Speculation: What to do about Toby?

[Rheged]

Nobody has suggested trading Bogosian, were talking about trading our third best, physically limited often injured D man.

By position of weakness I meant left handed D, I'd have no problem with trading Enstrom if there was a guy I felt better about replacing his minutes this season and onwards. The potential left side of Clitsome-Stuart-Kulda does not inspire a ton of confidence to me, if there was a trade made that brought in a top 4 left handed minute eating D-man then that's fine, explore moving Enstrom for an offensive upgrade.

I just find it silly to be contemplating moving our best left handed D, when our right handed D depth is:

Byfuglien
Bogosian
Postma
Redmond
Trouba

If they're going to deal a D for forward help I'd rather deal a righty, with the way the team is structured currently.

 

[buggs]

Where does our PP rank in the league with Enstrom as PP QB and what is our scoring percentage on the PP with Enstrom as PP QB, enough said.

Ah, not really enough said.

Our power play sucks pretty badly overall. I don't think you can accurately judge Enstrom's input on it this year at all. What are we, 30th with Enstrom and maybe 29th without? Yeah, that'll be statistically significant. I'd be less objectionable to the notion if you were weighting it more to the special teams coaching than a particular player, not just Enstrom.

 

[Grind]

could not disagree with you more. Sure he is not the best PP QB in the league but he is the best the Jets have at the moment and oddly enough after missing more then half of the season so far he is still #8 in scoring on our team.

This season in 22 games he has 7 PP points, Buff is leading with 9 PPP in 40 games and the next closest Dman is Postama with 4 PPP in 31 games

As for last season Buff did finish ahead with 19 PPP in 66 games to Enstroms 11 PPP in 62.

The previous years with ATL he was usually #1 in PPP for D with 28ppp, 19ppp, 14ppp (2 behind big hainsey), and 26PPP


With his recent rash of injuries though I do agree that he has been rendered useless and I hope the future holds less injuries.

Yup.

this year toby is the highest ppp/60 (points per 60 minutes of power play) of all Jets players.

He is also 14th overall in the league for PPP/60 of all Dmen that have played 20 or more games.

He's also the the only one in the top 15 to have a negative PDO (867-which is brutal bad "luck")

assuming 4 powerplay dmen per team, that would put toby in the top 12% for power play producing d men.

I don't know about anyone else but that doesn't sound very overrated.

I agree that all this doesn't mean jack if he can't stay healthy, but he's definitely not overrated as PPQB.

 

[tacogeoff]

Where does our PP rank in the league with Enstrom as PP QB and what is our scoring percentage on the PP with Enstrom as PP QB, enough said.

So are we just going to get a Markov or Subban out of thin air?!

He is the best we have at the moment (when healthy that is) and is not overated as a PPQB......unless you think Joki is better as a ppqb

 

[tacogeoff]

Yup.

this year toby is the highest ppp/60 (points per 60 minutes of power play) of all Jets players.

He is also 14th overall in the league for PPP/60 of all Dmen that have played 20 or more games.

He's also the the only one in the top 15 to have a negative PDO (867-which is brutal bad "luck")

assuming 4 powerplay dmen per team, that would put toby in the top 12% for power play producing d men.

I don't know about anyone else but that doesn't sound very overrated.

I agree that all this doesn't mean jack if he can't stay healthy, but he's definitely not overrated as PPQB.

Damn those are some Garret stats right there

Good job Grind, I have no clue where you guys get your advanced stats but they are pretty interesting.

 

[Grind]

Damn those are some Garret stats right there

Good job Grind, I have no clue where you guys get your advanced stats but they are pretty interesting.

www.behindthenet.ca

learn it... like it... love it

 

[Gm0ney]

Yup.

this year toby is the highest ppp/60 (points per 60 minutes of power play) of all Jets players.

He is also 14th overall in the league for PPP/60 of all Dmen that have played 20 or more games.

He's also the the only one in the top 15 to have a negative PDO (867-which is brutal bad "luck")

assuming 4 powerplay dmen per team, that would put toby in the top 12% for power play producing d men.

I don't know about anyone else but that doesn't sound very overrated.

I agree that all this doesn't mean jack if he can't stay healthy, but he's definitely not overrated as PPQB.

It's bad luck with his injuries too - he was generally an ironman before he came to Winnipeg and broke his collarbone early last season.

I'm not sure if we've seen a lot of what a completely healthy Enstrom can do here.

