Confirmed with Link: Travis Konecny Signs Extension - 6 Years/$33M ($5.5M AAV)

[baudib1]

Who are the wingers under 23 (drafted 2014 or later, TK was drafted in 2015) that you'd rather have over Konecny? There aren't many.

Marner
Pastrnak
Rantanen
Nylander
Tuch
Arvidsson
M. Tkachuk
B. Tkachuk
Boeser
Laine
Meier
Kaako
Connor
Debrincat
Ehlers
Kapanen
Svechnikov

I'm including guys like Svechnikov and Kaako even though they haven't done it yet. Am I missing anyone? TK belongs somewhere on this list, near the bottom, putting him in the top 20 wingers in the league under 23. These guys, as a group, should be the dominant wingers in the league over the next 4-5 years. It'll be a surprise if any of these 17 + TK will not be in the top 60 or so wingers in the league.

 

[1865]

I personally wouldn’t take Kapanen over TK.

 

[Appleyard]

Problem is self-selection bias.
By using the players who had 1st line careers, you skew toward those who improve.
And you have implicit "survivor" bias (a problem in financial studies).

Another issue is "type," Konecky is a smaller player who matured physically early. Be interesting to see whether there are different career trajectories, for example Giroux started at 21 and peaked at 23-24. Kane peaked at 21, then had a second peak at 27, and his career year at 30 but with valleys in between. Many bigger forwards seem to peak later, maybe because physical maturation takes longer (body control catching up to physical growth).

Kane peaked at 27 statistically. His age 21 season was no where near as good due to era and his 30 season was 2nd best. In fact age 21 was his SIXTH best offensive year on a per game basis adjusted for league scoring.

The top 5 came between age 24 and 31. He has had 5 great seasons in the last 7 years. And 13-14 was not far off his age 21 season at all. As for valleys. 17-18 is the only year since age 24 he has bot paced for 90+ era adjusted points per 82.

Giroux peaked at 24... his age 23 season is not even top 5. His 2nd best was at 30 and third at age 26.

Plus Konecny is one year off pretty much making the minimum selection criteria in terms of being selected for the sample I had.

Go out and find guys who had 2x 50+ point era adjusted seasons at age 20 and 21 and younger... and who did not have better years after that. The list is small.

The odds of Konecny not improving over the next 2 years are less than 10% however you slice it

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Those 3 shouldnt be playing together because none of them want to shoot. Unless Jake comes into the season with a renewed focus on shooting instead of passing, there is no justification for TK to not be in that spot by 10-15 games in (assuming he has to dog house it for 'holding out'). Not that he has a phenomenal shot, but he's at least willing to give it a go.

“No justification?”

The fact that the last time they played together with any regularity they were one of the very top scoring lines in the league & each player set a career high in points that season is “justification” enough, even if you disagree.

 

[deadhead]

I see Kapanen and TK as a wash, Kapanen is bigger and better defensively, TK has more offensive upside.

Three things TK has to do to take the next step:

1) become consistently average on defense, doesn't have to be a Selke candidate, just not a liability
2) improve on STs, become at least a solid PP2 guy, and if he contribute on the PK with his speed, even better
3) don't be "Couts dependent," that is, show he can work with Hayes and Patrick (and Frost down the road), b/c injuries happen

Do those three things the next couple years and this contract will become a bargain.
Just scoring isn't enough (necessary but not sufficient), also do the things that make teammates better and help the team win games.

 

[Appleyard]

Kane peaked at 27 statistically. His age 21 season was no where near as good due to era and his 30 season was 2nd best. In fact age 21 was his SIXTH best offensive year on a per game basis adjusted for league scoring.

The top 5 came between age 24 and 31. He has had 5 great seasons in the last 7 years. And 13-14 was not far off his age 21 season at all. As for valleys. 17-18 is the only year since age 24 he has bot paced for 90+ era adjusted points per 82.

Giroux peaked at 24... his age 23 season is not even top 5. His 2nd best was at 30 and third at age 26.

Plus Konecny is one year off pretty much making the minimum selection criteria in terms of being selected for the sample I had.

