Trades and Free Agent Talk - A New Season A New Thread

[SprDaVE]

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[dubplatepressure]

2nd highest AAV and can't get more then 5 years on it? Pretty bad.

Brayden Point, a player that had a pt/game, scored more goals and plays a more important position signed for 6.75M x 3 years and apparently Marner turned down 9M x3 years by all accounts.

Aho, a player i'd basically consider to be on par with Marner but happens to play centre and has less impressive linemates makes 8.5M x5 yrs compared to 10.89M x6 years...the extra year is worth 2.4M aav? Aho also only got that deal because it was forced via offer sheet.

I have no problems saying it, Dubas blows when it comes to negotiating contracts with star players.

5 year deals are pretty common for players like him at his age and status though, aren't they? Same with 6 year deals.

Brayden Point is irrelevant. Tampa Bay's a totally different scenario - different team, different city, different tax structure, and frankly maybe a different outlook if Point really wanted to stay in TB whereas AM34 or Marner are less sold on the long term viability of Toronto.

Point also gets a 3 year deal and comes out of that as a free agent, no? He's also a year older than MM. Argument is if Point continues on a 90 pt pace, he's easily in $12mm-$13mm range as a FA in 3 years when the cap increases. We avoid that.

My point is, while I respect your opinion, I happen to disagree with the 'Dubas f***ed this one up' mentality. Could he have done better - maybe, yah. Maybe not though. On it's surface it doesn't look that bad to me. A whole lot better than for example splashing out on ridiculous free agent contracts like Lucic, Alzner, Shattenkirk, etc. etc.

 

[BlueForever75]

I think that the Marner contract looks like an overpay today compared to Point's contract. But keep in mind that Point's last year of his 3 year deal is worth 9 million. Which means like others have stated the next contract he gets if he continues down the road he is going will be north of 12 million a season.

With the cap going up next season and the season after that, Marner's contract will be a moot point and we will be locked in 3 more years at a reasonable rate considering others that will be resigning after their bridge deals are up. Yes it hurts today, but as the cap goes up and others sign the Leafs will be on top in all of this once again.

 

[pspot]

I think that the Marner contract looks like an overpay today compared to Point's contract. But keep in mind that Point's last year of his 3 year deal is worth 9 million. Which means like others have stated the next contract he gets if he continues down the road he is going will be north of 12 million a season.

With the cap going up next season and the season after that, Marner's contract will be a moot point and we will be locked in 3 more years at a reasonable rate considering others that will be resigning after their bridge deals are up. Yes it hurts today, but as the cap goes up and others sign the Leafs will be on top in all of this once again.

which is the way it should be, again with players like these you normally have an ELC window, bridge window, and then the full contract window. We saw it with Hawks

Dubas is trying something different...hopefully by plan

 

[thewave]

which is the way it should be, again with players like these you normally have an ELC window, bridge window, and then the full contract window. We saw it with Hawks

Dubas is trying something
different...hopefully by plan

The plan was telegraphed, break the market. Market said screw you Kyle and that's the end of that.

 

[pspot]

The plan was telegraphed, break the market. Market said screw you Kyle and that's the end of that.

to be fair we have to see it through, end of Matthews contract

 

[justafan22]

Wonder if Kaskisuo + a 6th for Jarry could be possible.

Kaskisuo would clear for the Pens and they'd get a solid AHL goalie.

Leafs would get a younger version of Hutch that's also cheaper and under team control for only a 6th.

 

[dubplatepressure]

Wonder if Kaskisuo + a 6th for Jarry could be possible.

Kaskisuo would clear for the Pens and they'd get a solid AHL goalie.

Leafs would get a younger version of Hutch that's also cheaper and under team control for only a 6th.

It sounds unnecessary.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I think that the Marner contract looks like an overpay today compared to Point's contract. But keep in mind that Point's last year of his 3 year deal is worth 9 million. Which means like others have stated the next contract he gets if he continues down the road he is going will be north of 12 million a season.

