What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?

Discussion in 'National Hockey League Talk' started by Big Phil, Mar 6, 2021.

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  1. Porkleaker Registered User

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    With 14 goals on the entire season and 25 points...Really, not Prime Ovechkin, his numbers are dwindling every season and yes, age is creeping up on him whether you like it or not, happens to everyone.
     
  2. Another AZ Registered User

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    I'd coincidentally watched it just a few days ago, lucky I guess.
     
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  3. BehindTheTimes Registered User

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    Don’t think he will get there
     
  4. The Panther Registered User

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    No, it would not be "no question". There are too many factors here to take into account that you're not considering.

    First of all, every long-term player in history has lost games to injury and/or circumstances. If you're doing this for Ovechkin, you have to do it for everybody else, too. If Gretzky hadn't been lost 24 games as an Oiler (18 more goals), 59 games as a King (30 more goals), 12 games as a Ranger (2 more goals), 34 games to 1994 work-stoppage (16 more goals), he'd have been at 960 goals. So, 960 goals.

    If Bobby Hull had played in 82-game seasons from the late-50s to early-70s (70 more goals) and hadn't missed games to injury (46 more goals), and hadn't left for the WHA for six seasons (maybe 205 more goals?), he'd have been at 931 goals.

    What about Jagr? Like Gretzky, he lost 34 games to work-stoppage in 1994, then 19 games in 1997, 19 games in 2000, then three full seasons he left the NHL for Europe... So, I dunno, maybe 120 or more goals? So, he'd have been at 886 goals.

    (Then, imagine players like Maurice Richard and Gordie Howe if they'd played 82-games seasons in their primes.)

    Second of all, there are no guarantees of Ovechkin's doing anything if not for lost games. He is now 174 goals behind Gretzky. Let's say Ovechkin comes to North America in 2004, and in 2004-05 played on the Jagr-led Capitals. How many goals does he score as a rookie, at the height of the 'dead puck era', getting half as many PP's as he did when a rookie? I'd guess 25-30, at most. Then, like everyone, he lost his 34 games in 2012-13, so maybe that was 25 goals. The Covid pause/shortened-season is going to cost him only 40 games, mainly past his prime, but that's perhaps 25 goals, optimistically. So, now he's at 78 more goals than he current has, or 798 goals. That would put him almost 100 goals behind Gretzky. Could he do that? Sure, he could. Or he might not.

    However, a third point you need to take into account is wear and tear on the body, which accumulates the more you play. Ovechkin is turning 36 later this year and now we're talking about adding 156 NHL games onto his resume. That's considerable extra mileage, which he would now be feeling even more if he'd played those games. What I'm saying is, it's quite possible that his inevitable decline (which might be evident this season, though it's hard to say yet) may have occurred earlier with extra wear and tear on him. For example, instead of his 48 goals last year, it might have been 30 goals or whatever with the extra mileage on him. (This is to say nothing of the increased risk of serious injury with more games.)

    The guys who might actually suffer the biggest losses to career totals due to Covid are the McDavid / Draisaitl / Matthews / MacKinnon generation, who are in their primes now.
     
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  5. odin1981 There can be only 1!

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    Missing 40-50 games of prime/peak (MacKinnon/McDavid/Matthews/Draisaitl) instead of around 124 games due to lockouts in prime years like Ovi has is much different. That's 300% higher that he has had to miss. Of the 170-80 games he has missed using your #'s of about 60 of which are outside of his prime ie the two covid season's. He missed 120 games of prime accumulation Total of the two lockouts. The covid shortened seasons means that it is 180-190 lost games for no fault of his own. So the upper end of my claim is slightly exaggerated 181-200. An aging Ovi would only need somewhere between a 31-35 goal average over say the next 4 years excluding this year to pass him. That isn't too much to not be unbelievable. We can agree there at least correct? I am not under the impression that he would total 50+ every year.

    I understand there are hypothetical's at work though. But for Ovi 30-35 for 4 more is what he would need to break it factoring the missed time for no reason of his own. In your positions on Gretzky he really only missed 30-40 games for one lockout. Because at no point in my contention did I mention any man games lost to injury over his career for Ovi. There is nothing either player can do for time lost to being hurt.

    Also the 60 goals you accredited Ovi would likely only cover his missed games due to lockouts. Because he produced .5 goals per game in his prime years. 120 games of .5 is 60. But the 60-70 games lost to covid I would say is around 20-25 lost from covid years. Gretzky lost a post 35+ season so your looking at 10-15 goals for his lockout year tops because at that point he was primarily a playmaker than. With a additional 20-25 total he would then only need somewhere in the 26-30 range to break Gretzyky's record over four years.
     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2021
  6. HurricaneFanatic Registered User

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    Another one tonight... :thumbd:
     
  7. ALLCAPSALLTHETIME Great Dane! Love that Eller feller.

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    #721. His 453rd even strength goal.

    10 to tie Marcel Dionne. 20 to tie Brett Hull. 45 to tie Jagr. 80 to tie Gordie Howe. 173 to tie Gretzky.
     
  8. HurricaneFanatic Registered User

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    He's going to do it. I really don't know why people saying 0% or 20%. Honestly i would probably give it 50/50 right now with the edge towards higher. It would be one thing if he was slowing down, but he's not.
     
