Salary Cap: What to do with Matt Murray (poll)

[Le Magnifique 66]

There is absolutely no rush of trading Matt Murray, but if a team comes calling and is desperate, I'd definitely listen and take the deal if it's a great return

 

[Empoleon8771]

Regardless of whether trading Murray is smart, the idea of trading Murray and making DeSmith the backup is just needlessly risky and not something the Penguins should be doing. If you're trading Murray, you can't go into a year with just a solid backup for Jarry. You have to get a guy capable of being a starter if Jarry falters.

It's why I don't see a good reason to trade Murray before you have to. There is very low risk with re-signing Murray and running with a Murray-Jarry platoon for next year, and then deciding on who to keep before expansion draft. It is very unlikely that both Murray and Jarry suck, so the biggest "risk" you have with going that route is Murray turning into Martin Jones. I don't see that as very likely, either. If you trade Murray, you're putting all of your eggs in the Jarry basket unless you sign someone like Lehner. If you go with DeSmith as the backup and Jarry falters, you're royally screwed for the playoffs next year and probably screwed going forward. No return that Murray would reasonably bring back is worth that risk. If you sign someone like Lehner or Greiss in free agency (or acquire someone like that in a Murray trade), you can't acquire a Kane or Nylander type of guy for Murray because of the cap.

I just don't see a reasonable scenario that makes it worth trading Murray this year. If you trade Murray, you're either making goaltending a massive potential problem or you're going to replace Murray with a similarly priced goalie and will have difficulties getting win-now help for him. For me to even consider trading Murray, you basically have to sign someone like Greiss or Lehner in free agency plus get a top-4 LD or top-6 RWer on an ELC for Murray.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

It's a big assumption, but assuming Jarry and Murray play this way for the remainder of the season, you're going to be really hard-pressed to not have Jarry as your starter going into next season. Any other year, Jarry playing unbelievably well would be a good problem to have. The year Murray's up for his new contract? Not sure.

I don't know if Jarry is truly as good as his numbers show this season, but he's a damn good goalie and his ability to play the puck is a positive element that Murray will never be able to compete with. If Murray's camp won't take a 1 or 2 year deal as a "prove it" contract before he gets his big pay day, he's got to be shopped this summer. He's been too inconsistent and injury prone to just hand him a blank check and/or commit heavily to him over the course of the next 5+ years.

If a trade appears where JR can land a stud LW or a stud LD for Murray (other parts probably in play), I'd genuinely take it. Goalies probably don't fetch that much without additions, but I do think Murray's age and resume are enough to get a GM to willingly pony up. Even when Jarry cools off a bit, he's still a really good goalie. Murray's also a really good goalie when he's at his best, but again, inconsistency and injuries make that a relatively infrequent occurrence nowadays. I also don't think either guy benefits from taking the backseat in a tandem for any stretch of time. They're both starters, and even in a goalie by committee situation, the one who isn't starting is going to suffer, imo.

The pros of having the two of them playing as a tandem do not outweigh the pros of going with Jarry as our guy and the addition that moving Murray could bring, imo. Also, Murray's camp is going to press hard for a NTC, as they should, so you know that's going to cause problems in the Seattle expansion draft. It'll be Murray/MAF all over again.

 

[BreadManPanarin]

adjective: reactionary
(of a person or a set of views) opposing political or social liberalization or reform.
"reactionary attitudes toward women's rights"

Usage Note: Reactionary means "characterized by reaction, especially opposition to progress or liberalism; extremely conservative." Sometimes reactionary is used to mean "tending to overreact; very reactive," but that sense is widely viewed as a mistake.

It isn't reactionary to think Jarry should be the guy because he has outplayed Murray this season. It is reactive. Reactionary would perhaps be a more accurate description of people who insist on Murray remaining the guy despite Jarry's recent excellence though...

 

[Andy99]

No hurry to trade Murray unless someone gives us a stupid return...I don’t think any PO contenders are in need of a starting goalie either or they wouldn’t be that high in the standings....

sign both Murray and Jarry to two year deals in the offseason and give this competition another year...no reason to make a decision on two good players until you’re forced to...you can decide who to expose to Seattle or just expose De Smith and trade the other goalie who doesn’t work out after next year...

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

No hurry to trade Murray unless someone gives us a stupid return...I don’t think any PO contenders are in need of a starting goalie either or they wouldn’t be that high in the standings....

sign both Murray and Jarry to two year deals in the offseason and give this competition another year...no reason to make a decision on two good players until you’re forced to...you can decide who to expose to Seattle or just expose De Smith and trade the other goalie who doesn’t work out after next year...

