What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?

[Nosferatu]

Lol at people who says he has zero chance.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Goal scoring in terms of career has EVERYTHING to do with longevity and that's why Jagr was still effective later in his career when Gretzky wasn't in a higher scoring era late in his career. Gretzky would be lucky to get 40 in the NHL today even in his prime, your nostalgia glasses are truly embarrassing if you think a 180 lbs player is coming in and scoring 80 goals. That's absolutely ridiculous. He'd be a slower McDavid and that vast majority of his points would be assists. If you think Gretzky is getting 160-180 points in the league now you're nuts.

Gretzky's numbers dropped because goalies and defenses improved, you don't suddenly decide not to score 90 goals and if he could have, he would have. In today's NHL Gretzky would not be able an elite goal scorer and nothing in his game shows he would be able to do that. Lemieux on the other hand would be much better suited as a goal scorer in the modern NHL.

It’s easier for smaller players to thrive in today’s NHL than it was in the 80’s. you know what they were saying back then? He’s too small, he’ll never make it, etc etc. You don’t know your history very well and that’s all your post shows.

Wayne would be lapping the field like he had in any tournament/league he played in throughout his prime with relative ease.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

Gretzky scored less and less because of AGE. He himself has said it became harder and harder as you grow older to put your body through the wear and tear to score like that.

Maybe you missed the part in my post that was directly addressing longevity.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

Gretzky’s goal totals went from 55 to 92 one year, then 87 to 73 to 52 (the same year he set the single season assists and points records), then back to 62. You think these numbers are dependent on the overall quality of goaltending in those years?

Gretzky’s goal production dipped in a way that’s very normal and expected as players age and deal with injury. Very few players are elite goal scorers in their late 20s and 30s. Ovie is actually a huge outlier in that sense.

I do think Gretzky made a conscious decision to be more of a setup man later in his career, because he was still the best in the world at it.

Which shows on an even curve he would be well behind Ovechkin given an equal playing field. Drop Ovechkin in the early 80's and he's easily hitting those totals if not more and he's proven he can put out even higher goal totals late in his career in a lower scoring era. I'm sorry, it's absolutely nonsense to propose that if Gretzky were in the league over the last 10 years he would have multiple 60 goals seasons. Ridiculous.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

It’s easier for smaller players to thrive in today’s NHL than it was in the 80’s. you know what they were saying back then? He’s too small, he’ll never make it, etc etc. You don’t know your history very well and that’s all your post shows.

Wayne would be lapping the field like he had in any tournament/league he played in throughout his prime with relative ease.

As elite goal scorers?! No it isn't, you don't see smaller players topping the goal charts, let alone potting 50 per year. The insinuation by the guy who keeps liking these posts that Gretzky would suddenly be scoring 60 or more easily is nothing more than nostalgia fuelled nonsense. As a goal scoring player, Ovechkin literally does everything better. Everything.

 

[Beukeboom]

As elite goal scorers?! No it isn't, you don't see smaller players topping the goal charts, let alone potting 50 per year. The insinuation by the guy who keeps liking these posts that Gretzky would suddenly be scoring 60 or more easily is nothing more than nostalgia fuelled nonsense. As a goal scoring player, Ovechkin literally does everything better. Everything.

Except for last seasons rocket winner Pastrnak, who happens to be a bit shorter than Gretzky (182 vs 183 cm)?

 

[BehindTheTimes]

As elite goal scorers?! No it isn't, you don't see smaller players topping the goal charts, let alone potting 50 per year. The insinuation by the guy who keeps liking these posts that Gretzky would suddenly be scoring 60 or more easily is nothing more than nostalgia fuelled nonsense. As a goal scoring player, Ovechkin literally does everything better. Everything.

Lol you don’t don’t what you’re talking about and with every post you prove it further.

