Prospect Info: Way Too Early Devils-Centric Mock Draft For February

[StevenToddIves]

So... with the possibility of one or both of our added 1st round picks being pushed to the 2021 draft, how does that class currently look? Is it a weaker draft class? Forward heavy again? Rich in defensive prospects? I know you haven't worked on it yet, but what's your gut feel?

Ok, but don't hold me to this -- I'm not even ready to rank 2020, much less 2021. The front-runner for top overall pick is a Finnish-born center, Aatu Raty. I'd say the two top contenders for the top spot are Canadian defenseman Brandt Clarke of the Barrie Colts and a name you might recognize -- Luke Hughes. 2021 should be the return of the defenseman after a thinnish 2020, with as many as 5 going in the top 10 overall.

While an Arizona pick in 2021 could very likely be in the lottery, I don't see the same for a young and talented Vancouver team. The Canucks have had a ton of injury woes this year and are still a whisker from the top of the Pacific Division.

 

[StevenToddIves]

If Askarov is available, I still wouldn't draft him.

BJ gave us a more recent report on him and if he's as unimpressive as it sounds, I don't want a first-rounder wasted on him.

I'm not going to diminish Askarov's immense potential because of a tough few months, but I will say that I'd rather not use a first round pick on a goaltender. Why? Well, let's look at the top candidates for the major trophies this year, and their draft positions:

Norris:
John Carlson (#27)
Victor Hedman (#2)
Alex Pietrangelo (#4)
Roman Josi (#38)

Hart (MVP)
Leon Draisaitl (#3)
Nathan MacKinnon (#1)
David Pastrnak (#25)
Jack Eichel (#2)

Vezina
Andrei Vasilevskiy (#19)
Connor Hellebuyck (#130)
Ben Bishop (#85)
Tristan Jarry (#44)
Tukka Rask (#21)

Simply put, there's much more uncertainty involving young goaltending prospects than other positions. It's far more possible to draft a stud late or a dud early. I'd be loathe to leave a Jack Quinn or Jan Mysak or Braden Schneider on the board so the Devils could risk one of their two later first-rounders on a netminder with this in mind.

 

[Nubmer6]

Ok, but don't hold me to this -- I'm not even ready to rank 2020, much less 2021. The front-runner for top overall pick is a Finnish-born center, Aatu Raty. I'd say the two top contenders for the top spot are Canadian defenseman Brandt Clarke of the Barrie Colts and a name you might recognize -- Luke Hughes. 2021 should be the return of the defenseman after a thinnish 2020, with as many as 5 going in the top 10 overall.

While an Arizona pick in 2021 could very likely be in the lottery, I don't see the same for a young and talented Vancouver team. The Canucks have had a ton of injury woes this year and are still a whisker from the top of the Pacific Division.

Ya, I figured you didn't have rankings. I was just wondering if you had a feel of it. I actually did a search and it looks like it may be very defenseman heavy again, but not nearly as deep as this year. Maybe I wouldn't mind having a 1st drop a year (preferably Vancouver's no matter how unlikely it is).

 

[StevenToddIves]

Ya, I figured you didn't have rankings. I was just wondering if you had a feel of it. I actually did a search and it looks like it may be very defenseman heavy again, but not nearly as deep as this year. Maybe I wouldn't mind having a 1st drop a year (preferably Vancouver's no matter how unlikely it is).

I agree in that, if Palmieri were traded to Boston in particular, I would rather have their 2021 first-rounder than 2020. I say this because the Devils already have a trio of first-rounders this year, and Boston is due for a regression -- they are an aging team and are in a cap crunch which will cost them a couple of their important players next year, notably Torrey Krug and Jaroslav Halak.

My Boston trade demand would be:

To Boston:
Kyle Palmieri

To NJ:
David Backes contract ($4.9 million through 2021)
2021 Boston 1st round pick
2020 Boston 2nd round pick
Urho Vaakanainen
John Beecher

If Boston doesn't want to pay the price, no big deal. The Devils have no imperative to move Palmieri and Boston will be unable to get much help at the deadline or re-sign Krug without moving the Backes contract. It is important to emphasize that Palmieri should not be moved unless a team is willing to overpay, as was the case with Coleman.

