A few things to take from your post:
1) I whole heartedly agree that we need a defender, but the money won't make it possible, and we'll likely have to decide between top 4 D or top 6 F.
2) The Senators need to invest in an F instead for the following reasons:
i. We have more "proven talent" on defense. Chabot is a clear cut top 15 defender in the game, imo. And he has proven to play among the best of the best in his position. Therefore, he is up and away our most reliable and proven asset.
ii. Zub is a legit top 4 defender, and that means we have 2 crucial pieces out of 4.
iii. I truly expect Sanderson to come in and, conservatively, play a top 4 position, even if not upper echelon the way Makar, Heiskanen, Seider, Fox, McAvoy and other similar defenders had impacts right away. I think he will have that similar impact, but conservatively let's just say a steady/good top 4 the way Drysdale's been.
iv. Holden has proven that he and Zub alone can formulate an effective 2nd-type pairing. At worst, Holden is an excellent bottom pair.
v. That means we have 1 elite number 1 defender. 1 legit top 4. 1 solid top 4 and 1 middle top 4.
iv. On offense, we are ridiculously younger and even more unproven. Guys like Stutzle, Formenton are still trying to truly cement their positions as bonafide top 6ers. Realistically, Formenton is still on our 3rd line.
iiv. The forward group looks to Connor Brown as their reliable veteran when they need bigger man's game for offensive support, as the young guys still exhibit a lot of weak forward strength due to immature bodies/young. That's why we have seen Paul play significant minutes in top 6.
iiiv. The forwards need a leader to help elevate them to next level because I think guys like Tkachuk and Stutzle still need guidance themselves, and they still prone to make very prone boneheaded teenage mistakes that a veteran will fix. When I see Tkachuk play 2-3 minutes of OT I cringe quite a bit. But who's going to reel him in/mentor him?
ix. Brannstrom and Thomson have shown capability to take the next step, and have played over 23 minutes of ice-time each and shown that they cannot be held back anymore, and need ice-time.
This is the key right here. Patience. Although, I think if Giroux becomes available for free, we are ALL over that on a 3 year deal. Free asset that's a top liner , who still has gas left, and will be imperative to the mentorship of young leadership core.
That will allow us to retain our top prospects and hope one/two of
Our selection in 2022(if forward)/Greig/Sokolov/Jarventie/or 2021/2022 picks
Give us invaluable impact on their ELC's or are either ripe enough to replace Giroux and be that missing young piece to our core, or we pounce on the next best thing with deep prospect capital.
I don't agree about Giroux. If we were ready to contend now or even next year, sure, but it seems we're still a couple years away. The way you put it sounds great, but if the money spent on Giroux is blocking us from making a better long-term acquistion, it's no good. Maybe I'm wrong and he still has three elite years left, but it's not a risk I want to take.
You raise a lot of good points regarding the forward/defense debate, but honestly the whole thing is of secondary importance. What's most important - what wins Stanley Cups - is having as many really good players as possible, and in the cap era, to do so means some of them have to be signed to really good contracts. I was thinking about it, and realized as far as player age, about 25 to 27 is going to be the sweet spot; anything younger than that and it would make more sense to rebuilding teams to hold on to the player (except maybe Arizona), and anything much older doesn't make sense for the Sens' situation. I thought it would be fun to do a list of the players who have been brought up here (by myself or others) as potentially available targets, in order from least to most desirable. Plus I added a couple new names.
11. Josh Anderson - I like the player enough, and he fits the team philosophy, but he's not the difference-maker I'm looking for. The thing the Sens have in abundance is assets, salary maybe not so much. Anderson would be cheaper in terms of assets but expensive in terms of salary. It just doesn't make sense.
10. Vince Dunn - Good player, but again, just not really the difference-maker I'm looking for.
9. Tomas Hertl - Now we're getting into difference-maker territory. Downsides being he is 28 (maybe not a deal-breaker) and he is going to need a gargantuan contract (deal-breaker).
8. Ivan Provorov - Age and contract term make him a better fit than Toffoli or Severson. Cap hit and positional need put a damper on things. Would be a bit too much money spent on two left-side Ds.
7. Claude Giroux
t6. Tyler Toffoli - More of a difference-maker than Anderson or Dunn, but he's not the guy that's going to put you over the top. Will be 30 in April and only two years left on his contract after this one. Just doesn't make a ton of sense. Wouldn't be the worst acquisition, but far from idea.
t6. Damon Severson - Roughly similar quality player to Toffoli. Both fill a positional need in RW and RD. Severson has the advantage of being a couple years younger, but the disadvantage of one less year on his contract.
4. Adam Pelech - Similar situation to Provorov, but a better player. A little older, but longer term and lower cap hit.
3. Ryan Pulock - Not as good an all-round defenseman as Pelech, but slightly lower cap hit, more offensive upside, and he's a right shot.
2. Jakub Chychrun - Unlike with Provorov and Pelech, his cap hit is low enough that it makes complete sense to have him playing behind Chabot. Locked up with enough term to be an absolutely invaluable piece for the first couple years of our intended contention window.
1. Travis Konecny - He's a difference-maker. Fills a need on the RW. Very solid contract for three more years after this one. Young enough to be part of the core for a long time. Likely the soonest he could possibly be available would be trade deadline next season, but by then he'll be almost 26, so fits into that "sweet spot" age I mentioned earlier.