Prospect Info: Way Too Early Devils-Centric Mock Draft For February

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FooteBahl

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My heart is set on Drysdale but it was set on Byram last year too. It was set on Ty Smith the year before so it's good to be right once in a while lol.

This is all moot tho. Lafreniere is gonna look great in a Devils sweater.
The league wide butthurt that would follow would be glorious if we won the lottery 3 out of 4 years.
 

Nubmer6

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I'm sorry but if we are presented with the chance with walking out of this draft with Drysdale/Askarov and one of Quinn/Sanderson you take it and run.

That is presuming we get a conservative draft ranking of 5th overall, 11th overall and 19th overall which very well could be the case.

With how long goalies develop, picking Askarov wouldn't have much impact on Blackwood at all.
Figure 4 years to develop and a year or two as a backup, Blackwood would be 29ish when he's ready. If both are as good as we hope, we'd have a nice trade chip.
 

ninetyeight

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I think my heart is set on Rossi if we miss out on the top 2. His production is absurd.

Same here. I actually have him as #2. The only reason I'd put Byfield ahead of him is because people tell me I should, nothing I've seen from him makes me think he'd be better than Rossi. It's mind boggling that some scouts have him as low as #9. I feel he's the Barzal of this draft, and if he drops from top5 he's gonna be a steal.

That said, I think the Devils need a scoring winger (Holtz) or a franchise dman (Drysdale) more than another center.

Also Stützle is someone I'd be really worried to draft, a lot of you are super high on him (like StevenToddIves), but I think he's the riskiest of them all coming from Del. The ice is very big in DEL, even bigger than finnish rinks. And we haven't had many top prospects coming straight from DEL, so it's very hard to put his play and point totals into context.
 

StevenToddIves

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Same here. I actually have him as #2. The only reason I'd put Byfield ahead of him is because people tell me I should, nothing I've seen from him makes me think he'd be better than Rossi. It's mind boggling that some scouts have him as low as #9. I feel he's the Barzal of this draft, and if he drops from top5 he's gonna be a steal.

That said, I think the Devils need a scoring winger (Holtz) or a franchise dman (Drysdale) more than another center.

Also Stützle is someone I'd be really worried to draft, a lot of you are super high on him (like StevenToddIves), but I think he's the riskiest of them all coming from Del. The ice is very big in DEL, even bigger than finnish rinks. And we haven't had many top prospects coming straight from DEL, so it's very hard to put his play and point totals into context.

If I were an NHL GM, I would completely disregard bias based on what league a draft-eligible is playing in. When Stutzle played on the same ice as all the top prospects in the WJC tourney, I can say with some confidence that he was electrifying. The only draft eligible who outplayed Stutzle was Lafreniere. Granted, Byfield and Drysdale had sheltered ice time, while Rossi's Austria did not qualify and Perfetti missed the cut. But the WJC I feel separated Stutzle a bit ahead of Raymond and Holtz -- even though the Swedish Terror Twins actually played quite well. The other fact about Stutzle is that he has excelled at both C and LW.

To me, drafting a center is never a bad idea. Defensemen are defensemen and wingers are wingers, but a center can always be moved to the wing.

I feel in the top 10, a team needs to take the best player. If the Devils brass are choosing between Stutzle, Rossi and Drysdale and determine that Drysdale is the best player, then I'm thrilled with the pick. If the scouting finds them all on an even plane and takes Drysdale because he's a RD, that's cool too. I love Holtz, but taking a winger because he's shoot-first would be a mistake, unless they considered him the best available player. The Devils may have a good shot at two forwards who are lethal scorers with their later picks in the first round -- Jan Mysak and Jack Quinn.
 

ninetyeight

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If I were an NHL GM, I would completely disregard bias based on what league a draft-eligible is playing in.

You can't just disregard the level of play and opponents. Putting up 50 points (or ppg pace) in Del is much easier than doing so in SHL/KHL or even Liiga. Most of the current DEL league stat leaders are AHL rejects who couldn't even produce 0,5ppg in AHL. Everyone looks amazing in highlights if the competition is not on their level.

