Prospect Info: Way Too Early Devils-Centric Mock Draft For February

[Nubmer6]

Agreed. My point about the TDL was to coincide with yours, above, where we are likely to add one or more picks between R1 and R4 after flipping another player or two by then.

Ya. I think the TDL is the time to sell, and the draft is the time to buy.

edit:
And post-draft is time to go cap dump bargain hunting.

 

[StevenToddIves]

With Shero and Hynes gone now, do you see the Devils still valuing speed the way they have been doing the past 5 years?

I'm not sure, but I hope so. The problem with Hynes is that he was a perilous combination of stubborn and "know-it-all". He wanted fast players but then wanted those players to play a slow, methodical game. He lost third period lead after third period lead by overplaying an AHL-caliber checking line of Rooney-Hayden-Whomever and benching Devils who would force the opposition to actually worry about playing defense themselves. He would scratch big-time talents like Gusev and Bratt for the smallest of mistakes and allow his favorites to make mistake after mistake with no accountability which resulted in loss of ice time. At the end, Hynes was a disaster.

Speed is a tremendous asset in today's NHL. There are several criteria which should be used in evaluating prospects for the draft, but to me speed is one of the most important. That being said, the acquisition of Nolan Foote was tremendous, and while he is an above-average skater, speed is far from his foremost asset.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Yup, that’s why I’d actually prefer we use all 3 1sts if we don’t get more picks. With 4-5 1sts then it definitely make sense to start trading but walking away with less than three high end prospects is counter to the point of a rebuild. You have extra swings to make sure you get at least one hit.

The Devils would have to really go off the board to miss with their top pick. The top kids in 2020 are an extremely strong group. Lafreniere and Byfield are obviously franchise players, but Stutzle, Drysdale, Rossi, Raymond and Holtz are all impact talents, as well. There are a few questions about Perfetti and Askarov, but obviously those two are high-level talents with tremendous upside.

From picks 10 through 20 there is (of course) less certainty, but there are a few potential game breakers in the group (Mysak, Quinn, Amirov, etc) as well as high-floor players who will look very good on a 2nd line or 2nd D pairing (Lundell, Sanderson, Schneider, Zary, Mercer, etc).

Certainly, the Devils scouts have a great deal of work to do. A good 2020 draft would be instrumental in solidifying the Devils organizational future.

 

[Emperoreddy]

I sort of alluded to it in another thread, but both picks sliding would only happen if Vancouver and Arizona collapse the rest of the way, and then we'd have both of their picks unprotected next season. It would be annoying to have to wait another year, but there's a decent chance at least one of them would collapse San Jose style, and then we'd be sitting very pretty.

Also Arizona has to collapse AND win the lotto. They only top-3 protected that pick.

But as you said the odds of them both missing is nearly non-existent.

 

[My3Sons]

The Devils would have to really go off the board to miss with their top pick. The top kids in 2020 are an extremely strong group. Lafreniere and Byfield are obviously franchise players, but Stutzle, Drysdale, Rossi, Raymond and Holtz are all impact talents, as well. There are a few questions about Perfetti and Askarov, but obviously those two are high-level talents with tremendous upside.

From picks 10 through 20 there is (of course) less certainty, but there are a few potential game breakers in the group (Mysak, Quinn, Amirov, etc) as well as high-floor players who will look very good on a 2nd line or 2nd D pairing (Lundell, Sanderson, Schneider, Zary, Mercer, etc).

Certainly, the Devils scouts have a great deal of work to do. A good 2020 draft would be instrumental in solidifying the Devils organizational future.

NJ has three picks in round one already with possibly another one on the way and fans like me who count on you to do all the homework for us and it’s the NJ scouts that have a lot of work to do? Way to deflect there. Now get busy those shift by shift videos aren’t going to watch themselves.

 

[TBF1972]

If LaFreniere is not available (meaning we don't get 1st overall) I would take Askarov. I am not big into russian prospects but this kid I will make an exception for. He has great potential. No player in the team is more important or has more of an impact than the goalie. I'm not sold on Blackwood as the guy who can steal games for us when it counts.

