Friedman: Vegas as Karlsson's biggest suitor?

danielpalfredsson

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Aug 14, 2013
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I think it's gonna come down to something like....

Karl (Extension talked over, ready to be signed July 1st)
Ryan

Haula
Theodore
One of Suzuki or Brannstrom or Hague (Not Glass)
2019 VGK 1st
2019 VGK 3rd
2020 VGK 2nd
David Clarkson (Insured, cap dump)

The deal will get done June 30th right down to the wire before Ryan's signing bonus has to be paid. Ottawa is going to want players who can step in now, but also help for the next 3-5 seasons. Hence Haula and Theodore. While I personally don't think Haula is a first line type producer, he had 29 goals/55 points so he could be sold to the Sens season ticket base and fans as a major piece and a player ready to come in and replace Hoffman's production that we lost for Boedker. It also helps that he is locked down at a fantastic salary for the next two seasons. Theodore is a young mid pairing D with top pairing potential.

Vegas will still have two seconds and two thirds in the 2019 draft. They'll have their 1st along with two seconds in 2020.

Dorion would probably try to sell that return like we got a 1st line C, a young superstar D, and then draft picks for Karlsson. Keep in mind, I don't think that's entirely true, it's just how the trade would be sold. The most complicated aspect I can see for Vegas is that Ryan is not reliable due to his injury history, and if they lose both Perron+Neal, losing Haula on top of that means Vegas would have lost 3 of their top forwards and replaced them with an often injured Ryan and a so far under performing Tatar.
 

Hale The Villain

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I think it's gonna come down to something like....

Karl (Extension talked over, ready to be signed July 1st)
Ryan

Haula
Theodore
One of Suzuki or Brannstrom or Hague (Not Glass)
2019 VGK 1st
2019 VGK 3rd
2020 VGK 2nd
David Clarkson (Insured, cap dump)

This is what I'm expecting, except with Eakin instead of Haula.
 

HanSolo

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Apr 7, 2008
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Fair points. As a Sens fan I'm not sure how thrilled I'd be if Ottawa traded Thomas Chabot, Logan Brown, Brady Tkachuk and a 2019 first round pick (if they had one) for Drew Doughty.
The thing is you guys have a deeper prospect pool and in house roster players that could step up with the right guidance.

Unless the reports are wrong, Vegas are losing Perron and Neal next week. Tuch has become more important to the team than ever. If Tatar can finally buy into Gallant's system it won't be too bad but we can count on at least 15 goals and 30 points from the second line out of Tuch (but probably more). Haula has shown that when the chips are down he can't cut it as a 2C and will either become dead weight or will need replacing.. That means, given that we seem to be out on Tavares, Glass' value with the Knights has shot up big time. Assuming for a moment we do trade Glass, next in line is Suzuki. Personally I feel his game is better suited for the wing as centers like Tyler Johnson are rare and that's closer to the style Suzuki plays than someone like Schiefele, Little, Toews, etc. which is more of the mold Glass finds himself in. Glass may not join the team this next coming season but the plan is for him to jump right into the top 6, probably behind Karlsson to start. And one way or another he will be there. I cannot fathom anything short of a career ending injury changing the fact that his floor is a solid 2C. Suzuki may be able to directly replace Glass but he's less of a sure thing.

Past that we have Gusev who needs to be convinced to come to North America after the Shipachyov situation and behind him its a small handful of projects and long shots. Sure thing youth is an absolute premium. Now with Neal and Perron out Vegas, a team with a thin pipeline, now has much thinner forward depth overall.

If McDavid can't make the team around him better as arguably the best player in the league...with respect, Ottawa fans can talk to me until they're blue in the face about how much better Karlsson is than Glass, Tuch, and Theodore combined. It won't matter if Vegas cripples their own team to get him.

