Confirmed with Link: Wheeler's extension: 5 years, $8.25M AAV

[Daximus]

Why is it a massive gamble?

If Wheeler is as productive as Marleau is at the same age how is that a massive gamble? Its a gamble handling out any contract if you let that get to you then you are going to go no where.

The gamble is giving him $8 million now to do it without seeing if he can even make it to 35. There aren't a lot of 37 year olds that contribute in the NHL. It's a rarity and gambling on someone being a contributor 5 years down the road at 32 is stupid. At least Marleau have been given 3 year contracts to see how he fairs. I'd have been much more comfortable with a 3 year contract. Where Chevy screwed up is in both term and dollars.

 

[Daximus]

If you assume an annual increase in the cap of about 2.5%, then Marleau's current deal at age 38 will be equivalent to about $7.3M when Wheeler is 37.

Nobody disputes that this is a risk and expensive at the tail end, but it's balanced against the front end impact.

On top of that I think we are paying him for a 90 point season. Sure we may have underpayed him early but that was his choice to sign.

 

[Eyeseeing]

Wheeler isn’t a Honda timing belt that will give up the ghost right on schedule.
Everyone is concerned he’s the next Tanner Glass
Geez guys age isn’t always a bad thing and everyone ages differently

 

[Daximus]

Wheeler isn’t a Honda timing belt that will give up the ghost right on schedule.
Everyone is concerned he’s the next Tanner Glass
Geez guys age isn’t always a bad thing and everyone ages differently

It's just an odd's defier that he will be a contributor at that age. I'm not saying he can't buck the trend I'm just saying he isn't invincible and that it is a gamble regardless of whether some people think it isn't. You could make an argument that every contract is a gamble, to which my counter argument is 35+ contracts in the $8 million range are a much bigger gamble.

 

[Eyeseeing]

It's just an odd's defier that he will be a contributor at that age. I'm not saying he can't buck the trend I'm just saying he isn't invincible and that it is a gamble regardless of whether some people think it isn't. You could make an argument that every contract is a gamble, to which my counter argument is 35+ contracts in the $8 million range are a much bigger gamble.

It is a gamble no doubt.
It's just as likely some of our prospects won't perform to expectations either.
I love the old saying.
"Expectations are nothing more than premeditated resentments"

 

[Daximus]

It is a gamble no doubt.
It's just as likely some of our prospects won't perform to expectations either.
I love the old saying.
"Expectations are nothing more than premeditated resentments"

True but we aren't paying our prospects $8 million over the next 5 years.

 

[Eyeseeing]

True but we aren't paying our prospects $8 million over the next 5 years.

True yes but I believe Wheeler will be an exception for at least 3 years.

 

[Daximus]

True yes but I believe Wheeler will be an exception for at least 3 years.

I'd probably be less agitated about the deal had it been only 3 years. Even then I think $8 million is an overpayment at this point in his career. paying players for what they have done rather then for what they will do is never a good idea IMO. $21 mil over 3 years would have been a much easier pill to swallow. Make Wheeler prove he can play at 35 before he gets any more money.

 

[Whileee]

It's just an odd's defier that he will be a contributor at that age. I'm not saying he can't buck the trend I'm just saying he isn't invincible and that it is a gamble regardless of whether some people think it isn't. You could make an argument that every contract is a gamble, to which my counter argument is 35+ contracts in the $8 million range are a much bigger gamble.

He'll likely be a contributor, but not at an 8m level. It's front end gain, backend pain on this contract, as are most UFA deals.

 

[Daximus]

He'll likely be a contributor, but not at an 8m level. It's front end gain, backend pain on this contract, as are most UFA deals.

Which is why I hate them. Our window isn't 5 years long. It is likely to be much longer.

The average age of Scheifele, Connor, Ehlers, Laine, Lowry, Roslovic, Morrissey, Vesalainen, Niku and Hellebuyck is 22.2

If that ends up being our core going forward and we use the oldest players in the group. Scheif, Lowry and Hellebuyck who are all 25. We should have at least 10 years of contention. If we play our cards right that is.

