Confirmed with Link: Travis Konecny Signs Extension - 6 Years/$33M ($5.5M AAV)

[flyersfan187]

I didn’t see TK signing a six year deal for less then six a season. Nice contract!

 

[Appleyard]

Maybe you should go look at the career trajectory of a hundred players with 3 years under their belt.
Some improve, some flat line, a few peak early and soon regress.
There is simply no guarantee that TK will improve.

Not many.

When I examined career trajectories of 139 fwds who got to 1st line level:

The average player added:

6.5 goals per 82 games between 22 and peak.
14 points per 82 games between 22 and peak.

Of the 139:

Rob Brown
Jimmy Carson
Mike Comrie
Jeff Friesen
Chris Gratton
Martin Havlat
Robert Reichel
Mikael Renberg
Paul Kariya
Mark Recchi
Saku Koivu

Peaked at 22 or earlier. 11/139.

7.9%. And quite a few of those were due to injury...

Konecny is actual almost exactly at the era adjusted age curve over the last two years for a 1st line level career fwd.

21: 22.7 goals, 50.1 points
22: 21.4 goals, 48.9 points

Konecny:

21: 26 goals, 49 points
22: 24 goals, 49 points

The peak for that group was 27:

25.5 goals, 62.4 points

If we go of a normal age curve equated to his current production the odds are that Konecny is a:

~30 goal, ~60 point scorer from age 24 to 31 with no serious injuries.

 

[healthyscratch]

Nope..and neither is Giroux, Coots, Provy and more.

That’s bullshit. He’s signed he should be playing.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I heartily endorse this contract and transaction
View attachment 255019

Great reference.

 

[Tripod]

I’m not sure he should be rewarded with 1st line RW responsibilities because he hasn’t fixed the flaws in his game. I’d like to see him address the underlying issues & become a more complete player. There are a lot of players who would look better next to Couturier. But you can’t always expect to be afforded that luxury.

I personally prefer Voracek on line 1. I like his size & power there. But that’s just my personal preference.

It's not about "rewarding". He already has his contract and is locked in long term. It's about fit and what is best for the team.

TK on the 1st line vs Jake is not a big difference IMO

But Jake has the ability to lead another line into a scoring line, something TK can't do at this point. By having TK on line 1 and Jake on another, the 2 liners COMBINED gets us a better result overall.

But man, it sure is nice to be talking this way all while AV liking JVR Hayes and Lindblom as a line. We finally might have/should have 3 good lines again.

 

[sigma six]

I'm away from my desk for a few hours and now see this? High fives!
I can now resume wearing the TK jersey with pride.

 

[Starat327]

Not many.

When I examined career trajectories of 139 fwds who got to 1st line level:

The average player added:

6.5 goals per 82 games between 22 and peak.
14 points per 82 games between 22 and peak.

Of the 139:

Rob Brown
Jimmy Carson
Mike Comrie
Jeff Friesen
Chris Gratton
Martin Havlat
Robert Reichel
Mikael Renberg
Paul Kariya
Mark Recchi
Saku Koivu

Peaked at 22 or earlier. 11/139.

7.9%. And quite a few of those were due to injury...

Konecny is actual almost exactly at the era adjusted age curve over the last two years for a 1st line level career fwd.

21: 22.7 goals, 50.1 points
22: 21.4 goals, 48.9 points

Konecny:

21: 26 goals, 49 points
22: 24 goals, 49 points

The peak for that group was 27:

25.5 goals, 62.4 points

If we go of a normal age curve equated to his current production the odds are that Konecny is a:

~30 goal, ~60 point scorer from age 24 to 31 with no serious injuries.

This is absolutely rich. Greatly appreciate the information!

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Has there been any studies done (enough data?) to correlate posts hit and increased future scoring?

My hunch is it doesn't mean much (thanks Charlie Conway).

I've never seen anything even attempted, but in addition to the sample size problems, the official stat doesn't count pucks that hit the Goalie first. It's only clean posts. Goalie then Post is a Save.