It's not Askarov or Blackwood, it's Blackwood and Askarov. Most goalies take 4-5 years to even break into the league. Than you can introduce him to the NHL as Blackwood's backup for a season or two. If he shows enough promise you can run a platoon with both for two seasons. Than Blackwood would be between 29 and 31 years old with lots of NHL mileage already. It wouldn't hurt to have the successor ready by then.

 

[FooteBahl]

I know this thread is for this years draft, but does anyone know what draft range Luke Hughes will be in next year? Is he a lottery-level pick, first rounder or below?

 

[ninetyeight]

I know this thread is for this years draft, but does anyone know what draft range Luke Hughes will be in next year? Is he a lottery-level pick, first rounder or below?

Right now he's top5 for sure, maybe even top3. Top defensemen among Clarke. But a lot can still change, I think his last name sure helps with the rankings and hype.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

I know this thread is for this years draft, but does anyone know what draft range Luke Hughes will be in next year? Is he a lottery-level pick, first rounder or below?

He is largely ranked in the lottery from what ive seen, as high as 2 overall although i dont believe he is as good a prospect as Quinn yet.

 

[FooteBahl]

He is largely ranked in the lottery from what ive seen, as high as 2 overall although i dont believe he is as good a prospect as Quinn yet.

So, you're saying there's a chance to unite two Hughes' brothers since Quinn obviously isn't going anywhere and we may be a lottery team again next year lol

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

So, you're saying there's a chance to unite two Hughes' brothers since Quinn obviously isn't going anywhere and we may be a lottery team again next year lol

if we are in a similar spot next year then yes there is a good chance lol

 

[Blackjack]

if we are in a similar spot next year then yes there is a good chance lol

If we somehow got Luke there's no question we could Niedermayer Quinn over to the Devils when he's a UFA. That would be great.

 

[Blackjack]

Scott Wheeler just did his top 62 for the draft over at the Athletic. You'll need to subscribe if you want to read the write-ups, but here's his top 10 along with a couple other guys we've discussed here.
Wheeler: Midseason ranking for the 2020 NHL Draft's top 62...

1. Alexis Lafreniere — LW, Rimouski Oceanic, 6-foot-1
2. Quinton Byfield — C, Sudbury Wolves, 6-foot-4
3. Lucas Raymond — RW, Frölunda HC, 5-foot-10
4. Alexander Holtz — RW/LW, Djurgårdens IF, 6-foot
5. Marco Rossi — C, Ottawa 67’s, 5-foot-9
6. Tim Stützle — LW, Adler Mannheim, 5-foot-11
7. Cole Perfetti — LW, Saginaw Spirit, 5-foot-10
8. Jamie Drysdale — RHD, Erie Otters, 5-foot-11
9. Anton Lundell — C, HIFK, 6-foot-1
10. Yaroslav Askarov — G, SKA-Neva St. Petersburg, 6-foot-3
...
16. Jack Quinn — C/RW, Ottawa 67’s, 6-foot
...
20. Jan Mysak — LW, HC Litvinov, 6-foot

First off, in his intro he mentioned how strong the top 10 is, and how this is a good year to lose to the lottery. That's a very, very good thing for the Devils since we're only a few points from being 3-4 slots higher in the standings, and could always lose a place or two in the lottery drawing.

Also, he emphasized that this is a pure player ranking, and that he expects Drysdale to go earlier than 8th because he's the only elite defenseman available. He also said he considers Drysdale to be better than Byram was "at the same age".

He has only good things to say about Jack Quinn, don't really understand the #16 ranking, feels like it should be higher.

 

[Call Me Al]

better than byram and ranked 8th talentwise bodes very well for the other forwards. especially if one of them drops to the arizona pick

 

[StevenToddIves]

NJ has three picks in round one already with possibly another one on the way and fans like me who count on you to do all the homework for us and it’s the NJ scouts that have a lot of work to do? Way to deflect there. Now get busy those shift by shift videos aren’t going to watch themselves.

Haha, just what I needed -- a drill sergeant.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I know this thread is for this years draft, but does anyone know what draft range Luke Hughes will be in next year? Is he a lottery-level pick, first rounder or below?