When Stutzle played on the same ice as all the top prospects in the WJC tourney, I can say with some confidence that he was electrifying..

He looked good, but it's just 5 games. It was also large del sized rink. North American's underestimate how hard it's for europeans to adjust to the smaller rink and increased speed. Kaapo Kakko looked incredible both in WJC and men's WC, but has struggled in NHL.

I don't mean to question your or anyone else's expertise, I'm just saying that for me there's way more question marks in him than the guys coming from CHL, whose level of play and stats we can directly compare to previous draftees.
 
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StevenToddIves

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You can't just disregard the level of play and opponents. Putting up 50 points (or ppg pace) in Del is much easier than doing so in SHL/KHL or even Liiga. Most of the current DEL league stat leaders are AHL rejects who couldn't even produce 0,5ppg in AHL. Everyone looks amazing in highlights if the competition is not on their level.



He looked good, but it's just 5 games. It was also large del sized rink. North American's underestimate how hard it's for europeans to adjust to the smaller rink and increased speed. Kaapo Kakko looked incredible both in WJC and men's WC, but has struggled in NHL.

I don't mean to question your or anyone else's expertise, I'm just saying that for me there's way more question marks in him than the guys coming from CHL, whose level of play and stats we can directly compare to previous draftees.

Of course I understand and respect your opinion, but Stutzle is just electrifying. His skating, vision, hands and compete level are all ridiculous. Though he's certainly of the pass-first mentality he is a terrific finisher -- the same can be said of Rossi, Perfetti and Raymond, however. I'm not saying the Devils should draft Stutzle over any of these guys, I'm just saying that right now he's my #3 in the 2020 draft based on how I perceive his talent and potential, and I don't use the league he played in as a factor in my own personal algorithm.

My rankings have slightly changed, here's what I have in the top 10 now:

1 Lafreniere
2 Byfield
3 Stutzle
4 Drysdale
5 Rossi
6 Raymond
7 Holtz
8 Mysak
9 Perfetti
10 Quinn
 
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devilsblood

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He looked good, but it's just 5 games. It was also large del sized rink. North American's underestimate how hard it's for europeans to adjust to the smaller rink and increased speed. Kaapo Kakko looked incredible both in WJC and men's WC, but has struggled in NHL.

I don't mean to question your or anyone else's expertise, I'm just saying that for me there's way more question marks in him than the guys coming from CHL, whose level of play and stats we can directly compare to previous draftees.
Same goes for Hughes. He did have small rink success as well, but what we saw, specifically in the WC where he was finally matched up "against men" it was on the big rink.

Because of his success there, relatively speaking, I figured his transition would be smoother, but obviously it has been a bit of a struggle in his rookie year.
 
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devilsblood

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I think MBW, a second round pick, has to tools to become a #1 goaltender on an NHL team. He's proving it at such a young age.

I don't even know if you draft a goaltender. I think a decent backup could be had through free agency. The team needs D prospects. I'd draft as many viable prospects as possible. Since they take so long to develop, forwards can be drafted later.

Even if we draft Askarov we would still need a backup option in NJ for next year.

And while I agree we do need high end D-prospects, we do have a bunch of d-prospects, a couple of whom may be as good a prospect as any d-man in this draft outside of Drysdale.


I think MBW was the second goalie taken in the 2015 draft. If a team has the ability to draft the second or third rated goalie in a value pick situation (i.e., a good one falls) it’s probably as good a choice as any from a BPA approach. If NJ gets a mid second round pick somehow and the Russian goalie is there I’d say it makes sense if he is rated as a first round talent. It’s complicated and the team needs verifiably everything so ther may not be any wrong answer to who to pick so long as they can see the player making it to the NHL.

It doesn't sound like Askarov is making it to the 2nd round, I think the question is more, should we consider him with either of our 2 later 1st round picks?

I think he might make more sense if Drysdale is off the board and we go fwd with our first pick. With our later picks it doesn't sound like the d-men that would be available would be as impactful. Like I say above guys like Smith and Bahl might very well be a better prospect then whoever is available at that point so it wouldn't be so need based.

