasons, one defender and one forward.

@Bleedred can you assess the EK trade and what Tierney/Demelo’s comps would be on a team like ours (if they exist)?

I just stumbled upon this thread by accident and I’ll try to give my best guess on Devils players:

Chris Tierney = Blake Coleman
Dylan DeMelo = Connor Carrick
Joshua Norris = Michael McLeod
Rudolfs Balcers = Brandon Bignac
And then there was a 2020 1st round pick, 2019 2nd round pick, 2021 conditional 2nd based on re-signing that would upgrade to a 2021 1st if he re-signed and made the Cup Finals.

I think the Shark players were a little more valuable than the Devils players that I listed, but those are probably the best comparisons in your organization.

 

[Hisch13r]

Byram or Makar will not happen. Timmins was apparently looking like a world beater before he got hurt.

Sure Timmins looked great but then he missed an entire year at 20 years old and head injuries are always worrisome. If this is a mid year trade and he still looks great then maybe. Ottawa got Brannstrom for Stone so I wonder if Newhook would be on the table. Although there is some risk there because of the college route but he'd likely not be a guy who needs more than 2 or 3 years

 

[MartyOwns]

If the Avs are good enough to make a run this year: Connor Timmins and a 1st. I'd probably do it for that assuming Timmons is having a good year in the AHL.

i’m not really sold on timmins, they would have to sweeten the pot a bit

 

[Billdo]

I thought you said realistic trades?

I know I know. I just still love Byrams potential.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

teams get out of "bad contracts" all the time in the NHL

I'm not worried about what Hall might be at 34 years old. Our window might be closed by then anyways.

Our window might be closed by then?

Nico Hischier will be 26/27 and Jack Hughes will be 24 when Taylor Hall is 34. The Devils window will not be closed when they have two superstar centers in the prime of their careers on the roster.

 

[Blackjack]

I think the Shark players were a little more valuable than the Devils players that I listed, but those are probably the best comparisons in your organization.

I would agree with that.

Anyway, I think we have a lot of middle six guys already. Really like to get a young, top six defenseman and a 1st.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Our window might be closed by then?

Nico Hischier will be 26/27 and Jack Hughes will be 24 when Taylor Hall is 34. The Devils window will not be closed when they have two superstar centers in the prime of their careers on the roster.

27 is absolutely not the prime of a forward's career. Lets also wait for Hughes to play a few games before we crown him a superstar. I also love Nico Hischier but he is not a superstar.

Anyways I am not going to argue about the THEORETICAL team 5-6 years from now. The main overall point is teams get out of "bad" contracts all the time in today's NHL. You shouldn't not sign a guy now because you're worried he might be bad in 5-6 years.

 

[FooteBahl]

27 is absolutely not the prime of a forward's career. Lets also wait for Hughes to play a few games before we crown him a superstar. I also love Nico Hischier but he is not a superstar.

Anyways I am not going to argue about the THEORETICAL team 5-6 years from now. The main overall point is teams get out of "bad" contracts all the time in today's NHL. You shouldn't not sign a guy now because you're worried he might be bad in 5-6 years.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.2646054

According to this study, the peak forward performance is 28 and defense at 29. Interesting read.

It’s too early to claim that either Jack or Nico could be superstars.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I really don't buy that a forward's peak scoring age is 28. That study is also from 5 years ago.

I think @Triumph has posted a study in the past indicating a forward's "prime scoring years" are around 22-24 years old or something like that

 

[New Jersey]

I firmly believe that both Jack and Nico will be "star" players, insofar as their value to their respective club.

 

[None Shall Pass]

Yeah the Blues just a won a cup with their six best regular season scorers averaging over 26 years old. (27, 27, 27, 30, 32, 26). They beat the Bruins, whose top two centers are 33 and 32.

If we're not contending in 5-6 years, it's because something went wrong, not because Nico is 26.

 

[Hisch13r]

Generally guys peak in their mid 20's but it's not like there's a steep drop off right after that. There's usually a slow and steady decline

 

[Triumph]

The Blues are probably the weakest team to win the Stanley Cup since the 2006 Hurricanes.

Moreover, the issue with Hischier and Hughes is that they will both be paid like 1st overall picks when they're off their ELCs. Barring some sort of collapse by Hischier this season, he will get paid a lot of money.

That study is 100% wrong and it's galling that it's the first result for this sort of thing. It's not correct.

 

[NjDevs4994]

Guys peak in their early to mid 20’s but aren’t usually eligible for the big ufa contract until their almost 30 and past their “scoring prime” and your paying for past performance and not their best years going forward.

 

[devilsblood]

Guys point totals may peak that early, but their all around games continue to improve.

I also think the average can be misleading. Patrice Bergeron just had his best offensive season at 33. Marchand's 28-29-30 year old seasons are significantly better then his 22-23-24 year old seasons, and his 30 year old season was his career high. Blake wheeler 31-32 year old seasons are the best in his career.