Lottery

 

[StevenToddIves]

Scott Wheeler just did his top 62 for the draft over at the Athletic. You'll need to subscribe if you want to read the write-ups, but here's his top 10 along with a couple other guys we've discussed here.
Wheeler: Midseason ranking for the 2020 NHL Draft's top 62...

1. Alexis Lafreniere — LW, Rimouski Oceanic, 6-foot-1
2. Quinton Byfield — C, Sudbury Wolves, 6-foot-4
3. Lucas Raymond — RW, Frölunda HC, 5-foot-10
4. Alexander Holtz — RW/LW, Djurgårdens IF, 6-foot
5. Marco Rossi — C, Ottawa 67’s, 5-foot-9
6. Tim Stützle — LW, Adler Mannheim, 5-foot-11
7. Cole Perfetti — LW, Saginaw Spirit, 5-foot-10
8. Jamie Drysdale — RHD, Erie Otters, 5-foot-11
9. Anton Lundell — C, HIFK, 6-foot-1
10. Yaroslav Askarov — G, SKA-Neva St. Petersburg, 6-foot-3
...
16. Jack Quinn — C/RW, Ottawa 67’s, 6-foot
...
20. Jan Mysak — LW, HC Litvinov, 6-foot

First off, in his intro he mentioned how strong the top 10 is, and how this is a good year to lose to the lottery. That's a very, very good thing for the Devils since we're only a few points from being 3-4 slots higher in the standings, and could always lose a place or two in the lottery drawing.

Also, he emphasized that this is a pure player ranking, and that he expects Drysdale to go earlier than 8th because he's the only elite defenseman available. He also said he considers Drysdale to be better than Byram was "at the same age".

He has only good things to say about Jack Quinn, don't really understand the #16 ranking, feels like it should be higher.

I enjoy reading Wheeler and Pronman over at the athletic. I disagree with those guys on a good deal, but their research is always comprehensive and they're both terrific writers. They both tend to be specifically tool/performance based, while I place a much higher weight on intangibles like physicality, defensive acumen and compete level. They also both have a propensity (especially Pronman) to down-rank defensemen, while if I have a propensity there, it's precisely the opposite.

Thus, I would say don't think of Drysdale as the 8th best prospect, think of him as the best defensive prospect. If the Devils picked 3rd or 4th and took Drysdale, I would have to say it would be a terrific pick.

As far as the "Jack Quinn" question, I actually have an answer to why a player who Wheeler liked so much would be ranked lower. These guys do pre-season rankings and then several in-season rankings (and Wheeler is a rank-aholic), so they are very cautious at moving players too much, either up or down, as the season goes on. This is why I don't like to do a ranking until the spring -- at the beginning of the year, Wheeler would not have considered Quinn a first-round pick, and neither would I. But because Wheeler actually published his rankings, he's reluctant to move a guy who he didn't consider a first-rounder even into the top 10 range. It would be like admitting a mistake in precisely what he's paid to be an expert in.

As for me? Well, I rarely get paid for this stuff anymore, and I don't rank until I feel my rankings will be responsibly accurate for the people who read me. So I am free to admit I was a freakin' idiot for not really focusing on Jack Quinn's talent -- even after watching a ton of his Ottawa 67's -- until he started scoring a buttload of goals. If you forced me to rank before the season, I'd probably have had Quinn as a 2nd/3rd round tweener. Now, I have him battling Jan Mysak for the final spot in my top 10.

 

[My3Sons]

Haha, just what I needed -- a drill sergeant.

One of us free loaders needs to keep you on point. You think I will have any clue about any of these kids? You think I want to get my info from the main prospect board? That place makes the world of Mad Max seem civilized. If NJ picks Drysdale my impression of him needs to come from you not some yahoo with an axe to grind.

 

[Blackjack]

I enjoy reading Wheeler and Pronman over at the athletic. I disagree with those guys on a good deal, but their research is always comprehensive and they're both terrific writers. They both tend to be specifically tool/performance based, while I place a much higher weight on intangibles like physicality, defensive acumen and compete level. They also both have a propensity (especially Pronman) to down-rank defensemen, while if I have a propensity there, it's precisely the opposite.

