Pre-Game Talk: Training Camp 2022/23

[Mortimer Snerd]

Okay, Schmidt-Stanley then!

Okay so no one else in the NHL actually believed AHL Hurtkins was an NHL talent, just Maurice I guess!

Nope. Lots of players clear waivers at this time of year. Doesn't mean they are not NHL'ers and quite a few will be back before long.

 

[gojetsgo]

I suspect there were a few reasons. That would be a likely one.

But what if Snerg gets sent down too, when Copa is ready and/or when Axel gets his work permit sorted out? Is it Copa vs Snerg and Heinola?

when copa is ready? is he even hurt, haven't seen that mentioned at all or seen him not listed at practice nor seen him listed in a non-contact jersey, pretty sure axel got his visa worked out since they put appleton on ir today and bowness did mention that they have 8 nhl defensemen on the roster and if samberg wasn't an option to play they would just send him down

 

[KingBogo]

Most of those issues in Ville's game really only get addressed by playing at NHL speed against NHL players. Playing in a game speed he's comfortable with and dominates doesn't help those areas.

But yes I will be hopeful that Snerg will leave Logan in his dust soon. His camp wasn't very good but he has much more tools with regards to playing the role that the coach wants filled.

At this point Ville has to really dominate in the AHL and start making the decision an easy one to make. Right now there was really only one spot open and hopefully Samberg grabs hold of it and pushes Stanley into the PB. Again IMO, moving one of the 5 established vet d-man was beyond where the organization is willing to go at this time. Unless of course a deal was too good to pass up, but the trade market is too tight for that. They will all play if healthy, that leaves a spot and at this point it looks like it is going to Samberg.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Because he’s better? If he is, I wish he would show it. I’m expecting the police to grab Samberg and tear off his mask to reveal Tucker Poolman…”I would have gotten away with it too if it wasn’t for those meddling kids!”

Yes, hopefully because he is better. Someone's got to be.

 

[lomiller1]

I just don't see the rush. Villie still tends to panic a bit under pressure in his own zone. Too much pressure on the organization to be competitive this season to deal vets at this point. I think Samberg is more ready to move into an everyday role than Villie, and with 5 established vets Villie will need to keep working and he will get his shot. At this point I'll be happy if Samberg establishes himself over Stanley which I think happens, and Heinola gets somewhere in the 30-50 NHL game range with injuries and starts showing what he can do. Then at some point the organization opens up a spot for him.

You say that, then list things that can only be addressed with NHL reps. The sooner he starts getting NHL reps the better the chance he can resolve issues like this and become a top 4 D-man. Holding him up for players we know will never be top 4 D men makes no sense.

 

[voyageur]

I think people take them into account but some like me subscribe to the notion that the more skilled players make the better special teams players. The best PK dmen aren't bottom pairing plugs they are your elite dmen. So imo I would much rather dress a highly talented player on the third pairing and teach them to PK as imo they will yield superior results long term in both situations.

For instance big Logan Stanley is up to PK UT has had some of the worst defensive results in the league doing it the last few years. So really given his atrocious results at doing that job there is really nowhere to go but up switching him for Heionla. Not only that but there is much higher upside at 5 on 5.

You mean last year. Last year was Stanley's only year on the PK as a regular. And last year Heinola was terrible in TC, and the perceived improvement 5 on 5 was minimal using things like CF% when he did play. The year before Stanley flat out won the job. And put up good underlying numbers, to which the naysayers said he was sheltered.

This preseason Heinola looked outstanding on the PP, and that came pretty close to earning him a job. This preseason the PK has been improved, seems like Stanley has been a part of the success. 5 on 5 I think it was written elsewhere that Stanley has better underlying numbers, I can't confirm this. So while it is undeniable which player is more skilled, it is not cut and dry who is more effective. Especially in terms of roles.

 

[KingBogo]

You say that, then list things that can only be addressed with NHL reps. The sooner he starts getting NHL reps the better the chance he can resolve issues like this and become a top 4 D-man. Holding him up for players we know will never be top 4 D men makes no sense.

But that is not the case. Everyone of our established 5 vets have all played in the top 4 at different points. Morrissey, DeMelo, Pionk, Dillion and Schmidt. And the organization is currently paying them all between $6.25 - $3 M to do so. They will all be starters, including taking up all top 4 positions. The last open position appears to have come down to Samberg Vs Stanley. I'm hopeful Samberg is in the starting lineup on Friday.

 

[RabidOne]

Well two as Stanley was also a first round pick.

True.
The thread was about top first round picks (Top 10?). So the only one that ever fit that profile was Trouba.

 

[surixon]

At this point Ville has to really dominate in the AHL and start making the decision an easy one to make. Right now there was really only one spot open and hopefully Samberg grabs hold of it and pushes Stanley into the PB. Again IMO, moving one of the 5 established vet d-man was beyond where the organization is willing to go at this time. Unless of course a deal was too good to pass up, but the trade market is too tight for that. They will all play if healthy, that leaves a spot and at this point it looks like it is going to Samberg.