My issue with that approach is that I'm not sure Murray's camp is willing to take a "prove it" deal. Why would he settle for that when he's been struggling for as long as he has? It just puts him in the position of costing himself lots of money over the course of the next half a decade or more. I really think his camp will take a hard line on an extended deal, and with extended deals come NTCs. That just puts us right back in a Murray/MAF situation with Seattle.

I'm not sure how to navigate this whole thing. The rest of the season will paint the picture, imo. Either Murray stabilizes his game and we go with a tandem until we figure things out, or he continues to struggle mightily leading to a big mess this summer.

 

[Shady Machine]

Can I just say that I'm so tired of people using "has Cups" in an argument of value on hockey players. Craig Adams has a Cup. MAF has a Cup, then everyone became convinced he couldn't ever win in the playoffs again.

Really the vast majority of players don't shrink in the playoffs. And goalies rarely are permanently great or permanently bad in the playoffs either...they run hot & cold just as they do in the regular season. Brayden Holtby gifted us the Stanley Cup in 2017 then came back and played great in 2018 then played ok again the next year. If one of you advanced statheads can please show me evidence that some goalies are permanently great in the playoffs as compared to their R.S. play or vice-versa and it isn't a Small Sample Size thing please do.

Man are you really comparing Craig Adams' impact on the Cup wins to Matt Murray? I mean, that's seriously what you are going with?

 

[Andy99]

My issue with that approach is that I'm not sure Murray's camp is willing to take a "prove it" deal. Why would he settle for that when he's been struggling for as long as he has? It just puts him in the position of costing himself lots of money over the course of the next half a decade or more. I really think his camp will take a hard line on an extended deal, and with extended deals come NTCs. That just puts us right back in a Murray/MAF situation with Seattle.

I'm not sure how to navigate this whole thing. The rest of the season will paint the picture, imo. Either Murray stabilizes his game and we go with a tandem until we figure things out, or he continues to struggle mightily leading to a big mess this summer.

He’s a RFA...his options are take Pens offer, file for arbitration (Pens then get option of one or two year deal) or sit out the season and ruin his career...he’ll take a one year deal from the Pens to get to UFA

 

[heysmilinstrange]

I really think his camp will take a hard line on an extended deal, and with extended deals come NTCs. That just puts us right back in a Murray/MAF situation with Seattle.

As has been pointed out repeatedly, RFAs cannot get NTCs on their contracts. I think they can be added once UFA years begin, but that's several years off for Murray.

 

[BreadManPanarin]

He’s a RFA...his options are take Pens offer, file for arbitration (Pens then get option if one or two year deal) or sit out the season and ruin his career...he’ll take a one year deal from the Pens to get to UFA

Yeah, this makes sense. I fail to see where some posters think Murray is getting a lot of leverage from. As long as Jarry keeps killing it and Murray keeps playing poorly he is bent over a barrel as far as I can discern.

 

[molon labe]

As has been pointed out repeatedly, RFAs cannot get NTCs on their contracts. I think they can be added once UFA years begin, but that's several years off for Murray.

Think he's only got one more season as an RFA though - so he'd have that aforementioned NTC just in time for the expansion draft.

 

[Pengu]

The NHL isn't like the maffia where you pay your dues and get paid later on. What Matt Murray did 3 years ago should have no impact on his future contract.
If he keeps on having this mediocre season and let's say ends up with a save% less than 91 there is just no way you should hand him a long term deal at 6 million/y.
That is so brain dead I don't know what to say. From day 1 you sign that deal you will have the most expensive backup in the league. Goalies have always been a special breed and they can play fantastic when they break into the league winning calder trophies to fall off a cliff just a few years later. If Jarry continues the entire season with a save% of around 93 it a no brainer to tell Murray that either he sign a short term deal at his current AAV or he's out.

 

[Shady Machine]

For me, the issues with Murray have stemmed from his glove hand being absolute trash. He knows its trash and is now trying to cheat to that side to compensate. Because of that he's getting beat more blocker side since it's wide open. At this point I believe he's inside his own head leading to him having concentration issues on the play in front of him causing him to not read plays properly and track pucks.

IMO I don't know how you fix Murray without fixing his glove hand.

He's a flawed goalie that won back to back cups before the league figured him out, and he's been trying to catch back up ever since.

Sure he can get on hot streaks, and things can go well for him. All goalies can and do. Even the worst ones.