Go out and find guys who had 2x 50+ point era adjusted seasons at age 20 and 21 and younger... and who did not have better years after that. The list is small.

The odds of Konecny not improving over the next 2 years are less than 10% however you slice it

Though tomorrow I can go and pick out the 5'11 and under club vs 6'0 and over club from the 139 fwds and see what the stats say in regards to primes and peaks. As I think that will be interesting for sure.

 

[Starat327]

“No justification?”

The fact that the last time they played together with any regularity they were one of the very top scoring lines in the league & each player set a career high in points that season is “justification” enough, even if you disagree.

Ah, so I take it you want to see Ghost and Provorov as a pairing again, too then? Afterall, it stands to reason, given what you just said....

 

[deadhead]

Kane peaked at 27 statistically. His age 21 season was no where near as good due to era and his 30 season was 2nd best. In fact age 21 was his SIXTH best offensive year on a per game basis adjusted for league scoring.

The top 5 came between age 24 and 31. He has had 5 great seasons in the last 7 years. And 13-14 was not far off his age 21 season at all. As for valleys. 17-18 is the only year since age 24 he has bot paced for 90+ era adjusted points per 82.

Kane is an interesting case,
his xGA/60 took a nosedive starting in 2014-15 and accelerating the next year.
Makes you wonder how much of his late career scoring surge was simply ignoring his defensive responsibilities.

 

[deadhead]

Though tomorrow I can go and pick out the 5'11 and under club vs 6'0 and over club from the 139 fwds and see what the stats say in regards to primes and peaks. As I think that will be interesting for sure.

I might look at weight as well as height, I think there's a bit of a difference between say 6'1 190 and 6'1 210.

I'd also probably split my sample into 3, 5'10 and under, 5'11 - 6'1, 6'2 and taller
This is because "bigger" should be well above the median (6'0?)

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

 

[PHILOUDELPHIA]

Great it got done.

To celebrate see my food special in the menu.

It's a KC special

 

[Larry44]

I personally wouldn’t take Kapanen over TK.

Agreed. Not a chance.

 

[Tripod]

Ah, so I take it you want to see Ghost and Provorov as a pairing again, too then? Afterall, it stands to reason, given what you just said....

OH SNAP!!!!

 

[Starat327]

OH SNAP!!!!

Youll notice there hasnt been a response at all. I swear, you can walk them to the quicksand, sometimes. So predictable.

 

[Tripod]

Youll notice there hasnt been a response at all. I swear, you can walk them to the quicksand, sometimes. So predictable.

I look forward to seeing his rebuttal.

 

[Starat327]

I look forward to seeing his rebuttal.

Me too, because of the sheer volume of mental gymnastics required. Simone Biles will have a hard time keeping up with this one.

 

[Laveuglette]

This is a solid contract IMO. Konecny still very young and is a good player.

 

[Ruck Over]

Actually I ****ed up... as Konecny was 21 last year, not 22 going off the criteria I used in original study.

Which means:


Rob Brown
Jimmy Carson
Mike Comrie
Jeff Friesen

Are only 4/139 fwds who had peaked at his age. 2.9%.

And he is actually ahead of the average good 1st line fwd age curve over his last 2 years.

If you f***ed up here, even admittedly so, how can we be sure you haven't f***ed up elsewhere? Would you even tell us if you had?

I'm sorry Appleyard. I'm going to cancel my subscription to the Athletic. You were the only thing keeping me there, and are no longer a reliable source of content.

Had you used feelz, instead of mathz, you would be beyond reproach. No one can better tell us how you feel better than you. And like opinions, feelz are free to change, willy-nilly on a whim. You exposed yourself for the fraud that you are. Mathz iz hardz, too hardz for youz.

#ObviousHeelTurn

#f***yeahhockeyisback!

 

[landsbergfan]

Though tomorrow I can go and pick out the 5'11 and under club vs 6'0 and over club from the 139 fwds and see what the stats say in regards to primes and peaks. As I think that will be interesting for sure.

