Confirmed with Link: Wheeler's extension: 5 years, $8.25M AAV

[AWSAA]

The Wheeler contract is bad. The Little extension was negligent. Any trade value he had is gone, likely costs us additional assets to move. They knew the expansion draft was slotted for 2020 and gave him a NTC that year anyway. They'll be forced to use a protection spot on Bryan (soon-to-be 33y.o) unless he waives.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

I think the Little deal is pretty solid for a guy with his pedigree. It isn't an overpayment by any means. He had a "bad" year on a team with 114 points. His bad year was still better then a lot of guys around him for cap hit numbers wise.

You can't let Wheeler walk away from this team. It is just a bad bad idea. You won't replace him with anything you get and I would bet moving him would be a sign that this team can't afford to keep its players. I don't see Wheeler falling off a cliff in the next 3 years. I bet in the final 2 years he is at a minimum a 50 point winger, that is only if he loses a step. If he doesn't playing wing with Schief he will produce.

 

[AWSAA]

How many goals does Blake score over the duration of the extension? Over/Under is 75. I'm taking the under.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

How many goals does Blake score over the duration of the extension? Over/Under is 75. I'm taking the under.

It is a good thing then the 2 guys he will play with will probably score over 300 goals during that contract

 

[Trinity]

Anyway I try to slice it on cap friendly. I think we lose one of Connor or Roslovic with the Little/Wheeler deals. That or we ship away a lot of depth. Myers, Perreault, Kulikov, Tanev, Copp, Dano, Petan could all end up being casualties to fit it in. I think it's going to come down to sacrificing a high end player (Connor or Roslovic) or a lot of depth. Both have value in different ways.

I can't even imagine what could happen if say Petan, Copp, Dano or Tanev break out. Jets might get away with another 1 year show me deal but say Petan puts up a couple big seasons in between LAine and Ehlers. Kiss him goodbye.

That Little contract is the real boner of them all.

 

[Daximus]

It is a good thing then the 2 guys he will play with will probably score over 300 goals during that contract

Are we assuming Wheeler plays with Scheif and Laine for the duration of this 5 year contract? That even at 37 Wheeler will be better than any other winger we have? I'm not sure if that's good for the aging of Wheeler or really really shit for the development of anyone else we have.

 

[AWSAA]

^ It's going to get awkward if Vesalainen is legit. Wheeler may be the 5th ranked wing on the team in 3 years time.

 

[Trinity]

^ It's going to get awkward if Vesalainen is legit. Wheeler may be the 5th ranked wing on the team in 3 years time.

Yup...he'll be on the 3rd or 4th line by year 3 of that contract.

 

[stranger]

Yup...he'll be on the 3rd or 4th line by year 3 of that contract.

If that's true, that's great. Winnipeg would be a powerhouse.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

You are over hyping Vesa. In year 3 Vesa will be a 21 year old. If he has a Connor like season which would be great he would be in the 50 point range.

Are we assuming Wheeler plays with Scheif and Laine for the duration of this 5 year contract? That even at 37 Wheeler will be better than any other winger we have? I'm not sure if that's good for the aging of Wheeler or really really **** for the development of anyone else we have.

On the right side? Only Laine will eventually be better the Wheeler. Could Vesa play the right side, maybe. But he 3 years he will be 21 only. If he has the same growth as Ehlers/Connor he will be a 50-60 point winger by then. Who is to say who is better then, my bet is Wheeler is still a capable 60 point winger in years 4 and 5.

If you have to play Wheeler in years 4 and 5 on the 3rd line it means someone like Vesa has eclipsed him and that is a luxury because that person will in all likely still be a RFA. If the Jets fall off a cliff in years 4 and 5, its probably easy to move Wheeler to a contender especially if we retain salary but I find that unlikely.

 

[Daximus]

If that's true, that's great. Winnipeg would be a powerhouse.

Until all the young players want to get paid. It's like people think Wheeler will be the highest paid player on this team over the next 5 years...

 

[Daximus]

You are over hyping Vesa. In year 3 Vesa will be a 21 year old. If he has a Connor like season which would be great he would be in the 50 point range.


On the right side? Only Laine will eventually be better the Wheeler. Could Vesa play the right side, maybe. But he 3 years he will be 21 only. If he has the same growth as Ehlers/Connor he will be a 50-60 point winger by then. Who is to say who is better then, my bet is Wheeler is still a capable 60 point winger in years 4 and 5.

If you have to play Wheeler in years 4 and 5 on the 3rd line it means someone like Vesa has eclipsed him and that is a luxury because that person will in all likely still be a RFA. If the Jets fall off a cliff in years 4 and 5, its probably easy to move Wheeler to a contender especially if we retain salary but I find that unlikely.

