Friedman: Vegas as Karlsson's biggest suitor?

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

There's no guaranteeing Karlsson will jive well enough in Vegas to make it worth scorching assets like Tuch and Glass away. Tuch has first line upside and Glass is the surest bet to be a top 6 forward in Vegas' pipeline.

If Karlsson comes to Vegas and the fresh start only translates into him being a 50 point, so-so defensively kind of guy (I'm not saying that's his talent cap, I'm saying there's risk of fall off after all he's been through) then Vegas would probably be better off keeping Theodore, Tuch, and Glass. I'm sure together those three could post 60-70 points a year quite easily.

lol you shouldn't be talking about Karlsson if you think he is capable of anything less than 60 points. Too funny. 60 points is worst case scenario for him.

 

[Masch78]

I wouldnt touch that if im Vegas and Erik Karlsson is my favorite player. Just not worth it, Brannstrom is incredible. 15 points in 44 games in SHL as a 18 year old last season. He has true #1D potential.

If Sens add Ryan that should lower the value by alot, he has alot of negative value with that contract...

Wow lots of potential #1 defender in LVK system. I don't see Shea nor Brannström as that. Theo is a fine player, a future top pairing guy maybe. Brannström, we will see.

OTT should demand Glass at least. If LVK don't want to part they have to offer something significant not just something they don't need.

 

[Liver King]

Did Doughty get traded with Brown? I'm on holidays...did I miss something?

and another one...nor did Karlsson get traded with Ryan

and yes, you miss a lot of things as you would also think Doughty + Brown wouldn't return much at all if traded together (to showcase another example of a elite player with a bad contract attached). Which seems laughably silly to me, but hey--it's all opinions after all

 

[AKL]

There's no guaranteeing Karlsson will jive well enough in Vegas to make it worth scorching assets like Tuch and Glass away. Tuch has first line upside and Glass is the surest bet to be a top 6 forward in Vegas' pipeline.

If Karlsson comes to Vegas and the fresh start only translates into him being a 50 point, so-so defensively kind of guy (I'm not saying that's his talent cap, I'm saying there's risk of fall off after all he's been through) then Vegas would probably be better off keeping Theodore, Tuch, and Glass. I'm sure together those three could post 60-70 points a year quite easily.

I’m not going to try to convince you it’s a great idea for Vegas to trade for Karlsson, because I’d have a tough time parting with those pieces as well (trust me, I already had to part with Tuch once). What I will say, is that with a player like Karlsson, the reason you pay the premium for him, is because you don’t have to worry about him meshing well or not, and that he might only put up 50 points.

He WILL put up 60+ and he WILL be one of the leagues best blueliners.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

Cody Glass is untouchable to them.

I mean this one might likely work.

Ottawa:
1st 2019
2nd 2019
Gusev
Suzuki
Eakin
Subban
Conditional 1st and 2nd in 2019 if Karlsson signs extension

Vegas:
Karlsson
Ryan
Anderson

Homerness aside, Winnipeg is a much better destination.

 

[yababy]

and another one...nor did Karlsson get traded with Ryan

and yes, you miss a lot of things as you would also think Doughty + Brown wouldn't return much at all if traded together (to showcase another example of a elite player with a bad contract attached). Which seems laughably silly to me, but hey--it's all opinions after all

Dustin Brown has a lot more value than Bobby Ryan, and Doughty less than Karlsson. Bad comparables

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Vegas just comes into the league and they try and take all the best players we have like I'm happy they had a great season and really shocked me but c'mon now they want Tavares,Karlsson like who else do you want...to me Vegas is just a show and all talk they got cocky and the capitals whooped their asses so no no no

Are you drunk

 

[Howie Hodge]

This is probably what Eklund looks and sounds like every day.

LOL;

Elliott on his worst day can't look as bad as Eklund, who can safely be labeled as looking like a perpetual fool, except that's being unfair to perpetual fools...

 

[Pavlikovsky]

Cody Glass is untouchable to them.

I mean this one might likely work.

Ottawa:
1st 2019
2nd 2019
Gusev (Ottawa don't do Russians, so it's gonna be impossible to get him to come over for Ottawa and his trade value is probably low)
Suzuki
Eakin (Has no value to Ottawa we have Smith and Pageau that do his job for cheaper)
Subban (Probably will not fare well in Ottawa if Anderson can't keep the pucks out of the net so he's not worth much to them)
Conditional 1st and 2nd in 2019 if Karlsson signs extension

Vegas:
Karlsson
Ryan
Anderson

Homerness aside, Winnipeg is a much better destination.