 

[KingBogo]

I'd probably be less agitated about the deal had it been only 3 years. Even then I think $8 million is an overpayment at this point in his career. paying players for what they have done rather then for what they will do is never a good idea IMO. $21 mil over 3 years would have been a much easier pill to swallow. Make Wheeler prove he can play at 35 before he gets any more money.

Wheeler 's contract is not perfect and I'm sure we would have all liked less term and a little less AAV, but IMO at least the Jets had to re-sign Wheeler. Just like we will have to pony up and sign Schiefele with term and a high AAV when he turns 31. Hopefully that will happen with a cup or 2 in the bag. Teams need to keep their stars when they are at the top of their game, even if there is some pain later.

 

[Daximus]

Wheeler 's contract is not perfect and I'm sure we would have all liked less term and a little less AAV, but IMO at least the Jets had to re-sign Wheeler. Just like we will have to pony up and sign Schiefele with term and a high AAV when he turns 31. Hopefully that will happen with a cup or 2 in the bag. Teams need to keep their stars when they are at the top of their game, even if there is some pain later.

Well we might as well kiss this team good bye. We can't run it like a big market team and just throw money and everyone when they turn 30 because they love our city. That is how you sink a team and don't compete for very long. there doesn't need to be pain if we are smart.

 

[Whileee]

Which is why I hate them. Our window isn't 5 years long. It is likely to be much longer.

The average age of Scheifele, Connor, Ehlers, Laine, Lowry, Roslovic, Morrissey, Vesalainen, Niku and Hellebuyck is 22.2

If that ends up being our core going forward and we use the oldest players in the group. Scheif, Lowry and Hellebuyck who are all 25. We should have at least 10 years of contention. If we play our cards right that is.

...but if they can afford all their young core along with Wheeler... good for now, good for later.

 

[Daximus]

...but if they can afford all their young core along with Wheeler... good for now, good for later.

Not if it means having $8 million worth of Wheeler means sacrificing four $2 million dollar or two $4 million players when we have to play him on our 3rd line at 36 years old while he puts up 25 points.

We can be smart and compete. The two aren't mutually exclusive.

 

[KingBogo]

Well we might as well kiss this team good bye. We can't run it like a big market team and just throw money and everyone when they turn 30 because they love our city. That is how you sink a team and don't compete for very long. there doesn't need to be pain if we are smart.

We haven't thrown big money at everyone. Out of all the original players that have come from Atlanta we have re-signed exactly 3 that will have contracts that will run into their mid 30's. One is a very unique defenseman who usually gets rated well within the top 30 defenseman, and one is universally seen as a top 10 winger in the league. In our playoff run last season 2 of them were among our best 3 players. You need to have a balance of older players still producing well with our young core. IMO we have scaled this back as can reasonably be expected and have mostly defaulted our future to the youth.

 

[Whileee]

Not if it means having $8 million worth of Wheeler means sacrificing four $2 million dollar or two $4 million players when we have to play him on our 3rd line at 36 years old while he puts up 25 points.

We can be smart and compete. The two aren't mutually exclusive.

Just look at my cap structure on Cap Friendly and give specific feedback about why they can't manage.

 

[Daximus]

We haven't thrown big money at everyone. Out of all the original players that have come from Atlanta we have re-signed exactly 3 that will have contracts that will run into their mid 30's. One is a very unique defenseman who usually gets rated well within the top 30 defenseman, and one is universally seen as a top 10 winger in the league. In our playoff run last season 2 of them were among our best 3 players. You need to have a balance of older players still producing well with our young core. IMO we have scaled this back as can reasonably be expected and have mostly defaulted our future to the youth.

Little and Wheeler will likely be overpayed soon and they will keep us from signing younger guys. And I will be here to remind everyone that it was a bad move when that happens and I will not like it.

 

[Daximus]

Just look at my cap structure on Cap Friendly and give specific feedback about why they can't manage.

I did.

 

[KingBogo]

Little and Wheeler will likely be overpayed soon and they will keep us from signing younger guys. And I will be here to remind everyone that it was a bad move when that happens and I will not like it.

I don't think it will. Whenever I play around with the numbers it seems easy enough to find ways to keep the young core together. Other than for Trouba who I think is gone no matter how much money you are willing to throw his way.