If Dorion has to move EK to get something for him before he hits free agency, and Vegas is the best suitor in a deal that requires unloading Ryan's contract so they can keep Glass and Tuch then that's the preferable route for Vegas. I know Ottawa fans don't give two shits about the best case scenario for Vegas and I don't blame them.

Understandably, in making a trade to really kick off a full rebuild they want the most proven/guaranteed assets Vegas has. But Vegas is in probably the weakest position to offset their most guaranteed futures save for Theodore who they have replacements for.

To sort of explain my own proposal that I think is ideal for both sides:

Theodore (it's not like trading Theo isn't some loss for Vegas. Though it's a pure upgrade when getting Karlsson. And they have Brannstrom and Hague. One is a very promising Swedish prospect, albeit undersized. And Hague absolutely smashed in juniors this year, though his footspeed and agility are a concern. The issue with these two is they're unproven and do have some bust potential. Less than others in the system but it's there. What Theodore is now is a very fast and smart defender. He is one of the best puck distributors on the Golden Knights and his defense has come a long way. He's pretty much guaranteed to be good for 30 points a year. Yes that's half of what Karlsson produces in an "off year" but that's not all Ottawa is getting in my proposal and Theo could easily develop into a 50 point guy with how he plays.)

Hague or Brannstrom (this is where the gamble element comes in for any rebuilding team with an asset like this. Brannstrom to me would be a crushing loss. I watched him in person in development camp and was blown away at his speed, vision, tenacity, and natural skill. I also observed Vatanen's development and to me Brannstrom strikes me as a similar player in size and play style. But it's my opinion that Brannstrom has the overall toolkit to become a better player. If size doesn't end up being an issue for him, with him AND Theodore you're looking at two very good offensive defensemen that move the puck well. With Hague his footspeed and agility was a concern to me in prospect camp and from what I heard it was still kind of a problem in juniors. However that can be improved to a passable degree and if it is, he also has a high amount of talent. A duo of Theo and Hague or Brannstrom could be a great get for any team)

Suzuki (I keep saying his playing style is a concern for me but I say this in the sense that it makes sense that he was a mid round pick. He is fast, dynamic, and smart and for my money if his development and adaptation to the NHL game go well he's the kind of guy that can put up 70-80 points from the first line. Basically in my view he has the upside to be better than Glass and anyone on Vegas' first line right now. But the problem is he does shy away from contact and at times tries to be too cute with the puck. I had the same concern with Rakell (in terms of being too creative for his own good). The difference there was Rakell is less afraid of contact generally or is at least better at avoiding it naturally and is stronger at possessing the puck under pressure. Granted that's where Rakell, drafted in 2011 is now. Suzuki's dynamic play style could work to his advantage if he learns how to adapt to defensive pressure in the NHL. But it could work to his disadvantage if it doesn't. In any case I'll get an in person look at Glass, Suzuki, Brannstrom, and Hague Friday so I'll get to see how they progressed (for what it's worth I was more impressed with Brannstrom and Glass than I was with Tuch last summer just as an example of where I'm coming from with all this))

2019 first and other picks (not much to say here other than the first likely won't be a lottery pick but we know that even lower picks can pay off or be used in packages.)

In my biased view, my proposal allows Ottawa to get a lot of value in exchange for getting Ryan's contract off the books. Personally I think it's still a great potential move to juice up Ottawa's rebuild but it does leave Vegas with their biggest guaranteed assets so that their forward core isn't crippled and focused entirely on one line.
 

HanSolo

DJ Crazy Times
Apr 7, 2008
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This is what I'm expecting, except with Eakin instead of Haula.
That would be fine with me. Gets Glass in at the ground level faster. I've been saying all year that I can't wait for young Cody to replace current Cody. Not that Eakin isn't a great penalty killer and he is still good at applying offensive pressure, but he does some really stupid things with the puck at times where he should be shooting or making a pass quicker.
 

Vegan Knight

Registered User
Feb 16, 2018
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I think it's gonna come down to something like....

