Trevor Timmins Discussion (Part V)

[Habs]

I said 4 years ago that if scherbak and Mac bust, Timmins should be gone. And you may be right about kk though it is early. Timmins has been bad for a long time.

Timmins has been put on a pedestal far too long around here.

 

[BLONG7]

Back to Timmins.................

He's done some good, some real good, some bad, some real bad................it sure seems that he is due for a change of scenery for sure. He has been with the Habs since, around 2003 and it might be time, or fire MB and let him take over the entire team, and get a new guy under him to run the amateur side of things. Timmins, might just be able to make a plan, to see us succeed instead of throwing crap at the dart board, and hope for the best.

 

[Scintillating10]

07 was one of our best drafting years in our history. The point is we followed that up with one of the worse 4 year spans you will see. You can add the 07 draft if you wish but are you trying to say this justifies our drafting in the 4 years after that draft? Come on man. It's a dark hole and it greatly affected our ability to support that 07 draft with more impact players. We were forced to try to improve our team with trades and UFA and we all know how that went? No centers after Pleky and holes to fill.

Things looked so good back then. Only to fall apart. Price rookie year in '08. Subban in WJC. Souray with all-star game slapshot. Kovalev, Plekanec, Kostitsyn line. Markov one of best d men in game. We came so close in '06. Will it happen again to this group?

 

[Tanknation]

my patience is running very thin with Timmins, and if we get another bust 3rd overall pick in KK, I would like to see him relieved from his duties asap.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Why do the Habs rank 28th in NHL production from the 08-11 draft years then? Only Gallagher from 4 years of drafting is not good man. Keep trying

They also rank dead last in those 4 years for drafting power, as they had only 4 if their 8 picks in the first two rounds AND they drafted late because they were making the playoffs. Despite all that, they drafted the best player of the 08-15 period, without the luxury of drafting high like in 2012.

The 08-11 period is one of few late picks in the first two rounds.

The 12-15 period is the one that is shameful as they had plenty of picks and drafted high at least one year.

Curious why you don't include 2007 (McDonagh, Subban, Pacioretty, Weber)? Why start with 2008 (no 1st round pick)?

Because that's what cherry picking is

From 2008 to 2011, Brendant Gallaguer is the only Habs draft pick to be an impact NHLer. It's sad and has certainly been discussed here often. Since then, it's been better with the exception of 2014 so they deserve some credit, including drafting Poehling in 2017. He'll be very good soon. Fleury was quite a steal at 87th overall.

Who did we draft between 12-15 who was so great, beside 3OV pick Galchenyuk?

 

[Habs Halifax]

Things looked so good back then. Only to fall apart. Price rookie year in '08. Subban in WJC. Souray with all-star game slapshot. Kovalev, Plekanec, Kostitsyn line. Markov one of best d men in game. We came so close in '06. Will it happen again to this group?

We will only know how good this group is with the kids added to them in a few seasons IMO. For now, enjoy the show

 

[Habs Halifax]

They also rank dead last in those 4 years for drafting power, as they had only 4 if their 8 picks in the first two rounds AND they drafted late because they were making the playoffs. Despite all that, they drafted the best player of the 08-15 period, without the luxury of drafting high like in 2012.

The 08-11 period is one of few late picks in the first two rounds.

The 12-15 period is the one that is shameful as they had plenty of picks and drafted high at least one year.

08-11: I have their drafting power ranked 27th and the NHL production ranking 28th. We agree on that. Yeah, we got Gallagher which was one really good pick. Still not that good for 4 years and both Tinordi and Beaulieu busting was not cool but yeah, the drafting power = results in this span. Nothing to brag about for sure!

12-15: I had their drafting power ranked 13th and the NHL production ranking 27th. The 12 and 13 drafts being major disappointments based on drafting power. 12/13 = 17/18 in terms of drafting power. Doubt that ends up the same. Willing to be on that.

16-19: Drafting power ranked 10th and NHL production so far ranks 7th but it's real early.

I'm looking at trends (not just with the Habs) and you can see how we have turned the corner (Giving Timmins extra darts is the key!). Will be interesting how the actual results end up with 16+ draft picks. Haven't factored in goalies yet but I will next summer. Posted this before and I'll post again. The results and formula makes sense to most who feel who are the best drafting teams. Caps are the best drafting team from 08-15 IMO.

 

[calder candidate]

08-11: I have their drafting power ranked 27th and the NHL production ranking 28th. We agree on that. Yeah, we got Gallagher which was one really good pick. Still not that good for 4 years and both Tinordi and Beaulieu busting was not cool but yeah, the drafting power = results in this span. Nothing to brag about for sure!