So the only things Ottawa cares about in this are
2019 1st
2019 2nd
Suzuki
Conditional 2020 1st & 2nd

All in all not the worst offer for Karlsson, Ottawa could flip Eakin, Subban and Guzev for some picks.

If Vegas wants to keep Glass, Tuch and Theadore they are going to have to pay a premium just like Ottawa did with the Duchene trade so they could keep all their top prospects.

Brannstrom
Suzuki
Hague
2019 1st
2019 2nd
Conditional 2020 1st (if Karlsson resigns)
2 Conditional 2020 2nd's (if Karlsson resigns, and Ottawa gets the 2 best of the 3 2nds Vegas owns in 2020)

 

[Face Of Bear]

So the only things Ottawa cares about in this are
2019 1st
2019 2nd
Suzuki
Conditional 2020 1st & 2nd

All in all not the worst offer for Karlsson, Ottawa could flip Eakin, Subban and Guzev for some picks.

If Vegas wants to keep Glass, Tuch and Theadore they are going to have to pay a premium just like Ottawa did with the Duchene trade so they could keep all their top prospects.

Brannstrom
Suzuki
Hague
2019 1st
2019 2nd
Conditional 2020 1st (if Karlsson resigns)
2 Conditional 2020 2nd's (if Karlsson resigns, and Ottawa gets the 2 best of the 3 2nds Vegas owns in 2020)

Keep dreaming bud, its not 1990 anymore. People dont give away picks and prospects like candy.

 

[Pavlikovsky]

Keep dreaming bud, its not 1990 anymore. People dont give away picks and prospects like candy.

If they wanna keep all 3 of Tuch, Glass, Theadore something's gotta give.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

Id be livid being a Sens fan and having Ryan included. The return u guys could get for just EK will be insane and will make the future of the Sens be exciting.... But once Ryan is included, it drops significantly. Honestly once EK is gone, may as well just keep Ryan cause unfortuantely the team is going to be awful

Sens need to hit a massive homerun with the EK return

 

[BigCanadian]

People dont give away picks and prospects like candy.

You've clearly not been watching our GM. Pierre Dorion gives away prospects and picks like they are candy... Your turn.

Seriously...

 

[SensFactor]

Id be livid being a Sens fan and having Ryan included. The return u guys could get for just EK will be insane and will make the future of the Sens be exciting.... But once Ryan is included, it drops significantly. Honestly once EK is gone, may as well just keep Ryan cause unfortuantely the team is going to be awful

Sens need to hit a massive homerun with the EK return

Perhaps, but the Sens have a way of surprising many so called pundits after a down season. Including not missing the playoffs two seasons in a row in over 20 years. Sens always have next man up mentality.

 

[Rorschach]

Where's Melker?

 

[SpezDispenser]

Cody Glass is untouchable to them.

Then they don't want him badly enough.

 

[Duncstar]

You've clearly not been watching our GM. Pierre Dorion gives away prospects and picks like they are candy... Your turn.

Seriously...

Our GM did when we were win now. Havent given away much now so I'd hold on that

 

[Vegan Knight]

If they wanna keep all 3 of Tuch, Glass, Theadore something's gotta give.

I don't think Vegas would think about keeping all 3. But all three are prime assets who could very well be productive NHL players for a decade plus so of course they would need to weigh everything.

Theodore is most likely going to be a top pairing D capable of putting up 40-55 points in the next year or two. This playoff run he was remarkable for all but two terrible games against the caps. He's a little younger and will be a lot cheaper than EK for years. He would be hard to give up but Vegas would do it.

Glass looks very likely to be a well-rounded 1C or 2C with the possibility of 50-75 points a year in him in the future. Super young, super cheap for a long time. Also, symbolically, he is the first ever draft pick for the organization. He would also be very difficult to give up but I do believe Vegas would do it in the right circumstances.

Tuch is already a great, young player and is going to get better. 50-60 plus point top line power forward who is also very young and cost controlled for years. I don't know if Vegas wants to give him up at all.

1st and 2nd round picks are 1st and 2nd round picks, extremely valuable, especially for a team just starting out or a team rebuilding. I think Vegas would be willing to give some picks up.

Including Bobby Ryan complicates things. Just because Vegas can do it doesn't mean they want that cap hit. Both sides will have different opinions on how much he brings down the value. Both sides will try to negotiate their side.

But Karlsson needs to be re-signed or give a clear indication he would be willing and ready to do so with Vegas. One year of anybody isn't worth that much.

