Rumor: Trade Rumors/Proposals 2018-2019 (Part 5)

[TkachukNorris79]

@darrendreger : Talks between Duchene camp and the Sens expected to continue this week. The range for Duchene on 8 yr term is believed to be between $65 and $75 mil. So, either in the 8’s or 9+ aav. Still ballpark discussions.

Hopefully they meet in the middle and then sign Stone. We then put all this behind us and concentrate on selling:
Ceci, Anderson and Dzingel at this trade deadline.

Smith, Boedker and Tierney next trade deadline or during the summer.

Ohhh and new ownership.

I'm on this boat as well. Honestly, I'd deal Tierney now if the right deal was offered. But an more with fine than keeping him.

Boedker needs to go and Smith can stay as a 4th liner if he needs to. If someone wants him, then deal him.

We can be set up pretty well for the future with the right returns on Ceci/Dzingel/Anderson.

 

[richmh77]

The plan you mention right there makes a good case for Duchene not wanting to sign.

Except the new ownership part.

Solid point. If you’re keeping Duchene and he agrees to stay, you’re not selling him on making the playoffs next year. You’re saying we’re doing everything with 2020-2021 season in mind of being one of the best young teams in the league and hopefully a solid playoff contender in 2021-2022.

All the guys I mentioned won’t be part of that core group.

As for the guys I mentioned this year:

I believe Ceci can be replaced fairly easy and is a non-issue for Duchene.
Anderson you’re basically trading him to allow him to chase a cup in his final couple years, but if he wants to be a number 1 and stay, I have no issues with that, not sure his value will be high trade wise anyways.

Dzingel is where I see your point. They seem to get along and Duchene probably enjoys playing with younger players but doesn’t want to carry 2 rookie during his prime years, but hopefully Dorion can sell to Duchene that the return will be greater in the long run.

The other 3 are bottom 6 guys and by this time next year you might have White/Duchene/Pageau/(Brown/Norris/Chlapik) down the middle. No use for Tierney and Smith in the long run.

 

[Micklebot]

I hope we can re-sign Stone and Duchene. There are other ways to cut player costs if it's needed, Ryan, Smith, and Boedker are all having decent bounce back years and could likely be moved albeit not for a great return, and in Ryan's case, we'd likely need to eat up to half his salary retained.

If we managed to move out Smith and Boedker with no salary coming back, that frees up 6.25 mil minus the two replacement players (Chlapik and Formenton would combine for around 1.5).

Move Ryan 50% retained, and that frees up another 3.75 mins a replacement player (Batherson would be 730k)

Move out Dzingel, we save 2.1, Brown eats up 925k

That's ~8 mil saved to extend those two, which is well more than enough.

Tkachuk-Duchene-Batherson
Chlapik-White-Stone
Formenton-Tierney-Pageau
Paul-Brown-Paajarvi

Not ideal, but far better than losing both Stone and Duchene

 

[richmh77]

I hope we can re-sign Stone and Duchene. There are other ways to cut player costs if it's needed, Ryan, Smith, and Boedker are all having decent bounce back years and could likely be moved albeit not for a great return, and in Ryan's case, we'd likely need to eat up to half his salary retained.

If we managed to move out Smith and Boedker with no salary coming back, that frees up 6.25 mil minus the two replacement players (Chlapik and Formenton would combine for around 1.5).

Move Ryan 50% retained, and that frees up another 3.75 mins a replacement player (Batherson would be 730k)

Move out Dzingel, we save 2.1, Brown eats up 925k

That's ~8 mil saved to extend those two, which is well more than enough.

Tkachuk-Duchene-Batherson
Chlapik-White-Stone
Formenton-Tierney-Pageau
Paul-Brown-Paajarvi

Not ideal, but far better than losing both Stone and Duchene

Agreed. Also management probably sees it this way as well. If they dont want to lose even more attendance and revenue, they need to sell hope and atleast some entertainment. Duchene and Stone sell tickets not Boedker, Ryan, Tierney and Smith.

That being said, that’s from the managements perspective. Duchene and Stone want to have to stay... that’s why i believe they’ll overpay and rightfully so.