 

[beekay414]

I agree in that, if Palmieri were traded to Boston in particular, I would rather have their 2021 first-rounder than 2020. I say this because the Devils already have a trio of first-rounders this year, and Boston is due for a regression -- they are an aging team and are in a cap crunch which will cost them a couple of their important players next year, notably Torrey Krug and Jaroslav Halak.

My Boston trade demand would be:

To Boston:
Kyle Palmieri

To NJ:
David Backes contract ($4.9 million through 2021)
2021 Boston 1st round pick
2020 Boston 2nd round pick
Urho Vaakanainen
John Beecher

If Boston doesn't want to pay the price, no big deal. The Devils have no imperative to move Palmieri and Boston will be unable to get much help at the deadline or re-sign Krug without moving the Backes contract. It is important to emphasize that Palmieri should not be moved unless a team is willing to overpay, as was the case with Coleman.

Do you prefer Beecher to Studnicka?

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I think my heart is set on Rossi if we miss out on the top 2. His production is absurd.

 

[beekay414]

I think my heart is set on Rossi if we miss out on the top 2. His production is absurd.

My heart is set on Drysdale but it was set on Byram last year too. It was set on Ty Smith the year before so it's good to be right once in a while lol.

This is all moot tho. Lafreniere is gonna look great in a Devils sweater.

 

[Pitaya]

If LaFreniere is not available (meaning we don't get 1st overall) I would take Askarov. I am not big into russian prospects but this kid I will make an exception for. He has great potential. No player in the team is more important or has more of an impact than the goalie. I'm not sold on Blackwood as the guy who can steal games for us when it counts.

But Blackwood has stolen about half his wins this year...

 

[beekay414]

We don't need Askarov. Blackwood is a franchise goalie.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

@StevenToddIves how would you feel about the Russian goalie the Canes drafted last year as part of the return for Vatanen? I would really not be tempted to spend a first rounder on Askarov if we didn’t have to.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Do you prefer Beecher to Studnicka?

No, right now I would rank Studnicka as the Bruins' best prospect. Studnicka has the offensive skill to be a very adept 2C in the NHL, and the defensive acumen to play a strong 3C role. He's an asset on the PP with his skating and vision, and he's terrific on the PK, as well. I think it would take a lot to pry this kid from the Bruins, but as I've said, if they want to get a first-line gamer like Palmieri and dump the Backes contract in one fell swoop, they'd better be willing to pay a high price.

The reason I'm honing in Beecher is twofold. First, he offers a rare combination of speed and power which is unmatched in the Devils' prospect pipeline. He's a huge kid who loves to throw his powerful body around, and he can absolutely fly. While the Devils have a player with a similar combination in Miles Wood, Beecher has the ability to play either C or LW and far more defensive acumen than Wood had at the same point in his development (Beecher is 19). Secondly, Beecher was teammates with Jack Hughes at the US-NTDP last year, and though they weren't regular line mates, they enjoy a familiarity with each other which could benefit the development of both.

 

[StevenToddIves]

@StevenToddIves how would you feel about the Russian goalie the Canes drafted last year as part of the return for Vatanen? I would really not be tempted to spend a first rounder on Askarov if we didn’t have to.

I'm pretty certain you're referring to Pyotr Kotchetkov. I will say again that I'm not confident in my ability to scout or evaluate young goalies, but I will say that there is no "have to" for the Devils when drafting goaltenders. Mackenzie Blackwood has really looked terrific this year -- his 5x5 save percentage is top 7 in the NHL among starters, and that's playing behind a wretched blueline. I like what the Devils did in the past three drafts, which is taking a flyer on a goalie in the 4th or 5th rounds and hoping it pays dividends a half-decade later.

