2019 Blues - 26% of cap in top 3 players Tarasenko, ROR, Pietrangelo... 41% in top 5 (steen, paryako)
2018 Capitals - 31% in top 3 (Ovie, Kuznetzonv, Backstrom... ~47% in top 5 (hotlby, niskanen)
2017 Pens - 37% in top 3 (Sid, Geno, Letang)... ~49% in top 5 (Kessel, fleury) *actually higher but LTIR was a big factor.
2016 Pens - 34% & 52%
i'm curious as to what you consider to be "top heavy" salary cap vs you're preferable split?
3 of 4 past cup winners of last few years all had btw 47-52% of cap tied up in top 5 players? (blues the anomaly at 41%... with 7 roster players (4 ELC players and 3 other regulars) on <1M$ deals, including binnington).
3 of 4 had over 30% in their top 3 (with the blues, again, being the anomaly).
in those 4 years (where we made the PO only once) we were at:
30% & 43% - 96pt
26% & 40% - 71 pt
27% & 43% - 102 pt
29% & 44% - 82pt
no idea how that stacks us up to league-wide ranges... i would imagine that the PO team averages skew a bit higher, closer to the cup winners of 45%+, but no time to check that out.
ultimately, the key is the ability to have elite talent in key areas (net, top-4, top-6) while filling out the roster with balanced depth to navigate the season & playoff grind.
The "top-heavy" model, if your top players are elite and well set up for success (unlike how MB has positioned Price/Weber the past few seasons) clearly works.
We, with Suzuki, JKO, Mete, Romanov?, and Danault/Gallagher/Tatar/Lekhonen/Petry all on deals paying them well below their contribution levels, would've been perfectly positioned to go top-heavy on the 2 elite level talents we need to balance out our roster (top-line W and top-pairing LD)... Unfortunately, we blew our cap space to aggressively do so for this year on Allen/Edmundson, and now don't have the flexibility to straight up add (Hall/Pietrangelo) or trade using cap space as an asset...
with all of the vets listed above up for raises next summer, that window is closed and now it's got to be a 2-3 year window, which means our heaviest cap hits will be that much further away from their prime, and the ELC benefits will be gone.
Effective cap/roster management remains the key, moreso than top-heavy/balanced... imo
The top heavy is about talent more than cap hit. Habs are in a position with vets and good young talent on ELC/Bridge deals. This is why I say we need to make moves now. Price/Weber sill effective and Suzuki, Kotkaniemi, Romanov, and then Caufield on ELC/Bridge deals for the next 3-5 years.
In 5+ years, the money will move around if those kids are who we think they are. There is no salary graft or cheat sheet to use on a correct model. It's all about cap projections of what you have under contract and ones coming. We have done a good job at improving our youth and like I said... Vets still here. Price, Weber, Petry, Gallagher, Tatar. We are in a good spot to move up in that 3-5 year span. After 3 years, Weber retires and you reevaluate then
I don't have a Goalie, Defense, Forward preferable split. It's about what you have and how it projects forward. If you want to know where we fall with the rest of the NHL? This site will help you..
NHL 2020 Cap Tracker. And remember, Suzuki and KK are on ELC/Bridge deals for a few years yet. Gallagher, Tatar, Danault, Domi will get raises. Then add the missing winger with size/scoring we are looking for. Our cap space will be spent more on forwards moving forward.
If we don't do anything else but give contracts to Domi, Juulsen, and Mete, that creates a 23 man roster. We would be sitting at around $75M and I'm not counting Alzner for this exercise
Goalies:
* $14.85M/$75.19M = 19.75%
* 2/23 man roster = 9%
* Skewed number due to Allen for one year. This will drop down to 14% or lower after this next season
Defense:
* $24.93M/$75.19M = 33.16%
* 8/23 man roster = 35%
* This is pretty much set for a few years.
Forwards:
* $35.41M/$75.19M = 47.09%
* 13/23 man roster = 56%
* This will be a moving target and any cap space we have will be spent on forwards.
Basically, when Allen is off the books, Primeau is the back-up, Alzner is gone, and we add that winger with size/scoring... We will be about 5% over the averages on Goalies and 5% under on forwards. We are not that skewed as people think. And as time moves forward, others will catch us with goalie salaries while we spend that space on forwards or D
End Result: There is no salary graft or cheat sheet to use on a correct model. It's about what you have and the timing of when contracts expire vs how much good young talent you can insert on ELC/bridge deals.
