What probability do you feel Ovechkin has to catch Gretzky now?

Status
Not open for further replies.

Mulletman

Registered User
Feb 23, 2013
3,974
3,716
However, a third point you need to take into account is wear and tear on the body, which accumulates the more you play. Ovechkin is turning 36 later this year and now we're talking about adding 156 NHL games onto his resume. That's considerable extra mileage, which he would now be feeling even more if he'd played those games. What I'm saying is, it's quite possible that his inevitable decline (which might be evident this season, though it's hard to say yet) may have occurred earlier with extra wear and tear on him. For example, instead of his 48 goals last year, it might have been 30 goals or whatever with the extra mileage on him. (This is to say nothing of the increased risk of serious injury with more games.)
Dude do you even follow Ovechkin?! This was basically the headline on NHL.com before the Capitals were about to play the Devils: NHL Buzz: Ovechkin day to day for Capitals with lower-body injury
So as you can see Ovechkin is actually injured right now but instead of resting and maintaining a better career point per game, Ovechkin actually went out there and played injured and he was able to score this goal:
If this was Crosby or Lidros or Lemieux or Toews they would've sat out the game. But Ovechkin doesn't care about career point per game, he cares about getting actual goals and points to pad his stats so he can beat Gretzky in the long run. 174 goals to go.
 

Mulletman

Registered User
Feb 23, 2013
3,974
3,716
Surprising that he only has 4 goals on the PP this season.
Yes, the caps need to fix their powerplay as soon as possible. Ovechkin should've passed Brett Hull by now and be closing in on Andreychuk's record! Fire the coach if you need, but fix that powerplay!
 

Ajaton Azer

A small hamster
Dec 5, 2005
976
156
Spandex
I think that when Alexander Ovechkin is playing NHL games he is going to score NHL goals. So the probability is certainly quite high relatively speaking. I will not be surpriseful when Alex becomes the number one, even though it might never happen.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Dr John Carlson

Hatfield

Registered User
Jan 27, 2007
1,101
1,092
My favorite current stat for Ovi is that he has 116 game winning goals in 1181 games. Meaning around 10% of the time you play Ovi, he's going to have the game winning goal in that contest.

I was just looking at all-time leaders in GWG, it’s crazy to see how far down the list Gretzky (20th) and Lemieux (45th) are. Is this just a refection of the high GPG during their careers? Because many of their lesser contemporaries are as good or higher on the list...
 

HurricaneFanatic

Registered User
Jan 16, 2020
694
551
I was just looking at all-time leaders in GWG, it’s crazy to see how far down the list Gretzky (20th) and Lemieux (45th) are. Is this just a refection of the high GPG during their careers? Because many of their lesser contemporaries are as good or higher on the list...
Gretzkys dominate teams were always many goals ahead ;)
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hatfield

MadLuke

Registered User
Jan 18, 2011
9,409
5,066
I was just looking at all-time leaders in GWG, it’s crazy to see how far down the list Gretzky (20th) and Lemieux (45th) are. Is this just a refection of the high GPG during their careers? Because many of their lesser contemporaries are as good or higher on the list...

I think it is because when you look at the playoff GWG Gretzky is right there at number one with Hull:
NHL Playoffs All-Time Game-Winning Goals Leaders

It is an incredibly random and noisy stats, just playing in a no tie league will help it a lot.
 

Lyons71

Registered User
Jun 27, 2003
4,899
276
Fullerton, CA
Visit site
I think he can, but won’t. I think he will slow down and start wanting to spend more time with his family as he ages, rather than continue to play limited minutes later into his career.
That’s my baseless opinion. I say he hits 850.
He’s t greatest goal scorer ever IMO. Been a treat to watch his career so far.
 

HurricaneFanatic

Registered User
Jan 16, 2020
694
551
I think he can, but won’t. I think he will slow down and start wanting to spend more time with his family as he ages, rather than continue to play limited minutes later into his career.
That’s my baseless opinion. I say he hits 850.
He’s t greatest goal scorer ever IMO. Been a treat to watch his career so far.
If he gets to 850, he's not stopping
 

jalidi

Registered User
Apr 5, 2012
61
56
He's already stated that he's going to play four, "maybe five years" and if he plays that long, scoring over the next 400 games at a 0.5 GPG rate, scoring 200 goals, he's going to break the record.

He won't just stop at 800 or 850, he's going for 900. His teammates are going to feed him, and he'll shoot and shoot and shoot, and he'll get there eventually if his health holds up.

He's has an outside chance of breaking the professional goals record as well. Right now (after putting in two more tonight) he stands at 723 regular season+69 playoffs for a total of 792 scored in the NHL.

He'll play probably another 70 playoff games in the next five years (assuming the Capitals go to Game 7s but never get out of the second round again). He's been scoring at a 0.5 GPG rate, potentially giving him 35 for a total of 1027.

That'll pass Wayne's 1016 goals with NHL playoffs and regular season combined, though not his 1072 with WHA included (pipping Gordie Howe's 1071), but Ovechkin should come very close to that one, too.

When all's said and done, because of his insane durability, I'm giving him a 75% chance of passing Wayne Gretzky's regular season goal mark and also becoming professional hockey's third 1000 goal player.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->