 

[Sinistril]

Year	League SV Percentage	GA per team
19551956 Result	0.919271436289264	174.333333333333
19561957 Result	0.911250200609854	185.666666666667
19571958 Result	0.908692590564119	194.5
19581959 Result	0.905547226386807	200.666666666667
19591960 Result	0.907637789338762	204.166666666667
19601961 Result	0.907906425821735	207.333333333333
19611962 Result	0.9059089198344	208.333333333333
19621963 Result	0.905981421998437	180.5
19631964 Result	0.916273328008133	192.166666666667
19641965 Result	0.908520248028784	199.166666666667
19651966 Result	0.904236006051437	211
19661967 Result	0.90690353046998	207
19671968 Result	0.909532640949555	203.25
19681969 Result	0.908252808413289	223.916666666667
19691970 Result	0.911971239458388	218.333333333333
19701971 Result	0.903054703476483	216.714285714286
19711972 Result	0.902598555700249	235.071428571429
19721973 Result	0.896385945609797	270.75
19731974 Result	0.895985835469464	246
19741975 Result	0.89029926595144	269.833333333333
19751976 Result	0.889891368574156	269.166666666667
19761977 Result	0.887438249823571	248.111111111111
19771978 Result	0.888854584748379	260
19781979 Result	0.882059985532246	249.352941176471
19791980 Result	0.882497362227092	275.761904761905
19801981 Result	0.873823523300991	289.190476190476
19811982 Result	0.871736298968039	304.809523809524
19821983 Result	0.875427120960656	303.809523809524
19831984 Result	0.873218289948328	309.619047619048
19841985 Result	0.876567240079261	335.190476190476
19851986 Result	0.874145085683547	311.952380952381
19861987 Result	0.879949279374208	320.095238095238
19871988 Result	0.879529400972388	250.142857142857
19881989 Result	0.879091516366065	293.047619047619
19891990 Result	0.883140104977793	289.428571428571
19901991 Result	0.888063334815097	251.809523809524
19911992 Result	0.888156543495715	272.272727272727
19921993 Result	0.884913440403036	298.875
19931994 Result	0.895072481330566	266.423076923077
19941995 Result	0.899147158147788	135.538461538462
19951996 Result	0.898585606465799	262.538461538462
19961997 Result	0.904725080487343	232.192307692308
19971998 Result	0.903820032376309	198.807692307692
19981999 Result	0.910017797351513	220.962962962963
19992000 Result	0.905024856837203	215.607142857143
20002001 Result	0.903263780570352	219.133333333333
20012002 Result	0.907751204659	208.033333333333
20022003 Result	0.908837516702346	211.5
20032004 Result	0.910942880806731	204.3
20052006 Result	0.901660245952208	239.1
20062007 Result	0.905241546559374	229.233333333333
20072008 Result	0.910540487130083	241.433333333333
20082009 Result	0.908112242729861	216.233333333333
20092010 Result	0.911269177501983	219.966666666667
20102011 Result	0.912928513241009	217.333333333333
20112012 Result	0.913537596819521	210.233333333333
20122013 Result	0.911922920601525	122.8
20132014 Result	0.913833584408887	211.633333333333
20142015 Result	0.91464662310557	208.566666666667
20152016 Result	0.914910702813825	176.6
20162017 Result	0.913459201037193	206.709677419355
20172018 Result	0.912531061412851	198.709677419355
20182019 Result	0.909869248177018	231.258064516129
20192020 Result	0.909577456459387	197.290322580645

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

<sarcasm> Yeah, it was just as hard to score in Gretzky's era </sarcasm>

PS: When there is 100+ extra goals against PER TEAM and 1-5% lower save percentage over the course of 10's of thousands of shots in a certain era compared to all other eras, then you can not simply argue that Gretzky was significantly better than everyone in every other era at everything. No matter what assumptions are made to adjust numbers across eras, Gretzky's numbers would drop. Significantly. I really hate the 80's/early 90's bias people on hfboards hold.

 

[Fantomas]

Going by adjusted stats, peak Gretzky is definitely a 60-goal scorer in the present-day context. I know that adjusted stats aren't perfect, but that's about the only metric we have to work with.

And sure, Gretzky doesn't look like a great goal scorer. He never did. But somehow he eclipsed all expectations and outscored everyone. That's his mystique.

 

[Porkleaker]

Don't see it happening, he's drying up and his age is starting to show, contract is expiring, might as well retire, he's already in the Hockey Hall of Fame and has plenty of accolades, play a couple more seasons and see and then just retire.