Is that statistically important? Hell if I know, but I can't rule it out.

 

[Appleyard]

Not many.

When I examined career trajectories of 139 fwds who got to 1st line level:

The average player added:

6.5 goals per 82 games between 22 and peak.
14 points per 82 games between 22 and peak.

Of the 139:

Rob Brown
Jimmy Carson
Mike Comrie
Jeff Friesen
Chris Gratton
Martin Havlat
Robert Reichel
Mikael Renberg
Paul Kariya
Mark Recchi
Saku Koivu

Peaked at 22 or earlier. 11/139.

7.9%. And quite a few of those were due to injury...

Konecny is actual almost exactly at the era adjusted age curve over the last two years for a 1st line level career fwd.

21: 22.7 goals, 50.1 points
22: 21.4 goals, 48.9 points

Konecny:

21: 26 goals, 49 points
22: 24 goals, 49 points

The peak for that group was 27:

25.5 goals, 62.4 points

If we go of a normal age curve equated to his current production the odds are that Konecny is a:

~30 goal, ~60 point scorer from age 24 to 31 with no serious injuries.

Actually I f***ed up... as Konecny was 21 last year, not 22 going off the criteria I used in original study.

Which means:


Rob Brown
Jimmy Carson
Mike Comrie
Jeff Friesen

Are only 4/139 fwds who had peaked at his age. 2.9%.

And he is actually ahead of the average good 1st line fwd age curve over his last 2 years.

 

[Striiker]

It blows my mind that anyone would want TK away from the top line.

Did people miss the last two seasons?

 

[Rebels57]

That’s bull****. He’s signed he should be playing.

Lol not sure if serious.

He hasnt even practiced yet. Might not see him until 3rd or 4th game.

 

[Adam Warlock]

Girouxs contract expires same year as Couturiers. So we shall see. He may want to play longer but start to take team-friendly short-term deals and take it 1-2 years at a time. Also expected cap to be way higher.

True...but the next 3 years theyll have Coots on a steal of a contract, Giroux, Voracek, and JVR still productive...and an infusion of talent on entry level deals. I just think the next 3 years is the best window.

 

[Tripod]

Looks like Dead got Appleyarded!

 

[Ghosts Beer]

It's not about "rewarding". He already has his contract and is locked in long term. It's about fit and what is best for the team.

TK on the 1st line vs Jake is not a big difference IMO

But Jake has the ability to lead another line into a scoring line, something TK can't do at this point. By having TK on line 1 and Jake on another, the 2 liners COMBINED gets us a better result overall.

But man, it sure is nice to be talking this way all while AV liking JVR Hayes and Lindblom as a line. We finally might have/should have 3 good lines again.

I like the idea of JVR - Hayes - Lindblom. I mentioned it as an idea in the summer. Great size, intelligence, Hayes & Lindblom are good defensively, etc.

But are you then really going to have Jak on line 3? No way. TK with Farabee & Patrick makes perfect sense to me.

 

[Rebels57]

True...but the next 3 years theyll have Coots on a steal of a contract, Giroux, Voracek, and JVR still productive...and an infusion of talent on entry level deals. I just think the next 3 years is the best window.

Might be our best window but doesnt mean it shuts after 3 years. A lot will change and the expansion draft will see a lot of salary and movement around the league.

 

[Tripod]

I like the idea of JVR - Hayes - Lindblom. I mentioned it as an idea in the summer. Great size, intelligence, Hayes & Lindblom are good defensively, etc.

But are you then really going to have Jak on line 3? No way. TK with Farabee & Patrick makes perfect sense to me.

If we had those 3 lines I suggested...3rd being Farabee Patrick Jake, we could role 3 lines without issue all getting good icetime. Then sub in some moves during the periods based on the situation...coming off PP's, PK's, etc...

Jake played a lot without Couts and Giroux at ES this past year....and his ES points only dropped by 2 points vs 2017/18.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

If we had those 3 lines I suggested...3rd being Farabee Patrick Jake, we could role 3 lines without issue all getting good icetime. Then sub in some moves during the periods based on the situation...coming off PP's, PK's, etc...