  9. ALLCAPSALLTHETIME Great Dane! Love that Eller feller.

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    We’ll see. Whatever happens, it’s a great story for the NHL. The NHL could use some good news.
     
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  10. KaseMeOutside Based

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    one day when he's 45 maybe HF will be right and he will finally be washed
     
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  11. Siignal Registered User

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    A team like Detroit would take Ovechkin until hes 45 at this rate. Ovi will work like Jagr to pull it off.
     
  12. SwedishFire Registered User

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    Very very slim.

    He probably going to hold his shot, but he also needs good skating, like good lateral skating to create new shooting lines for him. With age he is going to loose his top skating.

    The Corona, is it going to hamper the league even next season? If so, you could just weire himnoff that record.

    Futute pandemics, is tjis the first pandemic of many?

    With173 goals, Ocie has to put up at least two 50 goal seasons, and one 40 goal season to at least be sniffing on it. By that he is 38. And Ovie doesnt have Selännes skating.
    It us just unfair that Ovie has lost the 2012 lockout season and this and the last part of last season, that would be 50 goals lost. But thats the game. many players has lostnit. This gap has also meant recovery for Ovie, may has given hom more vital years.
     
  13. ViD #CBJNeedHugs

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    Let’s say he scores 25-30 a year for the next 5 years which is definitely possible.

    If he plays past 40 with a limited role to score 10-15 a year, he’s definitely catching Wayne
     
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  14. HurricaneFanatic Registered User

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    I was thinking this earlier this season when it appeared he was struggling, but 8 goals in the last 9 games.
     
  15. 43sfriends Registered User

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    Man, you are trying really hard to make reality fit your preconceived notions.
     
  16. The Panther Registered User

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    Right... as opposed to the pure, hard logic of the guy I was responding to, who was speculating about games a player didn't play, speculating that he would have scored a bunch of goals he didn't actually score, and speculating that said player would definitely break the 894 goals record... . So, he was really set in reality.
     
  17. KoozNetsOff 92 Hala Madrid

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    No shit he's not prime OV, he's 35 years old lol. He's on 44 goal pace for an 82 game season, I'm not sure if you know what "dwindling every season" means.
     
  18. Porkleaker Registered User

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    And at that rate it'll take him around 4 seasons to accomplish that goal, injuries aside and age aside and numbers potentially dropping off even more. I'm guessing it'd likely take 5-6 seasons and he won't be around playing at 40-41 just for a record.
     
  19. 43sfriends Registered User

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    Actually it is rational to speculate on what Ovi's total would be without the lockouts and pandemic cutting into his numbers. The question wasn't whether he could catch Gretzsky's hypothetical total but his actual total, 894. A number. You're making it into a "we have to treat the players evenly" player vs. player debate because you feel threatened by the fact that Ovi is the greatest goal scorer of all time.

    In your misguided attempt to compare player vs. player, you erred by making excuses for past players like injuries or playing in other leagues which, guess what, were their own fault (unlike a lockout or a pandemic). Then you went even more off the deep end suggesting that one of the most durable players of all time might have gotten hurt had he played those extra games, as if the pandemic was some kind of blessing in disguise for him. Like I said, trying to comport reality to your bias.
     
  20. The Panther Registered User

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    What is my bias, exactly? You seem to know more about me than I do.
     
  21. Alexander the Gr8 Registered User

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    15 goals in 28 games is a 44 goal pace, which is only 5-6 goals off from his usual pace. This is in an unusual season with no training camp, a condensed schedule and he had to be absent due to the protocol.

    He’s still got plenty of gas left in the tank goalscoring wise ;)
     
  22. GMAN23 Registered User

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    If he was born two days earlier he would of been in the 2003 Draft. Another 70+ games but who knows what happens if another team drafted him.

    Every time I see a oldest/youngest to do something graph during a sporting event, you know where they got it listed down to the day they have been alive. I wonder if that includes leap year days because if it doesn't I think the Panthers had a strong case.
     
  23. Roshi Registered User

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    He has not been ”prime skating” for nearly a decade now. He is pretty slow, and has been that way for a long time.

    I see it as an advantage, not minus. I dont see why he would lose much more of skating when he doesnt have that to start with.

    Prime Ovie was a speed monster but dont mix that player into the goal scoring phenomenon of today.

    Selanne at 42 would mainly stand there where Ovie does now, and score at 20+ goal rate. Ovie should be able to do that for a long time and more efficiently, just if he doesnt get hurt badly.

    One thing regression might take a bite is his ability to shoot the puck so quickly from any positions. Motorics might take a dive at some point. But for a top athlete that shouldnt be that big of a worry during ages 35-40.

    I never count for goals he missed in lockouts etc, but its funny to see people getting angry on that pov, some of the same people who constantly rage about whatif-pace for Crosbys injuries.
     
  24. Tender Rip Wears long pants

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    I don’t care if he catches Wayne. For me AO is a better goal scorer. The best goal scorer was Lemieux however. Nothing can change my mind about that.
     
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  25. Midnight Judges HFBoards Sponsor Sponsor

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    Commingling injury problems with league-wide lockouts as if they are the same is kinda dumb because durability is an individual player attribute whereas a pandemic or a lockout are not.
     
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