Trades and Free Agent Talk - A New Season A New Thread

[Alklha]

If Pietrangelo hit UFA, 7 years at 8.5-9M I have to imagine is the cost right?

There is no doubt that it'll be an 8 figure AAV if he goes to UFA.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

If he hit UFA, and we had the cap, it's a legit conversation.

If the Leafs traded Nylander or Marner and replaced him with Bracco, that would likely open up the sufficient cap space. Obviously a downgrade at RW, but Pietrangelo would give us one of the best top pairings in the league and we get the massive return on the trade...

22-26 mill + cap increase. Would Pietrangelo get as much as Doughty and Karlsson (at least cap% wise)? He's not quite Norris caliber like they are. The other concern is term; it would be for the max 7 years and that takes him to 37... How good is he going to be even half way through that deal? If he holds up like Weber (or even better, Giordano) mostly did, then he'd probably still be good enough at 37 to be worth the better years, but it has to come at the right price.

I think anything under 10 would be a steal, and anything over 11 mill is an overpayment IMO. So work around in there. Below I had Pietrangelo at 11 mill, which is the max I would go with him, but why not deal with worst case scenario?

The trade was Marner + Bracco for Werenski, Bjorkstrand and a 1st. We can tinker with the value, but that would be the base.

That roster has 7 holes:
- 1 Top 9 forward/4th liner (depending on how you deploy Moore)
- 2 more 4th liners
- 3 depth players
- 1 backup goalie

For those who do not want to do the math, you can average around 1 mill per player to fill the rest of the holes. That would allow you to get one or two decent players (maybe bringing back Mikheyev if the price is right and a decent backup for example) and have most of the 4th line and depth players being league minimum prospects/UFA guys.

 

[Boutette]

I'm not commenting on the lightning on a whole nor should their overpaid vets have anything to do with the leafs overpaying Marner. Point is a decent comparable to Marner (90+ points on ELC) and just signed a significantly cheaper contract than the one offered and not accepted by Marner. That is a problem.

I dont understand the line of thought whereby people basically say it is okay to overpay our stars because we dont have any bad contracts on the books. That is not a good strategy in a cap league. You try to get everyone you can locked up as cheaply as you can. Maybe one of Marner, Matthews or Nylander completely crumbles under expectations and suddenly the leafs have a brutal contract on their hands.

The leafs haven't felt the repercussions of their cap crunch yet but next offseason will be a rough one. These overpayments will result in good players walking for free (Muzzin is a decent chance) or good young roster players moved for futures (one of Kap, AJ or Kerfoot perhaps if he doesnt pan out at center).

Chicken little's were crying the sky is falling this spring as well. Didn't quite work out like they thought - the team actually got better. Next year will be much the same I suspect. Folks like you are just starting it early. Muzzin is OK and all, but do you really want the leafs to compete to overpay a guy who'll want a raise from his current 4mil for his 32-36 years? When they'll have the likes of Dermott and Sandin ready to be promoted? I think you are stuck in the past. PS. How are the likes of Moore and Timashov or any other of the bigger prospects on the Marlies going to get a chance to prove themselves if someone ahead of them isn't moved out?

What do you mean, pan out? Nylander, Marner, Mattews and Tavares have already proven themselves with high value play over multiple years. And both Nylander and Marner have contracts structured to make them immensely attractive to teams that are looking for low real $$$ payouts for on ice value.

Again, I'd much rather have our top stars who are barely entering their peak years get paid what they are worth than have our GM tempted to pay a declining player more than he's worth from the get go like the team has done with the likes of Clarkson, Komasarek, Marleau etc. The team certainly dodged bullets like what Komarov and Hainsey have gotten paid, and that's what happens when GMs have AAV burning holes in their pockets, just look around the league.

 

[dangomon]

No he isn't, I agree. Which is why I still feel the trade wasn't really a good fit.

Personally need to see how this year goes with Muzzin to make that claim. He has a full off-season, full training camp and full season with the team, and it's absolutely reasonable to assume he'll be better for it compared to last year. Aside from shooting left, he was one of the best dmen to acquire in terms of Leafs' needs.

Obvious downside is his term, but beggars can't be choosers.