 

[TBF1972]

First off, in his intro he mentioned how strong the top 10 is, and how this is a good year to lose to the lottery. That's a very, very good thing for the Devils since we're only a few points from being 3-4 slots higher in the standings, and could always lose a place or two in the lottery drawing.

The Devils are really fortunate, that there seems to be no drop off between picks 4-7. Looking at the odds they will most likely pick 6-8 regardless, if they are finishing 4th or 8th to last.

 

[hidek91]

We don't need Askarov. Blackwood is a franchise goalie.

When we drafted Blackwood in 2015, Schneider was the franchise goalie. Times change.

 

[britdevil]

When we drafted Blackwood in 2015, Schneider was the franchise goalie. Times change.

Schneider was 29 when we drafted Blackwood. MBW is only 23. I get your point, but that's not really a comparable situation.

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

I think my heart is set on Rossi if we miss out on the top 2. His production is absurd.

If we miss out on the top #2, I’m going with Stuetzle at #3 and Drysdale at #4.

The rest is up in the air from #5 to #9.

Rossi is a shifty player but I’d rather have a kid like Stuetzle who’s a buzzsaw with elite skills or a Calar Makar type of dman to go alongside someone like Bahl or Misyul.

We’re probably the team that has scouted Rossi the most out of any other team since we have about 4 prospects playing for the 67’s, so if we do take him, I’m assigning Castron thinks he’s a lock to be the player he thinks he will be.

I really like the fact that Paul has 3 1st round picks, so far, to work with. I’ve always wanted us to get a pair of 1st rounders to land a Perry/Getzlaf or Richards/Carter combo, helping us out in a big way in our rebuild.

 

[StevenToddIves]

If we miss out on the top #2, I’m going with Stuetzle at #3 and Drysdale at #4.

The rest is up in the air from #5 to #9.

Rossi is a shifty player but I’d rather have a kid like Stuetzle who’s a buzzsaw with elite skills or a Calar Makar type of dman to go alongside someone like Bahl or Misyul.

We’re probably the team that has scouted Rossi the most out of any other team since we have about 4 prospects playing for the 67’s, so if we do take him, I’m assigning Castron thinks he’s a lock to be the player he thinks he will be.

I really like the fact that Paul has 3 1st round picks, so far, to work with. I’ve always wanted us to get a pair of 1st rounders to land a Perry/Getzlaf or Richards/Carter combo, helping us out in a big way in our rebuild.

Rossi is actually quite comparable to Stutzle. They both are incredibly skilled, dynamic offensive talents with off-the-charts compete levels. Both of them have incredible hands, vision and scoring instincts. I would say that Stutzle gets a solid edge in skating while Rossi is better defensively and a bit feistier.

 

[tr83]

I'm not going to diminish Askarov's immense potential because of a tough few months, but I will say that I'd rather not use a first round pick on a goaltender. Why? Well, let's look at the top candidates for the major trophies this year, and their draft positions:

Norris:
John Carlson (#27)
Victor Hedman (#2)
Alex Pietrangelo (#4)
Roman Josi (#38)

Hart (MVP)
Leon Draisaitl (#3)
Nathan MacKinnon (#1)
David Pastrnak (#25)
Jack Eichel (#2)

Vezina
Andrei Vasilevskiy (#19)
Connor Hellebuyck (#130)
Ben Bishop (#85)
Tristan Jarry (#44)
Tukka Rask (#21)

Simply put, there's much more uncertainty involving young goaltending prospects than other positions. It's far more possible to draft a stud late or a dud early. I'd be loathe to leave a Jack Quinn or Jan Mysak or Braden Schneider on the board so the Devils could risk one of their two later first-rounders on a netminder with this in mind.

I think MBW, a second round pick, has to tools to become a #1 goaltender on an NHL team. He's proving it at such a young age.

I don't even know if you draft a goaltender. I think a decent backup could be had through free agency. The team needs D prospects. I'd draft as many viable prospects as possible. Since they take so long to develop, forwards can be drafted later.