I mean there are very real forward depth issues on this team. Imo the prudent move would be to move out a dmen for forward help. We have more the enough quality depthbon defense to absorb the loss or one player.

 

[KingBogo]

I mean there are very real forward depth issues on this team. Imo the prudent move would be to move out a dmen for forward help. We have more the enough quality depthbon defense to absorb the loss or one player.

How many hockey trades have we seen this offseason? Early on there was a bit of a flurry of players for future moves and then crickets other then for teams paying other teams to clear up cap space. How much would you have been willing to pay to move Schmidt's contract to clear a spot? To me he would be the player you'd try to move to clear a roster spot for Heinola.

 

[surixon]

You mean last year. Last year was Stanley's only year on the PK as a regular. And last year Heinola was terrible in TC, and the perceived improvement 5 on 5 was minimal using things like CF% when he did play. The year before Stanley flat out won the job. And put up good underlying numbers, to which the naysayers said he was sheltered.

This preseason Heinola looked outstanding on the PP, and that came pretty close to earning him a job. This preseason the PK has been improved, seems like Stanley has been a part of the success. 5 on 5 I think it was written elsewhere that Stanley has better underlying numbers, I can't confirm this. So while it is undeniable which player is more skilled, it is not cut and dry who is more effective. Especially in terms of roles.

Their underlying numbers where essentially the same last year and that is despite Stanley getting a good chunk of ice time with DeMelo.

Also if you want to use small samples for PK prowess Ville posted the second best XGA results on the PK this preseason behind JoMo. None of the ayers played enough minutes to read anything into them.

 

[voyageur]

when copa is ready? is he even hurt, haven't seen that mentioned at all or seen him not listed at practice nor seen him listed in a non-contact jersey, pretty sure axel got his visa worked out since they put appleton on ir today and bowness did mention that they have 8 nhl defensemen on the roster and if samberg wasn't an option to play they would just send him down

I wonder if there is any chance you see 7 d-men opening night. With Appleton on IR, and the new guy is going to need a few practices to adapt to a new team, you have the choice of dressing Toninato or having 7 defensemen. Samberg has been very good on the PK that's probably why he was on the top unit in practice. Maybe you split the 5 on 5 minutes between those 2 defensemen in different scenarios, Stanley offensive, Samberg defensive. Bowness could rotate either Maenalanen or Gagner on the checking line.

 

[gojetsgo]

I wonder if there is any chance you see 7 d-men opening night. With Appleton on IR, and the new guy is going to need a few practices to adapt to a new team, you have the choice of dressing Toninato or having 7 defensemen. Samberg has been very good on the PK that's probably why he was on the top unit in practice. Maybe you split the 5 on 5 minutes between those 2 defensemen in different scenarios, Stanley offensive, Samberg defensive. Bowness could rotate either Maenalanen or Gagner on the checking line.

I'd say zero chance, bowness like to roll 4 lines and appleton will most likely be back

 

[WolfHouse]

That’s a long time

 

[DRW204]

I like our team.


I don’t have much confidence in our bottom 6 and that’s my only issue.

Doesn’t look like a lot of goals and or points will come from them and we don’t have the defence a Colorado has for example. That scores alot and allowed your bottom 6 to score 50 goals between 6 players and still be a force.

If we can get 20 goals out of one of the bottom 6 and an average of 10 from the rest that’s 60 goals and that’s even pushing it with these guys

our bottom 6 scored 35-40 goals last year. a 50% increase? idk boss.

 

[Teemusalami204]

our bottom 6 scored 35-40 goals last year. a 50% increase? idk boss.

I don’t think it’s going to happen. And that’s why I said I am a bit worried. And it will be our downfall this year

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Copa is sitting in the press box all year I'd imagine

 

[JetsUK]

Copa is sitting in the press box all year I'd imagine

I'd stick him in the cabana.

 

[surixon]

early FA imo.

How many hockey trades have we seen this offseason? Early on there was a bit of a flurry of players for future moves and then crickets other then for teams paying other teams to clear up cap space. How much would you have been willing to pay to move Schmidt's contract to clear a spot? To me he would be the player you'd try to move to clear a roster spot for Heinola.

Well I was advocating Pionk back near the draft. Now we are likely stuck for about the first 1/4 while teams assess what they have. I would be keeping my options open if I were Chevy.

It is a cautionary tail that sometimes paying for older and longer term contracts isn't always wise.

 

[DRW204]

I'm glad the coach explained his position but it still doesn't change much for the player. Ville's effectively blocked from the role the coach invisions for him him by 3 players making a combined roughly $18million. Not only is he blocked in the short term but in the mid and long term as well as all have multiple years of term left.

I'm not sure why many are so optimistic and I would still be asking my agent for a trade if I were him. It comes down to the same thing either they move Pionk or Schmidt or they need to move him before his value tanks.