12-15: I had their drafting power ranked 13th and the NHL production ranking 27th. The 12 and 13 drafts being major disappointments based on drafting power. 12/13 = 17/18 in terms of drafting power. Doubt that ends up the same. Willing to be on that.

16-19: Drafting power ranked 10th and NHL production so far ranks 7th but it's real early.

I'm looking at trends (not just with the Habs) and you can see how we have turned the corner (Giving Timmins extra darts is the key!). Will be interesting how the actual results end up with 16+ draft picks. Haven't factored in goalies yet but I will next summer. Posted this before and I'll post again. The results and formula makes sense to most who feel who are the best drafting teams. Caps are the best drafting team from 08-15 IMO.

I had done something similar a few years ago but usuing the draft value chart, then reranking player in each draft based on formula that accounted position, pts, game played, then re-applied the same value chart.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I had done something similar a few years ago but usuing the draft value chart, then reranking player in each draft based on formula that accounted position, pts, game played, then re-applied the same value chart.

I've been playing around with it off and on for a while now and it's annoying I don't have live stat tracking ability. So I made the decision to only do it in the summer between seasons now.

Don't have goalies factored in yet and It's also don't have trades (post draft) factored in. It's strictly drafting results diluted by draft power position. If you have top 10 picks and do not hit (Oilers), you will be penalized. If you hit without many top 10 picks and in the 2nd or 3rd rounds and beyond, you will be rewarded.

The neat thing about this is it's a formula/rules applied equally to all teams in the same time frame so you get to see how your team ranks in various categories. Change the formula, and it's still equally applied fairly to all teams. Limited bias but my draft pick hit value has a bit of opinion but I choose to widen the category to avoid player value arguments (top 6F vs top 9F for example). The value difference between a top 6F and top 9F is not ignored either cause the extra points they generate is factored in another part in the formula.

I have every team broken out like this (see below). The format is getting closer to what I want so it makes it easier to update but I still got a few other ideas to factor in. Just takes a lot of time. Showed the Caps and Habs for example. The other sheet in the post you replied to is tied to each team with excel formulas. Check out the thread that was created on the main boards.. post 60 has each team. Let me know if you disagree with any player ratings.

Best Drafting Teams in the NHL

 

[Habs Halifax]

Timmins has been put on a pedestal far too long around here.

More darts you give him, the better he does. Exceptions to the rule but the exception is not the rule. Put on a pedestal? Nah, I don't think so.

12/13 drafts are a huge disappointment though in terms of draft power. Do you think the 17/18 drafts end up the same? I think that is a darn good debate. I say the 17/18 drafts are better based on player trends after the draft but I can't predict the future either

 

[Whitesnake]

More darts you give him, the better he does. Exceptions to the rule but the exception is not the rule. Put on a pedestal? Nah, I don't think so.

12/13 drafts are a huge disappointment though in terms of draft power. Do you think the 17/18 drafts end up the same? I think that is a darn good debate. I say the 17/18 drafts are better based on player trends after the draft but I can't predict the future either

It has to be for everybody. What separates a great head scout and scouting group is to more with less. Or to do better than others you are competing with. Timmins hasn't done that. But we will see what 17, 18 and 19 will bring.

 

[Habs]

More darts you give him, the better he does. Exceptions to the rule but the exception is not the rule. Put on a pedestal? Nah, I don't think so.

12/13 drafts are a huge disappointment though in terms of draft power. Do you think the 17/18 drafts end up the same? I think that is a darn good debate. I say the 17/18 drafts are better based on player trends after the draft but I can't predict the future either

I'm not sure about the 18 draft. Will we get some serviceable players out of it? Possibly. Will we look back and agree we took Kotkaniemi too high instead of the PBA? More likely. However the 2017 draft may give us 4 regulars with Fleury, Phoehling , Brook and Primeau, probably the best draft we have had since numbnuts has been here.

 

[Habs Halifax]

It has to be for everybody. What separates a great head scout and scouting group is to more with less. Or to do better than others you are competing with. Timmins hasn't done that. But we will see what 17, 18 and 19 will bring.

Depends on the span of years you want to look at. I think the 08-11 years were not enough darts and draft position was bad. When we talk about the 12-15 years, that's where under performed according to draft power.

The critical part is he has seemed to recover in the 16-19 drafts but it's early. If those picks disappoint, then yeah, his ass in really on the line.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I'm not sure about the 18 draft. Will we get some serviceable players out of it? Possibly. Will we look back and agree we took Kotkaniemi too high instead of the PBA? More likely. However the 2017 draft may give us 4 regulars with Fleury, Phoehling , Brook and Primeau, probably the best draft we have had since numbnuts has been here.