So if you don't love the d-men at that point, and you already have a fwd, and might just take another one a few picks later, Askarov might make the most sense with the middle of our 1st rounders.
 
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Guttersniped

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The Blackwood situation was a bit different because if you don’t count Brodeur’s kid as real prospect (and I don’t) then the last goalies the Devils drafted was Wedgewood (#84) and Clermont (#174) in 2010. Before that there was Jeff Frazee (#38) in 2005.

Shero pushed for Blackwood because of the complete lack of goalie depth (and the Canes grabbed Aho) and he drafted a goalie every year after that. Who knows what the new strategy will be.

I liked Ray’s approach and I’m a bit skittish of taking a goalie in the 1st round. It happens so infrequently that it’s hard to even judge how well teams typically do. You can’t add much earlier drafts for more data because the approach to NHL scouting and drafting has evolved.

I think Steve and others pointed out that top goalies are more often found in later rounds as compared to skaters. There are advantages to top goalies though, if you can get them in the NHL at an earlier age you have time to figure out what have rather than trying to guess if the first good season of an older goalie was fluke.

I’m not to into grabbing this Russian kid unless he drops but I won’t worry about unless it happens. I don’t think they will and if they do it means they love him.
 
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ninetyeight

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My rankings have slightly changed, here's what I have in the top 10 now:

1 Lafreniere
2 Byfield
3 Stutzle
4 Drysdale
5 Rossi
6 Raymond
7 Holtz
8 Mysak
9 Perfetti
10 Quinn

I have Lundell instead of Mysak, but otherwise the same guys in my top10 (slightly different order though). Mysak at #8 is pretty surprising, care to elaborate more on that?
 

SYWTom

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@StevenToddIves slightly random, wondering if you have seen much of Donovan Sebrango from Kitchener.

I asked you last year about Vukojevic and he ended up going to Jersey earlier in the draft then you thought he would go. Sebrango to me is a better prospect of the two, just because of his shot and skating being better. Obviously Vukojevic had the size.

Anyways, any thoughts on Sebrango or even other Kitchener Rangers Declan McDonnell or Reid Valade (smaller feisty forwards)

Thanks for all the postings you do and analysis is always fantastic.
 
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Forge

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The Blackwood situation was a bit different because if you don’t count Brodeur’s kid as real prospect (and I don’t) then the last goalies the Devils drafted was Wedgewood (#84) and Clermont (#174) in 2010. Before that there was Jeff Frazee (#38) in 2005.

Shero pushed for Blackwood because of the complete lack of goalie depth (and the Canes grabbed Aho) and he drafted a goalie every year after that. Who knows what the new strategy will be.

I liked Ray’s approach and I’m a bit skittish of taking a goalie in the 1st round. It happens so infrequently that it’s hard to even judge how well teams typically do. You can’t add much earlier drafts for more data because the approach to NHL scouting and drafting has evolved.

I think Steve and others pointed out that top goalies are more often found in later rounds as compared to skaters. There are advantages to top goalies though, if you can get them in the NHL at an earlier age you have time to figure out what have rather than trying to guess if the first good season of an older goalie was fluke.

I’m not to into grabbing this Russian kid unless he drops but I won’t worry about unless it happens. I don’t think they will and if they do it means they love him.

I'm a fan of just grabbing goalies late every year. When you're out of room here, just draft the overseas guys so they always have a place to play.

I'm also a fan of signing some of the guys who don't have rights signed somewhere, like some young khl goalies.
 
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Devil made me do it

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How many great goalies have we seen picked in the later rounds during the past 30 years?
Brodeur and Price were both 1st rounders. Roy was a mid 2nd rounder. The very elite goalies rarely if ever slip to the later rounds.
 

Guttersniped

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How many great goalies have we seen picked in the later rounds during the past 30 years?
Brodeur and Price were both 1st rounders. Roy was a mid 2nd rounder. The very elite goalies rarely if ever slip to the later rounds.
Plenty? I have no problem with drafting a goalie in the 2nd round, I specifically said I was wary of 1st round selections. Hellebuyck -5th, Lehner -2nd, Anderson - 7th, Binnington -3rd, Gibson - 2nd, Jarry -4th, Bishop -3rd, Kuemper -6th, Holtby-4th, Shesterkin-4th, Bobrovsky-FA, Lundqvist-7th, Renne -8th.

