Trevor Timmins Discussion (Part IV)

[DramaticGloveSave]

I’m sure a lot of the people here hated the Poehling pick because they didn’t think it was a home run swing..: and after all that it might be a home run after all.

 

[Saxon]

For sure, but both have value. I think Boldy would fit in perfectly with this group. Big dude with hella sweet hands. Sadly we'd have to wait another year for that game-breaking forward.

I really want the Habs to start taking stupid swings at game-breakers. Reway style. I don't even care if they all bust, I think the quality/quantity of our pool is such that home-runs are possible now.

We should start documenting what players are the home-run type in the 30-250 range from now on, IMO.

I don't care about their "floors" go for the highest ceiling and don't look back.

 

[Mrb1p]

I’m sure a lot of the people here hated the Poehling pick because they didn’t think it was a home run swing..: and after all that it might be a home run after all.

Not sure it's a homerrun, but it's a good pick.

The thing is RIGHT NOW, the prospect pool is so deep and the team is young so we can afford to not go for guys like Poehling or Olofsson or Bitten.

I'm not even talking possible 2C or like possible 1B type like Poehling, I'm talking full-fledged 50 goal scorer 80 points player Gaudreau style. I think a run of a year or two of just straight up slangin' for it like mad could pay. Because really, how else is this team going to acquire THAT talented forward ? UFA, sure... But these guys aren't traded often, unless you can fleece Bowman to get the Breadman.

 

[Redux91]

Not sure it's a homerrun, but it's a good pick.

The thing is RIGHT NOW, the prospect pool is so deep and the team is young so we can afford to not go for guys like Poehling or Olofsson or Bitten.

I'm not even talking possible 2C or like possible 1B type like Poehling, I'm talking full-fledged 50 goal scorer 80 points player Gaudreau style. I think a run of a year or two of just straight up slangin' for it like mad could pay. Because really, how else is this team going to acquire THAT talented forward ? UFA, sure... But these guys aren't traded often, unless you can fleece Bowman to get the Breadman.

But Panarin doesnt play for bowman anym -----oooo i see what you did there.

 

[Habs76]

I'll tell you what is NOT a home-run type.

Adam Samuelsson
Jacob Olofsson
Jacob De La Rose
Connor Crisp
Brett Lernout


Meanwhile
Martin Reway
Jesse Ylonen
Ruslan Ishkakov

Just a few names.

He literally said "there's no such thing as a homerun type" then proceeded to describe a homerun type.

 

[ahmedou]

Point being. Trevor Timmins is the common denominator. And, yes, it's fantastic he's finally had another apparent 'home run' draft. But, there hasn't been anything substantial in the pipes for.. almost a decade? Producing Roughly 15 solid roster players internally since 2005. A handful playing minor roles in other organizations. And, there you go. 2007. The last draft of substance. I just hope he has another big draft this year. Because 3 consecutive years of a solid draft is huge for this club. Solid nucleus to come up the pipeline together.

Make the draft better again with Timmins. Once for all, turn that page of bad picks and busts. Yet the pipeline is not full at the maximum. Gotta fill it out thoroughly.

 

[SOLR]

I'll tell you what is NOT a home-run type.

Adam Samuelsson
Jacob Olofsson
Jacob De La Rose
Connor Crisp
Brett Lernout


Meanwhile
Martin Reway
Jesse Ylonen
Ruslan Ishkakov

Just a few names.

You proved my point if you look at the attributes I stated. There is no homerun type because this is a POST DRAFT analysis. When you draft, you think each of your choices can be a homerun, obviously.

He literally said "there's no such thing as a homerun type" then proceeded to describe a homerun type.

Thanks for the 3rd personing, very honest.

I didn't described a type, I described the attributes that makes people call x players a homerun type. If you don't understand the difference, well, not sure what to say.

 

[Mrb1p]

You proved my point if you look at the attributes I stated. There is no homerun type because this is a POST DRAFT analysis. When you draft, you think each of your choices can be a homerun, obviously.

High upside, high risk. There's clearly players that have higher upside than others but less certainty to them. I don't think that's up for debate.

Do you disagree that some players are drafted to be 3rd liners and others to be superstars?

 

[SOLR]

High upside, high risk. There's clearly players that have higher upside than others but less certainty to them. I don't think that's up for debate.

Do you disagree that some players are drafted to be 3rd liners and others to be superstars?

Yes. The upside is really unknown. They can set expectations all they want (and this is where HF is getting confused), but really, if you are a in competitive situation (in the scout's head), you want to get Luc Robitaille or Brendan Gallagher every single time. Each player type can result into a homerun of sorts. We drafted Gallagher to be a 3rd liner, yet he became a first liner. He's a homerun. His draft projections were wrong.

 

[Mrb1p]

Yes. The upside is really unknown. They can set expectations all they want (and this is where HF is getting confused), but really, if you are a in competitive situation (in the scout's head), you want to get Luc Robitaille or Brendan Gallagher every single time. Each player type can result into a homerun of sorts. We drafted Gallagher to be a 3rd liner, yet he became a first liner. He's a homerun. His draft projections were wrong.

Who says Gally was drafted for 3rd line ?

Thats lazy. Gallagher had a 1.2 PPG in the regular season and a 1.32 PPG in the PO's in his draft year. He also scored 40 goals, on a team with low offensive support. HF gave him a 7.5 score, on their old ranking. That's not third line.

