What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?

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Midnight Judges

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I don’t care if he catches Wayne. For me AO is a better goal scorer. The best goal scorer was Lemieux however. Nothing can change my mind about that.

Lemieux is not even top 10 all time in goals despite playing 90% of his career in the high scoring era.
 

The Panther

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Okay, since two posters have taken great issue with my mentioning injuries (or players leaving to other Leagues) for other top goal-scorers in my earlier post, I will now re-state my point, leaving that detail out. My point was this: If there had been no Lock Outs in Ovechkin's career to date, it is most definitely not a "no question" matter that he would go on to score 894 goals. There would still, in fact, be a considerably large question.
 
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HurricaneFanatic

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Okay, since two posters have taken great issue with my mentioning injuries (or players leaving to other Leagues) for other top goal-scorers in my earlier post, I will now re-state my point, leaving that detail out. My point was this: If there had been no Lock Outs in Ovechkin's career to date, it is most definitely not a "no question" matter that he would go on to score 894 goals. There would still, in fact, be a considerably large question.
I knew what you meant, but I think he would, but yeah... every career has what if's.
 

Midnight Judges

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Okay, since two posters have taken great issue with my mentioning injuries (or players leaving to other Leagues) for other top goal-scorers in my earlier post, I will now re-state my point, leaving that detail out. My point was this: If there had been no Lock Outs in Ovechkin's career to date, it is most definitely not a "no question" matter that he would go on to score 894 goals. There would still, in fact, be a considerably large question.

Absolutely true. Nothing is a given and goal scoring can fall off a cliff at any time. And it usually does!
 

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Lemieux is not even top 10 all time in goals despite playing 90% of his career in the high scoring era.

Come on with this nonsense. Mario Lemieux did not even play a thousand game and he has 690 goals (good for 11th ever). No player in the top 10 has less than 250 more games than him played. None of them come close to his GPG (Ovechkin is the closest).

That's 0.75 GPG. Gretzky, a guy who played in the same era is at 0,6 GPG for his career. Your boy is at 0,61 GPG, which is insanely good, but he is no Mario Lemieux.

And, well, Mario also has over 1000 assists. A total Alexander Ovechkin won't even come close to. Mario also has a CAREER 19% shooting percentage. Ovechkin is at 12.7% (lowest in the top 20 all time).

So, you want to compare a volume shooter* to Mario Lemieux. Fine. But disqualifying Mario because he is "not even top 10" is ludicrous. Especially since efficiency metrics favor him.

I guess Mike Bossy is not a top 10 goal scorer either (22nd)... yet he has the best GPG ever at 0,76 GPG. Only played 752 games though. He has an insane CAREER 21.2 shooting percentage. That's nearly TWICE as effective as Ovechkin. Mike Bossy also has 30 less assists than Ovechkin... in 400 less games.

But, hey, I guess two guys who have better efficiency metrics while being complete offensive players and not volume shooters are not in the conversation at all because... games played and volume!

EDIT: Shooting percentage needs some context though. Ovechkin shooting percentage is average compared to the shooting percentage of the other top players of his era (Crosby, Stamkos and Malkin are all higher, but not significantly). Bossy is #1 in his era, but other players are at 19-20%, so he is not an outlier either. Goalies was worse and defensive systems less evolved. It counts for something. All it shows is that Ovechkin is not the most efficient of his era while Bossy was. Gretzky during his "prime" goal scoring time was actually very close to Bossy in efficiency. Mario maintained a career 19% DESPITE player a significant portion of his career in a lower scoring era. He IS an outlier.

*: Being a volume shooter when you have THAT shot is a good thing. It is NOT a criticism of the player, it is CONTEXT!
 
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Midnight Judges

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Come on with this nonsense. Mario Lemieux did not even play a thousand game and he has 690 goals (good for 11th ever). No player in the top 10 has less than 250 more games than him played. None of them come close to his GPG (Ovechkin is the closest).

Ovechkin has a higher adjusted career goals per game than Lemieux. And Ovie has already played far more games into his 30s than Lemieux did.

If Ovie got to play in Lemieux's era, he likely would have had 700+ goals in his first 900 games.
 
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Midnight Judges

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:laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:

He played 915 games. You ain't right in the head. Thanks for the laughs though!

Indeed Mario Lemieux was fragile, and a quitter, and he'd sit out games if he had a hang nail, and he'd have great players traded away - to the detriment of his team - if they didn't defer to him utterly to his satisfaction.

These things actually make him a lesser player.
 

Midnight Judges

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Here's a bunch of data (not updated for this season):