 

[topshelf15]

I have a feeling if EK is moved its not to LV,way too much attention being given to a rumor from the TDL...Believe this is all just misdirection

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Id be livid being a Sens fan and having Ryan included. The return u guys could get for just EK will be insane and will make the future of the Sens be exciting.... But once Ryan is included, it drops significantly. Honestly once EK is gone, may as well just keep Ryan cause unfortuantely the team is going to be awful

Sens need to hit a massive homerun with the EK return

Yeah we’re still trying to get past that stage of grief.

 

[HanSolo]

Then they don't want him badly enough.

And if that's the case, good. McPhee already gave away too many futures for Tatar. Outside of Glass and Suzuki, Vegas...well I don't want to say they don't have forward prospects. They do. But they're the type of guys that you'd be surprised if they became top 6 forwards.

Suzuki has high boom potential and could be a solid first line player if everything goes right. But he has bust potential based on his play style. His skating and skill look good and it's what you want to see out of a first round forward pick but there's no guarantee it will translate at the NHL level. As it stands in preseason he spent most of his time getting pushed to the perimeter. With Cody Glass the upside is at most a Schiefele type but what he provides Vegas is a near guaranteed top 6 center. The way he plays now he is capable of handling the NHL. His smarts and technique let him play well beyond his years in maturity and poise. In preseason it was fairly obvious that he COULD handle regular NHL time but it would be to his benefit to round out his game in juniors and let Haula handle things. But he will at worst be a solid two way 2C in the NHL. No other prospect in their pool save for maybe Gusev has that kind of guarantee (then the challenge is convincing Gusev to come over).

Then you have Tuch who has proven himself. By every measure he has all the tools to be a star except for developing finish. That doesn't mean he's a bust. It just might mean the difference between an annual 35-40 point guy and a 60-70 point guy. But regardless of what version of player Tuch may become he is the only guy present on the team or system that can replace James Neal. Shipping off picks as part of a package here means no picks for a while to replace him and you have to bank on Gusev leaving Russia and being good enough for Vegas.

Getting rid of Tuch and Glass means shipping off two guaranteed top 6 forwards in a year that you're losing Perron and Neal. And throwing in that 2019 first rounder means Vegas can do nothing to try to replace them with a first or second round pick for a year.

Including Theodore makes sense for both sides. Karlsson is an upgrade for Vegas and Theodore has number one/two OFD potential for Ottawa. And Vegas has Schmidt and Miller on the team already and have Brannstrom and Hague in the system. They can afford to spare Theo if it's for a clear upgrade. But the two most promising young forwards this team has? It puts a lot more strain on the scouting, forces the team to do all it can to get Gusev to join them, and could ultimately leave Vegas and Karlsson with a weaker roster than he had in Ottawa. At that stage, what would be the point? And how do you convince a guy like that to re-sign with a handicapped managerial staff?

Put simply if the deal is Theodore, Tuch, Glass, 2019 first and whatever other picks for Karlsson I'll be furious. It's not that value isn't fair, it's that it's stupid for Vegas in the short term and especially in the long term. Theit only hopes of building a strong team around Karlsson at that point is to fish talent out of the UFA pool and that seems to require stupid contracts just to outbid other teams which almost never pay off.

I'd prefer seeing something along the lines of

Theodore
Suzuki
Hague/Brannstrom (but not both)
2019 first round
2020 second round

Maybe throw in Nikita Gusev

Karlsson
Ryan

And even that is a lion's share that depletes Vegas' depth. If it's not and Ottawa will only move Karlsson if Tuch and Glass are involved I'll be more than happy if McPhee does nothing.

Edit: and before Ottawa fans start jumping down my throat again this is not to suggest Karlsson isn't worth a lot (though if the word is he won't sign in Ottawa, then his value is diminished) and any of the guys I mentioned are so unmovable that Karlsson wouldn't be worth it. Put it this way. Edmonton and NYI have McDavid and Tavares respectively and haven't been able to accomplish jack shit. We cripple our own team to get Karlsson and it would be the same story. Almost guaranteed that even if we managed to re-sign Karlsson we'd be wasting his best years grasping at straws trying to supplement the roster if we got rid of Glass and Tuch. This trade would be downright catastrophic if we mortgaged our future and he didn't re-sign.

 

[Silencio]

Put simply if the deal is Theodore, Tuch, Glass, 2019 first and whatever other picks for Karlsson I'll be furious. It's not that value isn't fair, it's that it's stupid for Vegas in the short term and especially in the long term. Theit only hopes of building a strong team around Karlsson at that point is to fish talent out of the UFA pool and that seems to require stupid contracts just to outbid other teams which almost never pay off.

Fair points. As a Sens fan I'm not sure how thrilled I'd be if Ottawa traded Thomas Chabot, Logan Brown, Brady Tkachuk and a 2019 first round pick (if they had one) for Drew Doughty.