 

[Call Me Al]

even though those kids are studs offensively just having a #1 defenseman will have a much greater impact on the team than another forward, in my opinion

 

[devilsblood]

I'm not going to diminish Askarov's immense potential because of a tough few months, but I will say that I'd rather not use a first round pick on a goaltender. Why? Well, let's look at the top candidates for the major trophies this year, and their draft positions:

Norris:
John Carlson (#27)
Victor Hedman (#2)
Alex Pietrangelo (#4)
Roman Josi (#38)

Hart (MVP)
Leon Draisaitl (#3)
Nathan MacKinnon (#1)
David Pastrnak (#25)
Jack Eichel (#2)

Vezina
Andrei Vasilevskiy (#19)
Connor Hellebuyck (#130)
Ben Bishop (#85)
Tristan Jarry (#44)
Tukka Rask (#21)

Simply put, there's much more uncertainty involving young goaltending prospects than other positions. It's far more possible to draft a stud late or a dud early. I'd be loathe to leave a Jack Quinn or Jan Mysak or Braden Schneider on the board so the Devils could risk one of their two later first-rounders on a netminder with this in mind.

You do have 2 first rounders(as well as a 2nd rounder) in you Vezina race, and given how few goalies are drafted high that's not a bad rate.

If you had a Calder category, I figure the washington goalie(1st rounder) and Blackwood(2nd) would be in that mix.

On the other hand while you can find a goalie in later rounds, the rate of those guys actually panning out is pretty low. For every Hellebuyck how many Bergvins are there?

Shero had drafted a goalie in every draft he was at the helm, his highest pick looks like a legit player. The other guys? Too early to tell I guess, but we are in desperate need for a another goalie at the NHL level, so it certainly hasn't provided short term benefits.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

So... with the possibility of one or both of our added 1st round picks being pushed to the 2021 draft, how does that class currently look? Is it a weaker draft class? Forward heavy again? Rich in defensive prospects? I know you haven't worked on it yet, but what's your gut feel?

The 2021 draft looks a lot stronger for d-men...but it's still very freaking early. A lot could change.

 

[My3Sons]

I think MBW, a second round pick, has to tools to become a #1 goaltender on an NHL team. He's proving it at such a young age.

I don't even know if you draft a goaltender. I think a decent backup could be had through free agency. The team needs D prospects. I'd draft as many viable prospects as possible. Since they take so long to develop, forwards can be drafted later.

I think MBW was the second goalie taken in the 2015 draft. If a team has the ability to draft the second or third rated goalie in a value pick situation (i.e., a good one falls) it’s probably as good a choice as any from a BPA approach. If NJ gets a mid second round pick somehow and the Russian goalie is there I’d say it makes sense if he is rated as a first round talent. It’s complicated and the team needs verifiably everything so ther may not be any wrong answer to who to pick so long as they can see the player making it to the NHL.

 

[Blackjack]

I think MBW was the second goalie taken in the 2015 draft. If a team has the ability to draft the second or third rated goalie in a value pick situation (i.e., a good one falls) it’s probably as good a choice as any from a BPA approach. If NJ gets a mid second round pick somehow and the Russian goalie is there I’d say it makes sense if he is rated as a first round talent. It’s complicated and the team needs verifiably everything so ther may not be any wrong answer to who to pick so long as they can see the player making it to the NHL.

Yeah, I agree. Given that he's been talked about as a top 10 in an era where that simply doesn't happen again, I think a 2nd round pick would be great value.

 

[beekay414]

When we drafted Blackwood in 2015, Schneider was the franchise goalie. Times change.

Fine, I'll amend. We don't need Askarov. Don't take goalies in the 1st.

 

[Lindys Lazy Eye]

I'm sorry but if we are presented with the chance with walking out of this draft with Drysdale/Askarov and one of Quinn/Sanderson you take it and run.

That is presuming we get a conservative draft ranking of 5th overall, 11th overall and 19th overall which very well could be the case.

With how long goalies develop, picking Askarov wouldn't have much impact on Blackwood at all.