Karl (Extension talked over, ready to be signed July 1st)
Ryan

Haula
Theodore
One of Suzuki or Brannstrom or Hague (Not Glass)
2019 VGK 1st
2019 VGK 3rd
2020 VGK 2nd
David Clarkson (Insured, cap dump)

The deal will get done June 30th right down to the wire before Ryan's signing bonus has to be paid. Ottawa is going to want players who can step in now, but also help for the next 3-5 seasons. Hence Haula and Theodore. While I personally don't think Haula is a first line type producer, he had 29 goals/55 points so he could be sold to the Sens season ticket base and fans as a major piece and a player ready to come in and replace Hoffman's production that we lost for Boedker. It also helps that he is locked down at a fantastic salary for the next two seasons. Theodore is a young mid pairing D with top pairing potential.

Vegas will still have two seconds and two thirds in the 2019 draft. They'll have their 1st along with two seconds in 2020.

Dorion would probably try to sell that return like we got a 1st line C, a young superstar D, and then draft picks for Karlsson. Keep in mind, I don't think that's entirely true, it's just how the trade would be sold. The most complicated aspect I can see for Vegas is that Ryan is not reliable due to his injury history, and if they lose both Perron+Neal, losing Haula on top of that means Vegas would have lost 3 of their top forwards and replaced them with an often injured Ryan and a so far under performing Tatar.

I actually really like Haula as a player and think he has a good chance of keeping this level of play up if given a proper chance. I think he could be a very good second line forward or a still good 2C.

We needed a center who is better at faceoffs however, since none of ours are, so I could see Vegas doing this and trying to dip into free agency for Stastny or something.

This is actually a very clever proposal. Getting Clarkson's contract would allow Melnyk to get to the cap floor while actually paying 4-5 million below it for a few years, if he so desired.
 

Pastawithsauce

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May 10, 2017
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The inclusion of Ryan obviously keeps the return down a little, but I agree with you that Vegas would have to add to that to make it work and I'm not sure how interested OTT would be in Tatar. I would imagine Theodore, (one of) Suzuki, Brannstrom-Hague and a first with a conditional pick based on re-signing, not playoff success. Possibly a third that turns into a first if Karlsson signs an extension.

The part I disagree on is that Ottawa has better offers. While I realize that they could have better offers if the deal were for Karlsson alone, I think the fact that so few teams would be able (and willing) to take on that Ryan contract really limits the amount of suitors that could realistically make this work. If this is really about getting the best return, I think the Sens need to stop trying to force Bobby Ryan into the deal.

Very true. I’d be wary to move any of the top Vegas picks from last year. Rather deal futures especially if Erik Karlsson is on your team.
 
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DANTHEMAN1967

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Aug 10, 2016
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If Melnyk/Dorion demand that Ryan be part of the Karlsson deal the returns will be very poor.
Any team that really wants Karlsson would see him as the piece that can win them the cup next year.
However, any team that feels they are that close to winning won't want to screw up their ability to try to win it in the following years by having to take on the full value of Ryan's albatross contract.
Outside of Vegas, who haven't had the opportunity to sign bad deals themselves yet, what team could even consider this type of deal?
As Vegas I would offer Brannstrom, a 2020 2nd round pick and a 2019 3rd round pick .
 

Tkachuk27

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Nov 30, 2011
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They wont get that much, take out Tuch or the first. Id imagine Theodore, Glass, 1st gets it done from Ottawa's perspective.

They should ..3 pieces for a player of Karlssons caliber is a non starter IMO
 

bert

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They should ..3 pieces for a player of Karlssons caliber is a non starter IMO
The pieces they are getting are very good, if you are expecting more I think you'll be dissapointed. Look who is making the deal for the sens right now, he has been taken to the cleaners on every trade he has made except the recent one where he flipped picks. Gotta be realistic the sens dont have an NHL quality GM and he is dealing from a position of weakness.
 
