Proposal: Trade Rumours/Proposals 2019-20 Part VII

[Sweatred]

Tampa wouln't do that trade unless it's involved a 1st and (?) 1 of JBD/Brannstrom

What trades would you do if Sens don't really want to draft Askarov.

He can just be offer sheeted and comp will be a 1+2+3. That’s a lot less than JBD/Brann plus a 1RD. The offer sheet compensation package probably takes 2-3+ years to materialize and Tampa may be out of their competitive cycle. I think they would have a lot of interest in a young piece that can step in now and doesn’t need expansion protection plus some future lottery picks.

 

[guyzeur]

I think we're going to make a ton of trades. Whether they happen directly on draft day, or a few days before/after, doesn't really matter. I could see this being a very busy off season because the Senators are going to have a great opportunity to take a step forward in the rebuild. They will be able to poach talent from cap strapped teams. These should be players who prior to the COVID-19 flat cap, may not have been made available.

1 - Acquire a star player from a cap strapped team using three valuable future pieces (picks/prospects). Maybe Sergachev.

2 - Trade Tierney. This was already announced by A-GM Garrioch. I'm not sure what kind of value he has. Maybe it ends up being more of a hockey trade with a veteran defenseman coming back to Ottawa.

3 - Move up in the draft, multiple times. The Senators can't develop/sign the amount of prospects they will have if they use every pick in 2020 and 2021. They need to consolidate these picks either by moving up to get prospects on a higher tier of their draft list, or by acquiring good players from teams with cap trouble.

4 - Acquire veterans with low base salaries/high cap hits. It won't happen directly at the draft because signing bonuses will need to be paid by the other teams. Seeds could be planted at the draft though. It is possible for a two part trade like the one Toronto made when they acquired Andersen from ANA, and sent them Bernier later on after his bonus was paid. Derek Stepan from ARZ would be an example.

5 - (Darkhorse) Acquire a legitimate starting goalie at the draft. Matt Murray is the biggest name we know is available. I don't think Hogberg is our goalie of the future, and a Hogberg/Nilsson tandem won't cut it next season. The Senators need a legitimate starter who can play 50+ games and give them a chance to win in most of them. This might be the best market to buy a goalie because of the strength of the UFA crop, and teams with two valuable goalies looking to hedge against the Seattle expansion draft next season.

1. About star player Sergachev, do you know where HFB rank him among Ds? Top 50?
2. If he's traded it's probably at next trade deadline
3. Maybe twice
4.I agree
5.Ok for Murray but I think if 1 goalie goes, it will be Nilsson. Would it be possible that while we acquire Murray or a goalie like Murray that he would be traded at 2021 TDL? Because Melnyk...

 

[aragorn]

Tampa wouldn't do that trade unless it's involved a 1st and (?) 1 of JBD/Brannstrom

What trades would you do if Sens don't really want to draft Askarov.

IMO they don't really need to make a trade & could hold fast until after the draft to see what they have. I already think they have 6 top 9 forwards & one elite defencemen. For example, if they are able to acquire Byfield a centre along with a top 6 forward, that's two potential pieces for another good future line & really only need to find a complimentary piece later. They have plenty of players to fill in the bottom line.

If they are able to draft two good defencemen at #21 & #33 that could potentially play as a 2nd future pairing. Now all they need to do is find a future 3rd pairing on defence which they might be able to do in the 2nd or 3rd rd or in next yr's draft & add another couple of forwards for depth. IMO they already have ten good future players in their org & need to find another ten good players to fill in a future roster plus some depth & some good AHL players. But to answer your original question acquiring a good young player like Sergachev to play with Chabot would be a great first step for the future of this team, but I'd make the deal after the draft. I'm not a fan of most of the D they have in their org right now with the exception of Chabot & JBD & would like to see that position strengthened.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Vegas re-signs Reaves. 2YRs @ 1.75M per.

Damn. Would have loved him over Sabourin as the 4th line enforcer. Would have easily paid him 2.5-3M for the same term to play that role.

 

[Cosmix]

Vegas re-signs Reaves. 2YRs @ 1.75M per.

Damn. Would have loved him over Sabourin as the 4th line enforcer. Would have easily paid him 2.5-3M for the same term to play that role.

The Senators are a low budget team so we get low cost players. Small Canadian market plus an owner with declining fortune.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

Vegas re-signs Reaves. 2YRs @ 1.75M per.

Damn. Would have loved him over Sabourin as the 4th line enforcer. Would have easily paid him 2.5-3M for the same term to play that role.

I'd easily do that too.

Guy is a beast

 

[Sweatred]

Vegas re-signs Reaves. 2YRs @ 1.75M per.

Damn. Would have loved him over Sabourin as the 4th line enforcer. Would have easily paid him 2.5-3M for the same term to play that role.

Sunshine, taxes, and restaurants.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

I want Matt Martin. He’d be gorgeous on our 4th line. Might be too expensive for our 4th line tho.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

All these players some of you want will not want to come here outside of being offered an overpayment.

Stop looking at other teams and think those contracts are an option for us.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

All these players some of you want will not want to come here outside of being offered an overpayment.