Over the next 5 years when Wheeler is 37 years old we will only have one right winger better than Wheeler? Holy crap I hope you are dead wrong about that or we are in for some real shit development years.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Over the next 5 years when Wheeler is 37 years old we will only have one right winger better than Wheeler? Holy crap I hope you are dead wrong about that or we are in for some real **** development years.

Who in 5 years is capable of 90 points outside Laine? They don't grow on trees

 

[Daximus]

Who in 5 years is capable of 90 points outside Laine? They don't grow on trees

You think Wheeler will be a 90 point winger for the next 5 years? So Wheeler is going to put up 450 points between the ages of 32 and 37?

 

[Whileee]

Over the next 5 years when Wheeler is 37 years old we will only have one right winger better than Wheeler? Holy crap I hope you are dead wrong about that or we are in for some real **** development years.

It depends on how good Wheeler is at 37. If he's scoring 55-60 points, then it's not such a big deal if you have Laine, Wheeler and xxxxx at RW. If you have a young RW better than Wheeler, then you have a great line-up, any way you slice it.

In any case, I think this is about the next 3-4 seasons, and the future will have to take care of itself.

 

[AWSAA]

Who in 5 years is capable of 90 points outside Laine? They don't grow on trees

Whichever one of Connor/Ehlers plays with Scheifele & Laine should be up there in points (assuming they're on PP1 as well).

 

[Joe Hallenback]

You think Wheeler will be a 90 point winger for the next 5 years? So Wheeler is going to put up 450 points between the ages of 32 and 37?

No, actually I wouldn't be surprised if never reaches that number again. But I can see say seasons of 80,80,70,60,50.

 

[Daximus]

It depends on how good Wheeler is at 37. If he's scoring 55-60 points, then it's not such a big deal if you have Laine, Wheeler and xxxxx at RW. If you have a young RW better than Wheeler, then you have a great line-up, any way you slice it.

In any case, I think this is about the next 3-4 seasons, and the future will have to take care of itself.

Of players 35 years or older who put up more than 40 points. Justin Williams, Henrik Zetterberg, Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin and Patrick Marleau. You likely could have added Joe Thornton to that list had he played a good chunk of the season.

There were 22 players aged 35 or older who played at least 40 games last year. The odds of anyone being a major contributor at 35, let alone 37 is really really reaaaaallly low.

 

[Daximus]

No, actually I wouldn't be surprised if never reaches that number again. But I can see say seasons of 80,80,70,60,50.

If Wheelers skating goes at any point over the back end of that contract we could be in serious trouble.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

If Wheelers skating goes at any point over the back end of that contract we could be in serious trouble.

You can say that about anyone. That is just speculation. He could get injured,he could demand a trade out of town next year and so forth.

Is Wheeler not a top player in the NHL? If his skating stays relatively the same when he is 37 could he not produce at an acceptable level?

 

[Daximus]

You can say that about anyone. That is just speculation. He could get injured,he could demand a trade out of town next year and so forth.

Is Wheeler not a top player in the NHL? If his skating stays relatively the same when he is 37 could he not produce at an acceptable level?

That's the thing. It's a massive gamble to assume it will.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

That's the thing. It's a massive gamble to assume it will.

Why is it a massive gamble?

If Wheeler is as productive as Marleau is at the same age how is that a massive gamble? Its a gamble handling out any contract if you let that get to you then you are going to go no where.

 

[Whileee]

Of players 35 years or older who put up more than 40 points. Justin Williams, Henrik Zetterberg, Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin and Patrick Marleau. You likely could have added Joe Thornton to that list had he played a good chunk of the season.

There were 22 players aged 35 or older who played at least 40 games last year. The odds of anyone being a major contributor at 35, let alone 37 is really really reaaaaallly low.

Wheeler fits much more with the players you list above than with the rest of the other 35+ year olds, don't you think?

 

[Whileee]

If Wheelers skating goes at any point over the back end of that contract we could be in serious trouble.

If you assume an annual increase in the cap of about 2.5%, then Marleau's current deal at age 38 will be equivalent to about $7.3M when Wheeler is 37.

Nobody disputes that this is a risk and expensive at the tail end, but it's balanced against the front end impact.

 

[scarbrow21]

The Wheeler contract is bad. The Little extension was negligent. Any trade value he had is gone, likely costs us additional assets to move. They knew the expansion draft was slotted for 2020 and gave him a NTC that year anyway. They'll be forced to use a protection spot on Bryan (soon-to-be 33y.o) unless he waives.

As much as I also don't like the Little extension at the time it was A) necessary due to the C depth we had b) below market value that he likely could have gotten on the market and c) If the expansion draft is like the vegas draft, Little will either be a NMC or a modified NTC depending on when their approval goes through. The earliest it could/would happen is 20/21 in which case, if they actually had the draft Little would have a full NMC but the more realistic scenario is that it gets pushed to 21/22 which would be a NTC which DOES NOT require protection in an expansion draft (following the same previous expansion draft rules).