Every goalie is a "flawed" goalie. I don't see the same fatal issues you do. I think he's struggling with confidence and isn't playing aggressive enough so it's exposing things. Whether he can regain his old form for consistent stretches is up for debate, but I think there is too much doom and gloom here.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The pros of having the two of them playing as a tandem do not outweigh the pros of going with Jarry as our guy and the addition that moving Murray could bring, imo. Also, Murray's camp is going to press hard for a NTC, as they should, so you know that's going to cause problems in the Seattle expansion draft. It'll be Murray/MAF all over again.

1. NTCs do not have an impact on the expansion draft.
2. Murray is not eligible for a NMC for the expansion draft, he's not eligible for a NMC until he's in UFA years
3. You're intentionally ignoring the massive amounts of risk that comes with trading a proven starting goalie to make a goalie with half a season the starter

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah, this makes sense. I fail to see where some posters think Murray is getting a lot of leverage from. As long as Jarry keeps killing it and Murray keeps playing poorly he is bent over a barrel as far as I can discern.

Which is why it's dumb to bring up concerns about Murray's contract as a justification to trade him. He doesn't have the leverage to demand a ridiculous contract, and even if he tries, the Penguins will elect for arbitration and likely take him to the cleaners there.

He'll fall anywhere from a short term deal at $4-$5 million to a long term deal at about $6.5-$7 million. Where he'll fall is based on how he plays the rest of this year. If he gets back into form, he'll be getting 5-7 years at $6.5-$7 million. If he's mediocre or struggles, he'll go to arbitration or get 1-2 years at $4-$5 million contract. If he's somewhere in the middle (which is what I expect, he'll finish in the .910-.915 range in save%), I think he'll be getting 3-5 years at about $6 million. Any one of those contracts will be tradeable in a year.

 

[heysmilinstrange]

1. NTCs do not have an impact on the expansion draft.
2. Murray is not eligible for a NMC for the expansion draft, he's not eligible for a NMC until he's in UFA years
3. You're intentionally ignoring the massive amounts of risk that comes with trading a proven starting goalie to make a goalie with half a season the starter

15 games, actually, and he hasn't shown much of anything in his career up to this point.

 

[Pengu]

I have been a huge MM supporter from when he broke into the league and wanted to keep him instead of Fleury and through the slumps over the years
I have thought he'd bounce back. But this season it just went too far. He's had so many chances this season to turn it around and has failed completely. Jarry took his chance and
right now they are miles apart. Now that Jarry has taken oiver the net MM REALLY needs to pick it up when he gets his few chances or he's in deep trouble.
Or I could be completely wrong and the management will be clueless and hand him a stupid deal beacuse of the cup runs...

 

[heysmilinstrange]

I have been a huge MM supporter from when he broke into the league and wanted to keep him instead of Fleury and through the slumps over the years
I have thought he'd bounce back. But this season it just went too far. He's had so many chances this season to turn it around and has failed completely. Jarry took his chance and
right now they are miles apart. Now that Jarry has taken oiver the net MM REALLY needs to pick it up when he gets his few chances or he's in deep trouble.
Or I could be completely wrong and the management will be clueless and hand him a stupid deal beacuse of the cup runs...

He's slumping, he's not Scott Darling.

 

[Empoleon8771]

15 games, actually, and he hasn't shown much of anything in his career up to this point.

To be fair to Jarry, I actually think he did well in the NHL in 2017-2018. His overall numbers were mediocre, but he was good in games he started. What hurt his numbers were that he was absolutely trash in relief, which has actually been the case this year too. He did have a couple of horrible starts in 2017-2018 though, but I think he was more "inconsistent but more good than bad" in 2017-2018 than anything else.

But still though, he's at 39 starts in his career. At most, he'll be at like 60 starts in the NHL by the time this season ends. Even if he ends up with like a .930 save% in 35 starts this year (would require him to have about a .925 save% in the next 22 starts, which is definitely optimistic but possible), he'll still only be at career save% of about .920. Those numbers are great, but they're not nearly good enough to say "we should trade our starter to make him the starter". It's just not nearly a big enough sample size.

 

[Khelandros]

I'm perfectly fine with saying Murray and Jarry are both #1s, but that's more of a "platoon" setup than "Murray is the backup". It's why I've been saying that they're going to be treated like Fleury and Murray in 16-17 if Jarry continues to play well, because there is no way that they make Murray less than a platoon goalie.