Also I have no idea why NHL coaches seem to think big and physical dmen make the best PKers. Often the most skilled and best at reading and reaching to the play make the best PK dmen.

Agreed fully on your first paragraph. Been banging this drum for couple years now. To much vet and dollars tied up now on the depth chart so he was unlikely to get a spot.

The special teams explanation was just a convenient excuse. Nothing changed on this roster from the beg. of the offseason till now. Since it was a matter of 3 pp players ahead of heinola, those 3 were likely not going anywhere anyway so really there was no shot for him (whether right or wrong is a different discussion). Bowness notes experience as well.... This is where the org imo could've benefitted on playing the youngsters down the stretch last year. or ahead of the likes of sbisa, Beaulieu, dhalstrom, bitetto for instance in previous years. Remember it took sbisa and Beaulieu getting waived and hurt for Stanley to get a shot too.

I can see this turning similarly to the Lundkvist situation in NYR. However, he had a superior nhl depth chart in front of him to deal with compared to heinola or samberg.

On a bite of sidenote, not directed to you but in general... Where does the "bowness is good for young dmen" stem from? The average age of Dallas defense (weighted by TOI) was 29 years old last year. I understand Heiskanen performed strongly there, however, he was a high end prospect basically destined to be great. I don't know if Bowness really "made" him, I think you put any coach there and he flourishes. He in fact did with Montgomery as a rookie. Idk if there's enough to conclude if RB is good or bad

 

[surixon]

Agreed fully on your first paragraph. Been banging this drum for couple years now. To much vet and dollars tied up now on the depth chart so he was unlikely to get a spot.

The special teams explanation was just a convenient excuse. Nothing changed on this roster from the beg. of the offseason till now. Since it was a matter of 3 pp players ahead of heinola, those 3 were likely not going anywhere anyway so really there was no shot for him (whether right or wrong is a different discussion). Bowness notes experience as well.... This is where the org imo could've benefitted on playing the youngsters down the stretch last year. or ahead of the likes of sbisa, Beaulieu, dhalstrom, bitetto for instance in previous years. Remember it took sbisa and Beaulieu getting waived and hurt for Stanley to get a shot too.

I can see this turning similarly to the Lundkvist situation in NYR. However, he had a superior nhl depth chart in front of him to deal with compared to heinola or samberg.

On a bite of sidenote, not directed to you but in general... Where does the "bowness is good for young dmen" stem from? The average age of Dallas defense (weighted by TOI) was 29 years old last year. I understand Heiskanen performed strongly there, however, he was a high end prospect basically destined to be great. I don't know if Bowness really "made" him, I think you put any coach there and he flourishes. He in fact did with Montgomery as a rookie. Idk if there's enough to conclude if RB is good or bad

Yeah I never got that moniker either. It is pretty much solely due to Heiskanen but as you said the first year and a half of his career happened under Montgomery. He did have that amazing playoff run under Bowness though which is likely where most of the praise comes from.

Harley got in some games but not enough to really draw any conclusions. If anything he was better with the young forwards in Robertson and Hintz.

Maybe there is someone from an earlier head coaching stint.

 

[DRW204]

Yeah I never got that moniker either. It is pretty much solely due to Heiskanen but as you said the first year and a half of his career happened under Montgomery. He did have that amazing playoff run under Bowness though which is likely where most of the praise comes from.

Harley got in some games but not enough to really draw any conclusions. If anything he was better with the young forwards in Robertson and Hintz.

Maybe there is someone from an earlier head coaching stint.

I don't follow the stars close enough to say. It doesn't seem like many stars fans were thrilled with Harley's handling through the year.

Yeah I can see with Hintz. Robertson was a prolific goal scorer in jrs I think there was already a high chance of him being a strong offensive player as a pro. Idk about his defensive game if he rates well there.

 

[Weezeric]

our bottom 6 scored 35-40 goals last year. a 50% increase? idk boss.

Just looking at Lowry. He was on the ice for 40 xG and only actually got 19 on ~4% shooting. The previous year was 26 goals with ~10% shooting on 19 xG.

 

[DRW204]

Just looking at Lowry. He was on the ice for 40 xG and only actually got 19 on ~4% shooting. The previous year was 26 goals with ~10% shooting on 19 xG.

Yeah they couldn't finish so I am not surprised they underscored xGf, that also included time with scheifele or Wheeler which I'm gonna guess had a higher xGf generated than his usual. If they did get 1:1 they'd have hit +21 more goals though which would have been V good for us.

His on ice sh% in the cdn division was a career high. That'd have been 44 goals for, previous year's would've been 25 and year before 29 (assuming same shot total). Idk if we should be expecting the cdn div year in terms of sh% but I don't think it'll be as low as this year's. The other two seasons are close to this year's tho.

 

[gojetsgo]

I don't think our bottom 6 will be very good at scoring but I think they will be better then last year just by getting more mins and playing a more aggressive style will help.