The best is Columbus miss the playoff and win the 4 or 5 pick. I don t think Duchene sign with Columbus if he made the playoff
Lottery only gives them pick 1, 2, or 3. All of which are protected.
There are only about 17 or 18 games of the season left for most teams. Columbus already has 75 points.
To put that 75 points into perspective, a team with 75 points would have picked 7th based on last year's standings pre-lottery. Standings differ year to year, but the point is, even if CBJ loses every single game remaining, we're at best getting a pick in the low top 10 ball park, not anything near top 4 or 5.
That would still be a great pick, but again it would require CBJ losing every game which is incredibly unlikely. Looking at how the standings have clustered, the absolutely best pick we'll get is about 10th overall and that would require every other team behind CBJ catching up on a 7+ point gap. CBJ is 5 points ahead the next worst non playoff team and they have a game in hand, there's a huge gap. If they miss the playoffs, odds are the pick is in the same ballpark as if they make the playoffs. There's pretty much no upside for the Senators if CBJ misses compared to the upside of CBJ making it and being able to convince Duchene to stay.