 

[Jozay]

If the Leafs traded Nylander or Marner and replaced him with Bracco, that would likely open up the sufficient cap space. Obviously a downgrade at RW, but Pietrangelo would give us one of the best top pairings in the league and we get the massive return on the trade...

22-26 mill + cap increase. Would Pietrangelo get as much as Doughty and Karlsson (at least cap% wise)? He's not quite Norris caliber like they are. The other concern is term; it would be for the max 7 years and that takes him to 37... How good is he going to be even half way through that deal? If he holds up like Weber (or even better, Giordano) mostly did, then he'd probably still be good enough at 37 to be worth the better years, but it has to come at the right price.

I think anything under 10 would be a steal, and anything over 11 mill is an overpayment IMO. So work around in there. Below I had Pietrangelo at 11 mill, which is the max I would go with him, but why not deal with worst case scenario?

View attachment 257045

The trade was Marner + Bracco for Werenski, Bjorkstrand and a 1st. We can tinker with the value, but that would be the base.

That roster has 7 holes:
- 1 Top 9 forward/4th liner (depending on how you deploy Moore)
- 2 more 4th liners
- 3 depth players
- 1 backup goalie

For those who do not want to do the math, you can average around 1 mill per player to fill the rest of the holes. That would allow you to get one or two decent players (maybe bringing back Mikheyev if the price is right and a decent backup for example) and have most of the 4th line and depth players being league minimum prospects/UFA guys.

Leafs have the cap space to do it without trading anybody. I really dont think Pietrangelo will be getting 11.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Chicken little's were crying the sky is falling this spring as well. Didn't quite work out like they thought - the team actually got better. Next year will be much the same I suspect. Folks like you are just starting it early. Muzzin is OK and all, but do you really want the leafs to compete to overpay a guy who'll want a raise from his current 4mil for his 32-36 years? When they'll have the likes of Dermott and Sandin ready to be promoted? I think you are stuck in the past. PS. How are the likes of Moore and Timashov or any other of the bigger prospects on the Marlies going to get a chance to prove themselves if someone ahead of them isn't moved out? Again, I'd much rather have our top stars who are barely entering their peak years get paid what they are worth than have our GM tempted to pay a declining player more than he's worth from the get go like the team used to.

So your just completely fine with overpayments? One of the reason it worked this summer is because we used a first round pick to get out of the Marleau contract (Lou's last gift).

Leafs got better in the short term (this year) but we will have to see if we can fit Barrie in before we say we got better longterm over the summer. I was a pretty big Gardiner fan so having him walk for nothing hurt.

You're assuming a lot of my opinions out of nowhere... I personally would let Muzzin walk because of the leafs depth at left defense. However Dermott is a big downgrade from Muzzin at this current point but it does make sense financially.

I guess I wont be able to convince you if you actually think that is a fair contract for Marner. In regards to the bolded I dont worry about that at all. There is no way Dubas would spend a lot of cap on a declining vet, it isnt his style. That extra cap space from not overpaying guys like Marner could of brought back a player like Gardiner (only paid like 3 million over replacement level player on a short term contract) or keep a guy like AJ/Kap/Kerfoot in the future.

 

[Boutette]

So your just completely fine with overpayments? One of the reason it worked this summer is because we used a first round pick to get out of the Marleau contract (Lou's last gift).

Leafs got better in the short term (this year) but we will have to see if we can fit Barrie in before we say we got better longterm over the summer. I was a pretty big Gardiner fan so having him walk for nothing hurt.

You're assuming a lot of my opinions out of nowhere... I personally would let Muzzin walk because of the leafs depth at left defense. However Dermott is a big downgrade from Muzzin at this current point but it does make sense financially.

I guess I wont be able to convince you if you actually think that is a fair contract for Marner. In regards to the bolded I dont worry about that at all. There is no way Dubas would spend a lot of cap on a declining vet, it isnt his style. That extra cap space from not overpaying guys like Marner could of brought back a player like Gardiner (only paid like 3 million over replacement level player on a short term contract) or keep a guy like AJ/Kap/Kerfoot in the future.