It's a very good debate between 12/13 vs 17/18. Draft power is almost the same. I do think the overall trends after draft is better with the 17 and 18 drafts.

Kotkaniemi was not a far reach IMO. He was ranked 5-10 range and I feel the 3-10 range is minuscule when you start talking BPA and it don't exist unless you use hindsight evaluation. Kotkaniemi was ranked 15-30 range at the beginning of the year vs Zadina who was top 5 all year. What does that mean? Nothing really cause the rankings before the draft mean more. You can have your own player you were high on and your own personal rankings I guess so you are entitled to use the BPA according to your own evaluations. Most believed Zadina was BPA but popularity don't mean anything.

 

[Habs]

It's a very good debate between 12/13 vs 17/18. Draft power is almost the same. I do think the overall trends after draft is better with the 17 and 18 drafts.

Kotkaniemi was not a far reach IMO. He was ranked 5-10 range and I feel the 3-10 range is minuscule when you start talking BPA and it don't exist unless you use hindsight evaluation. Kotkaniemi was ranked 15-30 range at the beginning of the year vs Zadina who was top 5 all year. What does that mean? Nothing really cause the rankings before the draft mean more. You can have your own player you were high on and your own personal rankings I guess so you are entitled to use the BPA according to your own evaluations. Most believed Zadina was BPA but popularity don't mean anything.

Tkachuk was the BPA, at least for a lot of people.

 

[26Mats]

Tkachuk was the BPA, at least for a lot of people.

Not on these boards

 

[Fozz]

Timmins struggles in evaluating talented forwards and that’s always been the case. He had great success with D’s and G’s but his record with forwards is putrid.

 

[Habs]

Not on these boards

well these aren't the only hockey forums. There was a ton of debate about Zadina, JK, Wahlstrom or Tkachuk .

 

[DAChampion]

Zadina was the non-Kotkaniemi player that was most discussed.

 

[26Mats]

well these aren't the only hockey forums. There was a ton of debate about Zadina, JK, Wahlstrom or Tkachuk .

Yes, in fact Timmins and MB seemed most interested in Tkachuk after KK.

I'm just saying, I don't recall a single poster who wanted Tkachuk. Some even swore they'd lose it if we drafted him. "Anyone but Tkachuk" could be heard often.

 

[Habs]

Yes, in fact Timmins and MB seemed most interested in Tkachuk after KK.

I'm just saying, I don't recall a single poster who wanted Tkachuk. Some even swore they'd lose it if we drafted him. "Anyone but Tkachuk" could be heard often.

I heard it here as well, but I was wanting him or Wahlstrom, Zadina seemed like a wildcard with mental issues.

 

[calder candidate]

I've been playing around with it off and on for a while now and it's annoying I don't have live stat tracking ability. So I made the decision to only do it in the summer between seasons now.

Don't have goalies factored in yet and It's also don't have trades (post draft) factored in. It's strictly drafting results diluted by draft power position. If you have top 10 picks and do not hit (Oilers), you will be penalized. If you hit without many top 10 picks and in the 2nd or 3rd rounds and beyond, you will be rewarded.

The neat thing about this is it's a formula/rules applied equally to all teams in the same time frame so you get to see how your team ranks in various categories. Change the formula, and it's still equally applied fairly to all teams. Limited bias but my draft pick hit value has a bit of opinion but I choose to widen the category to avoid player value arguments (top 6F vs top 9F for example). The value difference between a top 6F and top 9F is not ignored either cause the extra points they generate is factored in another part in the formula.

I have every team broken out like this (see below). The format is getting closer to what I want so it makes it easier to update but I still got a few other ideas to factor in. Just takes a lot of time. Showed the Caps and Habs for example. The other sheet in the post you replied to is tied to each team with excel formulas. Check out the thread that was created on the main boards.. post 60 has each team. Let me know if you disagree with any player ratings.

Best Drafting Teams in the NHL

It is very nice but I think some of these range are too large their should be a pretty big difference in value if your drafting 32 or 75 and there’s should be a quite as big from drafting 31 to 32 also you have do you assign a value top9 depth to each player even if there isn’t any bias must be a pretty long process or is it a formula.

 

[BIG GIFS]

What the f***, why are people calling KK a bust when he's the 5th youngest player in the NHL? Some people around here...

 

[ZUKI]

Tkachuk was the BPA, at least for a lot of people.

LoL ! you need to read the 2019 draft threads ; most of the fans were whining and whining every single day , scared that he would be the Bergevin's selection

 

[ZUKI]

What the ****, why are people calling KK a bust when he's the 5th youngest player in the NHL? Some people around here...

yes, but he missed 6 games lately because an injury ; so he's a bust