If you are filtering through data. One thing I started to look at and got busy/lazy was how much PP1 time changed Konecny's numbers. The theory is that it isn't as if these guys suddenly become good at hockey, they just get put into much more advantageous situations for scoring points

 

[Tripod]

If you are filtering through data. One thing I started to look at and got busy/lazy was how much PP1 time changed Konecny's numbers. The theory is that it isn't as if these guys suddenly become good at hockey, they just get put into much more advantageous situations for scoring points

Couts is the best example. He was labeled the worst PP guy in the league while on our #2 unit a few years ago based on numbers.

He had 23 PP points in 416 games PRE SCHENN TRADE.

Post Schenn trade with time on the top unit once Hak and Co moved on from the Filppula experiment on the #1 unit:

31 PP points in 162 games.

But what we DO need, is the #2 unit to become its own good unit. There is enough talent to do that with TK, Sanheim, Hayes, Patrick, Lindblom, Farabee, Frost.

 

[Rebels57]

Couts is the best example. He was labeled the worst PP guy in the league while on our #2 unit a few years ago based on numbers.

He had 23 PP points in 416 games PRE SCHENN TRADE.

Post Schenn trade with time on the top unit once Hak and Co moved on from the Filppula experiment on the #1 unit:

31 PP points in 162 games.

But what we DO need, is the #2 unit to become its own good unit. There is enough talent to do that with TK, Sanheim, Hayes, Patrick, Lindblom, Farabee, Frost.

Hayes is going to be huge for that 2nd unit with his ability to keep posession alive.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Ah, so I take it you want to see Ghost and Provorov as a pairing again, too then? Afterall, it stands to reason, given what you just said....

No it doesn’t “reason.” A) Forward lines vs. defense pairings have different functions, not just pure offense for all; B) I don’t think Ghost should get first pairing minutes on this D because I think he’s best focusing on offensive deployment & not handling the hardest matchup, whereas I think Voracek should get first line minutes at forward; & C) The Ghost/Provorov pairing was hot garbage last season. If Giroux-Couturier-Voracek played together last season & shit the bed then they’d you’d at least have part of an analogy.

 

[Starat327]

No it doesn’t “reason.” A) Forward lines vs. defense pairings have different functions, not just pure offense for all; B) I don’t think Ghost should get first pairing minutes on this D because I think he’s best focusing on offensive deployment & not handling the hardest matchup, whereas I think Voracek should get first line minutes at forward; & C) The Ghost/Provorov pairing was hot garbage last season. If Giroux-Couturier-Voracek played together last season & **** the bed then they’d you’d at least have part of an analogy.

a)That pair was extremely good at the defensive side of things as well. Ghost actually had the better defensive metrics that year as well, if im not mistaken. But hey, why let a little bias ruin the conversation?
b) This makes no sense, because when Provorov and Ghost were together, they were handling the hardest matchups, and consistently outproducing the other team.
c) G-Couturier-Voracek was hot garbage at times as well, yet you seem awfully interested in reuniting that and giving it another shot. G-Couturier- TK was an incredible line at one point as well.

As usual, this reeks of complete bias.

 

[prototypical4thliner]

No it doesn’t “reason.” A) Forward lines vs. defense pairings have different functions, not just pure offense for all; B) I don’t think Ghost should get first pairing minutes on this D because I think he’s best focusing on offensive deployment & not handling the hardest matchup, whereas I think Voracek should get first line minutes at forward; & C) The Ghost/Provorov pairing was hot garbage last season. If Giroux-Couturier-Voracek played together last season & **** the bed then they’d you’d at least have part of an analogy.

I’d argue that putting giroux couturier and voracek together is counterintuitive. Not that the line itself wouldn’t be successful, but it makes us an easier team lines 1-4 to play against.

Currently, and this is open to discussion, we have four guys that I would characterize as play drivers: couturier, giroux, voracek and Hayes. If we stack three of them on one line, we have a line that is counting on Nolan Patrick to carry. I think it’s a much more balanced lineup keeping voracek away from giroux and couturier (whom I expect will stick together). Konecny has shown the ability to be an above average finisher for that line and as he further develops, some consistency in that role could end up with him being a 30-35 goal guy.

 

[Curufinwe]

Funny how this has literally nothing to do with Travis Konecny signing an extension. (hint: thread title)

Overpaid third line roadkill.

Better?