Jake played a lot without Couts and Giroux at ES this past year....and his ES points only dropped by 2 points vs 2017/18.

Nah. Playing Voracek on line 3 unreasonably limits the ice time of one of their top 3 players. I like TK, but he shouldn’t be playing more 5 on 5 than Voracek.

 

[AdamParrot]

Nah. Playing Voracek on line 3 unreasonably limits the ice time of one of their top 3 players. I like TK, but he shouldn’t be playing more 5 on 5 than Voracek.

If G-Coots-TK product like in 2017-18 where they were one of the best lines in NHL we shouldn't have problem with that.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

If G-Coots-TK product like in 2017-18 where they were one of the best lines in NHL we shouldn't have problem with that.

With Voracek they’ve been even better. I just can’t agree with giving TK more 5 on 5 minutes than Voracek & hanging Voracek out to dry with Patrick again.

 

[AdamParrot]

With Voracek they’ve been even better. I just can’t agree with giving TK more 5 on 5 minutes than Voracek & hanging Voracek out to dry with Patrick again.

I don't think so. G and Coots had better numbers with TK, Voracek is better player for sure, but you wouldn't put 3 top player into one line because of only they are best. G is great playmaker, TK can be 30-goal scorer in his line. Voracek can help Patrick or anyone else young player..

 

[Starat327]

I don't think so. G and Coots had better numbers with TK, Voracek is better player for sure, but you wouldn't put 3 top player into one line because of only they are best. G is great playmaker, TK can be 30-goal scorer in his line. Voracek can help Patrick or anyone else young player..

Those 3 shouldnt be playing together because none of them want to shoot. Unless Jake comes into the season with a renewed focus on shooting instead of passing, there is no justification for TK to not be in that spot by 10-15 games in (assuming he has to dog house it for 'holding out'). Not that he has a phenomenal shot, but he's at least willing to give it a go.

 

[Tripod]

With Voracek they’ve been even better. I just can’t agree with giving TK more 5 on 5 minutes than Voracek & hanging Voracek out to dry with Patrick again.

again...Jakes ES points went down by 2. Jake can still produce. No need to ignore that.

And Jake will still get more ES icetime than TK.

 

[deadhead]

Not many.

When I examined career trajectories of 139 fwds who got to 1st line level:

The average player added:

6.5 goals per 82 games between 22 and peak.
14 points per 82 games between 22 and peak.

Of the 139:

Rob Brown
Jimmy Carson
Mike Comrie
Jeff Friesen
Chris Gratton
Martin Havlat
Robert Reichel
Mikael Renberg
Paul Kariya
Mark Recchi
Saku Koivu

Peaked at 22 or earlier. 11/139.

7.9%. And quite a few of those were due to injury...

Konecny is actual almost exactly at the era adjusted age curve over the last two years for a 1st line level career fwd.

21: 22.7 goals, 50.1 points
22: 21.4 goals, 48.9 points

Konecny:

21: 26 goals, 49 points
22: 24 goals, 49 points

The peak for that group was 27:

25.5 goals, 62.4 points

If we go of a normal age curve equated to his current production the odds are that Konecny is a:

~30 goal, ~60 point scorer from age 24 to 31 with no serious injuries.

Problem is self-selection bias.
By using the players who had 1st line careers, you skew toward those who improve.
And you have implicit "survivor" bias (a problem in financial studies).

Another issue is "type," Konecky is a smaller player who matured physically early. Be interesting to see whether there are different career trajectories, for example Giroux started at 21 and peaked at 23-24. Kane peaked at 21, then had a second peak at 27, and his career year at 30 but with valleys in between. Many bigger forwards seem to peak later, maybe because physical maturation takes longer (body control catching up to physical growth).

 

[AdamParrot]

Myers is NHL player without a doubt.

 

[Lord Defect]

Welcome back TK. Love this contract.