Speculation: What to do about Toby?

[White Out 403*]

I'm as big a fan of Toby as there is, and when he's in the lineup he's a fantastic hockey player. But here are 2 problems moving forward next season I see:
1) He's injured a lot
2) He's small and we're going to a tougher and more physical western conference.

Do we keep the man here and hope he stays healthy and can be effective next season out west or do we cash out while we can and maybe see if we can milk a high draft pick from someone this off season?

I honestly couldn't answer this question myself and think it warrants a debate.

Click to read more...

 

[King Woodballs]

I am okay with trading him as long as it improves this team, and I am okay with keeping him too.
Either way it works

 

[KBADCJET]

I'm as big a fan of Toby as there is, and when he's in the lineup he's a fantastic hockey player. But here are 2 problems moving forward next season I see:
1) He's injured a lot
2) He's small and we're going to a tougher and more physical western conference.

Do we keep the man here and hope he stays healthy and can be effective next season out west or do we cash out while we can and maybe see if we can milk a high draft pick from someone this off season?

I honestly couldn't answer this question myself and think it warrants a debate.

Injured too often ... trade him.

 

[winterpeg]

I can't in all conscience suggest dealing Toby because as much as it would pain me to see him go, I'm a proponent of dealing Buff in the interest of a better and more sustainable future. (an offensive downgrade but a defensive upgrade, basically) Losing both of those guys would be a move that isn't exactly good for the team.

For the right return I'd take it, but we'd want/need someone to help chew big D minutes. (at least until Trouba and hopefully Redmond are roaming the top 6 with Bogo)

The stat suggestion that we win more without him, is in all likelyhood not a causal relationship, but it IS true, therefore if we used his value to upgrade us somewhere else, it wouldn't be a bad move.

You can also tell by watching him that he does a lot for the team. So perhaps the notion that he makes Buff EVEN LESS risk averse is true, and they shouldn't be together.

 

[Howard Chuck]

You can't deny Toby's ability, but we must have played as many games without him as with him. If we. Can get a comparable in trade I would fine with that. I've also been a proponent of trading buff, although nights like last night makes it harder to stick to that stance. Of course he goes through extensive periods of apathy.

 

[tntkid]

I think trading him will add more depth to the team.

Toby is a good player & the Jets should get a good return.

 

[Samcanadian]

Tinkering for the sake of tinkering. Don't even talk about trading either, IMO, when you have three or four guys that are likely higher on the trading block than they are.

 

[Huffer]

If Enstrom was gone, and Hainsey walks, our LHD will be Clitsome, Stuart, and Kulda.

Unless an Enstrom trade is just one step, and then there are secondary trades to get not one, but two top 4 LHD, I don't see how he is a guy we can move.

Personally, the idea that the Jets better record without Enstrom in the lineup somehow demonstrating that the Jets are a better team without him makes me think of this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc

 

[Gm0ney]

If Enstrom was gone, and Hainsey walks, our LHD will be Clitsome, Stuart, and Kulda.

Unless an Enstrom trade is just one step, and then there are secondary trades to get not one, but two top 4 LHD, I don't see how he is a guy we can move.

Personally, the idea that the Jets better record without Enstrom in the lineup somehow demonstrating that the Jets are a better team without him makes me think of this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc

It's certainly difficult to pinpoint the reasons that the team's record is so good without Enstrom in the lineup - there are a lot of variables. Can we rule out a correlation? I mean, your Number 1 D being in or out of the lineup should have the exact opposite effect of what we're seeing. It makes no sense! Could it all just be coincidence and statistical noise? It's been 124 games...is that too small a sample?

 

[truck]

Lobotomies for everyone who suggest trading him would be a start.

Would also be somewhat redundant.


#jokes


Don't trade Toby. Jets need LD.

 

[Huffer]

It's certainly difficult to pinpoint the reasons that the team's record is so good without Enstrom in the lineup - there are a lot of variables. Can we rule out a correlation? I mean, your Number 1 D being in or out of the lineup should have the exact opposite effect of what we're seeing. It makes no sense! Could it all just be coincidence and statistical noise? It's been 124 games...is that too small a sample?

I don't think you can rule out a correlation. The numbers do show a correlation between Enstrom being out of the lineup and the Jets having a better record.

What haven't been proven, is if Enstrom being out of the lineup is the "cause" of the Jets improved record.

It does seem counter-intuitive for sure like you say.

 

[Whileee]

It's certainly difficult to pinpoint the reasons that the team's record is so good without Enstrom in the lineup - there are a lot of variables. Can we rule out a correlation? I mean, your Number 1 D being in or out of the lineup should have the exact opposite effect of what we're seeing. It makes no sense! Could it all just be coincidence and statistical noise? It's been 124 games...is that too small a sample?