Every team in the league has players who are overpaid for one reason or another. The only question is how that overpayment is managed. I don't assume your opinions come out of nowhere. But like all opinions they are biased. My bias is paying players for how good they are expected to be going forwards, not how good they used to be. The Leafs are a very rich team, so I'm not concerned about how they structure contracts of players like Nylander or Marner, because it makes them easier to trade in future and the real $$$ cost to MLSE is negligible anyways. Those contracts you rail against aren't as inhibiting as you think they are, as they are so frontloaded as to make both Nylander and Marner's contracts very attractive in future. They are just the current org's angle at the same problem every contending team faces.

PS. Tampa's 40-50pt forwards this year have 4-5mil AAVs each. Toronto's 40-40pt forwards have 2-3mil AAVs each. Yes, Marner cost more than Point, but Kapanen costs less than Gourde. And seriously, by the end of this year, Dermott will have played 3 seasons. When do you think he will be good enough to play in the top 4, then?

The Leafs strategy is worse than what any of the other top teams in the league are doing, IMO. Its just different.

 

[Walshy7]

If the Leafs traded Nylander or Marner and replaced him with Bracco, that would likely open up the sufficient cap space. Obviously a downgrade at RW, but Pietrangelo would give us one of the best top pairings in the league and we get the massive return on the trade...

22-26 mill + cap increase. Would Pietrangelo get as much as Doughty and Karlsson (at least cap% wise)? He's not quite Norris caliber like they are. The other concern is term; it would be for the max 7 years and that takes him to 37... How good is he going to be even half way through that deal? If he holds up like Weber (or even better, Giordano) mostly did, then he'd probably still be good enough at 37 to be worth the better years, but it has to come at the right price.

I think anything under 10 would be a steal, and anything over 11 mill is an overpayment IMO. So work around in there. Below I had Pietrangelo at 11 mill, which is the max I would go with him, but why not deal with worst case scenario?

View attachment 257045

The trade was Marner + Bracco for Werenski, Bjorkstrand and a 1st. We can tinker with the value, but that would be the base.

That roster has 7 holes:
- 1 Top 9 forward/4th liner (depending on how you deploy Moore)
- 2 more 4th liners
- 3 depth players
- 1 backup goalie

For those who do not want to do the math, you can average around 1 mill per player to fill the rest of the holes. That would allow you to get one or two decent players (maybe bringing back Mikheyev if the price is right and a decent backup for example) and have most of the 4th line and depth players being league minimum prospects/UFA guys.

It would have to be Marner, Nylander wouldn't cover the cost of Pietrangelo. Als he is 29 he will be 30 the following season that's getting close to terrible contract territory pretty quickly. Lastly he won a cup there he will end signing a 5 x $8m deal then walk off into the sunset

 

[SeaOfBlue]

It would have to be Marner, Nylander wouldn't cover the cost of Pietrangelo. Als he is 29 he will be 30 the following season that's getting close to terrible contract territory pretty quickly. Lastly he won a cup there he will end signing a 5 x $8m deal then walk off into the sunset

That's a lot of money for RD though... Faulk, Parayko, Pietrangelo?

 

[dubplatepressure]

Other tax free states arent getting the discounts that Tampa is. It is a team culture started from their 1st overall franchise center taking a pay cut.

I mean if Toronto was so much worse than places like Tampa I dont see how the leafs would be able to sign guys like Kerfoot, Kap and AJ to fair market value contracts. Shouldnt they have also received the 'Toronto Tax'?

Ok one, he took a pay cut... Why? Lets get our argument straight there first.

Two, it's not like their #1G took a pay cut... So like... Wtf?

Three, who's to say AJ, Kap etc didn't receive it? Seems reasonable to us but maybe TB gets them for 1M cheaper. Or maybe they recognise that if they play hardball they may also end up in Edmonton or Columbus or Arizona rather than Tampa Bay.