With the cap going up next season and the season after that, Marner's contract will be a moot point and we will be locked in 3 more years at a reasonable rate considering others that will be resigning after their bridge deals are up. Yes it hurts today, but as the cap goes up and others sign the Leafs will be on top in all of this once again.

The main reason we know Marner was significantly overpaid is because the leafs reportedly offered 8.7 x 3 (via Mirtle). That is almost 2 million more on a 3 year bridge and it wasnt even accepted....

It is okay to admit Dubas overpaid. Also there is pretty much no way Point can makeup the cash on Marner in the next 6 years.

Marner makes a total of 65.348 million in 6 years.

Point makes 20.25 over 3 years and then let's say wants to rush to UFA to maximize earnings. His qualifying offer based on his base salary in the last year is 9 million so he takes a 9 million x 1 year contract to get to UFA.

Point is now at 29.25 million over 4 years. That means he would have to make 36.134 million over the next 2 seasons to catch Marner up. So unless you think Point is going to get a 18 million AAV contract there is no way he will catch Marner up.

 

[dubplatepressure]

The main reason we know Marner was significantly overpaid is because the leafs reportedly offered 8.7 x 3 (via Mirtle). That is almost 2 million more on a 3 year bridge and it wasnt even accepted....

It is okay to admit Dubas overpaid. Also there is pretty much no way Point can makeup the cash on Marner in the next 6 years.

Marner makes a total of 65.348 million in 6 years.

Point makes 20.25 over 3 years and then let's say wants to rush to UFA to maximize earnings. His qualifying offer based on his base salary in the last year is 9 million so he takes a 9 million x 1 year contract to get to UFA.

Point is now at 29.25 million over 4 years. That means he would have to make 36.134 million over the next 2 seasons to catch Marner up. So unless you think Point is going to get a 18 million AAV contract there is no way he will catch Marner up.

If we were Tampa Bay, in Tampa Bay, then this would be much more relevant.

Does anyone even think that the two cities are comparable? Think about it - in Tampa Bay you have beautiful weather and summer all year round, you have much lower taxation, you have a perennial conference contender, a core of legit all-stars with no holes in their lineup, and you have relative privacy should you desire not having a camera shoved in your face 24-7 while living your life outside the rink. Frankly I can't see how anyone would think we would actually be able to pay anywhere close to the rates TB can get away with paying.

 

[Kurtz]

If we were Tampa Bay, in Tampa Bay, then this would be much more relevant.

Does anyone even think that the two cities are comparable? Think about it - in Tampa Bay you have beautiful weather and summer all year round, you have much lower taxation, you have a perennial conference contender, a core of legit all-stars with no holes in their lineup, and you have relative privacy should you desire not having a camera shoved in your face 24-7 while living your life outside the rink. Frankly I can't see how anyone would think we would actually be able to pay anywhere close to the rates TB can get away with paying.

Fair points, but we also have advantages that other cities do not. (IE: get paid in USD, spend CAD, every home game sold out, ability to play close to home for many guys, world-class city with best entertainment options in North America outside of New York, legal weed, and most opportunity to make additional revenue from ads).

It should absolutely not be a chore for guys to play on the Leafs, unless perhaps they're a star but also an introvert. And even those guys can warm up to the city - Kessel didn't want to leave, for example.

 

[dubplatepressure]

Fair points, but we also have advantages that other cities do not. (IE: get paid in USD, spend CAD, every home game sold out, ability to play close to home for many guys, world-class city with best entertainment options in North America outside of New York, legal weed, and most opportunity to make additional revenue from ads).

It should absolutely not be a chore for guys to play on the Leafs, unless perhaps they're a star but also an introvert. And even those guys can warm up to the city - Kessel didn't want to leave, for example.

Not a chore no, but want to be compensated appropriately, sure. That may in the form of a 10-20% hike on income relative to other markets.

 

[deletethis]

Weird: The New York Islanders have moved 7 home games back to the Nassau Coliseum this season.