Maybe Chevy should trade Clitsome instead. He could show how much better the Jets are with Clitsome, and get a much better return than he could for Enstrom.

 

[sipowicz]

Short term (this season), if Enstrom doesn't return too soon from injury the Jets can garner a playoff spot.

 

[Channelcat]

Lobotomies for everyone who suggest trading him would be a start.

Would also be somewhat redundant.


#jokes


Don't trade Toby. Jets need LD.

What he said. Besides, its quite clear that Chevy and TNSE love this guy, so he isn't going anywhere. As far as the injuries, he gets a bad rap. He was the MOST durable player in Atlanta. 3 consecutive 82 game full seasons. The Ott hit would've taken out most guys.

 

[jetsfan8]

we win hockey games hen toby is out of the roster
so.....trade him!!!

 

[winterpeg]

Lobotomies for everyone who suggest trading him would be a start.

Would also be somewhat redundant.


#jokes


Don't trade Toby. Jets need LD.

To be fair, nobody said a LD wasn't in the trade return...

 

[cocorico]

Almost every player is trade material- for the right reward.
However, Toby is key to the power play.
His recent lucrative, long-term deal proves his value to Jet's management.
He has been unlucky with injuries, but I would like to see him stay.

 

[viper0220]

I think trading him will add more depth to the team.

Toby is a good player & the Jets should get a good return.

Toby is a good player but he is injured a lot and I don't think he would fetch a lot in a trade. Other teams know he is injured a lot and they will offer low blow offers. We are better off trading Buff(If we wanted cause we can get a huge overpayment). For Toby not so much.

 

[Analyst365]

Don't ever seem to notice the impact of his absence.

 

[sipowicz]

Almost every player is trade material- for the right reward.
However, Toby is key to the power play.
His recent lucrative, long-term deal proves his value to Jet's management.
He has been unlucky with injuries, but I would like to see him stay.

Toby is overrated as a PP specialist and PP QB for that matter.

Toby's small stature will lead to more injuries as his career progress's, were just starting to see the beginning of a guy who will be more injured than not. Other teams have already figured out pounding on him renders him useless.

 

[Whileee]

Toby is a good player but he is injured a lot and I don't think he would fetch a lot in a trade. Other teams know he is injured a lot and they will offer low blow offers. We are better off trading Buff(If we wanted cause we can get a huge overpayment). For Toby not so much.

I still don't understand the enthusiasm for trading Buff (or any of the top 4 D). Hainsey might not return, and Noel clearly doesn't have much faith in Stuart. This year we've seen a ton of minutes from guys that have spent their entire careers in the AHL or lower.

We're 23rd in the NHL in goals against average, and 15th in goals for. The Jets do need another top winger, but I don't think that they can afford to trade a top-4 D to get it.

 

[allan5oh]

I think this "we win more without Toby" idea has merit, but completely opposite of what most people think.

Buff behaves differently with Toby, he takes a lot more risks and is lazier on the backcheck. I think the solution would be to trade Buff, not Toby. Is it not noticeable how much more responsible Buff plays with Clitsome?

I think when Enstrom comes back (hopefully soon) you'll see Hainsey and Bogosian as the first pairing. Enstrom and Buff will get about 20-23 minutes a night, far below what they used to get.

 

[jetsfan8]

I think this "we win more without Toby" idea has merit, but completely opposite of what most people think.

Buff behaves differently with Toby, he takes a lot more risks and is lazier on the backcheck. I think the solution would be to trade Buff, not Toby. Is it not noticeable how much more responsible Buff plays with Clitsome?

I think when Enstrom comes back (hopefully soon) you'll see Hainsey and Bogosian as the first pairing. Enstrom and Buff will get about 20-23 minutes a night, far below what they used to get.

i think the more responsoble option would be to change the lines and trade neither
buff is the last person on the jets i would trade

 

[fatschoonerrat]

You guys are hilarious. Which way is the wind blowing today?

 

[Whileee]

I think this "we win more without Toby" idea has merit, but completely opposite of what most people think.

Buff behaves differently with Toby, he takes a lot more risks and is lazier on the backcheck. I think the solution would be to trade Buff, not Toby. Is it not noticeable how much more responsible Buff plays with Clitsome?

I think when Enstrom comes back (hopefully soon) you'll see Hainsey and Bogosian as the first pairing. Enstrom and Buff will get about 20-23 minutes a night, far below what they used to get.

Another option would be to keep Buff with Clitsome or Hainsey, and pair Enstrom with Bogosian or Postma (though the latter pairing would be a bit soft).

I think it would be a big mistake to trade Buff now. As Wheeler said after the game yesterday, Buff is one of the few players that can dominate a game when he's on. I think that he would be a key guy in the playoffs, since he can raise his game to another level.