Confirmed with Link: [VAN/ARI] Garland,OEL(12% retained) for 9th OA,2nd in 22,7th in 23,Beagle,Roussel,Eriksson (Part 2)

[BrilliantBroReferee]

well it's not a double take. I prefer to keep the 9 and let the bad contracts fall off in 9 months, and still do. For example. If we traded the 9th pick for Connor McDavid, would that be a double take even though I said I rather keep the pick. 9th pick for Connor Mcdavid is a good deal.

a year ago it would have looked like this.

1st round pick
2nd round pick
Jake Virtanen
Brandon Sutter

for

Oliver Lawsom Tossom.

today that trade became

1st round pick
2nd round pick
7th round pick
Jay Beagle
Louis Ericsson
Antone Rouselle

for

Oliver Awesome Tossom 12% retained by Arizona
Conor Garland.

If you ask me, 10 out of 10 times I will take the 2nd option.

I did also say OEL's contract can also become another Louis Ericcson contract for us if he struggles down the road.

But you also have Tanev + Toffoli on the team and you make the playoffs in 2021. Tanev + Hughes was money.
The hate for the 3 amigos constracts (all expire this year) is clouding your judgement.
The best option would have been to sign the kids first and wait another year untill those 3 contracts expire. Garland and Dick are not signed yet. We don't know what we get. Doing all these trades with Petey and Hughes having no contracts is a risky move.

 

[Izzy Goodenough]

There is actual jubilation in the Desert as they get out from under a 32M Cap differential.

 

[JanBulisPiggyBack]

Well, I know I’m sold. Incredibly convincing

I too am convinced he is going to win all the Norris trophies

hurray

 

[m9]

Listen at your own peril:

Great to listen to well-spoken people talk about a good organizational plan. Exact opposite of what we have in Vancouver.

 

[m9]

It’s very hard to evaluate this trade because there are so many moving parts. Of course the lazy way is to grab on to some old mantras like “Benning hates draft picks”, or “OEL is a one of the worst defensemen in the league” and use those to support the preferred narrative.

Yes, it does really suck to give up those draft picks and, yes, a major factor in the return was a haunting of serious past mistakes. But once those sunk costs are defined as such, what is the right way to value this trade?

A couple of things can be simplified:

• Call Eriksson, Beagle, Roussel $12M cap space for one year.
• Ignore the retention on OEL and just say his contract is $7.2M for 6 years (basically contract$ Arizona didn’t include in the trade).

So the deal:

To Vancouver:

• OEL at $7.2Mx6
• Garland (unsigned)

To Arizona:

• $12M cap hit for one year
• 9th overall
• 2nd in 2022
• 7th in 2022

So, to simplify as much as possible, what is the net value of OEL at 6x7.2 vs the cap hit of $12M? To answer this, one could make an assessment of what a fair price for OEL is in a flat cap world. This is an individual assessment that will vary widely. For argument sake (having not taken a detailed look at comps or analytics), let’s say OEL at $5M for the remaining 6 years is more in line with good value based on AAV. More is too much. Less is underpaying.

So, the overpayment is $2.2MX 6 or $13.2M over 6 years. Against the $12M cap hit exchanged in the trade, the net overpayment is $1.2M (or $200K/year).

The trade then becomes:

To Vancouver:

• OEL at fair value
• Garland(unsigned)
• $200K/year cap hit for 6 years.

To Arizona:

• 9th overall
• 2nd in 2022
• 7th in 2022

The biggest variable in this type of exercise is determining what fair value is for OEL. I said it at $5Mx6. Others could have it a lot less or a lot more.
But there’s the formula that I’m using to try to assess value in this crazy trade (without getting into a masters level valuation model. For example, $12M for one year is not the same as $12M spread over 6 years).

If you have to stick to 6 years for simplicity, then 4 million x 6 is probably a realistic contract number.. though that would still be a bad contract.

 

[lennor]

Great to listen to well-spoken people talk about a good organizational plan. Exact opposite of what we have in Vancouver.

Like , you know he shoots the puck real good

 

[iceburg]

If you have to stick to 6 years for simplicity, then 4 million x 6 is probably a realistic contract number.. though that would still be a bad contract.