When has Sullivan ever shown to make roster decisions based on draft position or how good of a prospect someone is? You do remember that he told Sprong to go screw himself, right? He also threw Pouliot to the side to play a reclamation project Schultz back in 2017. The Penguins even picked DeSmith over Jarry as the backup for last season. We have countless examples of the team showing that they don't cater to top prospects just because they're top prospects.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I keep forgetting Murray's not eligible for a NTC this summer. Whoops. Good news for us, but it's still a situation that could get nasty. His camp will be pushing hard for term, since it makes perfect sense for them considering his previous couple of years of inconsistency and struggles.

The NTC makes it much worse (basically impossible), but trading a struggling goalie is never easy and you should never approach a contract with the mindset of "Well, if it doesn't work, we can trade him later." That's asking for a huge headache down the road. He will eventually demand a NTC, whether it's this summer or next (assuming his camp takes a 1yr "prove it" deal).

Everything hinges on his play for the rest of this season, as well as Jarry's. If they continue to play the way they have, I'm entirely comfortable shopping Murray and going with Jarry moving forward.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You are aware that those are completely different things, right? I'm positive you can read.

Like how do you think those things contradict each other? One group being talked about is a group of prospects. The other one is a 2x cup winning goalie who has been their starting goalie for the last 2 seasons (at bear minimum). Like that's just a stupid comparison, to even imply that "Sullivan doesn't cater to top prospects" contradicts "Sullivan won't make his 2x cup winning starting goalie less than a platoon goalie" is just asininely stupid.

I keep forgetting Murray's not eligible for a NTC this summer. Whoops. Good news for us, but it's still a situation that could get nasty. His camp will be pushing hard for term, since it makes perfect sense for them considering his previous couple of years of inconsistency and struggles.

The NTC makes it much worse (basically impossible), but trading a struggling goalie is never easy and you should never approach a contract with the mindset of "Well, if it doesn't work, we can trade him later." That's asking for a huge headache down the road.

And if he pushes hard for term, he'll be taken to arbitration and get a 1-2 year deal at about $4-$5 million. His camp can push for term all they want, but as soon as the Penguins elect for salary arbitration, Murray is locked into a short term deal. If Murray actually wants to get a semi-long term deal done, him playing hardball is the worst way to do that.

Murray doesn't have a strong case in contract negotiations right now, so again, I have no idea why people are making his potential extension an issue with Murray right now. If he stinks, he's not going to push for a super expensive deal because he doesn't have the leverage to do so.

 

[madinsomniac]

Jarry’s game is just so focus based.... you can see it between his starts and relief appearances... i’d be hard pressed to not carry murray and Jarry to the offseason, Murray is an RFA, let him go see what kind of offers are out there and trade his rights to someone then if Jarry keeps up this level of play...

the only way i trade Murray in season is if he either demanded it or if someone came by with a mindblowing offer... something that sets the pens up this season and years in the future... and I don’t think goalies get that return...

 

[Khelandros]

You are aware that those are completely different things, right? I'm positive you can read.

Like how do you think those things contradict each other? One group being talked about is a group of prospects. The other one is a 2x cup winning goalie who has been their starting goalie for the last 2 seasons (at bear minimum). Like that's just a stupid comparison, to even imply that "Sullivan doesn't cater to top prospects" contradicts "Sullivan won't make his 2x cup winning starting goalie less than a platoon goalie" is just asininely stupid.



And if he pushes hard for term, he'll be taken to arbitration and get a 1-2 year deal at about $4-$5 million. His camp can push for term all they want, but as soon as the Penguins elect for salary arbitration, Murray is locked into a short term deal. If Murray actually wants to get a semi-long term deal done, him playing hardball is the worst way to do that.

Murray doesn't have a strong case in contract negotiations right now, so again, I have no idea why people are making his potential extension an issue with Murray right now. If he stinks, he's not going to push for a super expensive deal because he doesn't have the leverage to do so.

If Sullivan has no problem dumping highly touted draft picks for reclamation projects that are playing better, you bet your ass he will have no problem making Murray the backup and riding Jarry for as long as he can. That is what coaching is about. Who f***ing cares about 2 Cups 4 years ago.

You have entered Charlie Day levels of hysteria with your defense of Murray. He is terrible this year. He was terrible last year. He was average during his supposed "hot" period last year when he came back from injury. He is and always has been an average NHL goalie, that got hot at the right time to win 2 cups, 4 YEARS AGO.

 

[Pengu]

He's slumping, he's not Scott Darling.

21 games sub 90% is not a blip...