 

[DJB]

This Philly thing has had me wondering all day. We’d have to be taking back cap and it would have to be a big trade. Duchene feels like a candidate here.

I wonder if we could get Patrick and Couturier for him. I think Patrick would explode on a line with Stone and Tkachuk.

I'm confident it's something around Ceci, Anderson

 

[Tuna99]

Bad take. And HNIC crew disagreed when they broke the news. Said it was a fair offer. Don't forget that Duchene got cold for significant stretches of the past few seasons.

Fair offer in a free agent market place is different from what the team thinks is fair. Duhene would get $8 million from every team in the NHL, so fair offer and what the market dictates you get are totally different things.

To me $8 million is low for Duchene because my guess is Montreal would easily pay him $9 million, so if Montreal thinks $9 million is fair, then fair means nothing beyond what the market dictates

 

[Micklebot]

I'm confident it's something around Ceci, Anderson

I really don't get why they'd want either...

Anderson is probably on his retirement contract, but I guess they just need somebody till Hart is ready.

Ceci, well they have lots of depth on D. Why would they be targeting him?

 

[richmh77]

Fair offer in a free agent market place is different from what the team thinks is fair. Duhene would get $8 million from every team in the NHL, so fair offer and what the market dictates you get are totally different things.

To me $8 million is low for Duchene because my guess is Montreal would easily pay him $9 million, so if Montreal thinks $9 million is fair, then fair means nothing beyond what the market dictates

Also very important in all this is the 8th year.
AAV increases in free agency because max term offered is less.

 

[Tuna99]

Also very important in all this is the 8th year.
AAV increases in free agency because max term offered is less.

True, but so many factors with taxes, in Canada, endorsements.

If he gets traded (which is very likely) he can get 8 years from his new club can’t he?

So not sure if Ottawa really has any advantage here beyond exclusivity at this point.

 

[richmh77]

True, but so many factors with taxes, in Canada, endorsements.

If he gets traded (which is very likely) he can get 8 years from his new club can’t he?

So not sure if Ottawa really has any advantage here beyond exclusivity at this point.

Yep I believe as long as hes on the teams roster at the TDL they can then negotiate a 8 year extension. If he gets traded before the deadline, Ottawa has to sign and trade or he goes to the other team with a verbal agreement in place (same as Karlsson) and then signs the extension after Feb 25th.

And I 100% agree, if Duchene doesn’t want to stay he can definitely make up the money in tax savings, bonus structure, etc.

I was just supporting the argument that it’s market value since term is a big factor.

 

[TkachukNorris79]

I hope we can re-sign Stone and Duchene. There are other ways to cut player costs if it's needed, Ryan, Smith, and Boedker are all having decent bounce back years and could likely be moved albeit not for a great return, and in Ryan's case, we'd likely need to eat up to half his salary retained.

If we managed to move out Smith and Boedker with no salary coming back, that frees up 6.25 mil minus the two replacement players (Chlapik and Formenton would combine for around 1.5).

Move Ryan 50% retained, and that frees up another 3.75 mins a replacement player (Batherson would be 730k)

Move out Dzingel, we save 2.1, Brown eats up 925k

That's ~8 mil saved to extend those two, which is well more than enough.

Tkachuk-Duchene-Batherson
Chlapik-White-Stone
Formenton-Tierney-Pageau
Paul-Brown-Paajarvi

Not ideal, but far better than losing both Stone and Duchene

I like this all.

Also, I think you forgot Balcers?

 

[Tuna99]

anybody here for keeping Ceci??

our right side has really stabilized and with JBD on the way, Ceci and Jaros being long term guys on that side you have the size, skating, decent offence and good compete and good attitudes. DeMelo also decent but with him being a FA I can’t see Ottawa paying him to stick around, so I think he’ll get traded next season and JBD takes that spot over with Jaros and Ceci cementing the two pairings.

I’m into keeping Ceci just because he’s a pretty good Dman and with Jaros it stabilizes that entire right side for the next 5-7 years, which would be a solid organizational move.