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bert

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Glass, Theodore and a 1st is a good haul IMO. Especially because I think that team is primed to crash back down to earth, Karlsson or no Karlsson.

Absolutely dissagree wholeheartedly that Vegas is just going to all of a sudden not be good. They play a modern systems with a modern team that is built to win in this NHL. The opposite of the current sens, Karlsson will fit in flawlessly with the up tempo play. If you really think they are going to come back to earth I question if you watched them at all in the playoffs or regular season. They out play out skate and out chance everyone they play. Thats not the sign of a fluke team, a fluke team is one that has negative goal differential and is consistenly outplayed (see the sens from last season).
 

SpezDispenser

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Aug 15, 2007
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Absolutely dissagree wholeheartedly that Vegas is just going to all of a sudden not be good. They play a modern systems with a modern team that is built to win in this NHL. The opposite of the current sens, Karlsson will fit in flawlessly with the up tempo play. If you really think they are going to come back to earth I question if you watched them at all in the playoffs or regular season. They out play out skate and out chance everyone they play. Thats not the sign of a fluke team, a fluke team is one that has negative goal differential and is consistenly outplayed (see the sens from last season).

There's a LOT of things that went right for them, up tempo system or not. Like Karlsson. Fleury bailed them out along the way, Neal played great hockey, Perron had a career resurgence. Honestly, you expect David Perron - or if he's not back, his replacement to go near a point per game? Or Karlsson to score 40+ goals? Or MAF to deliver his best GAA year in his career again?

We'll quite see.
 

Tkachuk27

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Theodore is an absolute stud its not about the amount of pieces its the quality and thats quality.

Theodore is good but to get a player of Karlssons caliber Vegas will have to pay

1st a prospect and a young stud Dmen isnt enough
 

SpezDispenser

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I'm not saying it's not a good haul but it def needs another piece

I dunno man, I hear what you're saying, but Glass is a top prospect in the league, Theodore has potential top line D written on him and a 1st is a 1st. If you could wring more than that, you'd be my hero, but sadly, this is Ottawa and Dorion we're talking about so my hopes are not up.
 

bert

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There's a LOT of things that went right for them, up tempo system or not. Like Karlsson. Fleury bailed them out along the way, Neal played great hockey, Perron had a career resurgence. Honestly, you expect David Perron - or if he's not back, his replacement to go near a point per game? Or Karlsson to score 40+ goals? Or MAF to deliver his best GAA year in his career again?

We'll quite see.

Perron was a healthy scratch in the playoffs... Sighting him as the reason they were good is not a genuine reflection of why they were successful. No I dont expect Karlsson to score 40 but I do expect him to score 30 and for Tuch to score 10 more goals than he did last year with Tatar moving into Perron's spot. They play great team defense, because they have the puck all the time. They are just like team Canada from the WJC deep, fast, puck moving D that jump into the play all the time while they roll 4 lines and 6 d. Thats the new NHL.
 

danielpalfredsson

youtube dot com /watch?v=CdqMZ_s7Y6k
Aug 14, 2013
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any word ok EK? I haven't heard a peep

There has been very little in the way of developments other than reports that the Senators consider keeping EK without an extension as an option going into the 18-19 season rather than having to either sign or trade Karlsson prior to the season starting. This has been reported by both Garrioch and Lebrun.
 

bert

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Theodore is good but to get a player of Karlssons caliber Vegas will have to pay

1st a prospect and a young stud Dmen isnt enough
Just go take a look at Dorions trades and what UFA players get traded for. History tells us this would be an incredible return for Karlsson unfortunately. I dont dissagree he is a top 5 player but there are other factors at play.
 

Tkachuk27

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Nov 30, 2011
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I dunno man, I hear what you're saying, but Glass is a top prospect in the league, Theodore has potential top line D written on him and a 1st is a 1st. If you could wring more than that, you'd be my hero, but sadly, this is Ottawa and Dorion we're talking about so my hopes are not up.

Thought of Dorion making this trade scaries me
 

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