Thus, I would say don't think of Drysdale as the 8th best prospect, think of him as the best defensive prospect. If the Devils picked 3rd or 4th and took Drysdale, I would have to say it would be a terrific pick.

As far as the "Jack Quinn" question, I actually have an answer to why a player who Wheeler liked so much would be ranked lower. These guys do pre-season rankings and then several in-season rankings (and Wheeler is a rank-aholic), so they are very cautious at moving players too much, either up or down, as the season goes on. This is why I don't like to do a ranking until the spring -- at the beginning of the year, Wheeler would not have considered Quinn a first-round pick, and neither would I. But because Wheeler actually published his rankings, he's reluctant to move a guy who he didn't consider a first-rounder even into the top 10 range. It would be like admitting a mistake in precisely what he's paid to be an expert in.

As for me? Well, I rarely get paid for this stuff anymore, and I don't rank until I feel my rankings will be responsibly accurate for the people who read me. So I am free to admit I was a freakin' idiot for not really focusing on Jack Quinn's talent -- even after watching a ton of his Ottawa 67's -- until he started scoring a buttload of goals. If you forced me to rank before the season, I'd probably have had Quinn as a 2nd/3rd round tweener. Now, I have him battling Jan Mysak for the final spot in my top 10.

Thanks, great insight. One thing I have to constantly remind myself, as a fan of a team that's played 5 playoff games in 7 years, is how different playoff hockey is than regular season hockey. When the refs swallow their whistles and the intensity ramps up, guys that bring more of the "old school" hockey qualities suddenly become much more valuable. That said, I don't really get the sense that anyone in the (nearly consensus) top 10 is soft or anything like that, but it's a good thing to remember when you have the chance to grab a Case McCarthy in the 4th round.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Scott Wheeler just did his top 62 for the draft over at the Athletic. You'll need to subscribe if you want to read the write-ups, but here's his top 10 along with a couple other guys we've discussed here.
Wheeler: Midseason ranking for the 2020 NHL Draft's top 62...

1. Alexis Lafreniere — LW, Rimouski Oceanic, 6-foot-1
2. Quinton Byfield — C, Sudbury Wolves, 6-foot-4
3. Lucas Raymond — RW, Frölunda HC, 5-foot-10
4. Alexander Holtz — RW/LW, Djurgårdens IF, 6-foot
5. Marco Rossi — C, Ottawa 67’s, 5-foot-9
6. Tim Stützle — LW, Adler Mannheim, 5-foot-11
7. Cole Perfetti — LW, Saginaw Spirit, 5-foot-10
8. Jamie Drysdale — RHD, Erie Otters, 5-foot-11
9. Anton Lundell — C, HIFK, 6-foot-1
10. Yaroslav Askarov — G, SKA-Neva St. Petersburg, 6-foot-3
...
16. Jack Quinn — C/RW, Ottawa 67’s, 6-foot
...
20. Jan Mysak — LW, HC Litvinov, 6-foot

First off, in his intro he mentioned how strong the top 10 is, and how this is a good year to lose to the lottery. That's a very, very good thing for the Devils since we're only a few points from being 3-4 slots higher in the standings, and could always lose a place or two in the lottery drawing.

Also, he emphasized that this is a pure player ranking, and that he expects Drysdale to go earlier than 8th because he's the only elite defenseman available. He also said he considers Drysdale to be better than Byram was "at the same age".

He has only good things to say about Jack Quinn, don't really understand the #16 ranking, feels like it should be higher.

Inspired by your post, I just decided to check back on the final 2019 rankings of Pronman and Wheeler (both of whom I have the utmost regard for) vs. myself.