 

[TkachukNorris79]

I really don't get why they'd want either...

Anderson is probably on his retirement contract, but I guess they just need somebody till Hart is ready.

Ceci, well they have lots of depth on D. Why would they be targeting him?

I think ideally they want someone to split the games with Hart, and have someone reliable (they haven't had that in so many years).

And Ceci makes sense after they said they're interested in dealing a younger Dman for a vet one. Apparently Ceci is a vet. Maybe rushing him will actually pay off for us

 

[SensFactor]

anybody here for keeping Ceci??

our right side has really stabilized and with JBD on the way, Ceci and Jaros being long term guys on that side you have the size, skating, decent offence and good compete and good attitudes. DeMelo also decent but with him being a FA I can’t see Ottawa paying him to stick around, so I think he’ll get traded next season and JBD takes that spot over with Jaros and Ceci cementing the two pairings.

I’m into keeping Ceci just because he’s a pretty good Dman and with Jaros it stabilizes that entire right side for the next 5-7 years, which would be a solid organizational move.

Nah Ive seen enough of Ceci and its time to move on. He will also want more than his current 4.3 mil. a season and I don't think the Sens want any part of that. Paying Ceci 5 mil plus a season for what he brings isn't ideal IMO.

 

[Micklebot]

I like this all.

Also, I think you forgot Balcers?

Your right, I did forget him. Maybe him in over Paajarvi or Paul.

Truth be told, we can afford to trade one of Tierney or Pageau as well. Maybe get some help on the backend with one of them.

Tierney and Ceci for a young RHD? Wonder how much we'd have to add to get Bouchard out of Edmonton...

 

[Joeyjoejoe]

I might be in the minority here and probably more cautious this time around but the whole leaking numbers to the media for Duchene offer feels a lot like The akarlsson scenario, they are essentially getting it out there to the fans that it's "fair market value" and to the average fan that sounds fair, not knowing that star players actual contracts are now bonus money heavy and the owner doesn't have any cash for that and never has.

I hope I am wrong about this. Kind of strange how Stone numbers didn't leak though, they probably already decided they can only afford bonus money to one player and that's Stone, and now they are doing the whole Karlsson "fair market we tried" scheme with Duchene.

This organization has broken me.

 

[TkachukNorris79]

anybody here for keeping Ceci??

our right side has really stabilized and with JBD on the way, Ceci and Jaros being long term guys on that side you have the size, skating, decent offence and good compete and good attitudes. DeMelo also decent but with him being a FA I can’t see Ottawa paying him to stick around, so I think he’ll get traded next season and JBD takes that spot over with Jaros and Ceci cementing the two pairings.

I’m into keeping Ceci just because he’s a pretty good Dman and with Jaros it stabilizes that entire right side for the next 5-7 years, which would be a solid organizational move.

I think they're definitely going to get a young RHD in one of the Ceci/Dzingel deals. It'd be insane not to target that, it's our weakest position in terms of organizational depth.

I've said it before and I have no issue saying it again. The Philly rumours excite me because Phillipe Myers seems like a perfect long-term partner for Hotsam Batcho.

I'd be very pleased with a D core of:

Chabot-Myers (or another RHD we can steal)
Wolanin-Demelo
Lajoie-Jaros as a shutdown pair

With JBD coming in and stealing Demelo's spot eventually.

Also, an important tidbit, other than Demelo they're all currently 23 or younger. That's a really good thing considering it matches the majority of the future forwards (Tkachuk, White, Batherson, Formenton, Balcers, Norris, Chlapik).

I think we have a decent future guys *places way too much confidence in Dorion*

 

[richmh77]

I might be in the minority here and probably more cautious this time around but the whole leaking numbers to the media for Duchene offer feels a lot like The akarlsson scenario, they are essentially getting it out there to the fans that it's "fair market value" and to the average fan that sounds fair, not knowing that star players actual contracts are now bonus money heavy and the owner doesn't have any cash for that and never has.

I hope I am wrong about this. Kind of strange how Stone numbers didn't leak though, they probably already decided they can only afford bonus money to one player and that's Stone, and now they are doing the whole Karlsson "fair market we tried" scheme with Duchene.

