Speculation: Trade & Free Agency Talk XXXVII

[16thOverallSaveUs]

4 unprotected 1sts to overpay Barzal is pretty steep. We’ve seen teams get bitten in the butt for trading a 1st to far in advance. I don’t feel confident enough in this team, even with Barzal, to pay that price. Can you imagine if Ottawa not only had SJs 1st this year, but their next 2 as well? The league is too wide open with too much turnover from one year to the next. 2 1sts I could stomach

 

[fentonsbrainchild]

I know this isn’t a good comparison but it puts somewhat of a real value on the first rounders:

Would you trade Boldy, Johansson, Kunin and Ek for Barzal?

In an instant

 

[MuckOG]

I know this isn’t a good comparison but it puts somewhat of a real value on the first rounders:

Would you trade Boldy, Johansson, Kunin and Ek for Barzal?

In an instant

You're right, not a good comparison.

Would you trade Tarasenko, Brodin, Horvat, and Rantenan for Barzal?

...or Newhook, Hughes, Petterson, and Matt Tkachuk for Barzal?

Not me.

 

[Dickie Dunn]

Look, the Timberwolves are not good for too many reasons to list but the Joe Smith situation was devastating to the Wolves for years and one of the main reasons they couldn't put a decent team around KG. To me, losing that much depth and potential equity just isn't worth it. I think it is the type of move you make if you truly believe you are 1 stud away from a legit cup run. That's not the Wild currently.

 

[57special]

Offer sheets make the most sense for teams that already have great players, and that are performing well. There is a big difference between losing a top 5 draft pick, and a bottom 5 draft pick.

It's a case of the rich getting richer.

 

[AKL]

You're right, not a good comparison.

Would you trade Tarasenko, Brodin, Horvat, and Rantenan for Barzal?

...or Newhook, Hughes, Petterson, and Matt Tkachuk for Barzal?

Not me.

You wouldn’t trade Brodin or Newhook for Barzal? I mean the rest of those you could actually make a case for, but Brodin and Newhook?

 

[MuckOG]

You wouldn’t trade Brodin or Newhook for Barzal? I mean the rest of those you could actually make a case for, but Brodin and Newhook?

Just Brodin and Newhook, I would.

But Brodin, Newhook, Tkachuk and Petterson for Barzal? No way.

 

[AKL]

Just Brodin and Newhook, I would.

But Brodin, Newhook, Tkachuk and Petterson for Barzal? No way.

Sorry, I misunderstood the conversation

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Giving up 4 1st rounders for guys like Aho, Point, Barzal, etc... is definitely a risk.

Relying on Eriksson Ek, Khovanov, the guy we take in the teens this year or one of the next couple 1st rounders to end up being as good as Aho, Point, Barzal, etc... is also a risk.

To each their own.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

You're right, not a good comparison.

Would you trade Tarasenko, Brodin, Horvat, and Rantenan for Barzal?

...or Newhook, Hughes, Petterson, and Matt Tkachuk for Barzal?

Not me.

to be fair youre using different teams first. what would be the best a team has done with their recent 4 1st round picks. not picking and choosing from different teams just one team. we always say 1C has been a need since the start, a proven 1C in barzal is worth our next 4 1sts in my eyes considering the position he plays and how we wont be top 5 drafting without major luck and that's still more risk than Barzal.

 

[MuckOG]

to be fair youre using different teams first. what would be the best a team has done with their recent 4 1st round picks. not picking and choosing from different teams just one team. we always say 1C has been a need since the start, a proven 1C in barzal is worth our next 4 1sts in my eyes considering the position he plays and how we wont be top 5 drafting without major luck and that's still more risk than Barzal.

OK....we'll go with one team - Winnipeg.

Would you give up Kyle Connor, Patrick Laine, Nicholas Ehlers and Josh Morrisey for Barzal? I still wouldn't.

 

[AKL]

OK....we'll go with one team - Winnipeg.

Would you give up Kyle Connor, Patrick Laine, Nicholas Ehlers and Josh Morrisey for Barzal? I still wouldn't.

Considering what we have and what we need, yes, I would give up the chance that our next four firsts become those guys, for Barzal right now.

Also it doesn’t look nearly as good if you look at almost any team other than the Jets.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

OK....we'll go with one team - Winnipeg.

Would you give up Kyle Connor, Patrick Laine, Nicholas Ehlers and Josh Morrisey for Barzal? I still wouldn't.

For Winnipeg no as they have Scheifele, if those 4 were the wild I would yes as we don't have a Scheifele. we don't even have a hope of a Scheifele unless you want to count Boldy near that potential?