Sure. I would need to dive into the analytics and comps in general to figure out fair value. I wasn't willing to go down that rabbit hole because there are other weaknesses in the analysis that I would have to address. For example, what is the opportunity cost (besides JBs job) of waiting a year until the $12M is off the books and other players are signed. It's arguable that players of Garland's and OEL calibre could have been acquired for that cap space without giving up picks. But then I'd need to write a thesis... I care but not that much

 

[pgj98m3]

I too am convinced he is going to win all the Norris trophies

hurray

New record coming for consectutive Norris trophies. JB is the goat....ooops, I mean GOAT.

 

[m9]

Sure. I would need to dive into the analytics and comps in general to figure out fair value. I wasn't willing to go down that rabbit hole because there are oterh weaknesses in the analysis that I would have to address. For example, what is the opportunity cost (besides JBs job) of waiting a year until the $12M is off the books and otehr players are singed. It's arguable that players of Garland's and OEL calibre could have been acquired for that cap space without giving up picks. But, then I'd need to write a thesis... I care but not that much

Dumping those 3 contracts should have cost the same as what Arizona just received for Andrew Ladd which was a 2/2/3. They could have done that and kept the 9th pick + 12 million in cap space and been in a much better spot today.

 

[iceburg]

Dumping those 3 contracts should have cost the same as what Arizona just received for Andrew Ladd which was a 2/2/3. They could have done that and kept the 9th pick + 12 million in cap space and been in a much better spot today.

coulda shoulda woulda. Hopefully it's clear that I wouldn't have done the trade. I'm trying to make sense of the value that was obtained and given up in the trade with the major weakness of not including opportunity cost in light of all the other potential options, each of which carry their own execution risk that would have had to be factored in.

I really like Conor Garland
I would not have made the trade

Both things are true.

 

[valkynax]

Now that I had some time to think about this...

It's good that we did get rid of three cancerous contracts, and obtaining both Garland and OEL. However, unless OEL's play improves dramatically, his contract will be a real problem down the line. This is definitely a sign that Benning thinks the "rebuild" is over and we're pushing for playoffs - playoff, not cup, just playoff - in order to save his own sorry ass from being torched by angry fans. In my mind, I think we should've not done this trade, kept our pick, write off the next season and use our cap space in the next offseason.

It just feels like a very short-sighted, half-ass move, and a desperate gamble. If OEL does not work out, we're completely f***ed.

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

Also most casuals are slurping up the 'OEL is a top pairing defender!' narrative even though he was demolished as the #3 defender for Arizona last year.

Or, my personal favourite. Top LINE defender. Anyways, I don't much care for advanced stats, but still by my evaluation OEL is a #4 who is only ageing further down the road.

 

[avco]

Could a team like Seattle present Garland an offer sheet that:

he accepts from Seattle or,

he stays put but in doing so makes it harder for Benning to re-sign other current roster players????????????

 

[Pump n Dump]

If the world ends in 2023 then it is a pretty good trade. The problem is we have to sign Brock, Bo and Miller and Motte next year. Jimbo is again thinking only 1 year ahead. We play in a very weak division and we could have made the playoffs anyway if that is the objective. This team is not winning the cup next year. I don't want the team to make it one year and miss the next 1-2 years. That's how you end up in mediocrity.

OEL+Myers = 13,26 mil. Zona could not even retain 30% to make that contract look ok.

Sadly, mediocrity will be an improvement for this team.

 

[SeawaterOnIce]

Had time to sleep on it.

Tried to ration the trade from different vantage points and I couldn't. It's still a moronic trade and probably the worst trade I have witnessed in my lifetime here. The context behind circling back to an aging declining dman two off-seasons in a row is troubling...but watching a GM overpay for the liability even makes it worse. Locking in Myers and OEL to 13.2 mil is just a total killer.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Could a team like Seattle present Garland an offer sheet that:

he accepts from Seattle or,

he stays put but in doing so makes it harder for Benning to re-sign other current roster players????????????

we have 4 decent rfas and $18m of cap and makar just got a $9m aav so we are very very vulnerable to offer sheets right now. if a couple of teams gang up, look out.

 

[CherryToke]

Even if OEL does bounce back, he's not a great fit for this team. It's just a horrible target for a team that has 0 stabilizing shutdown type D

 

[valkynax]

Had time to sleep on it.