 

[VVP]

Game is faster, defense is better, goalies are better. Lots of Waynes goals in his day he wouldn't be able to get a shot of, some that he did likely to be saved by goalies. His 92 goal season then I would equal to 45 or 46 in this age, I think in his absolute top form he could get to that, that is a may be. He never was as prolific as Bure, Lemieux, Jagr or Obechkin period. This is the reason Wayne wants Ovi to beat his record, because that would definitely cement his scoring legacy. Decades from now when Ovi is considered by everyone as the best scorer in the history of the game people will be looking at totals confused, why does Wayne have higher total. That is not disrespect on Wayne, he was phenomenal, but he wasn't the best scorer.

 

[filinski77]

Going by adjusted stats, peak Gretzky is definitely a 60-goal scorer in the present-day context. I know that adjusted stats aren't perfect, but that's about the only metric we have to work with.

And sure, Gretzky doesn't look like a great goal scorer. He never did. But somehow he eclipsed all expectations and outscored everyone. That's his mystique.

Quickly did this (so I apologize if I messed up somewhere), but if you adjust each players 1st to 15th season to 82 games, and then adjust Gretzky's 82 game goal total based on the league average goals for the year (ovi's first year vs. Gretzky's first year for example) this is what you get:

		League avg goals	Ovechkin Goals	Ovi GP	Ovi 82 game				Gretz Goals	Gretz GP	Gretz 82	Goal avg adjust	Getz 82 Adj
1	2020-21	2.94	14	27	43		1994-95	2.99	11	48	19	-2%	18
2	2019-20	3.02	48	68	58		1993-94	3.24	38	81	38	-7%	36
3	2018-19	3.01	51	81	52		1992-93	3.63	16	45	29	-17%	24
4	2017-18	2.97	49	82	49		1991-92	3.48	31	74	34	-15%	29
5	2016-17	2.77	33	82	33		1990-91	3.46	41	78	43	-20%	35
6	2015-16	2.71	50	79	52		1989-90	3.68	40	73	45	-26%	33
7	2014-15	2.73	53	81	54		1988-89	3.74	54	78	57	-27%	41
8	2013-14	2.74	51	78	54		1987-88	3.71	40	64	51	-26%	38
9	2012-13	2.72	32	48	55		1986-87	3.67	62	79	64	-26%	48
10	2011-12	2.73	38	78	40		1985-86	3.97	52	80	53	-31%	37
11	2010-11	2.79	32	79	33		1984-85	3.89	73	80	75	-28%	54
12	2009-10	2.84	50	72	57		1983-84	3.94	87	74	96	-28%	69
13	2008-09	2.91	56	79	58		1982-83	3.86	71	80	73	-25%	55
14	2007-08	2.78	65	82	65		1981-82	4.01	92	80	94	-31%	65
15	2006-07	2.95	46	82	46		1980-81	3.84	55	80	56	-23%	43
16	2005-06	3.08	52	81	53		1979-80	3.51	51	79	53	-12%	46

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The result head-to-head looks like this:

Year	Ovi Adj	Gretz Adj	Ovi Lead (Gretzky Lead)
1	53	46	6
2	46	43	3
3	65	65	(0)
4	58	55	3
5	57	69	(13)
6	33	54	(20)
7	40	37	3
8	55	48	7
9	54	38	16
10	54	41	12
11	52	33	19
12	33	35	(2)
13	49	29	20
14	52	24	27
15	58	36	22
16	43	18	24