I’m not saying you can’t get great goalies in the 1st round: Vasilevskiy, Price, Rask, Fleury, Samsonov. It’s just that more of the current starters come from outside the 1st round than skaters.

With top offensive forwards, they are mainly 1st rounders, often early ones. Some aren’t: Kucherov -2nd, Marchand -3rd, Panarin -FA, Aho -2nd, Bergeron-2nd. It’s a pretty small group though.

If we were stacked with talent it would make more sense, I think Samsonov was a perfect pick for the Caps. I just don’t believe we should use either of our two highest 1st rounders on a goalie, especially since Askarov is having a somewhat shaky draft year after all the hype.
 

Scooooooooooooot

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How many great goalies have we seen picked in the later rounds during the past 30 years?
Brodeur and Price were both 1st rounders. Roy was a mid 2nd rounder. The very elite goalies rarely if ever slip to the later rounds.

Hank, Rinne, Nabokov, Hasek, Ryan Miller, Khabibulin, Turco, Kiprosoft, Tim Thomas. Quick was a 3rd rounder but not sure if that counts as late, Holtby was as well.
 

TBF1972

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If we were stacked with talent it would make more sense, I think Samsonov was a perfect pick for the Caps. I just don’t believe we should use either of our two highest 1st rounders on a goalie, especially since Askarov is having a somewhat shaky draft year after all the hype.
Recency bias. You can't evaluate NHL prospect purely on, what they have done lately. Blackwood really struggled in the AHL in the 17/18 season and the Devils acquired Läck to relieve him from his duties. Just because Askarov wasn't hot the last few months doesn't mean he can't become an All-Star caliber goaltender in the NHL. I can't evaluate him, but the Devils scouting team hopefully has the ability and if they choose to draft him, I am on board. Looking at the draft history the Devils could certainly use some quality depth at the goaltender position:
2010 3rd Scott Wedgewood
2013 7th Anthony Brodeur
2015 2nd Mackenzie Blackwood
2016 4th Evan Cormier
2017 5th Gilles Senn
2018 5th Akira Schmid
2019 5th Cole Brady

I am not overly confident, that there is an NHL backup in this pipeline.
 

AfroThunder396

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You just have to trust your scouting department, if you're at 12-15 and he's still on the board and Castron says he's the best player available, take him.

If he's as good as people claim then great, we have a killer goalie tandem. Which is never a bad thing. We could flip one of them for a premium.

The key is that you never draft goalies when you need them because the development curve is crazy and the risk is so high. We have no idea what the goalie situation will be like in 3-5 years.
 

Guttersniped

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Recency bias. You can't evaluate NHL prospect purely on, what they have done lately. Blackwood really struggled in the AHL in the 17/18 season and the Devils acquired Läck to relieve him from his duties. Just because Askarov wasn't hot the last few months doesn't mean he can't become an All-Star caliber goaltender in the NHL. I can't evaluate him, but the Devils scouting team hopefully has the ability and if they choose to draft him, I am on board. Looking at the draft history the Devils could certainly use some quality depth at the goaltender position:
2010 3rd Scott Wedgewood
2013 7th Anthony Brodeur
2015 2nd Mackenzie Blackwood
2016 4th Evan Cormier
2017 5th Gilles Senn
2018 5th Akira Schmid
2019 5th Cole Brady

I am not overly confident, that there is an NHL backup in this pipeline.

That’s why you keep drafting goalies. If the team feels like Askarov is too good to pass up and grab him I’ll root for him. I’d love more high end goalie prospects, I just don’t think this is the year for it with three 1sts, zero 2nds and zero 3rds. We aren’t desperate for goalie prospects, Cory was 29 when we drafted MBW while Blackwood will be 23 during the 2020 draft.
 