This organization has broken me.

I thought the same thing when Kypreos leaked the offer from the Sens but with Dreger tweeting what Duchene is looking for this morning, it seems as though the two sides are in a negotiation and using the media to apply pressure, which means they’re exchanging numbers.

I see this as a positive and with LeBreton flats getting the extension, Duchene obviously has insight on what is going on with ownership and if he’s even considering negotiating, I personally believe it’s good news on the horizon for both players to be signed and also an arena deal (cautiously optimistic that this is all tied together)

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

I wonder what others think of Paajarvi. I've seen him get lumped in with Pyatt a lot this year but I'm not so sure its deserved. I think he suffered greatly for getting anchored with the worst player in the NHL and has flourished since they moved him out and he's had better linemates. He's a 4th line PKer to be sure but will he be worth anything to teams looking to add at the deadline? Will they see that he was anchored by Pyatt all year?

Not expecting much in return but ir'd be sweet to add a 6th or 7th rounder to the draft war chest.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Ceci, well they have lots of depth on D. Why would they be targeting him?

Ceci is a decent veteran and RD. Philly needs to plan ahead with their D prospects: they won't be able to pay all of them and they need better leadership on D. Might as well leverage that depth to address team need.

I can see Philly being interested. It's all about the price point.

 

[Tuna99]

The financials coming into the public arena and the ‘fair’ comments I don’t think make one bit of difference - it all comes down to if he signs or not.

The Sens tried to minimize the damage of the Karlsson trade by making him an offer, but later admitted they decided to trade him in Feb so it all blew up in their face.

Don’t think this team has had a PR win since Alfie left.

 

[Micklebot]

I wonder what others think of Paajarvi. I've seen him get lumped in with Pyatt a lot this year but I'm not so sure its deserved. I think he suffered greatly for getting anchored with the worst player in the NHL and has flourished since they moved him out and he's had better linemates. He's a 4th line PKer to be sure but will he be worth anything to teams looking to add at the deadline? Will they see that he was anchored by Pyatt all year?

Not expecting much in return but ir'd be sweet to add a 6th or 7th rounder to the draft war chest.

I like him as a 12th forward. Good defensive forward, cheap, no issue with keeping him around tbh. If we do trade him, he won't likely get much, but I imagine we could find a taker.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Paajarvi is a good bottom 6 player. You need those. I say keep him

 

[DJB]

I really don't get why they'd want either...

Anderson is probably on his retirement contract, but I guess they just need somebody till Hart is ready.

Ceci, well they have lots of depth on D. Why would they be targeting him?

A capable veteran goaltender to support their young franchise goalie who can step in and be relied upon. The Flyers are probably worried about overwhelming Hart and putting too much pressure on him.

As far as Ceci, i know most around here dislike him but i do think he is more coveted around the league than most of us think. Right hand "two way" d are very hard to find.

Fletcher also is trying to shake up his team and look how he built Minny. He likes dmen so hes looking to add another i guess.

I doubt we are getting a first in the deal as it seems silly for tue Flyers to trade it since its high, but i do see the Sens targeting prospects ala Myers, Morin or possibly Hagg.

 

[DJB]

I might be in the minority here and probably more cautious this time around but the whole leaking numbers to the media for Duchene offer feels a lot like The akarlsson scenario, they are essentially getting it out there to the fans that it's "fair market value" and to the average fan that sounds fair, not knowing that star players actual contracts are now bonus money heavy and the owner doesn't have any cash for that and never has.

I hope I am wrong about this. Kind of strange how Stone numbers didn't leak though, they probably already decided they can only afford bonus money to one player and that's Stone, and now they are doing the whole Karlsson "fair market we tried" scheme with Duchene.

This organization has broken me.

Its easy to get down on this organization and i get it. It sucks, we suck. We have no first etc.

As far as Duchene, Stone and Karlsson. I keep telling myself that there is way more of a chance we sign Stone and Duchene because at least there is ongoing discussion and negotiations as opposed to Karlsson when there was none of that.

I take that as a huge positive.