 

[deletethis]

The NHL feels like it's heading headlong into a situation one summer where there are going to be a slew of UFAs and RFAs who are deserving big raises on paper but there are no teams with the appropriate cap space to pay the players.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Every team in the league has players who are overpaid for one reason or another. The only question is how that overpayment is managed. I don't assume your opinions come out of nowhere. But like all opinions they are biased. My bias is paying players for how good they are expected to be going forwards, not how good they used to be. The Leafs are a very rich team, so I'm not concerned about how they structure contracts of players like Nylander or Marner, because it makes them easier to trade in future and the real $$$ cost to MLSE is negligible anyways. Those contracts you rail against aren't as inhibiting as you think they are, as they are so frontloaded as to make both Nylander and Marner's contracts very attractive in future. They are just the current org's angle at the same problem every contending team faces.

PS. Tampa's 40-50pt forwards this year have 4-5mil AAVs each. Toronto's 40-40pt forwards have 2-3mil AAVs each. Yes, Marner cost more than Point, but Kapanen costs less than Gourde. And seriously, by the end of this year, Dermott will have played 3 seasons. When do you think he will be good enough to play in the top 4, then?

The Leafs strategy is worse than what any of the other top teams in the league are doing, IMO. Its just different.

The reason those contracts were front loaded was not to make it easier to move in the future it was to give the players more money up front as a means to (hopefully) reduce the AAV of their contracts. It is certainly more beneficial to the player than the team. Moving Nylander or Marner at the end of their contracts when they provide the most value due to cap inflation is not the best asset management.

The fact you keep bringing up Tampa's other forwards shows you have missed the point completely. I brought up Point's contract to show Marner was definitely overpaid not to say that Tampa's dont have their own cap problems (which they obviously do).

Dermott has yet to show he can play top 4 minutes, struggles when usage is increased and he wont get a chance this year to prove he is a top 4 guy as he is buried behind Muzzin and Rielly. Letting Muzzin, the only defensively inclined defender on the team, walk for free will suck and make the team worse but it will be neccessary.

I never said the strategy the leafs are using is neccesarily bad, only time will tell. I said overpaying anyone significantly is bad and just because they are a star doesnt make it okay. It makes it easier to stomach but it is still a mistake and one that shouldnt just get swept under the rug because the leafs dont have overpaid vets on the team.

Dubas is betting on the cap rising significantly over the next few years, we all hope he is correct or the leafs depth is going to take a huge hit. That is even considering the raise Andy + Rielly will next within the next 3 years.

 

[dubplatepressure]

The fact you keep bringing up Tampa's other forwards shows you have missed the point completely. I brought up Point's contract to show Marner was definitely overpaid not to say that Tampa's dont have their own cap problems (which they obviously do).

In which I articulated a meaningful response that you never responded to. Point has a 3 year deal. So, in 3 years when the cap is 5-7 million higher and he's still a 90 pt player, he'll be asking for $13M, while we are sitting with 3 more years of Marner at $10.whateveritis. That's the play here - give 3/year now, get 3/year in 3 years. It's really not a bad move at all and continuously banging this drum that just compares AAV of these players now is kind of silly.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Ok one, he took a pay cut... Why? Lets get our argument straight there first.

Two, it's not like their #1G took a pay cut... So like... Wtf?

Three, who's to say AJ, Kap etc didn't receive it? Seems reasonable to us but maybe TB gets them for 1M cheaper. Or maybe they recognise that if they play hardball they may also end up in Edmonton or Columbus or Arizona rather than Tampa Bay.

I would honestly say it is a bit of both, Point took a bit of a discount especially as he took a bridge that carries risk. He didnt need to do that at all. Marner also got overpaid when looking at other comparables too (not just Point).

vasilevskiy is an interesting one for sure. He did just win a vezina as a 25 year old but certainly didnt give a discount, probably fair market value. Some players just dont want to take discounts and that is to he expected. The problem arises when your players seem to want over market value and wont accept a fair contract.

Kap, AJ and Kerfoot fell right in with market comparables it seems and I doubt they would be willing to take like 30% less for the right to play in Tampa over Toronto.

It seems the majority of Tampa's top end guys are willing to take a little less to keep the band together. Taxs and warm weather probably play a part but considering how they didnt get discounts on all their players it is hard to say that is the main cause .