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

Year	League SV Percentage	GA per team
19551956 Result	0.919271436289264	174.333333333333
19561957 Result	0.911250200609854	185.666666666667
19571958 Result	0.908692590564119	194.5
19581959 Result	0.905547226386807	200.666666666667
19591960 Result	0.907637789338762	204.166666666667
19601961 Result	0.907906425821735	207.333333333333
19611962 Result	0.9059089198344	208.333333333333
19621963 Result	0.905981421998437	180.5
19631964 Result	0.916273328008133	192.166666666667
19641965 Result	0.908520248028784	199.166666666667
19651966 Result	0.904236006051437	211
19661967 Result	0.90690353046998	207
19671968 Result	0.909532640949555	203.25
19681969 Result	0.908252808413289	223.916666666667
19691970 Result	0.911971239458388	218.333333333333
19701971 Result	0.903054703476483	216.714285714286
19711972 Result	0.902598555700249	235.071428571429
19721973 Result	0.896385945609797	270.75
19731974 Result	0.895985835469464	246
19741975 Result	0.89029926595144	269.833333333333
19751976 Result	0.889891368574156	269.166666666667
19761977 Result	0.887438249823571	248.111111111111
19771978 Result	0.888854584748379	260
19781979 Result	0.882059985532246	249.352941176471
19791980 Result	0.882497362227092	275.761904761905
19801981 Result	0.873823523300991	289.190476190476
19811982 Result	0.871736298968039	304.809523809524
19821983 Result	0.875427120960656	303.809523809524
19831984 Result	0.873218289948328	309.619047619048
19841985 Result	0.876567240079261	335.190476190476
19851986 Result	0.874145085683547	311.952380952381
19861987 Result	0.879949279374208	320.095238095238
19871988 Result	0.879529400972388	250.142857142857
19881989 Result	0.879091516366065	293.047619047619
19891990 Result	0.883140104977793	289.428571428571
19901991 Result	0.888063334815097	251.809523809524
19911992 Result	0.888156543495715	272.272727272727
19921993 Result	0.884913440403036	298.875
19931994 Result	0.895072481330566	266.423076923077
19941995 Result	0.899147158147788	135.538461538462
19951996 Result	0.898585606465799	262.538461538462
19961997 Result	0.904725080487343	232.192307692308
19971998 Result	0.903820032376309	198.807692307692
19981999 Result	0.910017797351513	220.962962962963
19992000 Result	0.905024856837203	215.607142857143
20002001 Result	0.903263780570352	219.133333333333
20012002 Result	0.907751204659	208.033333333333
20022003 Result	0.908837516702346	211.5
20032004 Result	0.910942880806731	204.3
20052006 Result	0.901660245952208	239.1
20062007 Result	0.905241546559374	229.233333333333
20072008 Result	0.910540487130083	241.433333333333
20082009 Result	0.908112242729861	216.233333333333
20092010 Result	0.911269177501983	219.966666666667
20102011 Result	0.912928513241009	217.333333333333
20112012 Result	0.913537596819521	210.233333333333
20122013 Result	0.911922920601525	122.8
20132014 Result	0.913833584408887	211.633333333333
20142015 Result	0.91464662310557	208.566666666667
20152016 Result	0.914910702813825	176.6
20162017 Result	0.913459201037193	206.709677419355
20172018 Result	0.912531061412851	198.709677419355
20182019 Result	0.909869248177018	231.258064516129
20192020 Result	0.909577456459387	197.290322580645

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

<sarcasm> Yeah, it was just as hard to score in Gretzky's era </sarcasm>

PS: When there is 100+ extra goals against PER TEAM and 1-5% lower save percentage over the course of 10's of thousands of shots in a certain era compared to all other eras, then you can not simply argue that Gretzky was significantly better than everyone in every other era at everything. No matter what assumptions are made to adjust numbers across eras, Gretzky's numbers would drop. Significantly. I really hate the 80's/early 90's bias people on hfboards hold.

Sure it was easier to score then. We all know that. The thing was that Gretzky dominated his competition. Absolutely dominated. He wasn't some random guy that happened to score 50 goals.

He would dominate his competition today, as well. I'm not saying he'd put up 200 point seasons but 150 easily.

 

[Sentinel]

Goal scoring in terms of career has EVERYTHING to do with longevity and that's why Jagr was still effective later in his career when Gretzky wasn't in a higher scoring era late in his career. Gretzky would be lucky to get 40 in the NHL today even in his prime, your nostalgia glasses are truly embarrassing if you think a 180 lbs player is coming in and scoring 80 goals. That's absolutely ridiculous. He'd be a slower McDavid and that vast majority of his points would be assists. If you think Gretzky is getting 160-180 points in the league now you're nuts.

But we ARE NOT TALKING IN TERMS OF CAREER! We are talking how many goals would Gretzky score in today's league, if he had a time machine. And that would be a lot.

Everything else you say is a speculation and are rightfully laughed out of every serious historic discussion.