Stop looking at other teams and think those contracts are an option for us.

Why dont you think we'll overpay? We've done so consistently: Kovalev, Legwand, Hainsey... its pretty much the only instance in which we acquire UFAs.

 

[Crosside]

Matt Murray have unsubscribe are instagram with the Pens. Come on down

 

[GCK]

Matt Murray have unsubscribe are instagram with the Pens. Come on down

No thanks. He’s not very good but will want to be paid like a top tier starter.

 

[DaveMatthew]

No thanks. He’s not very good but will want to be paid like a top tier starter.

Matt Murray is one year older than Marcus Hogberg and has 117 wins and a .914 SV% across 5 NHL seasons. He's won 2 Stanley Cups and his career playoff SV% is .921.

He had a bad year last year, but he's a top-end goalie.

 

[JungleBeat]

Depends what Murray would want long term.

 

[GCK]

Matt Murray is one year older than Marcus Hogberg and has 117 wins and a .914 SV% across 5 NHL seasons. He's won 2 Stanley Cups and his career playoff SV% is .921.

He had a bad year last year, but he's a top-end goalie.

I disagree. He wasn’t very good the year before either particularly in the playoffs. Concussion history is also a concern. He will take assets to acquire and likely be paid more than 5M with term. I would not go anywhere near him.

 

[DaveMatthew]

I disagree. He wasn’t very good the year before either particularly in the playoffs. Concussion history is also a concern. He will take assets to acquire and likely be paid more than 5M with term. I would not go anywhere near him.

For a team that is in no way hurting for cap space, and one that will be incredibly young over the next 2-3 years, having a guy with his pedigree and track record back there would do wonders, IMO.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Matt Murray have unsubscribe are instagram with the Pens. Come on down

It has been out there for a while that the Penguins are going to trade a goalie, and most people have assumed it is Murray. Murray is arbitration eligible. With the flat cap, they can't waste 4M+ on what will be one goalie in a 1A/1B type tandem with Jarry.

No thanks. He’s not very good but will want to be paid like a top tier starter.

I don't know if this will be the case.

I think with his new team, he will go 3 years in the 5.5 million range. No team is giving him franchise goalie money because he has question marks with his injury history and recent play. At the same time, he has a very high ceiling if he puts it back together. It makes more sense for him to sign something in the mid-term and hope that his performance reaches its previous highs, and that the cap begins to rise again.

If he goes 3-4 years, he still gets security, but he also sets himself up to be a free agent at 29-30. If he is one of the top goalies in the league, he'll get 7-8 years at 8-10 million.

Depends what Murray would want long term.

The John Gibson contract would be the best comparable (8 years 6.4 million), but I doubt both Murray, and whoever is his new team will want to go 8 years. Murray risks signing low performance wise, and leaving a crazy amount of money on the table, and his new team risks locking in a goalie who has injury history and who they've never seen play in their system.

Locking Murray in at 8 years would be a high risk/high reward franchise changing move. I don't think anybody is taking that risk when they can go shorter term.

The spread for goalie AAVs is not that large. There are goalies like Price, Bobrovsky, and Lundqvist who received huge cap hit percentages, but otherwise the difference isn't that great. The 18th highest AAV for a goalie is about 5 million, and the 6th highest is only 1.4 million more at 6.4 million. Term is the bigger issue with goalies than AAV, because their performance can fluctuate.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

1 - Senators acquire Matt Murray for Marcus Hogberg/33rd Overall/B-Level Asset (Late 2nd, or a prospect, or a 2021 2nd)

2 - Penguins re-sign Marcus Hogberg (2-3 years, a bit above 1 million)
The Penguins made a similar move with Casey DeSmith. We've seen other teams also do this with tweener goalies. The benefit is, almost their entire cap hit can be buried in the AHL, but if they make the NHL they provide cheap stability in net. Unless Hogberg is extremely confident, he probably doesn't turn down this contract. It would be security, and it is market value for a goalie with his resume.

3 - Senators extend Matt Murray (3 years 5.5 million AAV)
The Senators sign Murray to a back loaded contract, 10 team no trade clause in the two UFA years. 5.5 is just a guess. If you think it should be 5.1, 5.7, 4.9, whatever. The premise is still the same. They go with a shorter deal in that AAV range. This allows Murray to re-assert himself as a top goalie and set up for a big UFA contract at 29 years old. It allows the Senators to avoid the risk of a long term deal with a goalie who has had some injury issues.

4 - Anders Nilsson backs up Matt Murray for the 2020-21 season. Gustavsson or Daccord possibly called up later on.
No one is taking Nilsson off of our hands. His cap hit is a bit too high for what he brings, and he is coming back from injuries. If he is unable to recover from his concussions in time for the season, the Senators would have to consider keeping Hogberg in the trade with Pittsburgh. I could see Gustavsson or Daccord getting games in at some point in the season since injuries do happen.