 

[dubplatepressure]

I would honestly say it is a bit of both, Point took a bit of a discount especially as he took a bridge that carries risk. He didnt need to do that at all. Marner also got overpaid when looking at other comparables too (not just Point).

vasilevskiy is an interesting one for sure. He did just win a vezina as a 25 year old but certainly didnt give a discount, probably fair market value. Some players just dont want to take discounts and that is to he expected. The problem arises when your players seem to want over market value and wont accept a fair contract.

Kap, AJ and Kerfoot fell right in with market comparables it seems and I doubt they would be willing to take like 30% less for the right to play in Tampa over Toronto.

It seems the majority of Tampa's top end guys are willing to take a little less to keep the band together. Taxs and warm weather probably play a part but considering how they didnt get discounts on all their players it is hard to say that is the main cause .

Well that's exactly my point then - we don't have any idea what causes this. And to that extent, we cannot just assume it's because Dubas is a negotiator's fool.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

In which I articulated a meaningful response that you never responded to. Point has a 3 year deal. So, in 3 years when the cap is 5-7 million higher and he's still a 90 pt player, he'll be asking for $13M, while we are sitting with 3 more years of Marner at $10.whateveritis. That's the play here - give 3/year now, get 3/year in 3 years. It's really not a bad move at all and continuously banging this drum that just compares AAV of these players now is kind of silly.

You just responded to something I said to another poster as if it was said to you so I'm a little confused... I also responded to everything you said??

I already showed the math that it is pretty much impossible for Point to catch Marner's earning in the next 5 years. I will copy and paste it below:

Also there is pretty much no way Point can makeup the cash on Marner in the next 6 years.

Marner makes a total of 65.348 million in 6 years.

Point makes 20.25 over 3 years and then let's say wants to rush to UFA to maximize earnings. His qualifying offer based on his base salary in the last year is 9 million so he takes a 9 million x 1 year contract to get to UFA.

Point is now at 29.25 million over 4 years. That means he would have to make 36.134 million over the next 2 seasons to catch Marner up. So unless you think Point is going to get a 18 million AAV contract there is no way he will catch Marner up.

 

[Boutette]

The reason those contracts were front loaded was not to make it easier to move in the future it was to give the players more money up front as a means to (hopefully) reduce the AAV of their contracts. It is certainly more beneficial to the player than the team. Moving Nylander or Marner at the end of their contracts when they provide the most value due to cap inflation is not the best asset management.

The fact you keep bringing up Tampa's other forwards shows you have missed the point completely. I brought up Point's contract to show Marner was definitely overpaid not to say that Tampa's dont have their own cap problems (which they obviously do).

Dermott has yet to show he can play top 4 minutes, struggles when usage is increased and he wont get a chance this year to prove he is a top 4 guy as he is buried behind Muzzin and Rielly. Letting Muzzin, the only defensively inclined defender on the team, walk for free will suck and make the team worse but it will be neccessary.

I never said the strategy the leafs are using is neccesarily bad, only time will tell. I said overpaying anyone significantly is bad and just because they are a star doesnt make it okay. It makes it easier to stomach but it is still a mistake and one that shouldnt just get swept under the rug because the leafs dont have overpaid vets on the team.

Dubas is betting on the cap rising significantly over the next few years, we all hope he is correct or the leafs depth is going to take a huge hit. That is even considering the raise Andy + Rielly will next within the next 3 years.

Its fine. We disagree. But my point was by paying Nylander and Marner half their $$$$ before even their second year makes their contracts quite valuable for many teams in the league to acquire early or late in their contracts. And we'll find out over the next few years how Dubas' strategy works out. As for Dermott, only the opportunity to be a top 4 defenseman will let up know if that's what he can be. He has had precious little opportunity so far and he'll either be an underpaid top 4 or an overpaid bottom pair player. Or we can trade for another low cost Muzzin. There are a lot of approaches and all of them come with risks. Personally, I'm a youth vs. vet kind of guy and find it hard to stomach gold plated retirement contracts.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Well that's exactly my point then - we don't have any idea what causes this. And to that extent, we cannot just assume it's because Dubas is a negotiator's fool.

I never said Dubas is a negotiators fool, that is the problem with this forum. It is so pro Dubas vs anti Dubas that you cant say anything without getting lumped into a side and treated accordingly. It is nuts.