Pronman
1 Hughes
2 Kakko
3 Turcotte
4 Byram
5 Caufield
6 Zegras
7 Cozens
8 Boldy
9 Broberg
10 Dach
11 Newhook
12 Podkolzin
Abnormally high rank: Puistola #19
Abnormally low rank: Foote #80

Wheeler
1 Hughes
2 Kakko
3 Turcotte
4 Cozens
5 Byram
6 Krebs
7 Boldy
8 Dach
9 York
10 Caufield
11 Newhook
12 Zegras
Abnormally high rank: Honka #20
Abnormally low rank: Beecher #98

Ives
1 Hughes
2 Kakko
3 Byram
4 Turcotte
5 Zegras
6 Krebs
7 Cozens
8 Dach
9 Boldy
10 Caufield
11 Podkolzin
12 Seider
Abnormally high rank: Rees #19
Abnormally low rank: Broberg #46

Looking back, my biggest regret is that I had Boldy at #9 and Newhook at #13 -- if I could flip flop those two, I think I'd have had the strongest rankings of the three of us, especially considering I was the only dude of the three of us who had the guts to rank Seider as a first-round pick, much less knocking on the door of the top 10. I was one of the few analysts who had both Nick Robertson (27) and Nils Hoglander (28) both as first-rounders, but I kicked myself a few times watching the WJC for not ranking this pair even higher. Pronman's rankings were, for the most part, quite good. One year in, Wheeler's list looks like the most inaccurate of the three -- I just listed out top 12s but he was wildly off up and down his rankings, starting with what you see in York as the #2 D and Zegras out of the top 10 completely (yikes!).

Here's where you can find them all:
Pronman's 2019 NHL Draft Board: Top 107 prospects

Wheeler: Final ranking for the 2019 NHL Draft's top 100...

Prospect Info: - 2019 NHL Draft; STI Final Rankings

 

[StevenToddIves]

Thanks, great insight. One thing I have to constantly remind myself, as a fan of a team that's played 5 playoff games in 7 years, is how different playoff hockey is than regular season hockey. When the refs swallow their whistles and the intensity ramps up, guys that bring more of the "old school" hockey qualities suddenly become much more valuable. That said, I don't really get the sense that anyone in the (nearly consensus) top 10 is soft or anything like that, but it's a good thing to remember when you have the chance to grab a Case McCarthy in the 4th round.

You're right about a lack of soft players in the top 10. It's a huge anomaly when you have multiple under-6-foot Fs like Rossi, Raymond, Stutzle in every top 10 and you can't help but notice their toughness, two-way acumen and high compete levels. These are not small forwards, they are huge forwards in smaller bodies. If the Devils got any one of these kids I would be over the moon with happiness.

 

[Bcap88]

The thought of having nico Hughes and possibly Byfield/Stutzle down the middle for the next decade is a great thought

And adding Foote to one of their wings is going to be dangerous

 

[glenwo2]

If Askarov is available, I still wouldn't draft him.

BJ gave us a more recent report on him and if he's as unimpressive as it sounds, I don't want a first-rounder wasted on him.

 

[NJDevils17]

We don’t need Askarov with Blackwood being as good as he has been. Take a flier on a goalie later like we do every year. Eventually, it’ll work.

 

[Nubmer6]

As far as the "Jack Quinn" question, I actually have an answer to why a player who Wheeler liked so much would be ranked lower. These guys do pre-season rankings and then several in-season rankings (and Wheeler is a rank-aholic), so they are very cautious at moving players too much, either up or down, as the season goes on. This is why I don't like to do a ranking until the spring -- at the beginning of the year, Wheeler would not have considered Quinn a first-round pick, and neither would I. But because Wheeler actually published his rankings, he's reluctant to move a guy who he didn't consider a first-rounder even into the top 10 range. It would be like admitting a mistake in precisely what he's paid to be an expert in.

As for me? Well, I rarely get paid for this stuff anymore, and I don't rank until I feel my rankings will be responsibly accurate for the people who read me. So I am free to admit I was a freakin' idiot for not really focusing on Jack Quinn's talent -- even after watching a ton of his Ottawa 67's -- until he started scoring a buttload of goals. If you forced me to rank before the season, I'd probably have had Quinn as a 2nd/3rd round tweener. Now, I have him battling Jan Mysak for the final spot in my top 10.

So... with the possibility of one or both of our added 1st round picks being pushed to the 2021 draft, how does that class currently look? Is it a weaker draft class? Forward heavy again? Rich in defensive prospects? I know you haven't worked on it yet, but what's your gut feel?