Point here, the idea that our window might be closed in 5 years is, to put it mildly, super shaky.

Never mind claiming guys peak at 24, while also advocating we lock up a 28 year old with to an 8 year contract.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

All you did was point out outliers. Of course there will be exceptions to the norm.

My entire point with starting this whole debate is I don't really care about years 6/7/8 of the theoretical Hall contract in 2019. Who knows where the team and the salary cap is by then? Hall could be fully healthy for all 8 years or he could get severely injured in the first game of the new contract...no one really knows.

 

[devilsblood]

Let's say we don't the count Blues for some reason, and throw the Bruins out as well. Then how bout Crosby winning at 29 and 30, Malkin was a year older then him, . Ovechkin and Backstrom were both over 30.

 

[devilsblood]

All you did was point out outliers. Of course there will be exceptions to the norm.

My entire point with starting this whole debate is I don't really care about years 6/7/8 of the theoretical Hall contract in 2019. Who knows where the team and the salary cap is by then? Hall could be fully healthy for all 8 years or he could get severely injured in the first game of the new contract...no one really knows.

Patrick Kane career high at 30. Kopitar had a career high at 30. The league is filled with outliers.

And if my GM is going with the "I don't really care about years 6-7-8" philosophy, then I want a new GM.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Patrick Kane career high at 30. Kopitar had a career high at 30. The league is filled with outliers.

And if my GM is going with the "I don't really care about years 6-7-8" philosophy, then I want a new GM.

guess you aren't signing Taylor Hall then because he isn't signing a 5 year deal.

 

[Oneiro]

The bottom line is to have some of the best talent relative to the rest of the league.

In a vacuum, yeah Monahan, Johansen, etc. are good players. But I do not think they take you to the promised land as 1Cs against the likes of MacKinnon, O'Reilly, etc. let alone a Backstrom, Crosby, Bergeron or Matthews. It feels dumb typing it out but having the best players in the league is more important than anything else. I really think people lose sight of the obvious when they start talking about players going one way or the other. You draft well and you keep your stars and you'll be fine.

It's why we will lose a Hall trade unless we get one of the best prospects in the NHL back.

 

[devilsblood]

guess you aren't signing Taylor Hall then because he isn't signing a 5 year deal.

Well, with that knee I'm hesitant, but I don't really know the deal. If he were completely healthy it would be an easy call, but remember I'm the one posting the career highs and cup winners in the over 30 club, so I have a different take then you.

 

[devilsblood]

The bottom line is to have some of the best talent relative to the rest of the league.

In a vacuum, yeah Monahan, Johansen, etc. are good players. But I do not think they take you to the promised land as 1Cs against the likes of MacKinnon, O'Reilly, etc. let alone a Backstrom, Crosby, Bergeron or Matthews. It feels dumb typing it out but having the best players in the league is more important than anything else. I really think people lose sight of the obvious when they start talking about players going one way or the other.

It's why we will lose a Hall trade unless we get one of the best prospects in the NHL back.

Caveat here is O'Reilly wasn't really considered one of the best fwd's in the league. I'd say lower then Johansen. Winning raises guys profiles.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

Just my feeling on the situation. That amount of money for a player with his history (good and bad) and I think the 2nd half of that deal would be money that could be spent more wisely elsewhere. Love the player and if he shows he’s healthy it would be hard as a GM to not resign a willing player. I believe the harder decision would be to trade or let him walk thinking ahead 5 years down the line. I honestly don’t know what my decision would be.

The other issue with giving Hall a 13% or so of cap contract is that IMO he has only had one season in his last 5 years that I would be satisfied paying that percentage of cap. In addition to his injury history he is an inconsistent player IMO.

Is there a year other than 17-18 in the last 5 that looks like a 13% of cap player to the rest of you?

Taylor Hall Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[Oneiro]

Caveat here is O'Reilly wasn't really considered one of the best fwd's in the league. I'd say lower then Johansen. Winning raises guys profiles.

From day one, I've thought he was a better player, even if the stats didn't agree with that assessment, but yeah, you're right, ROR wasn't so highly regarded until recently.

I also think the media doesn't necessarily know how to assess players like O'Reilly and Bergeron very well in the beginning of their careers because they don't post 70+ point seasons. With more data, the perception around players like Nico is getting better, but in general, this kind of true two-way player is undervalued until they're hoisting the cup.

 

[Classic Devil]

Guys point totals may peak that early, but their all around games continue to improve.

I also think the average can be misleading. Patrice Bergeron just had his best offensive season at 33. Marchand's 28-29-30 year old seasons are significantly better then his 22-23-24 year old seasons, and his 30 year old season was his career high. Blake wheeler 31-32 year old seasons are the best in his career.

Point here, the idea that our window might be closed in 5 years is, to put it mildly, super shaky.

Never mind claiming guys peak at 24, while also advocating we lock up a 28 year old with to an 8 year contract.

I'd want to know how well that study controls for players whose NHL careers are effectively over by the time they're 30.