At the same time, the team has shown it can win without him, and if Chevy were able to parlay him into a Top Line RW and a good (preferably LH) D prospect I wouldn't be heartbroken.

 

[Grind]

It's bad luck with his injuries too - he was generally an ironman before he came to Winnipeg and broke his collarbone early last season.

I'm not sure if we've seen a lot of what a completely healthy Enstrom can do here.

At the same time, the team has shown it can win without him, and if Chevy were able to parlay him into a Top Line RW and a good (preferably LH) D prospect I wouldn't be heartbroken.

unfortunately we'd have to show we can win without him AND Hainsey.

this is why i'm opposed to it.

If we can't resign hainsey (likely) and we trade toby we are literally looking at

Clitsom, Stuart Kulda on the left side.

Not only is that awful but what happens if someones injured.

Stuart Kulda Melchiori? Jesus that's awful.

Even if all of Trouba Redmond and Postma can learn to play the left side, that leaves us with one BARELY legit top 4 d man (clitsome, is the closest to being legit. We all hope trouba, postma, redmond can be that, but we don't know if they are)

It's horrible situation to put your team in, absolutely horrible.

so to continue. In an absolutely ideal fantasy land where even the left side/right side dynamic didn't matter at all, your relying on someone who's never played top 4 minutes in the NHL before to do it.

Bogo - Byfuglien (not bad)
Clitsom - ?
? - ?

where ? = 1 of:

Trouba - Highly touted prospect, looks great, but has never played a pro game.
Redmond - Dman recovering from injury, has done ok in a sheltered role, but generally gotten beaten by tougher comps.
Postma - Defensively weak but servicible bottom pairing OFD.
Kulda - Defensive D man whose only played limited 3rd pariing minutes in the NHL
Stuart - Thrid pairing dman. Every time he's played top 4 minutes he's been beaten by the competition. He is capable of being a top 4 dman in the sense that he can stand on the ice for 20 minutes a game, but he can't do his job effectively.

I don't think any "winning" team would consider that a good situation to be in.

add in one injury to the top 3 and your looking at a second pairing that has almost zero experience in the role.

 

[garret9]

Ah, not really enough said.

Our power play sucks pretty badly overall. I don't think you can accurately judge Enstrom's input on it this year at all. What are we, 30th with Enstrom and maybe 29th without? Yeah, that'll be statistically significant. I'd be less objectionable to the notion if you were weighting it more to the special teams coaching than a particular player, not just Enstrom.

Well since for Dmen Enstrom has been in the top 30 for pts/min on PP for regular PP players 3 years in a row... the percentage may not be uniquely different, but he's someone who significantly improves any PP whether number 1 or number 30 team.

Then add in that other than Byfuglien, the Jets/Thrashers haven't really had any "PP specialist" forwards at that time, so it's harder... Little is pretty close... Jokinen was one of the leagues best until he took the flight here... must be the Winnipeg burgers.

That would be one way to look at it. The guy is a top 30 PP dman 3 years in a row... one year placing in the top 10.

 

[Channelcat]

Nobody has suggested trading Bogosian, were talking about trading our third best, physically limited often injured D man.

Is that Bogo, Buff or Enstrom? Enstroms durability has been excellent over his career, its Bogosian that I worry about.

 

[winterpeg]

Is that Bogo, Buff or Enstrom? Enstroms durability has been excellent over his career, its Bogosian that I worry about.

Bogo had one chronic issue, which hasn't re-appeared since his return after having it surgically fixed, (though I understand how this is a concern, and I too, am crossing my fingers that it stays gone, but as with all chronic things, one never really knows) but I don't think this concussion is a mark on his durability, as it's mild, and concussions in most cases are unpredictable an indicator of general injury resistance on the part of the player whose been hit. (examples like Skinner are obviously different however)

Unless bogo has a bunch of other issues I don't know about.

Enstrom I DO worry about a bit, though if he can really get his injury fixed this off season, I think he'll be fine, because I think he is just suffering the consequences of something that never quite returned to 100%

 

[Gump Hasek]

Well since for Dmen Enstrom has been in the top 30 for pts/min on PP for regular PP players 3 years in a row... the percentage may not be uniquely different, but he's someone who significantly improves any PP whether number 1 or number 30 team.

That would be one way to look at it. The guy is a top 30 PP dman 3 years in a row... one year placing in the top 10.