 

[Boxscore]

I sure hope Karlsson goes someplace other than Vegas.

 

[Vegan Knight]

And if that's the case, good. McPhee already gave away too many futures for Tatar. Outside of Glass and Suzuki, Vegas...well I don't want to say they don't have forward prospects. They do. But they're the type of guys that you'd be surprised if they became top 6 forwards.

Suzuki has high boom potential and could be a solid first line player if everything goes right. But he has bust potential based on his play style. His skating and skill look good and it's what you want to see out of a first round forward pick but there's no guarantee it will translate at the NHL level. As it stands in preseason he spent most of his time getting pushed to the perimeter. With Cody Glass the upside is at most a Schiefele type but what he provides Vegas is a near guaranteed top 6 center. The way he plays now he is capable of handling the NHL. His smarts and technique let him play well beyond his years in maturity and poise. In preseason it was fairly obvious that he COULD handle regular NHL time but it would be to his benefit to round out his game in juniors and let Haula handle things. But he will at worst be a solid two way 2C in the NHL. No other prospect in their pool save for maybe Gusev has that kind of guarantee (then the challenge is convincing Gusev to come over).

Then you have Tuch who has proven himself. By every measure he has all the tools to be a star except for developing finish. That doesn't mean he's a bust. It just might mean the difference between an annual 35-40 point guy and a 60-70 point guy. But regardless of what version of player Tuch may become he is the only guy present on the team or system that can replace James Neal. Shipping off picks as part of a package here means no picks for a while to replace him and you have to bank on Gusev leaving Russia and being good enough for Vegas.

Getting rid of Tuch and Glass means shipping off two guaranteed top 6 forwards in a year that you're losing Perron and Neal. And throwing in that 2019 first rounder means Vegas can do nothing to try to replace them with a first or second round pick for a year.

Including Theodore makes sense for both sides. Karlsson is an upgrade for Vegas and Theodore has number one/two OFD potential for Ottawa. And Vegas has Schmidt and Miller on the team already and have Brannstrom and Hague in the system. They can afford to spare Theo if it's for a clear upgrade. But the two most promising young forwards this team has? It puts a lot more strain on the scouting, forces the team to do all it can to get Gusev to join them, and could ultimately leave Vegas and Karlsson with a weaker roster than he had in Ottawa. At that stage, what would be the point? And how do you convince a guy like that to re-sign with a handicapped managerial staff?

Put simply if the deal is Theodore, Tuch, Glass, 2019 first and whatever other picks for Karlsson I'll be furious. It's not that value isn't fair, it's that it's stupid for Vegas in the short term and especially in the long term. Theit only hopes of building a strong team around Karlsson at that point is to fish talent out of the UFA pool and that seems to require stupid contracts just to outbid other teams which almost never pay off.

I'd prefer seeing something along the lines of

Theodore
Suzuki
Hague/Brannstrom (but not both)
2019 first round
2020 second round

Maybe throw in Nikita Gusev

Karlsson
Ryan

And even that is a lion's share that depletes Vegas' depth. If it's not and Ottawa will only move Karlsson if Tuch and Glass are involved I'll be more than happy if McPhee does nothing.

Edit: and before Ottawa fans start jumping down my throat again this is not to suggest Karlsson isn't worth a lot (though if the word is he won't sign in Ottawa, then his value is diminished) and any of the guys I mentioned are so unmovable that Karlsson wouldn't be worth it. Put it this way. Edmonton and NYI have McDavid and Tavares respectively and haven't been able to accomplish jack ****. We cripple our own team to get Karlsson and it would be the same story. Almost guaranteed that even if we managed to re-sign Karlsson we'd be wasting his best years grasping at straws trying to supplement the roster if we got rid of Glass and Tuch. This trade would be downright catastrophic if we mortgaged our future and he didn't re-sign.

No Gusev and no /Brannstrom, in my opinion, and I could see that done. Bobby Ryan with no retention reduces the value. They have to trade him as he seemingly won't re-sign, which reduces the value. He wasn't as good this season after a surgery, still think he will be fine but it reduces the value just a little.

Theo, Suzuki, Hague, 2019 1st, 2020 2nd for EK, Ryan.

If they wanted Glass or nothing, Vegas maybe does; Theo, Glass, 2019 1st, 2020 2nd for EK, Ryan. If Vegas management truly want EK that bad.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

Again, why are the Senators even bothering trying to package Ryan in a Karlsson deal at this point? I know Melnyk's a cheapskate, but he still has to reach the cap floor, which will be very hard to do without Karlsson, Ryan and Duchene, who is presumably getting dealt at some point.