Greatest Goal Scorers of all time
*As of 3/26/20Ovi*Brett MarioGretzBossyEspoBobby HoweRichard
Career Total Goals706741690894573717610801544
Career Tot. Goals Rank8411122618231
Career Tot. Adjusted (adj.) Goals798738616758461671644925653
Career Tot. Adj goals Rank3617463912110
Goal Scoring Titles933526755
Peak Season goals658685926976544950
Peak adjusted Season 727871695865576554
Peak Adjusted Season Rank (All time)2136454541384
Peak Season relative to next best of the era^^8.30%-6.5%-8%7%-25%10%8%4%2%
Same as above, adjusted^^5.9%10.0%-9.0%-12%-26%12.0%6.6%9.0%-17%
Lead over next best, 1st 5 yrs17.0%-15%6.8%21.0%19.0%-53%-3.3%-36%24.0%
Lead over next best, 1st 10 yrs40.0%2.8%11.0%41.0%6.0%-6.0%25.0%-11%53.0%
Lead over next best, 1st 15 yrs53.0%10.0%4.6%30.0%-23%45.0%30.0%9.0%40.0%
Lead over 10, first 5 seasons59.0%17.0%53.0%80.0%56.0%-6.0%22.7%15.0%77.0%
Lead over 10, first 10 seasons60.0%41.0%32.0%79.0%79.0%59.0%72.0%107%108%
Lead over 10, first 15 seasons86.0%44.0%35.0%70.0%31.0%85.0%105%149%166%
*As of 3/26/20Ovi*Brett MarioGretzBossyEspoBobby HoweRichard
Career GPG0.610.580.750.60.760.560.570.450.56
Career Adj GPG0.6920.5820.6730.5100.6130.5230.6060.5230.668
All time rank Adjusted GPG***162947573
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 5 yrs17%-16%11%18%-5%-50%-19%-34%22%
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 10 yrs13%-19%8%0%-12%-15%17%-13%41%
**GPG lead over next best, 1st 15 years15%-27%21%16%-4%-13%4%-9%16%
**GPG lead over 10, first 5 yrs45%36%44%60%44%0%19%9%50%
**GPG lead over 10, 1st 10 yrs50%45%49%52%38%41%47%55%68%
**GPG lead over 10, 1st 15 yrs52%28%64%34%41%44%61%60%87%
**Times Led NHL in GPG936315835
50 goal seasons856995501
Quanity of NHL 50 goal seasons in their 1st 15 yrs22789011068^301011
*As of 3/26/20Ovi*Brett MarioGretzBossyEspoBobby HoweRichard
% of 50 goal seasons / 1st 1536%6.40%6.70%8%13%16.7%50%0%100%
Adjusted 50 goal seasons1155525557
Playoff Goals65103761228561626882
Playoff GPG0.510.510.710.590.660.470.520.430.62
Playoff Adj. Goals68.598.86898.7164.7553.855.865.271.4
Playoff Adjusted GPG0.5350.4890.6360.4750.5020.4140.4690.4150.541
Playoff Adj. GPG Rank***351649782
**Minimum ~ half the games played
***Among the players on this list
^ 10 seasons only
^^ERA definition for each player (this varies depending on when scoring changed significantly)
^^Ovechkin: 2005-present
^^Bobby Hull: Just included pre-1967 expansion. Expansion would include Esposito's 76 goal season, but I don't think that was humanly possible pre-expansion
^^Esposito: I counted '67 to 79-80. Includes expansion but not the 1980s GPG explosion
^^Howe: For raw totals, didn't include Richard's '44-45 because NHL scoring differed too much
^^Richard: For adjusted and league wide, the sample includes Howe's '52.
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 

Randyne

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He has an insane CAREER 21.2 shooting percentage. That's nearly TWICE as effective as Ovechkin
Bossy is #1 in his era, but other players are at 19-20%, so he is not an outlier either. Goalies was worse and defensive systems less evolved. It counts for something.
The entire era was like a wide open net...
5NXfbYV.jpg

Ovechkin could be more selective with his shots but today's hockey more shots = more wins:
Vegas .626 P% with 33.6 Shots/GP
Oilers .478 P% with 28.6 Shots/GP
NHL Stats
 

North Cole

♧ Lem
Jan 22, 2017
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Ovechkin could be more selective with his shots but today's hockey more shots = more wins:
Vegas .626 P% with 33.6 Shots/GP
Oilers .478 P% with 28.6 Shots/GP
NHL Stats

Haha, Wut? No. Maybe indicative of general possession, but Washington is 3rd in P%, with more SA/g than S/g and not even top 10 in s/g. Anaheim is 25 in s/g, but 7th in P%.

As an aside, it's kind of cool trivia that the Oilers are the only sub 0.500 P% team since the 05' lockout.
 
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JordanStaal#1Fan
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Indeed Mario Lemieux was fragile, and a quitter, and he'd sit out games if he had a hang nail, and he'd have great players traded away - to the detriment of his team - if they didn't defer to him utterly to his satisfaction.

These things actually make him a lesser player.

Jesus Christ, I am out...

And I thought your "secondary assistzzzzzzzzz" and "hitzzzzzz" arguments were bad...
 
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bar1

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Apr 16, 2012
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Will he catch Gretzky or not, he will be remembered as the best goal scorer this league has ever had. By me at least.

Hope he does tho. Looking quite unlikely, very very difficult but not totally impossible.
 

North Cole

♧ Lem
Jan 22, 2017
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Their S% is better than average (WSH 10.1 S%; NHL 9.3 S%). Anyway top 15 teams have 30.62 SGP and bottom 15 have 30.04 SGP

Sure, but if your net-shot differential is negative, then you are being outshot. So how does shooting more = more wins when you have less shots than the team you are playing against on average, per night?
 

Midnight Judges

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Haha. "here's a bunch of data... I have no idea what any of it means, so I'll just spam you with the whole table since it might be good?"

:laugh:

Generally speaking, when quoting someone, you should use their actual words. Otherwise, you are engaging in a logical fallacy called a straw man.

I know what the data means. The data is not new for me. But it is new for you, and new to the other guy who wrongly thought Lemieux was a better per-game goal scorer than Ovechkin.

What the data shows - if you actually take the time to look at it - is that out of all the greatest goal scorers, Ovechkin already has the strongest case as the GOAT. Peak, prime, longevity, playoffs - he has no significant weaknesses.
 
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