Do you really believe Timmins expected Robitaille out of DLR, Crisp and McCarron ? I understand what you're saying. You want every player to hit the highest potential, but thats just ridiculous to think it's reality, a "ceiling" is something very real.

 

[SOLR]

Who says Gally was drafted for 3rd line ?

Thats lazy. Gallagher had a 1.2 PPG in the regular season and a 1.32 PPG in the PO's in his draft year. He also scored 40 goals, on a team with low offensive support. HF gave him a 7.5 score, on their old ranking. That's not third line.

Do you really believe Timmins expected Robitaille out of DLR, Crisp and McCarron ? I understand what you're saying. You want every player to hit the highest potential, but thats just ridiculous to think it's reality, a "ceiling" is something very real.

I remember Gally being described by most scouts as a great "potential energy line" player.
2011 WJC Preview | DobberHockey – Fantasy NHL Projections and Analysis

Sure, the ceiling for Crisp was what, Probert?
Sure, the ceiling for McCarron was what, Primeau or Young Lucic?

My point is, different ceiling types are equally valuable as a 40 goal scorer.

 

[Mrb1p]

I remember Gally being described by most scouts as a great "potential energy line" player.
2011 WJC Preview | DobberHockey – Fantasy NHL Projections and Analysis

Sure, the ceiling for Crisp was what, Probert?
Sure, the ceiling for McCarron was what, Primeau or Young Lucic?

My point is, different ceiling types are equally valuable as a 40 goal scorer.

What no lol, literally no potential is greater than a 40 goal scorer. Maybe a 60 points D.

 

[Tanknation]

I’m sure a lot of the people here hated the Poehling pick because they didn’t think it was a home run swing..: and after all that it might be a home run after all.

True, but key word here is might be and also may not be and if that is the case then the story continues with Timmy boy

 

[Miller Time]

You proved my point if you look at the attributes I stated. There is no homerun type because this is a POST DRAFT analysis. When you draft, you think each of your choices can be a homerun, obviously.

I don't think that's accurate...

Some prospects get evaluated as having lower ceilings but higher floors, whereas some have huge ceilings & no floor (ie will not play in the NHL unless as top 6 player/offensive producer).

Evaluations can always be wrong, and some outliers can develop offensive talent no one saw, or "safe" bets can still flame out...

But ignoring the semantics of "homerun", gambling on a player that's only likely to make NHL as an impact player or not at all is much different than picking a guy whose got the work ethic, physical tools & commitment to succeed as a depth player

 

[HuGo Sham]

i think part of the issue with gallagher going so low is that the NHL was still trying to figure out if it would transition into smaller player / faster game. teams stayed away from #11 because of the size and maybe skating thing

 

[SOLR]

What no lol, literally no potential is greater than a 40 goal scorer. Maybe a 60 points D.

This is a HFboard statement.

"No potential is greater than a 40 goal scorer"

So do you mean 40g the Gallagher way or 40g the Pacioretty way, or 40g the Kucherov way?

Sorry, but your argument doesn't work, as there is no such thing has parity in role and potential (each player is unique), this is the assumption behind your argument. Each players have different roles and potential. Stamkos and Kucherov are very different roles & players. And you want both to reach their full potential in their unique ways as they can be invaluable in their respective role and provide a multiple of the results.

2 Wayne Gretzky < 1 Gretzky + 1 Messier

A team is a bunch of roles, that when added up the sum is greater than the parts.

THUS, when you draft you want each of your players to have their own particular identities.

So when you draft you want to fill all your roles, and a homerun is when you fill a role in ways that are competitively advantageous. Boston has Marchand, we have Gallagher, they play about the same role, but both these teams have the advantage that nobody else can compete with them for this type of player.

 

[montreal]

With Gallagher as said above that the league at the time didn't trust small players. Gallagher was short, not that fast and his skating needed work if I recall correctly. But he was 2nd on his team in points, 16th in the WHL at 17 since he didn't turn 18 till the season was over. He was 7th in goals and he had a big playoffs with 11 goals, 21 pts in 16 games. The 2 players that scored more goals in the WHL playoffs that year were 19 and 20 year olds.

 

[Adam Michaels]

 

[Vachon23]

I taught he was supposed to haunt Bergevin

 

[Wats]

I taught he was supposed to haunt Bergevin

Well he did end up a wasted 1st round pick that could have been traded for some more help in that 2014 playoff run.

 

[jaffy27]

Probably just draft another Koberstein, or Staum with it. Waste if a pick from the get go.

Wasted picks is the norm....there are 100 Staums in every draft

 

[tazsub3]

Wasted picks is the norm....there are 100 Staums in every draft

and there is 100's and 100's of wasted pick by all teams every year

 

[Le Barron de HF]

I'll admit I was wrong, but I still stand by the opinion that the organization handled him poorly both in terms of development and asset management.

 

[teamfirst]

I'll admit I was wrong, but I still stand by the opinion that the organization handled him poorly both in terms of development and asset management.

In another word, you where wrong but not wrong

Around here if a Habs 1st round draft pick doesnt pan out it's poor assets management and poor development for the rest of the league it's just a bust

 

[Whitesnake]

I taught he was supposed to haunt Bergevin

Best job ever when your good moves are great, and your bad moves are just normal. What haunts the drafting team is that they missed better prospects. No matter what we thought at the time. End result is that it's another 1st round miss. That's just a fact.