The Colin White contract isn't a fair comparison. Colin White was not paid for the player he was, but for the player he projects to be. At 21/22 years old, White played a top 6 role and pretty much matched the career year production wise Connor Brown just had as a 25/26 years old. Brown was taking on much tougher match ups and playing with worse linemates, so I am cognizant that his season last year was much better than White's 2019 season that got him the contract. But again, the point is, Brown is the player he is going to be for the rest of his career. White was paid based on potential to improve on that season.
There is no way Brown is getting 4.75, especially not with all the uncertainty around the salary cap. The Senators also have been very conservative with retaining UFAs in their mid/late 20s or beyond. To me, it is logical to make the same assumption that some people made with Pageau. Which is, if Brown stays, it will only be on a team friendly contract, because that is how the Senators seem to be rolling.
So I could see a 3 year deal in the mid 3 millions. It would give Brown some security with the COVID-19 situation, but he'd also become a UFA at 29, which would put him in a position to get another contract. It would get the money off the books in time for the Senators to pay some of their upcoming prospects. Outside of stars (basically just Tkachuk at this point), or cheap RFA bridge deals, it would not surprise me to see the Senators set up their contracts so that they are off the books in 3 years or less. Whoever they take in this draft twice at the top will potentially need huge raises by that time.