 

[Boutette]

The main reason we know Marner was significantly overpaid is because the leafs reportedly offered 8.7 x 3 (via Mirtle). That is almost 2 million more on a 3 year bridge and it wasnt even accepted....

It is okay to admit Dubas overpaid. Also there is pretty much no way Point can makeup the cash on Marner in the next 6 years.

Marner makes a total of 65.348 million in 6 years.

Point makes 20.25 over 3 years and then let's say wants to rush to UFA to maximize earnings. His qualifying offer based on his base salary in the last year is 9 million so he takes a 9 million x 1 year contract to get to UFA.

Point is now at 29.25 million over 4 years. That means he would have to make 36.134 million over the next 2 seasons to catch Marner up. So unless you think Point is going to get a 18 million AAV contract there is no way he will catch Marner up.

Obsessing about how individual stars is pointless (pun intended). Hockey is a TEAM SPORT. Teams that nickel and dime their stars end up feeling compelled to overpay elsewhere. Yeah, the Lightning has Point on a sweet if very short term deal. And next year Vasilevsky becomes twice as expensive as Anderson. Also, they have a bunch of $5mil forwards that will do about the same work as the Leafs $3mil forwards do, and due to overpaying in the middle, it means one or two have to go every year. Take 20-21. They'll have to figure out how to put a team on ice next year while having a whole $7 mil in cap space and about 8 roster spots they are going to have to pay for. One or two among Palat, Johnson, Gourde or Kilorn are going to have to go.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

It sounds unnecessary.

Why?

I would rather give Jarry a shot. More likely to be a starter, and I like his chances of being a solid backup too. He played well two years ago when he had to replace Murray.

I think we can work something out with PIT to make it worth their while. Otherwise, he goes on waivers and we claim him. Better they get something, even if it's only a guy like Petan or Kaskisuo + pick, than nothing. And for the Leafs, especially if we don't have to give up the pick too, we can get out of a contract so we are not at 50 (like we would be if we claimed him).

 

[Jozay]

3. We’ll see if the NHL and NHLPA agree to a different number as part of negotiations, but at last week’s Board of Governors meeting, the 2020-21 cap was estimated at $84.5 million, if the players do not use any escalator at all.

From 31 Thoughts

31 Thoughts: How Brayden Point's contract impacts the RFA market - Sportsnet.ca

 

[WTFMAN99]

From 31 Thoughts

31 Thoughts: How Brayden Point's contract impacts the RFA market - Sportsnet.ca

I know they were wrong last year with their projections but that is about 1M higher then I have been using on CapFriendly when playing around, not sure if the players use the escalator at all but 84.5-86M is possible.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Wonder if Kaskisuo + a 6th for Jarry could be possible.

Kaskisuo would clear for the Pens and they'd get a solid AHL goalie.

Leafs would get a younger version of Hutch that's also cheaper and under team control for only a 6th.

Another potential option, which I did not realize until an Avs fan pointed it out to me, is that Colorado could use an AHL starter, and they have 6 open spots (well 5 if you include Rantanen). We could potentially do a deal like Kaskisuo + Luchuk/Petan/Holl for a struggling prospect with some extra term (i.e. Ty Lewis, Travis Barron, Igor Shvyryov, or any contract dump they choose) or just trade them for a conditional pick that won't convert (i.e. like the Ashton/Broll trade) so we clear up some log jams and have the contract room to just claim a guy like Jarry/Forsberg when they hit waivers. Works for both teams IMO.

 

[4thline]

The more I look at the makeup of the team the more I think a strong start from the likes of Mikeyev/Moore/Agostino/Petan and even Timashov/Korshkov (in the A likely) leads to Kapanen trade mid season.

