RAFI BOMB
Registered User
- May 11, 2016
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Contracts and the salary cap really complicate deals like that. Laine is a good player and most teams would hope to get a player as good as Laine with the 3rd overall pick. On initial glance it stands to reason that most teams would part with the pick for Laine because a proven thing is better than an uncertain thing. But once we factor in contracts and the cap it makes the value assessment more complicated.
Looking at Laine's contract he has 1 year remaining with a $6.75m cap hit and $7.5m in actual salary after that he is an RFA. He is only 22 now and normally a player can't become a UFA until they are 27 but the CBA also stipulates that a player can become a UFA if they have played 7 full season in the NHL. Laine has already played 4 seasons so instead of being able to retain his rights for 5 more seasons his rights can only be retained for 3 more seasons. He is also arbitration eligible so at the end of his current contract if he doesn't like what he is being offered he can force the organization to go through arbitration in which an arbitrator decides the compensation and the team is forced to accept the deal or let the player become a UFA. If Laine didn't want to stick with a team long term he could force arbitration twice and be a UFA after the next 3 seasons.
Laine will likely get between $8m to $10m cap hit with actual salary being greater than that and he will likely receive a few million in signing bonuses. From a production standpoint he will cost the market rate for a 30 goal scoring 70 point producing player, so as an organization there is no added value of having a player produce well above their contract cost. Also there is always a risk that a player like that produces below their contract cost.
Alternatively, let's look at the 3rd overall pick. A team has 3 seasons to offer them a contract but most likely they would be offered a contract right away. They will sign a 3 year entry level contract which has a maximum value of $925,000 and a maximum in bonuses of $2.85m. A team can slide the contract for 2 seasons, which means a team can keep the player in juniors for 2 seasons and no burn a single year of their ELC. If they turn professional the ELC is a 2 way contract so if the prospect spends any time in the AHL they will be paid a small fraction of what they will receive in the NHL. The team retains their rights until the player turns 27 or has played 7 full seasons in the NHL.
Let's say that the 3rd overall pick is able to play right away and is able to perform like other top picks. Laine was the 2nd overall pick in his draft, turned professional right away and ended the season with 73 GP 36 G 28 A 64 PTS. Brady Tkachuk was the 4th overall pick, he turned professional right away and ended the season with 71 GP 22 G 23 A 45 PTS. So it is possible that a top 3 or so pick could turn pro right away a put up something in the range of 20 to 40 goals and 50 to 70 points. There is no guarantee of that but it is possible. That isn't that far off from what Laine normally produces. His production has fluctuated a bit but you can reasonably expect around 30+ goals and 60+ points.
So it is possible that a top 3 pick could end up with comparable or slightly inferior production to Laine as soon as next season. The Sens would be guaranteed another 6 seasons with the top 3 pick after that whereas they would only be guaranteed 2 more seasons with Laine. The top 3 pick would cost next to nothing in salary cap and actual salary whereas Laine would cost the market rate.
If a team was very confident they could get Laine signed long term and was very skeptical about the upside of the top prospects in the draft or was in a win now mode maybe they would make that trade. Given the current situation of the Sens I don't think they would consider that kind of deal.
