1 - Senators acquire Matt Murray for Marcus Hogberg/33rd Overall/B-Level Asset (Late 2nd, or a prospect, or a 2021 2nd)
2 - Penguins re-sign Marcus Hogberg (2-3 years, a bit above 1 million)
The Penguins made a similar move with Casey DeSmith. We've seen other teams also do this with tweener goalies. The benefit is, almost their entire cap hit can be buried in the AHL, but if they make the NHL they provide cheap stability in net. Unless Hogberg is extremely confident, he probably doesn't turn down this contract. It would be security, and it is market value for a goalie with his resume.
3 - Senators extend Matt Murray (3 years 5.5 million AAV)
The Senators sign Murray to a back loaded contract, 10 team no trade clause in the two UFA years. 5.5 is just a guess. If you think it should be 5.1, 5.7, 4.9, whatever. The premise is still the same. They go with a shorter deal in that AAV range. This allows Murray to re-assert himself as a top goalie and set up for a big UFA contract at 29 years old. It allows the Senators to avoid the risk of a long term deal with a goalie who has had some injury issues.
4 - Anders Nilsson backs up Matt Murray for the 2020-21 season. Gustavsson or Daccord possibly called up later on.
No one is taking Nilsson off of our hands. His cap hit is a bit too high for what he brings, and he is coming back from injuries. If he is unable to recover from his concussions in time for the season, the Senators would have to consider keeping Hogberg in the trade with Pittsburgh. I could see Gustavsson or Daccord getting games in at some point in the season since injuries do happen.
5 - Seattle possibly selects one of Gustavsson or Daccord, the other graduates to the NHL for the 2021-22 season.
The Senators would protect Matt Murray in the expansion draft. Assuming Gustavsson and Daccord have similar value internally, losing one doesn't matter. There is no guarantee that Seattle selects a goalie from the Senators, but projecting forward, they might be our most valuable unprotected players. Unless one of these two has big value league wide, it doesn't make sense to trade either to hedge against expansion since we have to lose one player anyways.