Running
Johnsson-Matthews-Nylander
Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Mikeyev-Kerfoot-Moore
Agostino-Shore-Petan
Spezza

Rielly-Ceci
Muzzin-Barrie
Dermott- xxx
Marincin

Leaves just under 2.5 million for a D upgrade coming back in the Kapanen package. With a piece as enticing as RFA Kappy might be able to do a Muzzin/Barrie hybrid trade and get a 50% retained "Rental +1" like Yandle a few years back. Adding a 2.1 million dollar David Savard would go along way this year and next

 

[Jozay]

None of those guys are good enough to make Kapanen expendable. Plus, you'd probably want to see those guys play well for more than a half a season before you do something like that.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Obsessing about how individual stars is pointless (pun intended). Hockey is a TEAM SPORT. Teams that nickel and dime their stars end up feeling compelled to overpay elsewhere. Yeah, the Lightning has Point on a sweet if very short term deal. And next year Vasilevsky becomes twice as expensive as Anderson. Also, they have a bunch of $5mil forwards that will do about the same work as the Leafs $3mil forwards do, and due to overpaying in the middle, it means one or two have to go every year. Take 20-21. They'll have to figure out how to put a team on ice next year while having a whole $7 mil in cap space and about 8 roster spots they are going to have to pay for. One or two among Palat, Johnson, Gourde or Kilorn are going to have to go.

I'm not commenting on the lightning on a whole nor should their overpaid vets have anything to do with the leafs overpaying Marner. Point is a decent comparable to Marner (90+ points on ELC) and just signed a significantly cheaper contract than the one offered and not accepted by Marner. That is a problem.

I dont understand the line of thought whereby people basically say it is okay to overpay our stars because we dont have any bad contracts on the books. That is not a good strategy in a cap league. You try to get everyone you can locked up as cheaply as you can. Maybe one of Marner, Matthews or Nylander completely crumbles under expectations and suddenly the leafs have a brutal contract on their hands.

The leafs havent felt the repercussions of their cap crunch yet but next offseason will be a rough one. These overpayments will result in good players walking for free (Muzzin is a decent chance) or good young roster players moved for futures (one of Kap, AJ or Kerfoot perhaps if he doesnt pan out at center).

 

[Ziggdiezan]

If we were Tampa Bay, in Tampa Bay, then this would be much more relevant.

Does anyone even think that the two cities are comparable? Think about it - in Tampa Bay you have beautiful weather and summer all year round, you have much lower taxation, you have a perennial conference contender, a core of legit all-stars with no holes in their lineup, and you have relative privacy should you desire not having a camera shoved in your face 24-7 while living your life outside the rink. Frankly I can't see how anyone would think we would actually be able to pay anywhere close to the rates TB can get away with paying.

As others have mentioned there are plenty of benefits to playing and living in Toronto. There are also plenty of benefits to not living in florida, especially if you have a family.

I also think the younger generation love that attention and fame (due in part to the rise of social media) so you may see players more drawn to bigger market teams than small ones in the future.

Personally I would hate to live in a place without winter but that is a personal opinion.

 

[nobody]

Weird: The New York Islanders have moved 7 home games back to the Nassau Coliseum this season.

Not really weird. Barclay's gets no action from fans. It's an empty house on most home games. Atleast at Nassau they have their actual diehards show up. Their management was beyond stupid to move the arena into Brooklyn downtown. Nassau county is way too far a commute for any reasonable fan to make.

 

[RoyalCitySlicker]

I dont understand the line of thought whereby people basically say it is okay to overpay our stars because we dont have any bad contracts on the books. That is not a good strategy in a cap league. You try to get everyone you can locked up as cheaply as you can.

You're not wrong, in theory. Ideally, the goal is to have everyone on a value contract...to pay everyone as little as possible.

In reality though, all managers make mistakes...all of them. Some more than others for sure, but the point is every team is going to have some bad contracts....it's unavoidable. In that reality, I'd rather have my best players (star players) earning too much rather than the middle tier or the 4th liners....they are easier to move, especially when you bonus them out so heavily up front.

It is what it is. No one is perfect.

 

[4thline]

None of those guys are good enough to make Kapanen expendable. Plus, you'd probably want to see those guys play well for more than a half a season before you do something like that.

None of them are likely good enough to make Kapanen expendable as a 2RW, they don't have the offensive upside. As a permanently blocked 3RW? different story.