Hockey is a team game. Despite his individual stats they've won at a higher rate without him in the lineup the past few seasons, and their won/loss record over his time with the franchise has been nothing much to boast about as well, so perhaps his individual stats are near meaningless when given some context.

Some of you talk about this guy as if he is indispensable.

 

[garret9]

Hockey is a team game. Despite his individual stats they've won at a higher rate without him in the lineup the past few seasons, and their won/loss record over his time with the franchise has been nothing much to boast about as well, so perhaps his individual stats are near meaningless when given some context.

Some of you talk about this guy as if he is indispensable.

I don't believe anyone is indispensible. I will trade any of Kane, Buff, Enstrom, Wheeler, Burmistrov, "insert any name here"... If the price is right I'll fly to Winnipeg and drive them to the airport! Heck if I was a Penguin fan I'd trade Sidney ****ing Crosby IF the price is right!

I don't try to point out someone should be untouchable; I point out problems in logic or when players are under or over valued. People were trying to correlate his winning differential to him and stating he's not a good PPQB. I was merely pointing out that all evidence -- when watching without bias or analytics -- point out that these are false accusations.

But you are exactly disproving your own point. It is a team game... more than one player causes the team to win or lose, and sometimes in sports the better team who is even trying harder loses.

In the end when Enstrom is on the ice the Jets' outshoot and outscore the opposition when he's on the ice (minus a bit of TOI with Hainsey this season that was terribad). That to me doesn't look someone who is the root of the record differential.

Common Gump... I thought you work with statistics... You have to know the problems with that logic jumping to those conclusions.

 

[Gump Hasek]

But you are exactly disproving your own point. It is a team game... more than one player causes the team to win or lose, and sometimes in sports the better team who is even trying harder loses.

Not at all. I was speaking to a larger issue. This player is a part of a past losing history that needs to be shed. His individual stats mean nothing to a losing team; what matters to me at the end of the day is wins and losses and nothing else. They win more games without him in the lineup it would appear. If they can move him or anyone else to bolster an area of need, so be it. He is not indispensable.

 

[garret9]

Not at all. I was speaking to a larger issue. This player is a part of a past losing history that needs to be shed. His individual stats mean nothing to a losing team; what matters to me at the end of the day is wins and losses and nothing else. They win more games without him in the lineup.

Isn't that backward thinking Gump? As you always like to say.

You are essentially using a team stat and extrapolating what you think that player would cause for the future.

All the fits you have had over my conclusions in previous statistical analysis qualify for your massive jumps in logic.

In the end winning matters, but it takes a team to do that. If you are outshooting AND outscoring your opponent at the end of the day you are doing what causes wins.
That's why individual stats mean a ****-ton more than nothing. It helps you see who is the one that is causing those losses.

 

[Gump Hasek]

Isn't that backward thinking Gump? As you always like to say.

You are essentially using a team stat and extrapolating what you think that player would cause for the future.

All the fits you have had over my conclusions in previous statistical analysis qualify for your massive jumps in logic.

In the end winning matters, but it takes a team to do that. If you are outshooting AND outscoring your opponent at the end of the day you are doing what causes wins.
That's why individual stats mean a ****-ton more than nothing. It helps you see who is the one that is causing those losses.

Yet for all of his supposed individual superiority, at the end of the day he is simply a cog in a losing team. That is the point. Again, he is far from indispensable and that is all I'm saying. It would appear that you are overrating individual performance however given that team performance is the true heart of the matter. The team has performed better without him the past two seasons; I'm basing that assessment on the stat that matters, wins/losses.

 

[King Woodballs]

Yet for all of his supposed individual superiority, at the end of the day he is simply a cog in a losing team. That is the point. Again, he is far from indispensable and that is all I'm saying. It would appear that you are overrating individual performance however given that team performance is the true heart of the matter. The team has performed better without him the past two seasons; I'm basing that assessment on the stat that matters, wins/losses.

Boom

Couldn't agree more.

 

[tacogeoff]

Yet for all of his supposed individual superiority, at the end of the day he is simply a cog in a losing team. That is the point. Again, he is far from indispensable and that is all I'm saying. It would appear that you are overrating individual performance however given that team performance is the true heart of the matter. The team has performed better without him the past two seasons; I'm basing that assessment on the stat that matters, wins/losses.

Well it would seem that all our players are dispensible then.

Out of curiousity though what are the numbers. Wins/losses ratio with toby and without?

And what is the powerplay converstion % with and without toby?