 

[bumblebeeman]

Not if it means having $8 million worth of Wheeler means sacrificing four $2 million dollar or two $4 million players when we have to play him on our 3rd line at 36 years old while he puts up 25 points.

We can be smart and compete. The two aren't mutually exclusive.

Sure IF Wheeler falls off like that it will look like a bad deal. IF the Jets win a cup it will look like a good deal. I'd say the latter is more likely

 

[Duke749]

Not if it means having $8 million worth of Wheeler means sacrificing four $2 million dollar or two $4 million players when we have to play him on our 3rd line at 36 years old while he puts up 25 points.

We can be smart and compete. The two aren't mutually exclusive.

You can “be smart” and compete, or you can not and go for a Cup.

 

[ffh]

Little and Wheeler will likely be overpayed soon and they will keep us from signing younger guys. And I will be here to remind everyone that it was a bad move when that happens and I will not like it.

Green bay shouldn't have re-uped 34 year old Rodgers either this year for 5 years . If only these gm's of pro sports teams could see they are hurting their teams in the long run.

 

[jepjepjoo]

Green bay shouldn't have re-uped 34 year old Rodgers either this year for 5 years . If only these gm's of pro sports teams could see they are hurting their teams in the long run.

NFL quarterback = NHL winger
Do you see Green Bay contending the next 4 years?

 

[Grind]

Which is why I hate them. Our window isn't 5 years long. It is likely to be much longer.

The average age of Scheifele, Connor, Ehlers, Laine, Lowry, Roslovic, Morrissey, Vesalainen, Niku and Hellebuyck is 22.2

If that ends up being our core going forward and we use the oldest players in the group. Scheif, Lowry and Hellebuyck who are all 25. We should have at least 10 years of contention. If we play our cards right that is.

The caphit was too much. it's an overpayment absolutely.

But it's not insurmountable now.

I tend to disagree that our window is 10 years long. No ones window is 10 years long, unbroken.

Your window "opens" whenever you have significant gains in contract value allowing you to stock more talent then you "should" be able to under a cap ceiling system.

Last year, this year, and next year represent that very well due to us

A)having great talent on standrd contracts (Scheifele, Wheeler, Little, Perrault, Ehlers, Buff, Trouba, etc)

B)great talent on ELC/bargain contracts (Connor, Roslovic, Laine, Morrissey, Hellebuyck )

The issue of saying your window wil l be 10 years long is you are banking on constantly getting Connor value from late 1st round draft picks and depth picks. It's a nice idea but at the end of the day it's not likely to work.

The redwings are in the nightmare their in now because eventually they stopped hitting on those lottery tickets.

--My point--

It's one thing to say our window will stay open cus connor's going to take wheelers spot, and roslovics going to take little's spot but that only happens without a net weakness to the roster if we in turn replace them.


from years 4-8 who's filling the spots of Connor, Roslovic, Perrault, Byfuglien, Meyers, etc? We might have people. Maybe vesalainen. Maybe 19 first round pick. Maybe 2020's first round pick.

We do have people now, which is why i'm adamant that even if we'll be competitive for 10 years (which i agree with) we're even more competitive from 17-18, 18-19, 19-20. It's worth the gamble now.






...also scheifele's super underpaid so just till yourself he's making 8.5 and wheelers making 6.

 

[Grind]

Not if it means having $8 million worth of Wheeler means sacrificing four $2 million dollar or two $4 million players when we have to play him on our 3rd line at 36 years old while he puts up 25 points.

We can be smart and compete. The two aren't mutually exclusive.

again..the overpayment of wheeler is already resolved in the underpayment of scheifele. It's a wash.

The cap structure is not botched. It is no different then any other contending teams.

Yes it would have been nicer to be taking advantage of Scheifele's underpayment but it's not really an issue.

Could it have been better? Yes. But could it have been better while icing a team as good on paper for the next 2 years? I'm not convinced.

it is very manageable to resign everyone. You need only get out of perrault and kulikovs deals to do it. Also (and this is important for our gm): stop giving 3rd pairing dmen 4 mil a year.

You are so concerned about what might happen in two years. Buff could retire. Wheeler could retire. Scheiefele could grow a mustache and demand a trade to the maple leafs.