I think he would get his 200 points and 80+ goals, just like he did back then. You don't, and that's OK: neither of us can prove it. But what's UNDISPUTED is where Gretzky was WRT Jagr and Sakic, and where Jagr and Sakic are WRT Ovechkin. Now you can have the last word, I don't care.

 

[Sentinel]

He would dominate his competition today, as well. I'm not saying he'd put up 200 point seasons but 150 easily.

I am saying that. And guess what: this cannot be proven or disproven.

 

[sxvnert]

If he decides to play until hes 40 then he'll pass Gretzky total.

 

[SENSational]

Some how get the lockout seasons back. Dude pretty much lost 2 or more seasons in his prime because of the lockout and lockdown. Considering that, he's definitely the best goal scorer of all time.

 

[TeeTee]

As elite goal scorers?! No it isn't, you don't see smaller players topping the goal charts, let alone potting 50 per year. The insinuation by the guy who keeps liking these posts that Gretzky would suddenly be scoring 60 or more easily is nothing more than nostalgia fuelled nonsense. As a goal scoring player, Ovechkin literally does everything better. Everything.

"As a goal scoring player, Ovechkin literally does everything better. Everything"

What does this mean, exactly?

 

[Sinistril]

But we ARE NOT TALKING IN TERMS OF CAREER! We are talking how many goals would Gretzky score in today's league, if he had a time machine. And that would be a lot.

Everything else you say is a speculation and are rightfully laughed out of every serious historic discussion.

I think he would get his 200 points and 80+ goals, just like he did back then. You don't, and that's OK: neither of us can prove it. But what's UNDISPUTED is where Gretzky was WRT Jagr and Sakic, and where Jagr and Sakic are WRT Ovechkin. Now you can have the last word, I don't care.

Are there serious historic discussions in hockey? If there were, they would not be based on raw points totals. If they added an extra period to hockey games next year and suddenly McDavid was producing 200+ points a season, you'd rightly protest that his raw totals cannot be compared to Gretzky's. But when we rightly point out that teams were giving up 100 more goals EACH and goalies were saving 4% less shots in the early 80's than they are today, which OBVIOUSLY is reflected in the totals that Gretzky and all of his contemporaries put up, you think it cannot be brought up in a "serious historic discussion"? You think that Gretzky, playing in an era with sloppy defensive systems, little to no video review, a plethora of expansion franchises, etc etc etc etc would still score at the same rate in the modern league because you can hide behind the "but mah counterfactual" argument? You think that he'd continue to have a 20-25% shooting percentage once the butterfly, larger pads, and NBA sized goaltenders became standard despite the fact that his shooting percentage fell off a cliff after their adoption? Let's even go further into what you're saying... between 1980 and 1990 there were 118 100+ point seasons. Between 2010 and 2020 there were 19. Would all of those 118 100+ point seasons have occurred if we just dropped the 80's style players that scored 100+ points into the league in 2010? Why even discuss who the best players of all time were then? We have a list! Is Mark Messier the third best forward of all time in your opinion? Must be for he has the third most points. Ron Francis #5, Dionne #6... god this is much easier in your world of serious historical discussions.

 

[Sentinel]

Are there serious historic discussions in hockey? If there were, they would not be based on raw points totals. If they added an extra period to hockey games next year and suddenly McDavid was producing 200+ points a season, you'd rightly protest that his raw totals cannot be compared to Gretzky's. But when we rightly point out that teams were giving up 100 more goals EACH and goalies were saving 4% less shots in the early 80's than they are today, which OBVIOUSLY is reflected in the totals that Gretzky and all of his contemporaries put up, you think it cannot be brought up in a "serious historic discussion"? You think that Gretzky, playing in an era with sloppy defensive systems, little to no video review, a plethora of expansion franchises, etc etc etc etc would still score at the same rate in the modern league because you can hide behind the "but mah counterfactual" argument? You think that he'd continue to have a 20-25% shooting percentage once the butterfly, larger pads, and NBA sized goaltenders became standard despite the fact that his shooting percentage fell off a cliff after their adoption? Let's even go further into what you're saying... between 1980 and 1990 there were 118 100+ point seasons. Between 2010 and 2020 there were 19. Would all of those 118 100+ point seasons have occurred if we just dropped the 80's style players that scored 100+ points into the league in 2010? Why even discuss who the best players of all time were then? We have a list! Is Mark Messier the third best forward of all time in your opinion? Must be for he has the third most points. Ron Francis #5, Dionne #6... god this is much easier in your world of serious historical discussions.