Im not adverse to trading him at all as long as the return is good and we acquire another ppqb LD

 

[tbcwpg]

Bogo had one chronic issue, which hasn't re-appeared since his return after having it surgically fixed, (though I understand how this is a concern, and I too, am crossing my fingers that it stays gone, but as with all chronic things, one never really knows) but I don't think this concussion is a mark on his durability, as it's mild, and concussions in most cases are unpredictable an indicator of general injury resistance on the part of the player whose been hit. (examples like Skinner are obviously different however)

Unless bogo has a bunch of other issues I don't know about.

Enstrom I DO worry about a bit, though if he can really get his injury fixed this off season, I think he'll be fine, because I think he is just suffering the consequences of something that never quite returned to 100%

If the Jets are eliminated, I would not want to see Bogo in the lineup. I doubt he would be ready in time anyway, but I think the issue with many repeat concussions would be rushing a player back too quickly. I don't even want to see him this week if the last game is meaningful.

 

[jetsfan8]

interesting stats

with toby in the lineup

9-12-1

without toby in the lineup
14-7-2

 

[sipowicz]

Well it would seem that all our players are dispensible then.

Out of curiousity though what are the numbers. Wins/losses ratio with toby and without?

And what is the powerplay converstion % with and without toby?

Im not adverse to trading him at all as long as the return is good and we acquire another ppqb LD

Truck did the numbers and I believe our winning % without Enstrom is something like .620, way higher than when he is in the line-up.

 

[tacogeoff]

Truck did the numbers and I believe our winning % without Enstrom is something like .620, way higher than when he is in the line-up.

Thanks!
It will be interesting to see if the Jets management takes this into consideration or not durning the off season.
Its not really a black or white stat though as there could be a ton of other circumstances that factor into a win and loss then besides one player.

 

[Romang67]

Meh, certain people has been wanting to get rid of Enström since the team started playing in Winnipeg. If these people choose to think that Chevy would trade Enström so soon after extending his contract, they are free to do that. If the same people think Chevy would go into next season with a possible LHD-core of:
Clitsome
Kulda
Stuart
They are free to believe this. I don't, and I think it's stupid to believe it, but I don't really care if these people want to believe that.

 

[garret9]

Yet for all of his supposed individual superiority, at the end of the day he is simply a cog in a losing team. That is the point. Again, he is far from indispensable and that is all I'm saying. It would appear that you are overrating individual performance however given that team performance is the true heart of the matter. The team has performed better without him the past two seasons; I'm basing that assessment on the stat that matters, wins/losses.

...But you are basing it poorly.

I'm not overrating him and I'm not saying he's indispensable. I can't be saying those things because all I'm doing is pointing out facts. I haven't stated anything that was of opinion.

I'm just saying:
1) If anyone (not talking uniquely to Enstrom) faces some of the toughest competition on the team and the team both out-shoots and out-scores his opponent consistently and to a VERY dramatic difference, they are not the weak link in the chain causing the loses.
2) If someone is in the top 30 in PP points 3 seasons in a row they are pretty good at that.

This isn't a hard logical process to follow.

Team performance matters... but correctly placing blame on such performance matters.

That is why the individual stats you ignore are being underrated.
Otherwise you should call team Canada and tell them that they should stay away from Nash as both CBJ and NYR seem to do better without him than with...



Now I will move from facts to opinion... so this is where I could be wrong (but some is based off of facts, but still opinion none-the-less).

Last season I would place more of the losing record on:
*Top 4 D injuries (all of Hainsey, Bogosian, Byfuglien, and Enstrom missing parts)
*Lack of bottom 6 (GST being a 3rd line and revolving door of AHLers on the 4th)
*Lack of C depth (Burmistrov was (and still is) a 3rd line C but was the best we had for 2nd line)
*Pavelec (change nothing but his sv% to league avg and we would have been in 7th place last season)

This season I would place more of the losing record on:
*Top 4 D injuries (all of Bogosian, Byfuglien, and Enstrom missing parts)
*Lack of middle 6 (neither Jokinen, Miettinen, Wellwood (although getting there), Burmistrov, Antropov have performed as true top6 pieces)
*Lack of C depth (Burmistrov was (and still is) a 3rd line C but was the best we had for 2nd line)
*Pavelec (change nothing but his sv% to league avg and we would currently be in 3rd place)

 

[garret9]

We have a better winning record with games started by Mason and Montoya than Pavelec