OT: Washington Football Team 2020 Season Thread 13: 5th String QB Edition

[tenken00]

Look at Herbert, you don't need a 1st OA for a qb

You don't need a 1OA for a QB, but it can be the quickest shortcut for a bad team.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Look at Herbert, you don't need a 1st OA for a qb

Also that draft pundits frequently get it wrong. Herbert was a really polarizing prospect and most writers gave the Chargers a C/B grade for drafting Herbert where they got him.

 

[TRASHCAT]

Trevor and that d line could win the east

 

[hockeykicker]

I expect there will be more players wanting a trade before the season is done

Well they only have 2 days so they better hurry up lol

 

[Ridley Simon]

Look at Herbert, you don't need a 1st OA for a qb

Mahomes was what, 10th OA? Chiefs traded up for him?

Josh Allen was 7th OA?
Roethlisberger was 11th OA?
Watson was 12th OA?
Rodgers was 24th OA?
Jackson was 31st OA?

Prescott was a 3rd?
Wilson was a 3rd?
Brees was a 2nd?
Brady was a 6th?

Sure, it’s easier to get a good QB at top 2 or 3 OA. But it’s a fallacy that it’s the only way to go.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Tonight is not good news for those hoping Washington would not compete for the division this year. Yikes these teams are awful.

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

Offensive coaches that can coach a young QB through the transition to the NFL are crucial. The Skins have Scott Turner at OC and Ken Zampese at QB coach.

Turner was QB coach in MIN when they drafted Teddy Bridgewater and Zampese was QB coach in Cincy when they drafted Carson Palmer. So both have experience with developing rookie QBs.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Just as we all predicted in preseason, Kyle Allen is the best starting QB in the NFCE.

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

 

[John Price]

curious to see Washington a 3.5 favorite against NYG on Sunday

 

[John Price]

Tonight is not good news for those hoping Washington would not compete for the division this year. Yikes these teams are awful.

just rack up wins

take care of business against trash like NYG and Cincy and Detroit and Dallas

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

just rack up wins

take care of business against trash like NYG and Cincy and Detroit and Dallas

Cinci has looked really good their last three games. They lost by a combined 7 points to the Colts and Browns and just beat a really good Tennessee team. Burrow looks like the real deal and they're playing well so while they're certainly beatable, I'm not sure I'd call them trash.

I thought Washington would go 2-2 in those games and I still think that's the case -- wins vs the LEast teams and losses vs the Lions and Bengals. They are a bad team until proven otherwise.

 

[tenken00]

This is Philly's schedule the rest of the way. I can't believe I'm actually looking this up:

Bye
NY Giants
Cleveland
Seattle
Green Bay
New Orleans
Arizona
Dallas
Washington


Talk about brutal after the Giants. Their path to 6 wins (and likely the division with the tie) is through the NFC East games. Giants/Dallas/us.

Washington schedule

NY Giants
Detroit
Cincinnati
Dallas
Pittsburgh
San Francisco
Seattle
Carolina
Philadelphia

Actually our schedule doesn't seem all too much better. With our getting 6 wins goes through the NFC Least as well. It really does look like that week 17 matchup between us and Philly is the division decider.

Although I can see a case to be made for 7-9, best possible scenario 8-8 and respectability.

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

 

[kicksavedave]

Mahomes was what, 10th OA? Chiefs traded up for him?



Sure, it’s easier to get a good QB at top 2 or 3 OA. But it’s a fallacy that it’s the only way to go.

Well, yes, its easier to get a good QB when you draft earlier, but I did a little research a while back on the exact stats and its striking. I looked at the Pro Bowl vs draft position, for QBs. Obviously, 1AO QBs made the Pro Bowl at the highest rate, I wanna say it was around 60% or so. When you move down in draft order to 2OA and father, the rate of pro bowl selections dropped dramatically. When you get down to the 2nd round it drops to something like 1-2%. Past the 3rd round its in the fractions of a percent.

The point was, for every Tom Brady proving that you can find a HOF or Pro Bowler late in the draft, there are hundreds more utter busts who no one even remembers. At 1OA, for every HOF, there is 1 bust, and 1 pro bowler/non HOFer, so like 2 out of 3 chance of hitting a franchise QB. From 2000 to 2017, there were 8 Pro Bowlers and 3 busts at QB going 1OA. Go back to the 1989 and you get 2 HOF, 1 Pro bowler and 2 busts.

So its not just easier, its by far the most reliable way to make sure you get it right. The odds go down so fast beyond 1OA that its like a lottery scratcher, sure you could win, but you probably won't.

 

[John Price]

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

Alf still getting payed.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Good for Alf Mo! An 8-year career for a 6th round pick out of FAU is a really impressive accomplishment.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Mahomes was what, 10th OA? Chiefs traded up for him?

Josh Allen was 7th OA?
Roethlisberger was 11th OA?
Watson was 12th OA?
Rodgers was 24th OA?
Jackson was 31st OA?

Prescott was a 3rd?
Wilson was a 3rd?
Brees was a 2nd?
Brady was a 6th?

Sure, it’s easier to get a good QB at top 2 or 3 OA. But it’s a fallacy that it’s the only way to go.

Mahomes also sat and developed for a year and then played on a well constructed team.

If we draft some in the first round we are certainly gonna be cramming him into the lineup immediately, where he will be overwhelmed and develop poorly as he tries to just survive and stay afloat, and he'll have no supporting cast...ensuring quick failure and an exit from the league as a broken asset.

What a fun experience Football Team is.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Alf still getting payed.

Did he ever buy a car?

 

[Ridley Simon]

Well, yes, its easier to get a good QB when you draft earlier, but I did a little research a while back on the exact stats and its striking. I looked at the Pro Bowl vs draft position, for QBs. Obviously, 1AO QBs made the Pro Bowl at the highest rate, I wanna say it was around 60% or so. When you move down in draft order to 2OA and father, the rate of pro bowl selections dropped dramatically. When you get down to the 2nd round it drops to something like 1-2%. Past the 3rd round its in the fractions of a percent.

The point was, for every Tom Brady proving that you can find a HOF or Pro Bowler late in the draft, there are hundreds more utter busts who no one even remembers. At 1OA, for every HOF, there is 1 bust, and 1 pro bowler/non HOFer, so like 2 out of 3 chance of hitting a franchise QB. From 2000 to 2017, there were 8 Pro Bowlers and 3 busts at QB going 1OA. Go back to the 1989 and you get 2 HOF, 1 Pro bowler and 2 busts.

So its not just easier, its by far the most reliable way to make sure you get it right. The odds go down so fast beyond 1OA that its like a lottery scratcher, sure you could win, but you probably won't.

Wel, isn’t that true for any position that’s picked 1OA? Obv a 1OA has a better chance to be great than anyone, yes?

it would be curious to understand what the total of 1OA’s that reached the accolades you’d mentioned, vs only the QB’s.

It will be slanted as QB (and RB and TE) are the only true slots that occupy one person as starter. Sure, if OL got down to C vs G vs T then it’s something to add to it. But the rest have multiple slots they can fill (S, CB, LB, DL, WR), so the percentages won’t be accurate.