I said you cant have Marner turning down a 8.7 x 3 when Point signs a 6.75 x 3. That is a really bad look. Then there is the fact that Marner was also overpaid when looking at other comparables too. Not saying Dubas is an idiot blah blah blah, have said the opposite multiple times today, I'm saying he overpaid Marner and that is okay to admit.

 

[Menzinger]

Issue clarification- Points MINIMUM salary after his bridge is 9 mil on a 1 year deal -he can (and would) be awarded more on a 1 year deal via his agent arguing the case during arbitration (presuming his scoring stays ppg or more)

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Its fine. We disagree. But my point was by paying Nylander and Marner half their $$$$ before even their second year makes their contracts quite valuable for many teams in the league to acquire early or late in their contracts. And we'll find out over the next few years how Dubas' strategy works out. As for Dermott, only the opportunity to be a top 4 defenseman will let up know if that's what he can be. He has had precious little opportunity so far and he'll either be an underpaid top 4 or an overpaid bottom pair player. Or we can trade for another low cost Muzzin. There are a lot of approaches and all of them come with risks. Personally, I'm a youth vs. vet kind of guy and find it hard to stomach gold plated retirement contracts.

I think that is perhaps a tertiary benefit of front loading the contact but it was not the reason they were front loaded. It was to put more money into the hands of the players right away so they could invest/spend it.

Dermott definitely hasnt got and likely wont get a long run in the leafs top 4 before his next contract. It should keep a very low AAV especially when looking around at some other young RFA defender who are considerably better players and still getting paid pretty low AAVs relatively speaking. Dermott is the perfect candidate for a steal contract as he hasnt proven to be more than a great 3rd pairing defender yet (a sheltered one at that too). I would lock him down long term (5/6 years if AAV works) if possible before he hopefully breaks out.

I agree with these big contracts to late 20s players being a bad idea. I just also think it is a bad idea to overpay your stars as well. It sounds like Marner's camp was being outlandish in their demands and so Dubas had a really tough job on his hands. He got the job done and overpaid a decent amount to make sure Marner is in the lineup for a deep playoff push with an amazing team this year. That was Marner's leverage in the end and his team won the game of chicken it seems.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Issue clarification- Points MINIMUM salary after his bridge is 9 mil on a 1 year deal -he can (and would) be awarded more on a 1 year deal via his agent arguing the case during arbitration (presuming his scoring stays ppg or more)

While this is true Point would need to get an average AAV of 15 million for the last 3 years to catch Marner in earnings over a 6 year peroid. I dont see that happening even using abritration for an increased AAV on a 1 year deal and then hitting up UFA.

 

[4thline]

The NHL feels like it's heading headlong into a situation one summer where there are going to be a slew of UFAs and RFAs who are deserving big raises on paper but there are no teams with the appropriate cap space to pay the players.

Perhaps wishful thinking on my part but imo the impact will get shifted down into the second and third tier ufa's. Stars are going to get paid, and even on bridges good rfas will get raises of a couple hundred percent. Not going to be much money left over.

 

[Menzinger]

Perhaps wishful thinking on my part but imo the impact will get shifted down into the second and third tier ufa's. Stars are going to get paid, and even on bridges good rfas will get raises of a couple hundred percent. Not going to be much money left over.

We are starting to see the first signs of that. Guys like Dion and Marleau aren't getting offers.

Teams have wised up (finally) days of mediocre vets getting 3-5 mil as ufa are over

 

[Menzinger]

While this is true Point would need to get an average AAV of 15 million for the last 3 years to catch Marner in earnings over a 6 year peroid. I dont see that happening even using abritration for an increased AAV on a 1 year deal and then hitting up UFA.

Marner will probably end up with more total money long term -but I suspect the gap will smaller than some presume.

 

[Gallagbi]

Issue clarification- Points MINIMUM salary after his bridge is 9 mil on a 1 year deal -he can (and would) be awarded more on a 1 year deal via his agent arguing the case during arbitration (presuming his scoring stays ppg or more)

What were the Marner reports for a 3-year QO? Was it 14/yr or am exaggerating? I remember there being a lot of concern over the structure and what it would end with