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TBF1972

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That’s why you keep drafting goalies. If the team feels like Askarov is too good to pass up and grab him I’ll root for him. I’d love more high end goalie prospects, I just don’t think this is the year for it with three 1sts, zero 2nds and zero 3rds. We aren’t desperate for goalie prospects, Cory was 29 when we drafted MBW while Blackwood will be 23 during the 2020 draft.
And Blackwood was drafted at least two to three season late to prolong Cory's career or take over from him. Florida signed Bob and drafted Knight in the same off-season.
 

StevenToddIves

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@StevenToddIves slightly random, wondering if you have seen much of Donovan Sebrango from Kitchener.

I asked you last year about Vukojevic and he ended up going to Jersey earlier in the draft then you thought he would go. Sebrango to me is a better prospect of the two, just because of his shot and skating being better. Obviously Vukojevic had the size.

Anyways, any thoughts on Sebrango or even other Kitchener Rangers Declan McDonnell or Reid Valade (smaller feisty forwards)

Thanks for all the postings you do and analysis is always fantastic.

You're going deep here, I'm guessing you're in the Kitchener area? Every year I try to do a series of "draft sleeper" capsules and Donovan Sebrango was certainly on my short list. He's got good size and I like his feet. I think his most impressive quality is his passing ability -- he's smart with his feeds and almost unconsciously tape-to-tape -- which I think gives him 2PP upside in the NHL. He's solid defensively and not afraid to be physical, and though there's several years of development ahead before he approaches his ceiling as a mid-pairing NHL LD, I think he's likely to hear his name called in the 3rd to 4th round of the NHL draft in June.

I admit I haven't really focused on RW Declan McDonnell in any of my Kitchener Rangers viewings despite my natural propensity to have a bit of bias towards NY/NJ prospects. He seems to have some offensive chops and I can say I liked his chops and compete level, but I haven't heard anything about him except that he could be a kid a team could look at in the 6th/7th rounds.

Reid Valade is certainly a kid I can envision an NHL team using a mid-round pick on. He's a good skater with a nice offensive tool box, showing very intriguing hands and an excellent motor. I like that there's some sand in his game, though not a big RW at 5'10-170 or so, he doesn't back down to bigger defenders and has shown a willingness to go to the dirty areas and mix it up a bit. He's also got a good deal of development ahead of him, but I can envision him blossoming into a mid-6 pro winger with grit and some scoring pop.

A Kitchener Ranger you did not mention could be drafted earlier than any of these guys -- RD Ville Ottavainen. At 6'4, he's simply got the size that makes scouts pay attention, and he's actually got pretty nice offensive ability. His problem is that he is very much a work in progress defensively -- he's got a ton of improvement to go in that area to ever take a regular shift in the NHL, to say the least. But 6'4 kids who can skate and produce from the backline do not exactly grow on trees, so I certainly expect to see some NHL team take a shot on him in the mid-rounds, perhaps as early as the 3rd.
 
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StevenToddIves

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Plenty? I have no problem with drafting a goalie in the 2nd round, I specifically said I was wary of 1st round selections. Hellebuyck -5th, Lehner -2nd, Anderson - 7th, Binnington -3rd, Gibson - 2nd, Jarry -4th, Bishop -3rd, Kuemper -6th, Holtby-4th, Shesterkin-4th, Bobrovsky-FA, Lundqvist-7th, Renne -8th.

I’m not saying you can’t get great goalies in the 1st round: Vasilevskiy, Price, Rask, Fleury, Samsonov. It’s just that more of the current starters come from outside the 1st round than skaters.

With top offensive forwards, they are mainly 1st rounders, often early ones. Some aren’t: Kucherov -2nd, Marchand -3rd, Panarin -FA, Aho -2nd, Bergeron-2nd. It’s a pretty small group though.

If we were stacked with talent it would make more sense, I think Samsonov was a perfect pick for the Caps. I just don’t believe we should use either of our two highest 1st rounders on a goalie, especially since Askarov is having a somewhat shaky draft year after all the hype.

Agreed, completely. If Askarov were still around with the Devils third first-rounder? I think that would be fine. But I can no longer see drafting him inside the top 20.
 
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