5 - Seattle possibly selects one of Gustavsson or Daccord, the other graduates to the NHL for the 2021-22 season.
The Senators would protect Matt Murray in the expansion draft. Assuming Gustavsson and Daccord have similar value internally, losing one doesn't matter. There is no guarantee that Seattle selects a goalie from the Senators, but projecting forward, they might be our most valuable unprotected players. Unless one of these two has big value league wide, it doesn't make sense to trade either to hedge against expansion since we have to lose one player anyways.

 

[Silencio]

Matt Murray have unsubscribe are instagram with the Pens. Come on down

If you can't beat him, sign him?

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Why dont you think we'll overpay? We've done so consistently: Kovalev, Legwand, Hainsey... its pretty much the only instance in which we acquire UFAs.

It is more that a lot of the people saying "man what a great deal, I wish we could have got him signed to that contract" are also the people who endlessly moan about less than optimal contracts.

If they want that player, they ain't getting him for the deal signed in freaking Nevada.

 

[Sweatred]

It is more that a lot of the people saying "man what a great deal, I wish we could have got him signed to that contract" are also the people who endlessly moan about less than optimal contracts.

If they want that player, they ain't getting him for the deal signed in freaking Nevada.

In many ways we should never sign another above average UFA again. We are giving away 0-50% of value on location (taxes, weather). Add that to what ever inherent negative value exists with retirement contracts and it is an extremely inefficient way to build out a roster. The EK contract has 25-50% of negative value, same as Duschene. We will miss the odd good-elite season but we should be able to put more value back into the pipeline with picks and prospects. Those young players will be all to happy to play themselves out of Ottberia and land in SJ, Vegas, or Tampa. We can take a few good years and recycle.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

In many ways we should never sign another above average UFA again. We are giving away 0-50% of value on location (taxes, weather). Add that to what ever inherent negative value exists with retirement contracts and it is an extremely inefficient way to build out a roster. The EK contract has 25-50% of negative value, same as Duschene. We will miss the odd good-elite season but we should be able to put more value back into the pipeline with picks and prospects. Those young players will be all to happy to play themselves out of Ottberia and land in SJ, Vegas, or Tampa. We can take a few good years and recycle.

This will need to be the way forward for sure for any hope to have a shot some years.

Use em and then move em, proactively.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

In many ways we should never sign another above average UFA again. We are giving away 0-50% of value on location (taxes, weather). Add that to what ever inherent negative value exists with retirement contracts and it is an extremely inefficient way to build out a roster. The EK contract has 25-50% of negative value, same as Duschene. We will miss the odd good-elite season but we should be able to put more value back into the pipeline with picks and prospects. Those young players will be all to happy to play themselves out of Ottberia and land in SJ, Vegas, or Tampa. We can take a few good years and recycle.

I'll take improved chances at a Stanley Cup if it means we have to take on or sign a not so great contract (maybe not an 8 year deal though)

People make way too much of a big deal over a player who is slightly overpaid. Obviously you don't want too many and you also have to time it right (we rushed into trading for and signing Ryan for example)

Who gives a f*** about a not optimal contract outside of HF?

 

[Sweatred]

I'll take improved chances at a Stanley Cup if it means we have to take on or sign a not so great contract (maybe not an 8 year deal though)

People make way too much of a big deal over a player who is slightly overpaid. Obviously you don't want too many and you also have to time it right (we rushed into trading for and signing Ryan for example)

Who gives a f*** about a not optimal contract outside of HF?

But you won’t get that ... EK and MD are already boat anchors, who knows where Stone be in 1-2 years. Those contracts would have dry docked our organization for 8 years.

It’s repeated over and over and unfortunately we are showing up with the least amount of money for the least popular destination.

If you army is smaller than your enemy you don’t choose a conventional form of battle.

If you have a $70 million dollar payroll with $20 million of dead money on it your trying to win with $50 million of effective payroll (value).

Your competition has a $80 million payroll with $70 of effective values. You have to beat them in a 7 game series.

Get a team of 25 years old running the through walls trying to earn triple digit UFA contracts and you may have a $70 payroll playing like a $100 million payroll.

You break some fans hearts and get called some nasty names ... reread the EK posts for an idea of how incorrect fans can be. We find out in 9 days officially how great of an idea trading EK was.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

But you won’t get that ... EK and MD are already boat anchors, who knows where Stone be in 1-2 years. Those contracts would have dry docked our organization for 8 years.

It’s repeated over and over and unfortunately we are showing up with the least amount of money for the least popular destination.

If you army is smaller than your enemy you don’t choose a conventional form of battle.

If you have a $70 million dollar payroll with $20 million of dead money on it your trying to win with $50 million of effective payroll (value).

Your competition has a $80 million payroll with $70 of effective values. You have to beat them in a 7 game series.

Get a team of 25 years old running the through walls trying to earn triple digit UFA contracts and you may have a $70 payroll playing like a $100 million payroll.

You break some fans hearts and get called some nasty names ... reread the EK posts for an idea of how incorrect fans can be. We find out in 9 days officially how great of an idea trading EK was.

We traded EK in no small part because we never properly rebuilt after 2007, his injury history, his age and the fact that we were going nowhere fast.

That shouldn't lead anyone reasonable to apply a hardline rule of "no UFAs ever".