I can only repeat what I said. With better equipment, no red line, a competent winger on his line instead of Semenko, goalies that drop to their knees as soon as the opposing player enters their zone, "structured systems" that completely destroy all creativity, Gretzky would have a field day in this league. Plus, he wouldn't have to look over his shoulder for assassins, like he did in the 80s.

And then there is this little caveat: if you think Gretzky wouldn't score 80+ in today's league, how many do you think Dionne and Bossy would score? I guess they wouldn't crack 30, because that's how far they were behind The Great One.

What a joke.

 

[Sinistril]

Sure it was easier to score then. We all know that. The thing was that Gretzky dominated his competition. Absolutely dominated. He wasn't some random guy that happened to score 50 goals.

He would dominate his competition today, as well. I'm not saying he'd put up 200 point seasons but 150 easily.

I don't disagree. I'm not talking about his overall domination though. I'm merely talking about his goal scoring ability, which would clearly drop. I guess as far as domination... Gretzky led the league in goal scoring 5 times, Ovechkin 9 times (so far). That's pretty dominant. Gretzky's overall hockey ability is obviously on a level far beyond even that of young OV. I'm not even going near that argument.

 

[Sinistril]

I can only repeat what I said. With better equipment, no red line, a competent winger on his line instead of Semenko, goalies that drop to their knees as soon as the opposing player enters their zone, "structured systems" that completely destroy all creativity, Gretzky would have a field day in this league. Plus, he wouldn't have to look over his shoulder for assassins, like he did in the 80s.

And then there is this little caveat: if you think Gretzky wouldn't score 80+ in today's league, how many do you think Dionne and Bossy would score? I guess they wouldn't crack 30, because that's how far they were behind The Great One.

What a joke.

How much would they score? Answer; Less than they did.

 

[elitepete]

Still bitter about Gretzky not signing in Vancouver I see?

Lol there are about zero Canucks fans that care about that; we love Gretzky. And Gretzky likes the Canucks, along with a lot of our players like EP.

 

[Beukeboom]

Game is faster, defense is better, goalies are better. Lots of Waynes goals in his day he wouldn't be able to get a shot of, some that he did likely to be saved by goalies. His 92 goal season then I would equal to 45 or 46 in this age, I think in his absolute top form he could get to that, that is a may be. He never was as prolific as Bure, Lemieux, Jagr or Obechkin period. This is the reason Wayne wants Ovi to beat his record, because that would definitely cement his scoring legacy. Decades from now when Ovi is considered by everyone as the best scorer in the history of the game people will be looking at totals confused, why does Wayne have higher total. That is not disrespect on Wayne, he was phenomenal, but he wasn't the best scorer.

You're digging your own hole. If Lemieux was a superior goal scorer he'd beat Wayne's records, wouldn't you say so? Mario played during the same high scoring seasons, and he did not have his injuries/cancer until later (even tough it is often used as an excuse for his first seven seasons as well). But he didn't. What we can say he did however, was being superior to Bure/Jagr in terms of goal scoring, a Jagr who at an old age dominated a young Ovie (And mind you, an Ovie in an age where Wayne had already set all important NHL season-records.) So by walking down that path, you torpedo your own argument.

And I don't want a Mario/Wayne debate here. Mario might perhaps have been a better goal scorer than Wayne, but since it failed to materialize in the record books, it couldn't have been by much.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

I don't disagree. I'm not talking about his overall domination though. I'm merely talking about his goal scoring ability, which would clearly drop. I guess as far as domination... Gretzky led the league in goal scoring 5 times, Ovechkin 9 times (so far). That's pretty dominant. Gretzky's overall hockey ability is obviously on a level far beyond even that of young OV. I'm not even going near that argument.

Agreed. I think a plausible argument could be made for Ovie being the best goal scorer of all time. Especially if he passes 800 goals, IMHO.

I just think the trashing of Gretzky on here (not saying you, of course) is unwarranted.

I think Gretzky in his prime, if playing today, would put up a few seasons of 60 goals and 90-100 assists.