 

[BagHead]

Lack of success of offer sheets have more to do with how incorrectly GM price players than them being overpayments.

A player has his max value to a team in his prime. Therefore, having Austin Mathews get his current contract is fair value.

Habs' bid for Aho was unsuccessful because they underbid on Aho. He is 22. They should have offered 7 years in the 9.5+ million/year range. That would have got him for all of his prime.

But GM live in a price fixed world where they gamed the market to get young-to-prime players at below-market rates, which only results in that "saved" cash flooding into the vastly overpriced UFA vet market.

This creates a disconnect where teams say "Aho is not worth 9.5+ million/year", but those same teams (see Wild) will throw 6 million/year at guy like Zucc, who is worth 20 percent what Aho would be to this team.

Every year every top unsigned young center should get offer-sheeted. It is a no-brainer.

I have no issue with a younger player getting overpaid, when it's relatively well known that they'll be in their prime for the majority of the contract. The problem lies in that the opposing GM also knows that, and probably knows it even better than you, the tendering GM, because they work much more closely with the player day-to-day. We saw this with Shea Weber and the Flyers offer sheet. They offered a contract where they would pay through the teeth to get him. Nashville had to take extraordinary measures to even be able to match it. But they did. You mention that Aho should have been sheeted for an even larger contract. I think that Carolina would have matched literally anything. You don't get players like them on offer sheets because their team's GMs know what they have in that player, and they know that they have to keep them. Instead you get Dustin Penners, guys who are good enough to make you consider sheeting them, but then the player declines too quickly and you've both overpaid and lost picks.

The salary cap has made the tactic highly fruitless, as you can't just offer sheet a guy for an astronomical amount and then bury him if things go wrong. You also brought up UFAs. I don't think UFAs are getting paid strictly because of the lack of offer sheeting RFAs, but certainly that may be one area that causes the over-payment. Instead, GMs seem to suffer from the same thing most people do when their budgets increase: lifestyle inflation. As the cap goes up, the GM thinks "I have all this money to spend, I could get a pretty good player for no additional assets, even though I have to overpay a bit." The best GMs are the ones that realize this and plan against it, instead putting the money into their home grown player's 2nd (and sometimes 3rd) contracts. Let's just hope that's what we've got with Guerin.

 

[DANOZ28]

funny a couple years ago i brought up a what if trade , what if capitals offered 3 - 1sts for kaprizov most laughed and now people are talking about 4 - 1sts for barzal? wow.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

funny a couple years ago i brought up a what if trade , what if capitals offered 3 - 1sts for kaprizov most laughed and now people are talking about 4 - 1sts for barzal? wow.

You know that's kind of the same thing, right?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

OK....we'll go with one team - Winnipeg.

Would you give up Kyle Connor, Patrick Laine, Nicholas Ehlers and Josh Morrisey for Barzal? I still wouldn't.

You can do this exercise with every team in the league in basically any 4 year stretch, and you'll just end up right back where you started, with it being possibly worth it and possibly not. It's futile.

 

[DANOZ28]

as i've said before if you have no faith in your current scouting draft team find a new one!

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Would anybody that's against giving up 4 first round picks for Barzal be against giving up 2 first round picks?

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Would anybody that's against giving up 4 first round picks for Barzal be against giving up 2 first round picks?

Not I. I just think that 4 years down the line a lot of things can change, so 4 first is pretty steep. I wouldn’t be at all mad if we did it, but we’d have to understand that we’re taking on essentially more risk than any team has ever taken on in the salary cap era. For a guy like Eichel, I would give up 4 first without even blinking because even if we get lost out of 2/3 really good players, Eichel is, in my eyes, a top 5 player in the world. Obviosuly, Eichel isn’t an RFA, so it’s not really realistic. Barzal is on pace for 70 points this year, had 62 last year, and while I think he’s got potential to be more than that (he has been more than that), it’s still extremely risky.

 

[MuckOG]

Would anybody that's against giving up 4 first round picks for Barzal be against giving up 2 first round picks?

I would be ok with giving up 2 firsts for Barzal.

 

[wfode09]

I'd do 2 firsts in a heartbeat. I just think four firsts is too big of a gamble. Let's not forget, Barzal was picked #16. Guys can be found all over the draft.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I would be ok with giving up 2 firsts for Barzal.

What about 3 firsts?

 

[DeagleJenkins]

funny a couple years ago i brought up a what if trade , what if capitals offered 3 - 1sts for kaprizov most laughed and now people are talking about 4 - 1sts for barzal? wow.

people laughed because they wanted the player over the picks? sounds the exact same as wanting barzal over 4 1sts

 

[MuckOG]

What about 3 firsts?

Probably not, unless they are lottery protected.