Tried to ration the trade from different vantage points and I couldn't. It's still a moronic trade and probably the worst trade I have witnessed in my lifetime here. The context behind circling back to an aging declining dman two off-seasons in a row is troubling...but watching a GM overpay for the liability even makes it worse. Locking in Myers and OEL to 13.2 mil is just a total killer.

I just realized OEL makes more than Victor Hedman before retention.

 

[cc]

Imagine if Benning was able to trade for Erik Karlsson or PK Subban when he wanted to. The Canucks managed to dodge those bullets but those were very realistic possibilities. I see this trade as very comparable to the previous acquisition attempts. How often do trading futures work out for aging, declining assets on absurd long term contacts work out for teams but instead become albatrosses?

 

[bertuzzi2bure]

A lot of guys here complaining that the "rebuild isnt over"... why?

Our forward group is playoff esque now. I think they would be better off with a veteran 3c (like Brassard or something) to provide 3 scoring lines, with Dickinson taking 4c, but maybe that is asking for too much.

The Canucks have 5 forwards who could potentially put up 60+ points this coming season. Hoglander probably 40+. Think of Garland as a recently developed prospect who has started to "get it". If he pulls a JT the Canucks suddenly have the best top 6 in the division by fa, if not already.

Demko is a legit starter.

The Canucks have three #2 defensmen in Hughes, Schmidt and OEL. Yes the d-core could be constructed better, and we still need another dman to play with Hughes, but it is getting there. The hate here for Myers and OEL is a bit much. I think the hate for Myers just kinda stems from an overall hate for Benning and the rest of the team. He really isnt THAT bad. He should be paid 4mil instead of 5.5 or whatever it is but who cares, it is not coming out of your wallet.

Just enjoy it. I think this years team will be good.

 

[BrilliantBroReferee]

we have 4 decent rfas and $18m of cap and makar just got a $9m aav so we are very very vulnerable to offer sheets right now. if a couple of teams gang up, look out.

I still can't understand why he did not sign the wonder kids first and then do the trades.

 

[Hit the post]

Imagine if Benning was able to trade for Erik Karlsson or PK Subban when he wanted to. The Canucks managed to dodge those bullets but those were very realistic possibilities. I see this trade as very comparable to the previous acquisition attempts. How often do trading futures work out for aging, declining assets on absurd long term contacts work out for teams but instead become albatrosses?

You forgotten how hard he went after Lucic? The same turd that had given our then starting goalie Ryan Miller a vicious headshot not that long before? What a great locker room environment that would've been (as Miller responded to that cheapshot by calling Lucic a piece of ****). Lucky for us, there's often a dumber GM than even DimJim (and Lucic signed a big money contract elsewhere). Unlucky for us, Loui Eriksson was his plan B when Lucic signed elsewhere.

As I said many times, DimJim does his most damage when he has cap space to work with.

 

[CherryToke]

I think the hate for Myers just kinda stems from an overall hate for Benning and the rest of the team. He really isnt THAT bad. He should be paid 4mil instead of 5.5 or whatever it is but who cares, it is not coming out of your wallet.

Not coming out of your wallet and the salary cap doesn't exist

 

[cc]

You forgotten how hard he went after Lucic? The same turd that had given our then starting goalie Ryan Miller a vicious headshot not that long before? What a great locker room environment that would've been (as Miller responded to that cheapshot by calling Lucic a piece of ****). Lucky for us, there's often a dumber GM than even DimJim (and Lucic signed a big money contract elsewhere). Unlucky for us, Loui Eriksson was his plan B when Lucic signed elsewhere.

As I said many times, DimJim does his most damage when he has cap space to work with.

On top of this, I've heard him express genuine bafflement over why his aged acquisitions haven't worked out on the team. He is incapable of learning

 

[Dab]

Imagine if Benning was able to trade for Erik Karlsson or PK Subban when he wanted to. The Canucks managed to dodge those bullets but those were very realistic possibilities. I see this trade as very comparable to the previous acquisition attempts. How often do trading futures work out for aging, declining assets on absurd long term contacts work out for teams but instead become albatrosses?

Benning Built Defence:

schmidt- Meyers
OEL- Hughes
Juolevi-Gudbranson
clendenning